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The Approaching Moment Of Market Capitulation

Can you feel it?
Wednesday, June 15, 2016, 9:42 PM

Today, on Wednesday June 15th, the Fed made its latest 'non-decision' and did not raise interest rates. The stock market first rose but then tumbled, likely indicating that the Fed's magic is all used up. As we all know, that’s about the only thing that’s been keeping the stock market levitated of late.

I’m on record as saying that not only would the Fed not raise rates this meeting, but that their next move, when it arrives, will be to lower rates; not raise them.

Got that? Down; not up. » Read more


M. Primakov/Shutterstock

Will Cryptocurrencies Soar as the Global Economy Falters?

The reasons why they very well may
Friday, June 10, 2016, 5:50 PM

Executive Summary

  • How will increasing capital controls around the world affect demand for cryptocurrencies?
  • The big banks and corporations are embracing the blockchain. Will that make it harder to ban cryptocurrencies?
  • With far less than 1% of the population holding cryptocurrencies, how large is the remaining updside?
  • What the future may hold for bitcoin and its digital brethren

If you have not yet read An Everyman's Guide To Understanding Cryptocurrencies, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we sketched a brief overview of cryptocurrencies and their potential role as a means of transferring and thus preserving capital from depreciating currencies in destabilized economies to more secure currencies/assets elsewhere in the world.

The Rise of Capital Controls Fuels the Use of Cryptocurrencies

As governments actively devalue their currencies (thereby making everyone using the currency poorer), their citizenry with financial capital are forced to seek ways to move their at-risk wealth into other currencies or assets.

China is a prime example of this trend. As the U.S. dollar has soared 20+%, China’s currency has strengthened along with the USD due to the yuan being pegged to the USD. In response, China must devalue its currency to maintain the global competitiveness of its export sector.

Faced with a massive loss of purchasing power, China’s wealthy class has moved their wealth and their families out of China. This flood of capital has pushed up housing prices in favored markets such as Vancouver B.C. and west coast cities in the U.S.

The sums being transferred abroad are non-trivial. Estimates range into the trillions of dollars. Many observers see the rise of capital controls as... » Read more


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Off The Cuff: It's Getting So Bad They Have To Lie

Ever more dirty tricks are needed to keep the masses fooled
Thursday, June 9, 2016, 8:23 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • The B.S. Spewed By The BLS
    • The birth-death model outputs have become a huge joke
  • It's Getting So Bad They Have To Lie
    • We're getting more fake stats to try to hide reality
  • Dirty Politics
    • From the US primaries to the Brexit, dirty tricks are the norm
  • Crony Corporatism
    • How the government is enabling companies to gouge consumers

"When it becomes serious, you have to lie"

~ Jean Claude Juncker, former head of the EU

Statistics that can not possibly be believed by anyone looking at the actual evidence. Election results that in no way match the exit polls. Yet, somehow, the outcomes tend to overwhelmingly favor those on the side of maintaining the status quo.

We are at the point in this global journey where it's getting harder and harder for those in power to hide the weakness, injustice and rot within the system. So, like Juncker, they're resorting to more and more lies, more deception, more backroom swindling to maintain the facade that everything is working fine.

In this week's Off The Cuff, Chris and Mish use recent economic statistics and the elections in the US and the EU to show just how desperate the lies are becoming. Which is an important sign that we're getting close to the point when..

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more


Off The Cuff: Rolling Over

Retail & real estate data showing concerning weakness
Thursday, June 2, 2016, 8:31 PM
  • Rolling Over
    • Auto and trophy homes sales are softening
  • BS From The BLS
    • Its statistics look increasingly falsified
  • Rigged Elections, Rigged Markets
    • We're living with both
  • It's All About The Debt
    • And the system can't take too much more of it

This week Chris and John note with interest the growing number of signs across the corporate landscape that the economy is indeed rolling over. Don't expect to see this supported by the stats issued by government agencies like the BLS, though -- their output is becoming blatantly bastardized with phony 'adjustments', all made to give the impression everything is still rosy.

And while the delusions will continue as long as they can be stretched out by the authorities, Chris and John both expect reality to start intervening shortly -- especially as it relates to the massive debt bubble that has built up.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more



Why The Fed’s Efforts Will End Badly

We've been down this road before. Quite recently, in fact
Wednesday, June 1, 2016, 2:26 PM

It’s no secret that I've taken the contrarian position for seven long (and frequently frustrating) years.

Look, we’ve been down this road before, and the sheer stupidity of our current situation is that we’ve been down it recently enough to know better.  It worked out poorly for us in 2000, again in 2008, and will soon enough again. That's why I'm currently short the US stock market and plan to increase that short position as time goes on.

I'm quite familiar with, and even sympathetic to, the idea that the central banks will not... » Read more


Off The Cuff: The End Of Privilege?

Soon, we will all be in the same boat
Friday, May 27, 2016, 8:45 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:

  • Manipulating The Market To A New All-Time High
    • The case why we may see that soon
  • Falling Corporate Profits
    • Why a new high, if it happens, won't last for long
  • The Pension Time Bomb
    • Why all pension funds are dead men walking
  • The End Of The Protected Classes
    • Soon, we will all be in the same boat

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today. » Read more


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Ignoring Reality Doesn’t Work

The tragedy in Greece continues
Tuesday, May 24, 2016, 7:30 PM

Right now, we humans are busy creating a major eco-tastrophe for ourselves. I’d be a lot more hopeful about our ability as a species to at least notice that, and possibly even do something positive and proactive about it; but ecological destruction is slow, complex, and doesn't change much on a day-to-day basis -- making it poorly visible to the key decision makers. 

My lack of hope stems from our oft-demonstrated inability to rally around workable solutions for the serious predicaments that are blatantly near-term, obvious and straightforward.  Take for example the current Greek debt crisis. » Read more



Off The Cuff: Jackass Leadership

We'd be so much better off with so much less
Monday, May 23, 2016, 4:52 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • Implications Of The Recent Fed Minutes
    • Per usual, good for stocks/bad for gold
  • The Dying Middle Class
    • Sucked dry by central planning policy
  • The Dirty Trick Of Politics
    • Both parties are worth throwing out
  • Jackass Leadership
    • In the Fed, on the Hill, in the White House...


Trying Something New: Live Q&A With Chris

A subscribers-only webinar this Wed at 8pm EST
Monday, May 23, 2016, 3:20 PM

It's been made abundantly clear over the years that many of you would relish the chance to sit down with Chris and ask him anything.'s your chance!  :)

For a long time now, we've been looking for the right platform to make this happen. Of course, we have our annual seminars where you can meet Chris, Becca and and me in person; but that's only once a year and requires a pretty substantial travel commitment. We've been on the hunt for a technology solution that instead offers an affordable yet high-enough quality online experience for us to have real-time discussions with Peak Prosperity members.

We've finally found one we think will work well, and we're excited to try it out.

So we'll be hosting our first-ever live Peak Prosperity webinar this Wednesday night, at 8pm EST. It's only going to be available to our premium subscribers, such as yourself -- and will be offered to you at no cost.

If you're interested in joining this pilot, please register for the webinar in advance by... » Read more



And The Winner Is...

Which nations to keep your investments in
Friday, May 13, 2016, 8:20 PM

Executive Summary

  • The Sole Superpower
  • The Importance of factoring in External Costs
  • The Biggest Loser
  • Which nations to keep your investments in

If you have not yet read Which Countries Will Be Tomorrow's Winners & Losers?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we examined the thesis that geography and demographics largely define a nation’s destiny.

In Part 2 here, we add other potentially game-changing factors that don’t necessarily fit neatly into either category.

Oh, No: America, The Sole Superpower?

Many of those who disagree with America’s military-interventionist foreign policy of the past 15 years will naturally be appalled by any analysis that suggests America’s preeminence is only going to become even more dominant as the rest of the world is destabilized by the inter-connected dynamics driving global disorder.

The good news is Zeihan sees America becoming much less interventionist as it withdraws into greater self-sufficiency—a topic I’ve discussed in previous essays on autarky. (What If Nations Were Less Dependent on One Another? The Case for Autarky (January 2014))

In Zeihan’s view, America’s preeminence is based on its unparalleled assets of geography and more favorable demographics than its competitors. Zeihan sees the U.S.A’s energy resources, dual-ocean buffers, lack of contiguous-border competitors/enemies, culture of innovation and impressive pool of domestic and foreign capital as an unbeatable combination that no other aspirant to superpower status can match.

In his analysis, the intrinsic weaknesses of other nations and alliances such as the Eurozone have been papered over by the flood of capital that has saturated the global economy for the past 20 years.  The source of this ocean of capital is.... » Read more