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Crisis Preparation: What To Do

The key steps to take NOW, before the next crisis hits
Friday, September 22, 2017, 9:34 PM

Executive Summary

  • Why doing nothing is no longer an option
  • Our recommended steps to take for
    • Finances
    • Home
    • Personal Safety
    • Health
  • Plus: lots of links to related resources

If you have not yet read Part 1: When a Storm Approaches available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

What To Do

In response to a prior recent report, member Texas_Engineer wrote:

Once again I reach the final summation of your report in which I am looking for some specific actions to take and all I see is a summary of how bad things are going to be. I detect a constant drumbeat that precious metals may rise but still see no clear recommendations for what we should do.

Fair criticism. I write so often about these actions that I feel like I am being overly repetitive and sometimes leave them out.

I should not assume either that people have read them before, or that there’s no advantage in repeating them.

Here’s what I think everybody should do, regardless of circumstances... » Read more

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Off The Cuff: The Economy Is A Junkie

Dependent on hits of ever more debt -- until it dies
Thursday, September 21, 2017, 7:14 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

  • Hey, Did We Just Declare War On North Korea?
    • Trump's UN speech stuns the world
  • Unpacking The Latest Fedspeak
    • Much more talk than action
  • The Junkie Economy
    • Dependent on hits of ever more debt until it dies
  • The High Cost Of Lacking Resilience
    • Harvy, Irma & Maria are teaching us a lesson in real-time

This week Chris and John tackle the latest Fed announcement. Yellen's talk of tightening/normalizing -- to borrow from common parlance -- is really a "nothingburger" until the world's other major central banks curtail their stimulus efforts.

The world economy is still receiving $125 billion in liquidity injections every month. This, of course, has destroyed the integrity of the markets and turned all investors into speculators -- as whatever the central banks decide to do next is the only thing that will matter to prices.

As we have been warning for years, this will all end badly once the central banks have either destroyed their respective zombie economies or their fiat currencies (if not both). 

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
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Off The Cuff: It's A Mad, Mad, Neo-Con World

Current policy is making the US more isolated
Monday, September 18, 2017, 6:36 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris discusses:

  • It's A Mad, Mad, Neo-Con World
    • US foreign policy is becoming increasingly reckless
  • The Beginning Of The End For The Petrodollar?
    • China is challenging the dominance of the dollar
  • Gold: The Oppressed
    • Perhaps the most suppressed asset in modern history?
  • Upcoming PP events
    • Come join us in New Orleans and/or Munich

Chris flies solo again this week to make sense of the many geo-political risks popping up as the long-time axis of global stability becomes more and more wobbily and destabilized. There is much in US policy that appears increasingly reckless, pitting America increasingly against the world's other major powers.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
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Smart Strategies For Building & Managing Your Cash Savings

Options for protecting purchasing power
Friday, September 15, 2017, 8:47 PM

Executive Summary

  • Is it better to hold cash in savings/checking accounts, or securities accounts?
  • Where will the dollar likely from here?
  • What will likely happen with retirement accounts?
  • Ways to diversify your cash risk

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Cardinal Sin Of Investing: Permanent Impairment Of Capital available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The Role Of Cash In The Informal Economy

In stagnating formal economies burdened by over-regulation, high taxes and financialization, one of the few bright spots for employment and entrepreneurism is the informal or cash economy.  The more stultified and elite-dominated the economy, the larger and more vibrant the informal economy.  In some highly regulated, high-tax European nations, up to 30% of the economic activity is underground/cash.

The elimination of central bank currency will not eliminate the informal economy. Rather, the participants in this sector will adopt non-central bank issued forms of cash—precious metals, coins, other nations’ paper money, perhaps even digital currencies such as bitcoin or its gold-linked cousins (Bitgold, etc.)

Those with little income often do not have bank accounts, as the fees are costly. Eliminating cash will hit the poor who earn money in the informal economy especially hard. Though the poor are essentially powerless in our influence-is-auctioned-to-the-highest-bidder system, this could change once the working poor who benefit from the cash economy are pushed even deeper into poverty by the banning of cash.

That might spark... » Read more

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WATCH NOW: Dangerous Markets Webinar

FREE to PP.com's premium subscribers
Wednesday, September 13, 2017, 12:14 PM

This week's Dangerous Markets webinar  is free to PeakProsperity.com's enrolled members.

Here is the replay video of the event: » Read more

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How To Deal With Our Dangerous Markets And Failing Future

Now is the time for prudent action
Friday, September 8, 2017, 11:25 PM

Executive Summary

  • Controlled markets can't be controlled forever
  • Confidence is beginning to fail, even at the top
  • The leading indicators to monitor closely
  • The reason to get excited about gold & silver again

If you have not yet read Part 1: Who’s Going To Eat The Losses? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

As we recently covered in this week's special webinar, the geopolitical tensions across the world, alone, should have created some sort of ‘risk off’ response in the equity markets.  With China, Russia and North Korea all increasingly at odds with the US for a wide variety of reasons, it’s very hard to make a case that Everything is Awesome!

Instead, it’s very easy to make the case that the world is on the brink of a period of destructive trade wars, if not actual 'hot' wars. 

Again, that alone should be introducing some uncertainty, some ‘risk off’ behaviors by which we mean some sort of a selloff in equities. But that’s just not the case.

In fact, the current stock ramp-up is the second longest without even a 3% sell-off in all of US equity history.

It's my firm belief that these calm markets do not represent the collective wisdom of millions of independent traders and investors.  They are instead the result of both direct and indirect support of said markets by monetary authorities and their proxies. That is, the central banks and the big banks they actually represent and look out for. 

But this lack of volatility will have a very painful cost some day. No different than in a political crisis where an oppressed people finally rise up, the suppression of market volatility will spill over and... » Read more

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Off The Cuff: The End Of Buying The Dip?

Things are shifting in the markets, ending many trends
Thursday, September 7, 2017, 7:47 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Axel Merk discuss:

  • Bye, Bye Fisher
    • The Fed's Vice Chair steps down
  • Bye, Bye Yellen?
    • Axel thinks Fisher's departure signals Janet Yellen will be out, too
  • No Decision-makers Left
    • Everyone is on the same train when it comes to the "markets"
  • The Future Of The Dollar, Euro, Yuan & Gold
    • Old correlations no longer hold

Chris and Axel cover lots of ground in this week's Off The Cuff with lots of recent seismic moves -- China's yuan-for-oil-for-gold announcement, the latest ECB statement, the resignation of Stanley Fisher (which may presage Yellen's exit when her term is up in early 2018. Things are shifting quickly in the markets, geo-politically, in the world economy -- even in the weather. Axel warns that the long-standing relationships we've all become accustomed to are fading, and that we need to be prepared for different outcomes from what we're used to.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
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WATCH: A World Of Trouble Webinar

FREE to PP.com's premium subscribers
Wednesday, September 6, 2017, 2:55 PM

This week's webinar, A World Of Trouble, is free to PeakProsperity.com's enrolled members.

Here is the replay video of the event: » Read more

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Off The Cuff: Quantifiying The Impact Of Hurricane Harvey

Likely the most costly US storm -- ever
Thursday, August 31, 2017, 7:32 PM

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Charles Hugh Smith discuss:

  • The Danger Has Not Yet Passed
    • Levee spillovers and other risks are still in play
  • The Impact On The Oil/Gasoline Market
    • Will be much larger than folks were originally expecting
  • The Costs To Rebuild Will Be Massive
    • Harvey will likely be the US' most expensive storm to-date
  • How To Prepare For Similar Disasters In The Future
    • Take action early. Don't lose urgency once the sun comes out

In the midst of his hour-by-hour analysis of the situation in the Gulf in the aftermath of Harvey, Chris takes time to talk with Charles Hugh Smith about the repercussions of this mega-storm, both short and long-term.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
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The Coming Shale Debacle

How to position for the coming industry carnage
Friday, August 25, 2017, 9:21 PM

Executive Summary

  • How bad will "bad" get?
  • What will happen to world supply and prices?
  • Who is most vulnerable?
  • How quickly could this occur?

If you have not yet read Part 1: Why The Shale "Miracle" Is Becoming A "Debacle" available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

How to Position Yourself

Okay, here’s the summary so far.  The shale companies are burning cash and they’ve done so every year. At every oil price point. And there’s nothing in the data to suggest that will change this year, or next.

So the first question to ask is: When will investors wake up and stop funding these companies?

This should be immediately followed by: How much financial and economic damage will then result? And how soon afterwards?

Well, if the companies stop drilling because their funding dries up, the decline rates of the various shale basins would translate into the immediate and sudden loss of a huge amount of oil production.  

How much?

According to the EIA the decline rates each month for the three biggest shale fields would be between 53,000 and 158,000 barrels per month.

Taken together, one month of not bringing any new wells online for these three fields would result in a drop in oil output of -314,000 barrels.  And a similar (but slightly smaller) drop the next month.  And the month after that, the same thing.  And so on.

After just 3 months the US would be down more than -1,000,000 barrels per day when all the other shale fields are taken into account. 

Now that’s extreme, and it’s very unlikely that drilling would just suddenly stop one day. But the point here is that... » Read more