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Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (Doomsday clock)

How Close?

Close enough to merit taking action today
Friday, October 26, 2018, 5:45 PM
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Executive Summary

  • What the key crash indicators are telling us
  • The timeline to the next recession
  • How far will the fall be?
  • Time for action

If you have not yet read Part 1: Is The Long-Anticipated Crash Now Upon Us?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

How Close Are We To A Full-Blown Crash?

We’re always looking at the current market data for a reason to send out an ALERT. We send them out extremely rarely, so it takes a preponderance of evidence to convince us to issue one. 

At the end of Part 1, I walked through the tepid signals that junk bonds, US Treasurys, and gold are currently giving. There's no sign of panic (yet) in those bellwhether markets.

On the other hand, a rising dollar is what you’d expect to see if there’s some sort of a crisis going on. First because of the “flight to safety” aspect, and second because it represents speculator money fleeing foreign hands and coming home:

Given this, it’s somewhat encouraging that gold has not tanked over the past few weeks, because it has pretty much been trading as the "anti-dollar" up until now. But over the past two weeks, that correlation has broken, and both gold and the dollar have risen together.

Of interest to those of us holding gold is that there finally has been (...)

 

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