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    Off The Cuff: Declining Energy Consumption Shows Recession Is At The Doorstep

    Transport fuel volumes & prices are falling fast
    by Adam Taggart

    Tuesday, September 10, 2019, 8:39 AM

    59

    In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Art Berman discuss:

    • Understanding The Importance Of Crack Spreads
    • Diesel Consumption Is Down 500,000 Barrels/Day Since January
    • The Shale Oil Reckoning Is Approaching
    • Key Slides From Art

    Petroleum expert Art Berman explains how crack spreads (the difference between what refiners pay for crude oil and the price they receive for their refined product) and oil demand volumes are indicating the global economy is slowing markedly. Economies need energy to function. Less energy consumed = lower growth and output.

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com’s other premium content.

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    ALERT: Time To Relocate

    Why today's pace of change is driving me to seek better safety
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, September 6, 2019, 3:40 PM

    78

    Executive Summary

    • Why it’s far better to be a year early than a date late when preparing for crisis
    • Why I’m issue a rare Alert
    • What’s causing me to release this Alert now
    • My relocation criteria

    If you have not yet read Part 1: It’s The Pace Of Change That Kills You, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    As we say often here at Peak Prosperity: When it comes to preparing for crisis, it’s far better to be a year early than a day late.

    I’m perfectly willing to be early on timing, as long as I get the direction right.

    For example, I invested heavily in gold and silver beginning in 2001.  My first purchases of gold were at $300/oz.  Silver at $4.53/oz.

    I was early. Prices didn’t really start taking off until 2006.

    The bulk of these purchases happened after the sale of my house in 2003 when I had ~$250,000 of gains I had to do something with.  I rolled all of it into bullion.

    I was early on selling my house, too. The housing market didn’t roll over until 2007.

    Was I early on calling a housing bubble?  Yep.  Was I correct?  Again, yes.  Looking back does it matter that I was early to both the housing correction and precious metals rallies? Not at all.

    Here again I can state with equal conviction that we each need to be prepared for massive changes coming.  If that sounds vague it’s because they are going to impact virtually everything and every system we hold dear.

    Political.  Ecological.  Financial.  Cultural.  Social.  Our lives.  People we know.  Our communities.  All of them.  Every. Single. One.

    Massive debts, insufficient resources, rising pollution, collapsing food webs, and a near incomplete ability to have a proper national or global dialog about any of these things.  That’s what is setting the trajectory.

    Now, I very rarely send out Alerts.  An Alert is triggered if and only if I come across information that causes me to personally take action.

    Which I why I’m now issuing an Alert that after nearly 20 years of living in the same geography, I’m relocating. Recent events have accelerated to the point that I’m no longer comfortable in my current location.

    My top priorities: more land, a more robust local community that shares my passion for resilience, and state government that has greater respect for the individual and personal liberty.

    Specifically, I’m placing the greatest value on… (Enroll now to continue reading)

     

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    The Layoff Survival Handbook

    What to do before, during and after a layoff
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, August 30, 2019, 3:36 PM

    1

    Executive Summary

    • How to reduce your odds of being laid off
    • How to prepare for a layoff
    • Essential steps to take during the layoff process
    • Post-layoff success strategies

    If you have not yet read Part 1: Mass Layoffs Are Back. Are You At Risk?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    Whether or not you perceive your job to be in imminent jeopardy, there’s a series of sensible steps to take now to defend yourself against becoming the victim of a layoff.

    These steps will not only reduce your risk of being let go, but they’ll boost your performance, the value you offer an employer, and increase your satisfaction with your career. What’s not to like?

    And should you be unable to avoid a layoff, you’ll be far better offer for having put these preparations in place beforehand. Especially if we re-enter a period of mass layoffs like 2007-2009, when millions of other sacked workers will be suddenly competing for the few existing job openings out there.

    The best way to begin protecting the security of your job is to…  (Enroll now to continue reading)

     

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    (Another Bonus!) Off The Cuff: Why Negative Rates Won’t Work

    The logic supporting them is just plain wrong
    by Adam Taggart

    Wednesday, August 28, 2019, 10:46 AM

    19

    In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:

    • Why Negative Rates Won’t Work
    • Why We Won’t Bounce Out Of The Next Recession
    • The Rich & Poor Alike Will Suffer In The Next Downturn
    • The Only Official ‘Plan’ B Is Panic At This Point

    Recorded two weeks ago, we’ve only just now had the space to run this podcast. In it, John Rubino does a masterful job breaking down why negative rates are unnatural for a reason — they simply don’t do anything positive for the economy.

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com’s other premium content.

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    Becoming Tomorrow’s Hero

    Act now to get yourself safely and smartly positioned
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, August 23, 2019, 5:00 PM

    17

    Executive Summary

    • Clarify the specific outcomes you think are most important to prepare for
    • Models of regeneration (vs consumption/extraction)
    • High return-on-investment steps everyone should take
    • Make of yourself a model to inspire others

    If you have not yet read Part 1: Save The World By First Saving Yourself, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    I worry that almost nobody is ready for what’s coming.

    Not financially, not psychologically or emotionally. And not with respect to their current lifestyles.

    My decade-plus tracking the data leads me to conclude that:

    • Food insecurity will be part of my future.
    • Energy abundance will diminish over time
    • The financial system has enormous losses baked right in and they cannot be avoided
    • Our local city/town or communities will feel the impacts of the loss of purchasing power coursing through their veins. This ‘simplification’ will be very destructive to those unready or unable to adapt.
    • Either humans voluntarily stop putting too much carbon into the atmosphere or nature will force that outcome under far less favorable terms.
    • Travel will become quite limited and perhaps become an unaffordable luxury within the next couple of decades.

    Do you share these?

    If so, I don’t want to panic you. Quite the opposite. I want you to realize that while these are potential eventualities you can’t control, you can do plenty about how they’ll impact you.

    These are the smart responses virtually anyone can take that will offer you tremendous advantage against…. (Enroll now to continue reading)

     

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    (Bonus!) Off The Cuff: Understanding The Nefarious Nature Of Negative Interest Rates

    Welcome to bizarro world
    by Adam Taggart

    Friday, August 23, 2019, 8:29 AM

    7

    In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Wolf Richter discuss:

    • How Negative Interest Rates Work
    • Their (Many) Nefarious Unintended Consequences
    • Too Much Capital Is Getting Pushed Into Higher Risk
    • The High Cost Of Our Relentless Pursuit Of “Growth”

    It’s been a surprisingly busy summer developments-wise in the world. We’ve had so much fresh content covering it all that’s it’s been a challenge to publish everything in a timely manner. Some releases get delayed in order to rush breaking news out to you.

    Here’s a podcast we recorded with Wolf Richter a few weeks back that tackles the important topic of negative interest rates. They are exploding around the world — over $19 trillion in debt is now trading at a negative rate (!).

    The US is one of the only sovereign bond markets left trading in positive territory. And the Fed has resumed an easing cycle, so that, too, may not last for much longer.

    What are the implications of a bizarro world below the 0%-bound? They are unnatural and fraught with toxic unintended consequences, as Wolf explains here.

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com’s other premium content.

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    Off The Cuff: The Structural Supply Shortage Of Silver

    It's still too low to be profitable for many producers
    by Adam Taggart

    Wednesday, August 21, 2019, 4:27 PM

    20

    In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Jeff Clark discuss:

    • Why The Recent Gold Breakout Is For Real
    • Why Lower Interest Rates Will Boost Gold Demand
    • Why Silver’s Price Will Need To Go Much Higher
    • Why Investors May Find PMs Hard To Obtain During The Next Crash

    We delayed this podcast a week in order to rush the one with Axel Merk out right after the latest Fed announcement. But it’s no less important.

    Precious metals analyst Jeff Clark explains why the new bull market in precious metals is ‘for real’, and why higher prices and scarcer supply in store — especially in the case of silver.

    Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com’s other premium content.

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    Gold Signaling Crisis

    Both Gold And Copper Warn: “Crisis!”

    Is a Comex failure coming?
    by Chris Martenson

    Tuesday, August 13, 2019, 5:45 AM

    36

    Gold has spiked higher in the overnight markets, now above $1535.  Copper continues to weaken.  That combination says that gold is not sniffing out an inflationary burst from some future burst of economic growth. If that were the case, copper wouldn’t be tanking here. Take a peek at these two charts. Let’s your eyes wander…

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  • Insider

    Defending Against The Global Currency Crisis

    What to plan for as the printing presses resume at full speed
    by Chris Martenson

    Friday, August 9, 2019, 10:34 PM

    35

    Executive Summary

    • The perverted bond market (nearly $20 trillion in negative yielding debt) is signalling an epic coming crisis
    • A painful global recession is increasingly guaranteed in the coming 12 months. But that’s not the largest risk…
    • A massive global currency crisis is brewing. One that could very well topple a number of today’s nations.
    • Why hard assets offer one of the best defenses against how all this will unfold

    If you have not yet read Part 1: The Hard Truth, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

    The larger part of this story concerns the effects that excessive financialization has had on the globalization of markets.

    One very large part of this has involved the explosion of carry trades — i.e., borrowing in one place to invest in another.

    An example would be borrowing US dollars to buy New Zealand government bonds. The “carry” part of that trade is that borrowing in US dollars might cost you 2% per year, but New Zealand bonds are paying out 5% — providing you with a 3% ‘carry.’ Lever that up, and do that trade all day long, with as much volume as your lenders will allow.

    In the past, it made a lot of sense for a Japanese pension fund to sell its yen (where the local 10-yr government bond is sporting a negative yield) and buy euros to plow into Italian 10-year debt which has a positive yield. Easy money, right?

    Well, it’s all fun and games until you get clocked by a currency reset that wipes out all your positive carry.

    The trend up until now has been one of increasingly large bets denominated in US dollars spread out all over the globe.

    But the hugely concerning warning sign of a massive reset is now flashing, and it’s…   (Enroll now to continue reading)

     

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    Markets In Turmoil

    What's driving this week's bloodbath
    by Chris Martenson

    Monday, August 5, 2019, 7:21 AM

    67

    Remember in 1Q19 when Apple’s earnings came in a bit low and the Yen/NZ dollar pair blew out as a result? Remember in August 2015 when China surprised the world with a -3% yuan devaluation and ““markets”” across the globe were rattled?

    Well, it has happened again.

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