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    How To Ride The Gold (& Silver) Bull

    Tremendous gains lie ahead for those investors who don't screw this opportunity up
    by Adam Taggart

    Thursday, August 29, 2019, 10:48 AM

Gold & Silver webinar banner

The prospects for further gold and silver price appreciation has rarely looked this strong.

Declining — heck, negative! — interest rates around the world. And central banks, including the all-important Federal Reserve, publicly committed to bringing them even lower going forward.

Recession warnings are multiplying everywhere: Slowing global growth. Inverted yield curves galore. Exploding government and corporate indebtedness.

And with stocks and real estate suddenly showing vulnerability, it’s perhaps little surprise why gold has finally vaulted above the trading range its been mired in since 2013. Capital is suddenly starting to look for safe havens.

And despite the nice jump in price gold, silver and the mining stocks have enjoyed so far this year, we’re still in the early innings (perhaps still the first!) of this new precious metals bull market. If history is any guide, the real action still lies ahead.

In fact, if the early 2000s bull run is any guide the average gold stock will multiply four times from current levels — and the better ones could go up 10 times or more.

But you’d be amazed how many investors can miss out on the majority of big gains, or even lose money, during a precious metals bull market. Those just sitting on a position of bullion will not reap the prodigious returns a smartly-positioned investor will.

Intelligent allocation is everything.

And just as important as buying is knowing when to sell. (Hint: It’s not at the top of the market.)

So, how can you position to take full advantage of this new gold & silver bull market? And not screw up this rare opportunity?

We’ve assembled top experts on resource investing to share their recommendations in our upcoming free webinar on next Wednesday, September 4, 2019 @ 7pm ET/4pm PT

Featured faculty include Rick Rule, president & CEO of Sprott US Holdings and renowned resource investor;  Chris Martenson PhD, economic analyst and co-founder of PeakProsperity.com; and Brien Lundin, editor of the world’s oldest precious metals newsletter and producer of the world’s longest-running investment conference.

You can register for this free webinar by …

Note this webinar aired live on Sep 4th. But you can watch a replay of the full event for free here below:

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29 Comments

  • Fri, Aug 30, 2019 - 10:17am

    #1
    nedyne

    nedyne

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 14 2012

    Posts: 53

    Gold miners manage to lose 42% as gold rises 86% over 12 years

    It would be very interesting if you could comment on the following in the webinar.

    The largest gold mining ETF is GDX. According to VanEck, its inception date was 05/16/06, and in the ~12.5 years to year-end 2018, GDX had a cumulative total return of… -42.43%. So it lost more than one third of its value in 12.5 years when gold rose from $688.5 to $1282 (daily closing values for the same period), an 86% cumulative increase. This means that if you had put $100 in gold on GDX’es inception date, 12.5 years later you’d have 3.23x as much as if you had put those $100 in GDX (not counting storage fees or brokerage fees, but dividends are taken into account, and with storage and insurance fees beeing as low as 0.12% yearly in BullionVault, we can neglect these).

    So my question is, how come gold mining stocks have been such a losing investment over gold bullion for over a decade, when they are way more risky?

    Obviously the guests will say that they are in the business of picking stocks, not in the business of investing in GDX, so maybe they have done much better than GDX, but that is highly suspect from the point of view of survivorship bias. I prefer to look at broad indexes, or even better, ETFs that track broad indexes. However, I know next to nothing about gold stocks, so I’m genuinely curious about their thoughts and I’m open to the idea that my very uninformed analysis could be way off.

    I’ll be on the webinar.

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  • Fri, Aug 30, 2019 - 11:31am

    #2
    Lions

    Lions

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    Joined: May 19 2018

    Posts: 18

    1+

    Knowledge before action

    I’m glad this webinar is being held

    I have communicated to Gold newsletter that my friends and I know which gold stocks to buy because of their publication. However, nobody knows what to do after they buy them.

    I believe in knowing what you’re doing before you do it rather than finding out by losing a ton of money

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  • Fri, Aug 30, 2019 - 11:52am

    Reply to #1

    davefairtex

    Status Diamond Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 3156

    2+

    gold stocks suck

    neodyne-

    They really totally suck.  Except during a bull market move.

    Supposedly, the reason why the miners have been such value destroyers is because the insiders paid themselves well, and they made some terrible acquisitions at the top of the market, really overpaying for the juniors they acquired.

    Chris might also suggest that the declining ore grades and rising energy prices means it takes more energy to get out less ore, so its just harder and harder to make money in this field as time goes on.  (That’s in the crash course, forget which chapter).

    But during the bull market moves, they do extremely well.

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  • Fri, Aug 30, 2019 - 1:03pm

    #3
    ao

    ao

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 908

    3+

    PM baseball

    Why buy risky paper assets when there’s plenty of money to be made with physical with much less risk for the average schmuck like me.  Palladium has been an excellent trade even though I was cautious and exited perhaps a bit too early (but to paraphrase Chris, better a couple months early than a couple weeks too late).  Nevertheless,  a triple ain’t bad.  Rhodium has been a spectacular home run trade that has rapidly rounded third and is approaching my home plate exit point.  Next up to bat?   Platinum … soon to be followed with gold getting another solid base hit and then silver driving the runs home.  Isn’t baseball fun?

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  • Fri, Aug 30, 2019 - 2:32pm

    #4
    Eric

    Eric

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    Joined: Jun 10 2019

    Posts: 19

    1+

    Side comment

    Just wanted to share this comment I came across YouTube earlier. I’m sure you can find dozens of comments exactly like this one. The next five years are really going to be an eye opener for many.

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  • Fri, Aug 30, 2019 - 4:16pm

    Reply to #1
    nedyne

    nedyne

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 14 2012

    Posts: 53

    1+

    Re: Gold miners manage to lose 42% as gold rises 86% over 12 years

    Hi Dave,

    Chris might also suggest that the declining ore grades and rising energy prices means it takes more energy to get out less ore, so its just harder and harder to make money in this field as time goes on. 

    Well oil seems unlikely to be a substantial part of the problem here, because WTI was worth $71 at GDX’es inception and $45 on Dec 2018, so if anything, that should have helped gold stocks. But yes, ore grades obviously decline, and the other issues you mention could add further pressure.

    I don’t think I can time bull moves, so if it’s not an asset class that I can trust to outperform gold in the long term enough to justify the gut-wrenching volatility, I think I’d pass.

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  • Fri, Aug 30, 2019 - 5:44pm

    Reply to #4
    ao

    ao

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 908

    2+

    what Einstein said is infinite

    Human stupidity.  The writer of that comment is the perfect example of the 50% of the population that has below average intelligence and tends to be wrong about almost everything but absolutely believes they are right, despite abundant evidence to the contrary.

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  • Fri, Aug 30, 2019 - 6:03pm

    Reply to #4
    robie robinson

    robie robinson

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Aug 25 2009

    Posts: 881

    2+

    Einstein would be correct if...

    ….all the ignorants were idiots, however, there are many idiotic billionaires and I am not one of them…

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  • Fri, Aug 30, 2019 - 8:53pm

    Reply to #4
    ao

    ao

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 908

    7+

    non-discriminatory

    In truth, we’re all ignorant but stupidity is non-discriminatory and transcends all barriers … socioeconomic status, educational level, political orientation, age, gender, race, you name it.

    In related matters, it drives me nuts to see people in our community complaining about not having any money and then lining up for handouts (from both the private sector and from governments) with their smart phones, tattoos, piercings, pink hair, cigarettes, etc., buying unhealthy and costly processed food when healthier and cheaper food is readily available, and displaying an almost pathological aversion to working a readily available job, or two jobs, or an additional weekend job, or some kind of side hustle.  Then, along comes a (hopefully legal) immigrant with barely a buck in his pocket but he is willing to work long and hard hours, is frugal and discerning in his lifestyle, and strategic in his life planning, and in not too many years, he’s doing rather well for himself.

    Where’s the grit, where’s the guts and determination?

    Discipline, sacrifice, and deferred gratification have become dirty words in our society.  Dignity, character, and wisdom have become increasingly rare commodities.

    It’s sad to see and I don’t see it getting any better in the short term.

     

     

     

     

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  • Sat, Aug 31, 2019 - 7:06am

    #5

    timeandtide

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 03 2010

    Posts: 41

    Gold - "a barbarous relic" (John Maynard Keynes)

    Right now, I think Gold is a sell for several reasons:

    1. From a chart technical perspective Gold fell in 5 waves from Sep 2011 to Dec 2015. I am referring to Elliott waves. A 5 wave fall implies another 5 wave fall after a 3 wave correction. That has either been achieved or is very close to it. Another 5 waves down from here targets the high $600 area which also coincides with a major low in October 2008.
    2. As long as the US Dollar remains high, it is hard to see Gold taking off from here. Gold was falling within the period that the dollar was making its most substantial gains from July 2011 to January 2016. Since then the Dollar has been travelling sideways and is still only a little above the January 2016 high. Gold has moved substantially higher since late November 2016 in a 3 wave upward corrective movement while the Dollar first went higher then fell in a downward correction until January 2018. I see Gold falling from here and the Dollar continuing upwards. The point is that the Dollar is the safe haven, not Gold.
    3. Sentiment towards Gold is extremely high at the moment. That Gold should go up a lot is apparently a “no-brainer”. My contrarian instincts get very twitchy when everyone is backing the same horse.
    4. The Commercials (producers) are extremely short Gold against the small traders who are long. The Commercials are usually right.
    5. Various governments have been accumulating gold – the Chinese in particular. Governments have a poor record on gold purchases.
    6. The sentiment in the Bond market is at an extreme of confidence that prices will continue to rise (despite yields going negative in many countries). If the bond market falls (which I expect), what do you think will happen to the dollar? It will go up as yields rise. Again, in that scenario of a rising dollar, I struggle to imagine how Gold will rise as well.
    7. If Treasuries fall so yields rise (and they do not have to rise much), there will be devastation in equity markets and governments who are the biggest borrowers of all will either have to raise taxes or sell assets. Raising taxes will hardly be an option if unemployment is rising and corporations are struggling with crazy debt loads (mostly used to buyback their already overpriced shares). The most likely asset to be sold by governments will be Gold.

    It is not a pretty picture.

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  • Sat, Aug 31, 2019 - 7:56am

    Reply to #1

    Mark_BC

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 30 2010

    Posts: 298

    I don’t know much about equities but I have heard that “they” are able to print up shares  out of thin air, just like they do with the precious metals ETF’s, which then dilutes supply of shares and suppresses equity prices. Apparently when push comes to shove, investors may not actually hold the real equity shares they think they do. But I haven’t investigated the validity of this idea.

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  • Sat, Aug 31, 2019 - 8:28am

    Reply to #1
    TheManiac

    TheManiac

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    Posts: 1

    1+

    I don’t want to get into the mathematics of it all but true answer is quite obvious and you have already stated it: GDX is the biggest mining ETF and holds a broad range of different miners.

     

    Operating a successful mining company is very difficult because there are a bunch of different variables come together and determine your success. Holding a bunch of different miners therefore puts you in a difficult position. For every good mining company a large ETF holds there are probably twice as many bad apples that have higher ASICs, lower grades, operate in countries that are unstable or have strong currencies, have bad luck (e.g. accidents) or simply make bad management decisions. The chance to hold bad companies relative to good ones therefore increases exponentially with the size of your portfolio. Those mining companies  usually have a far lower upside during a precious metals bull market (due to higher cash costs and debt) and a far bigger downside during a bear market.

     

    I’d never put money into a gold ETF. Gold bull markets are far to short to let the gains of your good mining companies be drawn down by the bad ones. If you want a leveraged exposure to gold you should learn what factors are important when it comes to the mining sector and analyze them yourself or you could also search for a good analyst who sells subscriptions, I’ve never done that personally and have been quite successful on my own but I’m considering buying Katusa’s subscription since he’s well connected in the sector and has the ability to visit promising projects himself.

     

    I hope I could help and wish you good fortune in your investment prospects.

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  • Sat, Aug 31, 2019 - 1:53pm

    #6
    Steve

    Steve

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    Posts: 18

    6+

    Gold, Fiat and Social Security

    There was a time when our contributions to social security were in Federal Reserve Notes that were representative of quantities of gold and silver.  Then, like a light switch, our money was no longer the representation of precious metals.  And all of the contributions that had been made into the social security system were no longer representative of gold an silver.

    A 65 year old person who worked and contributed to social security since the age of 18 has paid into that system for 47 years.  Just think if every month, there was just one ounce of gold purchased with those contributions and stored into a vault until retirement.  At 65 years of age, that worker would have 564 ounces of gold to his name.  Who has that gold now?  And who has that fiat promise in the social security system?

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  • Sat, Aug 31, 2019 - 6:55pm

    Reply to #5
    ao

    ao

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    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 908

    4+

    my problem

    Yes, I could see gold being a sell, T-E-M-P-O-R-A-R-I-L-Y.  It’s been on a pretty good ride so a bit of cooling off is to be expected.  One of the analysts I respect the most said he could see it retracing down to 1380 before resuming a strong upward surge.  But that same analyst called a top in palladium at about 1300 and then expected it to drop like a stone.  It actually far exceeded that figure and then retraced a bit but has largely held its ground.  So much for the accuracy of analysts.

    To address some of your points.

    1. The Elliot wave predictions just haven’t been that accurate in my experience.  They’ve repeatedly had to bend the waves to fit the reality.

    2. Gold and the USD had traditionally been inversely correlated but, in recent years, that correlation has largely been disrupted by market manipulation.

    3. Yes, sentiment towards gold is high but only in certain smart money circles.  Among the masses of dumb money in the US at least, gold is completely off their radar screen or even outright hated.  When the sentiment of the masses moves strongly towards gold, that’s when I’d be most concerned about holding it.

    4.I’m not cognizant of the data in this area and you could be right but this may simply be hedging which could turn around quite quickly.

    5. Some governments (like the UK) do have a poor record on gold purchases (or, actually, sales). But others have not.  Powerful governments (such as China and Russia) have the power to create circumstances favoring their purchases.

    6. Again, the problems in the bond market aside, that pure inverse correlation between gold and the USD seems to be considerably less reliable than in the past.

    7. Since when are governments fiscally responsible, lol.  Hard to predict on this one.

    I appreciate your point of view.  Unfortunately for me, I’ve become a gold bug.  I’ll admit it.  I just like the shiny, heavy, noncorrodible stuff with a 5,000 year track record beyond what I rationally should. It makes me all warm and fuzzy inside in a way that big numbers on a screen or paper statement, green pieces of paper in my wallet  stock certificates, bonds, and real estate never have.  Silver too but when it tarnishes, I lose some of that loving feeling.;-)

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  • Tue, Sep 03, 2019 - 8:46am

    #7
    Steve

    Steve

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    Joined: Jun 27 2009

    Posts: 18

    Gold Banking

    Does anybody know of any banking (checking/savings) entity where a person in the USA can deposit greenbacks and have them stored (and valued) in gold?

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  • Tue, Sep 03, 2019 - 8:53am

    Reply to #7
    Belmontl

    Belmontl

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Aug 23 2009

    Posts: 20

    Vaulted

    http://www.Vaulted.com

    easiest way to hold gold (Royal bank of Canada) and have liquid

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  • Tue, Sep 03, 2019 - 2:23pm

    Reply to #7
    Steve

    Steve

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 27 2009

    Posts: 18

    Glintpay.com for parking cash into bullion

    Have you seen/tried glintpay.com?  It is a gold based MasterCard and charges an .5% transaction fee.  Load it up with as much money as you like.  Convert to gold with a 0.5% transaction fee.  Spend it with the MasterCard.  Withdraw at any ATM that accepts MasterCard.  Your gold is physically held in Switzerland.

    This looks like an interesting, no hassle way to buy and sell gold or store your cash in gold for the cost of two 0.5% transaction fees.

    Wondering what the IRS will think about this.

    Has anybody tried this?

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  • Tue, Sep 03, 2019 - 2:32pm

    Reply to #7
    Steve

    Steve

    Status Member (Offline)

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    Posts: 18

    Link to Glintpay launch on youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8uPTOxno0A&feature=youtu.be

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  • Wed, Sep 04, 2019 - 3:48pm

    #8
    Jeffleonard90@gmail.com

    [email protected]

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    Posts: 39

    2+

    Negative Rates

    Negative interest rates will be the predominant driver in higher metal prices.  This is a “it’s different this time moment” as far as I am concerned.  Where will all the yield seekers park their money?  Probably not into negative yielding bonds.  Not an expert here, but it seems obvious.

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  • Wed, Sep 04, 2019 - 5:59pm

    #9

    sand_puppy

    Status Platinum Member (Online)

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 1945

    1+

    Sprott Mining ETFs

    Sprott Gold Miners ETF  (SGDM), and,

    Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF   (SGDJ).

     

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  • Thu, Sep 05, 2019 - 6:40am

    #10
    dryam2000

    dryam2000

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 06 2009

    Posts: 255

    3+

    David Rosenberg video

    He is a highly regarded financial analyst & economist by both the mainstream folks and the non-mainstream.  He used to be Merrill Lynch’s chief economists many years ago.  His analysis always tends to be fairly level headed.  I have not heard him talk much about gold in the past.  This video encapsulates many of the strongest arguments for owning gold.

     

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  • Thu, Sep 05, 2019 - 7:26am

    #11

    Chris Martenson

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 4711

    3+

    Re: David Rosenberg video

    Thanks for that.  I think he’s absolutely correct for looking at negative interest rates as the main driver for gold.

    I said as much myself last night in the webinar.

    Here’s my pet peeve about this video.  It also tells you how far we have to go yet in this gold bull market.

    The producers used stock Getty images for “gold” that are obviously not gold at all.  These people don’t even know what gold looks like!

    Notice the sharp fracture patterns and wrong textures.

    These are driveway rocks spray painted gold.  They are a cartoonish version of the real world sloppily assembled by someone who lacked knowledge, time, or both.

    The funny part is that these images get used all the time by the MSM. I have no idea why, except complete ignorance, a lack of editorial care, or an intention to deceive.

    One of those things.  Hopefully not all three at once.

    It’s not like real pictures of real gold nuggets are hard to come by.  Here are a few:

    See the rounded surfaces?  That’s what a completely ductile, malleable metal will yield when you stress it or apply pressure over time.  It does not shatter into the hard mineral shapes seen in the examples the video used.

    As I said a pet peeve.

    But it’s also important to those of us who value our ability to observe, remember and correctly apply accumulated knowledge over time.

     

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  • Thu, Sep 05, 2019 - 11:47am

    #12
    ao

    ao

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 04 2009

    Posts: 908

    gold nugget value

    Good call Chris.  An interesting aside is that if one has gold nuggets, one should never sell them for spot or less without checking with collectors.  A good friend of mine who has collected and sold rocks and minerals (including gold and silver) for decades told me that many types of nuggets have a collectible value and collectors will often pay multiples of spot value for them (i.e. 3 times or more, depending upon the specimen).  His specialty is Michigan gold and he knows his cookies.  Guess who’s going prospecting next year now that I’m retired.:-)  BTW, I attended a recent rock and mineral show in our area to visit with my friend at his stall.   The bustling activity there seemed to suggest that the market for these collectible rocks and minerals in our area is quite healthy.  The show was packed and people were buying … and these are, for the most part, not people with a lot of discretionary income.  It was an interesting discovery, the opposite of what I would have expected.

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  • Thu, Sep 05, 2019 - 11:55am

    #13
    dryam2000

    dryam2000

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 06 2009

    Posts: 255

    Webinar recording?

    Anyway to hear a recording of the webinar? I’ve been on vacation detached from the world and then had some family issues requiring attention yesterday, and missed this thread until today.

    Thanks

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  • Thu, Sep 05, 2019 - 3:56pm

    Reply to #11
    Ophiuchus

    Ophiuchus

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 31 2017

    Posts: 5

    Chris's Private Vaults?

    Hey Chris: Are these from your private vaults! 🤔🤗🤗

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  • Thu, Sep 05, 2019 - 5:39pm

    Reply to #10

    KugsCheese

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 01 2010

    Posts: 841

    She is wearing gold and silver.   Inform #MeToo!   Mining?  Carbon!   Women wanting to be attractive?   Throw them in prison.   Taxpayers foot the the bill for 1984 and worse.

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  • Thu, Sep 05, 2019 - 5:45pm

    Reply to #8

    KugsCheese

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 01 2010

    Posts: 841

    NPV = fv / (1+i)^n.    Even in the US real rates are negative which is why we have the largest stock market bubble ever (electorate would rather close their eyes than confront Congress).   So as ‘n’ time proceeds the NPV value flip-flops more than Trumpster.  #CardiacArrest #War

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  • Sun, Sep 08, 2019 - 2:40pm

    #14

    newsbuoy

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 10 2013

    Posts: 138

    Canada’s billionaire Frank Giustra

    Love you guys but I’d rather look at Daniella.

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  • Tue, Sep 10, 2019 - 5:49am

    #15
    capesurvivor

    capesurvivor

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 12 2008

    Posts: 215

    1+

    Kudos to the PP team

    I am somewhat familiar with the info in the Webinar but I learned new things from each presenter. Many thanks Adam and Chris for presenting a dens and enjoyable seminar. Free, even!

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