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    Here’s Everything We Should Be Doing Now To Beat The Coronavirus

    What Chris would do if he were in charge...
    by Adam Taggart

    Thursday, April 23, 2020, 7:25 PM

Chris has been frequently critical of our leaders’ bungled responses throughout the coronavirus pandemic.

So today he turns the tables on himself and asks: Well, what would *I* do if I were in charge?

He walks through the major policies he would embrace to address both the health and economic crises we’re currently dealing with. Everything from resourcing the national covid-19 response, to keeping the public better educated and informed, to pursuing a bottom-up (vs the current top-down) stimulus program, to building a new vision for the post-pandemic future.

He also shares the continued challenge Peak Prosperity faces from the mainstream media, who remain committed — by intent or by laziness — to painting our non-partisan science-based analysis as crackpot fringe hucksterism. The latest example of which comes from The New York Times who should, quite frankly, be better than this shoddy style of ‘journalism’.

Whatever the reason for their low regard, we will continue to produce these daily videos for as long as they’re needed. Or put in other words, for as long as the major media outlets continue to fail to provide intelligent, honest, unbiased analysis of the breaking developments that are impacting our lives.

Stay safe! Oh, and as always, keep working on your garden.

STARTING TODAY!

GET THE FREE DOWNLOAD of Peak Prosperity’s book, Prosper!, which prepared thousands in advance for today’s health & economic crises:

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168 Comments

  • Thu, Apr 23, 2020 - 8:05pm

    #1
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    I would do the same thing, So why dont they?

    All logic would show that I would do the same thing.  Why don't the people in charge?  Is everyone corrupt?  or are people that stupid?   Well, my experience tells me both.  So, yeah.. dumb and criminal.  I don't expect much.  I have lowered my expectations for mankind.   So much so, I am not sure their demise would not be a good thing.

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  • Thu, Apr 23, 2020 - 9:57pm

    #2

    sofistek

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2008

    Posts: 735

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    The Brazil study

    So, HCQ could still be a game changer. It's good, though, that you said there was no randomisation but you perhaps didn't place as much importance on the fact that none of the patients was known to have Covid-19, despite mentioning it. Given all of the possible problems, I don't think this is a study which should point to HCQ's being effective, though it doesn't do the opposite either.

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  • Thu, Apr 23, 2020 - 10:13pm

    #3

    sofistek

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2008

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    Sweden

    Sweden is 10th in the per capita deaths list. It has way more deaths than other countries with cases in the same ballpark. Its cases seem to be growing exponentially, though not quite as quickly as a few weeks ago.

    So Sweden doesn't seem like a good example to follow. But, maybe if they'd all worn masks, it might have been.

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  • Thu, Apr 23, 2020 - 10:32pm

    #4
    DaveDD

    DaveDD

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    Excellent video

    Hi Chris,

    Excellent video!

    With respect to the “left-right” model: being raised in a very strict religious community in the Netherlands, I could not help noticing a large similarity between this conservative community and groups of leftist students I met during my years at University: both groups were very similar in their dogmatism and inflexibility, and both made me feel equally ill at ease.

    So, reading this article in 2019 really struck a chord. It was based on research that supported and explained my own observations and conclusion based on interactions with these groups:

    New research provides evidence that extreme partisanship on both the political left and right is related to cognitive inflexibility. Our findings, which appear in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, indicate that people’s political identity is influenced by how they process basic information”.

    Btw: the conclusion I drew in my youth, is that you cannot argue with people who perceive reality differently from you. I do respect individuals, but I try not to get too much involved with groups of likeminded people because I find them truly scary.

    🙏

     

     

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  • Thu, Apr 23, 2020 - 11:42pm

    DaveDD

    DaveDD

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    Posts: 171

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    Re: Sweden

    I agree. The CFR is consistently increasing. I would not be surprised if they are still in their “cluster-cluster-cluster” stage. Why?

    When you go to the worldometer site you will notice an extreme  seasonality for Sweden in the data for new cases and deaths. This tells me that indeed there is a cultural aspect because the highs and the lows are rather extreme. It also indicates how infectious this virus is. Because the number of daily new cases still rises, more and more people are getting infected and more and more people will die.
    If the data of New York has any thruth in it, the IFR (infection fatality ratio = number of deaths/number of infected) is 0.5%:

    Please note: the IFR of the flu is less than 0.02%. Also note that the honey badger virus is at least 25 times more deadly than the flue.

    This would mean that 30.000 people will die in Sweden in a relative short timeframe. It is “just” a different choice they make and maybe their hospital system will be able to cope with it.

    In the case of the US this would mean ~ 1 million deaths in a short time if the “Swedish model” is applied. Probably more due to the less healthy US population.

    So, the Swedish model might work for Sweden, but for larger countries it will most definitely lead to utter chaos and mayhem.

    Take care!

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 1:06am

    #6
    Chad Petzer

    Chad Petzer

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 21 2020

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    11+

    financial guru, early pandemic warner?

    So when did those two things become a bad thing???

    Chris, I have been following your channel since January.

     

    I came across a video upload from another guy over at NoNonsenseForex just a short while ago.

    I have been following VP over at NNFX for 2 years and he hadn’t uploaded a video in months, then he came along and uploaded a video named “making the most of a bear market” - (I am in no way affiliated to him,) but in this video, he credits you and your channel, with the work you had been putting out on coronavirus for his early preparation.

     

    VP went on to recommend people pop over to your channel if they want to be 5 weeks ahead of what mainstream media is saying,

     

    The crazy thing is, he is over in Las Vegas, I’m down in South Africa, and we both had early warnings because of you, I had already been watching your channel, when he posted a video recommending people see you.

     

    I didn’t need to go buy vitamin C, multi vitamins, specialty teas and herbs and spices during a storm of human beings inside stores and pharmacies when the panic buying hit, and the craziest thing of all this is

    Right now, South Africa is entering its 5th week of total national lock down, and only 1 week ago, the very store I got to buy my supplies from months in advance (February), was closed down for mass cleaning.

    26 of the stores employees tested positive for covid 19, all of which Asymptomatic, which apparently came as a shock to the pharmacy chains leadership somehow. They must have been reading Diones shoe blog because it came as  no surprise to me as a consequence of mass panic buying and similar weird early stage rules where people in stores were not allowed to wear PPE.

     

    so this is when early warning hits home. Stores around you are closing daily because of essential staff all coming out positive with covid.

     

    This is just in response to the early warning critique, don’t even get me started on how beneficial knowing a pandemic was about to hit my country was for arranging my positions in trading.

    So a sprinkle of financial guru in there, is more than earned too. Your videos saved me a lot of money I’d have other wise been down on right now.

     

    When I became aware of the situation in January, I immediately started paying attention to early warning signs on my trading system, and took HIGH note of them.

    its funny how we all forgot that brexit happened this year too, which was the first shock to the market, and while everybody thought the brexit wobble was the worst for the year, I was preparing for a total disaster on the stock exchange. And well, considering oil producers are paying people to take oil away from them, I’d say that’s quite disastrous,

     

    In no way did you speak about, or endorse gold and silver affiliates, the stock exchanges or what kind of positions people should be taking, in any of those markets.

     

    However your work, allowed those with fast adjustment times, to Buckle up and get ready for the poop storm that was on its way to a financial market near you.

    So, from me anyway.

    A huge thank you.

     

    I hope one day, I get to see NoNonsenseForex and Peak Prosperity do a video together.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 1:34am

    sofistek

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2008

    Posts: 735

    0.5%?

    DaveDD, what figures are you using? We don't know how many people have been infected in New York state but the Worldometers web site shows 268,581 cases, with 20,861 deaths. That works out to around 8% death rate.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 2:07am

    #8
    Expat2Uruguay

    Expat2Uruguay

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 24 2020

    Posts: 7

    HCQ study results from Brazil

    I'm unable to find a link to the results from Brazil about HCQ that you talked about. Could you please provide a link for that study result? You said you got it in a tweet, but is it backed up with an article, or a report?

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 2:43am

    #9
    French connexion

    French connexion

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Mar 26 2020

    Posts: 200

    3+

    The safest ship la ChloroQueen

    For information: l’Institut Pasteur has published at least one new paper where they have done testing in l'Oise where an outbreak (cluster) caused this département (area) to become a hot spot. The press article went on to say that they found over 20% of the population with anti-bodies for COVID-19. Other areas of France have vitually no herd immunity. The other thing that was mentionned was that they tested two different types of tests for anti-bodies - both worked extremely well and that commercial production could now be started.

    My thought for this morning goes to a video that my wife shared - it depicts an African woman, speaking in French, pleading to her brothers and sisters to treat COVID-19 like Malaria. From her experience she goes into some of the details: fever, sweating, sore throat, coughing... she says it's just like Malaria. I saw it once - smiled, as it is almost childlike, because we know the two are very different and I put the idea aside - until this morning.

    If you are African and you have had Malaria - it comes back when you do not expect it like a zona, herpes - so what do you do?

    You take your Malaria pills and it gives you relief - it goes away again.

    She keeps on insisting that it's no big deal - you treat it like Malaria - take a hot drink with a pressed lemon, honey and it goes away.

    Dr Didier told us this. He was born in Africa. People think nothing of taking HCQ to get over a bout of malaria.

    A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

    In French  Un tiens vaut mieux que deux tu l'auras.  One which is yours is worth more than two that you might have.

    The simple question: WHAT IS WRONG WITH US? (that we know this but don't practise this?)

    So to close: Chris - Trump or No Trump (I am a bridge player)  I fall into another category - the mistrustful guy who has seen so many devious people, think Machiavel  types, that when I see someone like Dr Didier strut and fret his hour upon the stage I rise up and cheer a very loud ovation.

    I encourage anecdotal "témoignage" - it is all we have for the present time - our authorities TPTB have polluted the information circuits - our job is to expose and fetter them out.

    African témoignage, I hope this works:

    https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&ik=359427bfe9&attid=0.1&permmsgid=msg-a:r7360564885119990937&th=171ab7829a9ecc7b&view=att&disp=safe&realattid=171ab7774bcd4d2637e1

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 3:24am

    DaveDD

    DaveDD

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    Re: 0.5%?

    Hi Sofistek,

    There are two indicators. The Case Fatality Ratio, or CFR, is the ratio of the deaths and the diagnosed cases. So you are right: for NY that would be something around 8%.

    The arguments of the naysayers tend to be that this is not worse than the flu. They use the CFR of the flu, 0.1%-0.2%, and they say that the number of infected with SARS-CoV-2 is higher than the number of diagnosed. For example,

    • 21% of the New Yorkers have antibodies they say, in other words, ~4 million New Yorkers have been infected.
    • There are 20,861 deaths, so, 20,861 x 100%/4million = 0.5%.
    • Next they compare this number, 0.5%, with the CFR of the flu 0.2%.

    But,... the ratio involving the number of infected is not the CFR, it is the IFR, the Infection Fatality Ratio. They compare apples and oranges. If you do it like this, you also have to compare agains the IFR of the flu

    A recent flu pandemic was the 2009 H1N1. The IFR of this flu is estimated to be 0.02% [source], while the CFR  is less than 1%. So assuming that the CFR for the 2009 H1N1 equals the CFR of the seasonal flu, for New York,

    • CFR: 8% versus 0.2%       --> COVID19 is 40 times deadlier (For H1N1 CFR<1, this would be between 20X (US) and 8X),
    • IFR: 0.5% versus 0.02%  --> COVID19 is 25 times deadlier than H1N1.

    Even if the 2009 H1N1 was a "mild virus" leading to ~200.000 deaths, and we would correct for it (multiply CFR and IFR by a factor of 3), SARS-COV-2 is still 10 times deadlier than the normal flu with yearly between 290.000 and 650.000 estimated deaths.

    I notice that the CFR and the IFR are continuously mixed up in (social) media. The IFR is very difficult to estimate. The CFR is less complicated to measure: the percentage of the officially diagnosed persons that die due to any symptom of the disease.

    Have a great day!

     

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 3:26am

    #11
    French connexion

    French connexion

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    Huiles essentielles

    Here is a video that I found.

    Oddly smokers seem to do much better than non smokers in not getting infected.

    I have not heard anyone talking about this but for our family (and many French) we use essential oils (homéopathie) to protect from seasonal viruses. Before you say ridiculous - I have been very prone to brochitis (worst case), angine, bad colds etc

    There are several essential oils which have anti-septic qualities - which I take orally. It was recommended by la Companie des Sens (à Lyon) to takefor COVID-19 (applied to your wrist - I take it orally) 50/50 Ravintsara, Tee Tree. It was also recommended Laurier Noble for inhalation - you can put it in a diffuseur in your room.

    Points from the video:

    41% of the people who frequented the high school (lycée) school children, teachers, other personnels - were infected by COVID-19

    In the families of the students 11% of the persons presented anti-bodies COVID-19.

    5% of this population - mostly young people - had to be hospitalized . There were no deaths from the people who frequented this school.

    More than 85% of people who complained about loss of taste or smell were infected by the virus.

    For smokers the risk of getting infected was 75% inferior than non-smokers.

    So - my message - don't smoke, take something which will sterilize the genome in its passage through mouth and throat. Alderberries for others, wink, wink, nod, nod.

    He says that we need at least 60% before herd immunity can be considered attained.

    Last point - I have heard that the French "vaccine" being studied is in the form of a patch - think nicotine patch and tuberculosis scratch.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 3:34am

    #12
    French connexion

    French connexion

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    Joined: Mar 26 2020

    Posts: 200

    Maybe I got that wrong

    I am have got that wrong. Small Pox scratch?

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 4:04am

    davefairtex

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    IFR vs CFR

    DaveDD--

    Speaking as one who has continuously mixed IFR and CFR up...thanks for the clarification!  I won't make this mistake again.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 4:24am

    #14

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

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    People are feeling the oppression

    Interesting perspective!

    You are not allowed to dissent on-line because you will be censored or in person because you will be arrested.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 4:26am

    #15

    davefairtex

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2136

    7+

    staying TF home?

    In warm-and-humid climates, the virus - most likely - does not transmit much outdoors.  My evidence is observation in the place where I live.  We have few cases, and fewer deaths.

    People in these climates can probably go outside without much of a problem.

    Especially in sunlight, which as we know now, also kills the virus pretty fast.  And if people wear masks, going outside under these conditions is most likely no problem at all.

    And - lo and behold - here's a reference to a paper from China that suggests that outdoor transmission is quite rare.  People got the virus indoors, and mostly, at home.  And that's cold-ass China.

    https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-transmission-chinese-study-shows-covid-more-likely-spread-indoors/

    Although this finding was expected, its significance has not been well recognised by the community and by policy makers. Indoors is where our lives and work are in modern civilisation. The transmission of respiratory infections such as SARS-CoV-2 from the infected to the susceptible is an indoor phenomenon

    So we could say, stay TF at home really means, you should avoid staying indoors as much as possible.

    That suggests beaches, parks, sidewalks, are all just fine.  Especially if its a warm day.

    Doesn't that sound nice?  Going for a walk, or a bicycle ride, or a hike, on a warm spring day?  It helps even more that we know now, "outside" is not how people catch the virus.

    Who knew?

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 4:30am

    LesPhelps

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Apr 30 2009

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    People believe what the prefer to believe

    All logic would show that I would do the same thing.  Why don’t the people in charge?  Is everyone corrupt?  or are people that stupid?

    Years ago, Peak Prosperity ran a survey of their members personality types.  As I recall, something like 84% of the people who responded to the survey fell into the INT* personalities under Myers Briggs personality types.  INT* personality types are atypical in that they make decisions based on a rational, rather than emotional basis.  INT*s make up something like 4% of the population.  The rest of the population essentially make decision, at least partially, on non-rational inputs.

    People prefer to believe what the prefer to be true.
    -Sir Francis Bacon

    Or, if you prefer:

    Most people like to hear good news about their bad habits.

    My wife and I are INTJs.  She's borderline and I'm hardcore INTJ.  That modest difference, alone, makes consensus more difficult to achieve.

     

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 4:34am

    #17
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

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    Re: They must have been reading Diones shoe blog

    LOL

    I like the cut of your jib, Chad!

    After my stint as financial guru and after my most recent stunt as a pandemic early warning Youtube grifter, my plan is to become an energy healer of celebrities.

    Hopefully more remunerative than writing a shoe blog.

    Seriously, thanks for the morning laugh.

    Even more seriously, the shocks in the global oil markets have me quite concerned.  The path I see?  (downward price shock) --> (supply shock as wells shut in and capital withdrawn for E&P) --> (eventual upward price shock)

    There are only so many shocks a precariously derived system of credit can absorb before it breaks...

     

     

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 5:03am

    drbrucedale

    drbrucedale

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    Joined: Sep 06 2009

    Posts: 123

    1+

    Two Brazilian Studies and a Compilation of Research Results

    Expat:

    Here are two Brazilian studies and a compilation of various research efforts on Covid-19 that may be of value to you and the PP community.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.07.20056424v2

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/5qm58cd4fneeci2/2020.04.15%20journal%20manuscript%20final.pdf?dl=0

    Here is the compilation of results.

    https://docs.google.com/document/u/0/d/1O6Cls-Oz2ZAgJuyDbnICEGjMvQPEyM-aaXARUomR9Ww/mobilebasic

    Bruce

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 5:11am

    #19

    LesPhelps

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Apr 30 2009

    Posts: 635

    5+

    No thank you. I don't think so.


    Don Henley and Vince Gill on Henley's "Cass Country"

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 5:19am

    #20
    Hladini

    Hladini

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    Joined: Dec 28 2011

    Posts: 226

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    Chaos V. Integrity

    Adam and Chris, great job once again.  I absolutely loved the tutorial on the left-right agnosticism.   Personally been there since 2009.  The diagram using Integrity as the top and Chaos as the down, or as the antithesis of Integrity was absolutely brilliant!  Loved it.

     

     

     

     

     

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 5:28am

    #21
    French connexion

    French connexion

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Mar 26 2020

    Posts: 200

    In English

    https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/hydroxychloroquine-azithromycin-and-covid-19response-to-magagnoli-medrxiv-2020-2/

    A pre-print with article in English - 19 page reference to their study

     

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 5:43am

    #22
    French connexion

    French connexion

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Mar 26 2020

    Posts: 200

    Remdesivir

    Where there's smoke:

    https://twitter.com/raoult_didier/status/1253634488346836994/photo/1

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 5:46am

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

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    Posts: 2065

    10+

    Oppression is one thing but stupid oppression is beyond the pale

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 5:47am

    stoff75

    stoff75

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    Joined: Apr 21 2020

    Posts: 15

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    Regarding Sweden

    I agree. The CFR is consistently increasing. I would not be surprised if they are still in their “cluster-cluster-cluster” stage. Why?

    When you go to the worldometer site you will notice an extreme seasonality for Sweden in the data for new cases and deaths. This tells me that indeed there is a cultural aspect because the highs and the lows are rather extreme. It also indicates how infectious this virus is. Because the number of daily new cases still rises, more and more people are getting infected and more and more people will die.
    If the data of New York has any thruth in it, the IFR (infection fatality ratio = number of deaths/number of infected) is 0.5%:

    21% has antibodies, population 19.4 million, 20.800 died: 2.08/(19.4×0.21).
    Please note: the IFR of the flu is less than 0.02%. Also note that the honey badger virus is at least 25 times more deadly than the flue.

    This would mean that 30.000 people will die in Sweden in a relative short timeframe. It is “just” a different choice they make and maybe their hospital system will be able to cope with it.

    In the case of the US this would mean ~ 1 million deaths in a short time if the “Swedish model” is applied. Probably more due to the less healthy US population.

    So, the Swedish model might work for Sweden, but for larger countries it will most definitely lead to utter chaos and mayhem.

    Sweden's strategy is different in that the end goal is to end up with as few deaths as possible and not imposing restrictions that can't be upheld for months. Unfortunately we've had some setbacks - we failed at protecting the elderly enough - but we're still below the curve. One big problem for us here is the lag in data reporting which is terrible, if you look at our statistics you'll see that during saturday/sunday all numbers go down and then a big spike on monday. Another issue regarding most statistics site is that you can't go back and revise the number for a specific day, so it looks like we have a big spike in deaths when what actually happened was that the paperwork stacked up and was handled a specific day. But if you look at the official statistics for Sweden they go back and revise it all the time so it's more even. (https://fohm.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/68d4537bf2714e63b646c37f152f1392)

    And so far I think the cultural difference with Swedes managing social distancing so well is a big reason we haven't been in worse shape than we are. However, now that the heat is coming people are going out more so we still may end up with more restrictions...

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 5:48am

    #25

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1045

    6+

    Have you ever imagined how you would handle this.

    I think its almost incomprehensible.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 6:06am

    DaveDD

    DaveDD

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    Joined: Sep 08 2019

    Posts: 171

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    Re: Regarding Sweden

    Hi Stoff75,

    Thanks for the background info regarding the registration in the weekend. This would imply that my suggestions about the cultural aspects are falsified. I truly hope that this will work out. I can imagine that after all is said and done, useful lesson will be learned for fiture pandemics.

    Btw: I discovered that I can understand written Swedish!

    Take care!

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 7:11am

    #27
    Tony McPherson

    Tony McPherson

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    Joined: Mar 23 2020

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    Tony McPherson said:

    Instead of chaos I prefer the lower end of the scale to be called corruption.  I appreciate the information from this site.  I believe that informed people can make decisions based on good information.

    I live in south Georgia which has one of the highest infection rates around(659 cases for every 100,000 people 5.7 percent fatality rate).  We have gone back to work because I have 11 employees who are dependent on their paychecks.  We are working in open spaces and everyone has a mask which was part of the job before the virus.  We are working as safely as possible but will continue to work as long as there is something to do.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8198961/How-small-Georgia-city-one-worst-coronavirus-hotspots-country.html

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 7:35am

    #28

    thc0655

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    This seems reasonable

    https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation

    ...Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19.

    The recent Stanford University antibody study now estimates that the fatality rate if infected is likely 0.1 to 0.2 percent, a risk far lower than previous World Health Organization estimates that were 20 to 30 times higher and that motivated isolation policies.

    In New York City, an epicenter of the pandemic with more than one-third of all U.S. deaths, the rate of death for people 18 to 45 years old is 0.01 percent, or 11 per 100,000 in the population. On the other hand, people aged 75 and over have a death rate 80 times that. For people under 18 years old, the rate of death is zero per 100,000.

    Of all fatal cases in New York state, two-thirds were in patients over 70 years of age; more than 95 percent were over 50 years of age; and about 90 percent of all fatal cases had an underlying illness. Of 6,570 confirmed COVID-19 deaths fully investigated for underlying conditions to date, 6,520, or 99.2 percent, had an underlying illness. If you do not already have an underlying chronic condition, your chances of dying are small, regardless of age. And young adults and children in normal health have almost no risk of any serious illness from COVID-19.

    Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding.

    We can learn about hospital utilization from data from New York City, the hotbed of COVID-19 with more than 34,600 hospitalizations to date. For those under 18 years of age, hospitalization from the virus is 0.01 percent per 100,000 people; for those 18 to 44 years old, hospitalization is 0.1 percent per 100,000. Even for people ages 65 to 74, only 1.7 percent were hospitalized. Of 4,103 confirmed COVID-19 patients with symptoms bad enough to seek medical care, Dr. Leora Horwitz of NYU Medical Center concluded "age is far and away the strongest risk factor for hospitalization." Even early WHO reports noted that 80 percent of all cases were mild, and more recent studies show a far more widespread rate of infection and lower rate of serious illness. Half of all people testing positive for infection have no symptoms at all. The vast majority of younger, otherwise healthy people do not need significant medical care if they catch this infection.

    Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem.

    We know from decades of medical science that infection itself allows people to generate an immune response — antibodies — so that the infection is controlled throughout the population by “herd immunity.” Indeed, that is the main purpose of widespread immunization in other viral diseases — to assist with population immunity. In this virus, we know that medical care is not even necessary for the vast majority of people who are infected. It is so mild that half of infected people are asymptomatic, shown in early data from the Diamond Princess ship, and then in Iceland and Italy. That has been falsely portrayed as a problem requiring mass isolation. In fact, infected people without severe illness are the immediately available vehicle for establishing widespread immunity. By transmitting the virus to others in the low-risk group who then generate antibodies, they block the network of pathways toward the most vulnerable people, ultimately ending the threat. Extending whole-population isolation would directly prevent that widespread immunity from developing.

    Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections.

    Critical health care for millions of Americans is being ignored and people are dying to accommodate “potential” COVID-19 patients and for fear of spreading the disease. Most states and many hospitals abruptly stopped “nonessential” procedures and surgery. That prevented diagnoses of life-threatening diseases, like cancer screening, biopsies of tumors now undiscovered and potentially deadly brain aneurysms. Treatments, including emergency care, for the most serious illnesses were also missed. Cancer patients deferred chemotherapy. An estimated 80 percent of brain surgery cases were skipped. Acute stroke and heart attack patients missed their only chances for treatment, some dying and many now facing permanent disability.

    Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures.

    The overwhelming evidence all over the world consistently shows that a clearly defined group — older people and others with underlying conditions — is more likely to have a serious illness requiring hospitalization and more likely to die from COVID-19. Knowing that, it is a commonsense, achievable goal to target isolation policy to that group, including strictly monitoring those who interact with them. Nursing home residents, the highest risk, should be the most straightforward to systematically protect from infected people, given that they already live in confined places with highly restricted entry.

    The appropriate policy, based on fundamental biology and the evidence already in hand, is to institute a more focused strategy like some outlined in the first place: Strictly protect the known vulnerable, self-isolate the mildly sick and open most workplaces and small businesses with some prudent large-group precautions. This would allow the essential socializing to generate immunity among those with minimal risk of serious consequence, while saving lives, preventing overcrowding of hospitals and limiting the enormous harms compounded by continued total isolation. Let’s stop underemphasizing empirical evidence while instead doubling down on hypothetical models. Facts matter.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 7:49am

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1190

    8+

    Uruguay

    I reviewed the Brazil study and efforts to suppress it in yesterday's thread, #33.  There is a link to the paper preprint;

    https://www.peakprosperity.com/coronavirus-debunking-the-hydroxychloroquine-controversy/#comment-638187

    This study is very strong evidence that HCQ works - one has to understand that the lack of randomization was due to the fact that the two groups (HCQ regimen or no) were determined by the patients willingness to accept the drug regimen.  It was this factor that ended up defining the groups.  The doctors were actually trying to save lives, not perform a study.  It's very clear that they saved lives in their elderly population;

    HCQ regimen given < 7 days after symptom onset:  Hospitalization rate = 1.17 %

    HCQ regimen given > 7 days after symptom onset:  Hospitalization rate = 3.2 %

    No HCQ regimen:  Hospitalization rate = 5.4 %

     

     

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 7:52am

    #30

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2410

    12+

    Moving into the containement phase

    The Data Is In... Stop The Panic & End The Total Isolation*

    Authored by Scott Atlas, M.D., op-ed via The Hill,

    The tragedy of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be entering the containment phase.   Leaders must examine accumulated data to see what has actually happened, rather than emphasizing hypothetical projections.

    Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19.

    Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding.

    Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem. [delaying herd immunity].

    Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections.

    Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures.

    [A] clearly defined group — older people and others with underlying conditions — is more likely to have a serious illness requiring hospitalization and more likely to die from COVID-19.

    Summary

    • Strictly protect the known vulnerable,
    • self-isolate the mildly sick, and
    • open most workplaces and small businesses with some prudent large-group precautions.

    *  *  *

    Scott W. Atlas, MD, is the David and Joan Traitel Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and the former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center

    ----------

    *and I see that THC0655 just posted this above.  Great minds think alike.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 8:02am

    Tony

    Tony

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    1+

    On same topic (In French)

    https://www.valeursactuelles.com/clubvaleurs/monde/manipulations-politiques-interets-etrangers-enquete-sur-le-vrai-faux-remede-miracle-contre-le-covid-19-du-president-de-madagascar-118593

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 8:46am

    #32
    erikhess

    erikhess

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    10+

    fact #1

    The article that is part of this thread states "Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19." They are referring to the exact same Stanford study that CM ripped apart a few videos ago" So if the 1st fact, is blatantly in error, we need to omit it from influencing any decisions.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 8:46am

    davefairtex

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2136

    8+

    stop the panic

    Oh for heaven's sake.  This is what I've been trying to say for ... days now.

    Except somehow - oh I don't know.  I couldn't quite say it nearly as well.  Or I didn't have the data.  Or something.

    Anyhow, yes.  Seems right to me.

    We followed Communist China down the rabbit hole on this one.  I vote we climb back out into the sunlight again.  Take prudent precautions for high risk individuals, offer free testing for anyone with symptoms, and treat immediately with the anti-virals that we know work - on an outpatient basis - and emerge back into the sunlight.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 8:47am

    French connexion

    French connexion

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Mar 26 2020

    Posts: 200

    Nice catch Tony

    Very good Tony!! Do you speak French? Effectively I spoke about les huiles essentiels in post #8.

    I have not heard anyone talking about this but for our family (and many French) we use essential oils (homéopathie) to protect from seasonal viruses. Before you say ridiculous – I have been very prone to brochitis (worst case), angine, bad colds etc

    There are several essential oils which have anti-septic qualities – which I take orally. It was recommended by la Companie des Sens (à Lyon) to takefor COVID-19 (applied to your wrist – I take it orally) 50/50 Ravintsara, Tee Tree. It was also recommended Laurier Noble for inhalation – you can put it in a diffuseur in your room.

    In this magazine, which is widely read with articles of good quality - is mentionned:

    L’Artemisia annua, une plante aux vertus antipaludiques, couplée au Ravintsara, efficace contre les infections respiratoires, toutes deux cultivées sur la Grande Ile, en constituent l’essentiel. La recette, parait-il convoitée du Canada aux Etats-Unis en passant par l’Europe, aurait permis la guérison de deux malades du Covid-19 dans ce pays qui ne compte pas plus d’une centaine de cas. Pas plus vérifiable que la sévérité de l’épidémie sur l’île, confinée depuis un mois, l’information profite au plus jeune des chefs d’Etat africains, « qui surfe sur une vague populiste, utilise la naïveté et la grande pauvreté de sa population » confie, sous couvert d’anonymat, une source locale.

    I have used Ravintsara for several years. I like many get a cold which drips down into the throat, which drips down again becoming a cough, and finishes in the Grande Finalé a bronchite. Ravintsara - I swear by it. But I use it with Eucalytus Radiata (normally) which is more oriented towards avoiding a cold. La Companie des Sens - which was started by a group of young entrepreneurs from the same business school as my daughter - has become a wonderful success. I am following their instructions to use Ravintsara with Tea Tree (half and half dosage - just a couple of drops). Tea Tree is more of a skin remedy - think of a sore throat - or also very good for a boil for example. Both all three of these oils can be taken orally - BUT - posologie French word for the quantity (dosage) and length of time to be taken. If you take a mixture of the two as suggested - a few drops a day is supposed to protect you.

    The article talks about Artemisia annua - don't know it. This is not paludisme (malaria) - COVID-19. The three oils mentionned are strong disinfectants from natural substances purified in a laboratory environment. So by all means - maybe Chris or a designated person can contact them in English - remember we are locked down - and they are busy - as in orders overflowing. They do mail orders. Can't say for the States - don't see why not?

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 8:58am

    Tony

    Tony

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    Joined: Feb 27 2020

    Posts: 6

    Madagascar cocktail (in French)

    Oui, je suis Français de Lyon 😉

    Please find here an article in French on the Madagascar cocktail : https://fr.igihe.com/Coronavirus-a-Madagascar-enquete-sur-le-remede-miracle-evoque-par-Andry.html

    Also using HE.

    Using general purpose tea Tree, but also Niaouli and Ravintsara.

    Take care

     

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 9:02am

    #36
    French connexion

    French connexion

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    2+

    from le Monde

    Here is another article on the same subject. Everyone wants to sell their "sauce". If you thought Big Pharma is mad at Didier - they will be climbing the wall on this one.

    Aucun preuve clinique - no clinical proof - you know blind testing, the Who, See Me Feel Me Touch Me Heal Me.

    Here you go, made in Madagascar - the two products.

    https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/04/22/a-madagascar-le-lancement-d-un-remede-a-l-artemisia-contre-le-covid-19-suscite-la-polemique_6037447_3212.html

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 9:13am

    French connexion

    French connexion

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Mar 26 2020

    Posts: 200

    Do you know?

    Et la Compagnie des Sens, le connaissez-vous? A Lyon.

    https://www.compagnie-des-sens.fr/

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 9:19am

    #38
    Ana Garita

    Ana Garita

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    Joined: Jun 02 2010

    Posts: 4

    6+

    when you mention Costa Rica con minute 28

    Hi, Chris. Thank you for your daily updates and for your integrity.

    I live in Costa Rica. Just a comment about the example and photo of Costa Rica on minute 28. The photo is actually of the Chinese side of the meeting (because of the flag and because they are using facemasks). Costa Rican authorities has beeen doing many things right (be transparent, speak straight,  work with centralized data, implement early nationwide measures, address the emotional part, set up financial help for the bottom income layer, etc). Our health minister (epidemiologist) is a very intelligent and strong leader who leads by example during his daily speaking on TV, but unfortunately wearing masks for citizens is not one of the endorsed measures (only for healthcare workers) so we are not using it massively yet, although more and more people are using it voluntarily.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 9:44am

    #39

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1045

    Where can we find that poster?

    As businesses are starting to open up again many people are going to feel apprehensive.  As if some elected government  employee is going to run into the and scream “you filthy business  your killing people”!!  To bad they won’t have a poster of, which was it the WHO or the CDC, that said masks and gloves weren't effective.

    The point being it’s incompetent, corrupt government managers that cause harm along with the hysterical media spreading fear - - not small business owners!

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 9:48am

    taz1999

    taz1999

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    Joined: Feb 25 2020

    Posts: 45

    5+

    Teachable moments

    In the old persuasion video (Chris calls out today)  I learned that (particularly with my wife)  I was falling into if she just understood this one more thing, she'd agree.  I also found the sideways question of what evidence or events et.al. would change your mind?  I did sometimes ask my self what evidence would change my mind about a particular belief.  I challenge myself more often now.  It's the sign of end times but I found topics where I agreed with both Hannity and Michael Moore.

    And for the first time ever disagreeing with Ron Paul.  Mr. Paul's re-open the economy is well taken but he never talks about potential mitigations.  He seems to be downplaying pandemic and implying this is simply media/government induced panic.

    Nobody seems to be considering that an immediate un-lockdowning is not going to V recover the economy.  I hadn't heard much lately but I understood that micro-loaning was an effective tool in bootstrapping small businesses in poorer countries. I suspect the US is going going to fall into the poorer category.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 10:09am

    Linda T

    Linda T

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    Joined: Jun 09 2014

    Posts: 132

    3+

    Re: from la Monde

    French connexion,

    Thank you for the good chuckle! I've enjoyed "The Who" my whole life (have seen them 3 times in concert, first time Keith Moon was still alive...).

    "Aucun preuve clinique – no clinical proof – you know blind testing, the Who, See Me Feel Me Touch Me Heal Me."

    The movie "Tommy" seems like a appropriate analogy for the chaotic idiots and their inflexible brains (I really liked the article DaveDD linked to earlier), leading around the other chaotic idiots, unfortunately they muck up stuff for the rest of us that embody Integrity, INTJ, introverts, and other critical thinkers. I don't know where she heard it or if she made it up, but my roommate a few weeks ago used the word "Covidiots".

    I also enjoyed the information about left and right, Integrity and Chaos included in yesterday's video. It seems to me that a lot of managers and management represent Chaos, and I always find managers that embody Integrity a breath of fresh air…

    Linda

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 10:11am

    #42

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2410

    10+

    The Hoover Institute is the Deep State

    After posting the article above ("The Data Is In.... Stop the Panic & End the Total Isolation") I thought more about the Hoover Institute at Stanford.  I've come across them before and concluded that They are The Deep State.

    So the devil will be in the details:  Exactly what "sensible precautions" are they proposing to reopen?

    • A tracking app on everybody's phone?
    • Immunity verifying RFID chips implanted under the skin?
    • Mandatory vaccinations?
    • An AI run global computer network that locates and tracks everyone?

    I will assume that the Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institute is up to no good, even though he echos some of DaveFairtex's ideas. 🙂

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 10:18am

    #43

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1045

    8+

    You forgot one Sandpuppy

    Credit cards only as money is dirty.  Really credit cards and pens are not any cleaner.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 11:08am

    #44

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1190

    5+

    The Biggest Lies Come from Gov't-related Entities

    Then

    Head of NIST:  On 9/11 building seven fell due to, "normal office fires".

    We now know, absolutely, definitively, that this was a lie, based on a years long university study of the building and the manner of it's collapse;    https://www.ae911truth.org/wtc7

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Now:
    FDA cautions against use of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine for COVID-19 outside of the hospital setting or a clinical trial due to risk of heart rhythm problems
    https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-cautions-against-use-hydroxychloroquine-or-chloroquine-covid-19-outside-hospital-setting-or

     

    Remember, the swamp has not been fully drained.. in fact the Deep State is fighting for it's life right now.  There is little difference between the two lies above.. they are both intended to force you into a narrative.  They both come from agencies where people's jobs (or maybe their lives or those of their children) somehow depend on towing the line.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 11:19am

    #45
    gyurash

    gyurash

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    Joined: Sep 07 2016

    Posts: 46

    4+

    Dr. Martenson for President!

    Chris, you have my vote. It sounds like you have the beginnings of a solid campaign platform! Given the dearth or worthwhile choices currently on offer I am writing you in on my ballot. Does anyone in our PP community have experience in running a write-in campaign? And if you don’t feel comfortable with that Chris you can always do a ‘Pat Paulsen’ and claim denial. But actually I’m serious.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 11:22am

    #46
    JWhite

    JWhite

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    Joined: Jul 12 2016

    Posts: 119

    1+

    YES to leaving political sparring to the social media folks and mainstream media!

    After yesterday's video on Hydroxychloroquine, in which I didn't quite understand the relevance of the news report on the U.S. president's military actions in Iran, I'm in support of the idea of leaving political leanings out of the discussions.  Chris does not need to justify any of his comments or conclusions to those who would equate them with political leanings.  President Trump is not a medical man, so obviously any announcements he makes regarding treatments are based on advice he's received and research he has done, just as any other world leader might do.  The fact that other people may be saying the same thing is irrelevant with respect to political beliefs.

    Also, it has always been my understanding that politics and religion were taboo subjects on PP, which is one thing I have liked about this site....

    In any case, criticism of the world's political and medical leaders, their incompetence and lack of timely action, is entirely justified and does not equate to a demonstration of one's political beliefs.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 11:48am

    #47

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1045

    What - Chinese Drone Company Donates drones to 43 agencies in 22 States to spy on American.

    China helping to oppress Americans Chinese style.  Including fines.

     

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 12:07pm

    davefairtex

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2136

    12+

    implanted chips

    There is no need for an implanted chip.  We carry them around already.

    The bluetooth chip in your phone can tell who you've been around - or whose phones you've been around anyway - and it can record the bluetooth IDs of everything it sees along with the timestamps.  Then your phone can upload this information blob  to the cloud.  This would need a new software update, but those happen often enough, don't they?  It would not be hard code to write.

    A somewhat less precise mechanism is simply to periodically (every few minutes?) record and timestamp your GPS coordinates, and upload them every day, which google devices already do by default.  You can supposedly turn this off - theoretically - but presumably a software update could simply decide to ignore your request and track you anyway.

    A less precise monitoring mechanism involves just getting approximate location information from the cell towers your phone is talking to.  No update to phone required.

    So if you are going to do something criminal, like say going for a walk, or sitting in the sunshine somewhere, you could decide not to take your phone.  And/or turn your phone off, and stuff it into a faraday bag.  Just to be sure.  (Is that phone really off when you turn it off?  I have my doubts.  Faraday bag.  Just to be sure.)

    I guarantee you they are tracking us all right this moment, to a greater or lesser extent, to assess our compliance with the lockdown.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 12:18pm

    #49

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1045

    8+

    Well knock me down with a feather!

    The bluetooth chip in your phone can tell who you’ve been around – or whose phones you’ve been around anyway – and it can record the bluetooth IDs of everything it sees along with the timestamps.

    That two-timing SOB, Siri said he liked spending quality time with just me!  And all this time has been schmoozing with others😱 and spying on me!  He’s gonna get a time out!

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 12:33pm

    #50

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2410

    4+

    SC2 as a US Bioweapon

    Whitney Webb and Ron Unz both do long essays flowing around the topic and finding many connections and associations.  No smoking guns.  Evidence in entirely non-classified, but not in the mainstream news flow either.  They simply connect some dots.  They do not review the biological type of evidence either.  A couple of points listed below

    -------------

    -There are long chains of evidence of the US IC is actively engaged and funding coronavirus and bat virus research over a decade and over many continents.   Lots of details provided.

    -The most interesting arrest of Professor Charles Lieber

    in late January my morning newspapers carried major stories on the sudden arrest of Prof. Charles Lieber, one of Harvard University’s top scientists and Chairman of its Chemistry Department, sometimes characterized as a potential future Nobel Laureate.

    The circumstances of that case seemed utterly bizarre to me. Like numerous other prominent American academics,  Lieber had had decades of close research ties with China, holding joint appointments and receiving substantial funding for his work.

    ..he was accused of financial reporting violations in the disclosure portions of his government grant applications—the most obscure sort of offense—and on the basis of those accusations, he was seized by the FBI in an early-morning raid on his suburban Lexington home and dragged off in shackles,

    Although Lieber was described as a chemistry professor, a few seconds of Googling revealed that some of his most important work had been in virology, including technology for the detection of viruses. So a massive and deadly new viral epidemic had broken out in China and almost simultaneously, a top American scholar with close Chinese ties and expertise in viruses was suddenly arrested by the federal government ...

    -US soldiers were in Wuhan China for the Military Games in the 30 days before the first SC2 cases appeared in Wuhan.  Unz asks:  "If 300 Chinese soldiers visited Chicago and 30 days later an epidemic started there would we question the connection?"

    -He notes the ABC News special and the Times of Israel article that showed that the US IC warned Israel and NATO about the pandemic in November 2019.  The US IC knew of the pandemic >1 month prior to the Chinese doctors becoming aware of the pandemic in the end of December, first of January.

    -The official poistion of the US IC is that they only learned of the SC2 on Jan 5, when the WHO told them of the pandemic. (and here)

    My summary:   They make a pretty strong case of the plausibility of this being a US based bioweapon.  The articles are long and take lots of bandwitdth to work through.  Again, no smoking gun.   Just lots and lots of connections.

    -------

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 12:56pm

    #51

    davefairtex

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2136

    10+

    sc2 bioweapon

    This is the CCP dream scenario, of course.  Which makes me automatically suspicious.  If there's any organization I distrust more than the CIA, its the CCP.

    And of course, this alleged US bioweapon is now causing a ridiculous amount of damage to the US - possibly sending us into a depression.  It doesn't feel much like a bioweapon attack on China, unless for some very odd reason, the US IC wanted to actually execute an attack on the US and European economies, using China as the vector.

    Which seems a bit beyond the pale, even for them.

    The storyline I remember hearing from CCP alleged that it was a US bioweapon, and that the US had a vaccine already, and that we offered to sell it to the Chinese government.  That story actually made sense.  The pieces hung together.

    Sadly, at this point, it is pretty clear we don't have a vaccine.  So the story falls apart.

    And we were so dreadfully unprepared.

    "Masks don't work.  Except for hospital workers, for whom they do work."

    What organization says stuff like this, except a bunch of incompetent boobs?

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 1:14pm

    #52
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

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    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5309

    14+

    Stanford Study Worse Than I even Thought

    From Thc0655:

    …Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19.

    The recent Stanford University antibody study now estimates that the fatality rate if infected is likely 0.1 to 0.2 percent, a risk far lower than previous World Health Organization estimates that were 20 to 30 times higher and that motivated isolation policies.

    And from a recent Buzzfeed article that just came out - Fact #2:  The lead author of the paper had his wife recruit people from their tony zipcode.

    A Stanford University professor’s wife invited parents in a wealthy enclave of Northern California to sign up for her husband’s coronavirus antibody study this month, falsely claiming that an “FDA approved” test would tell them if they had immunity and could “return to work without fear,” according to an email obtained by BuzzFeed News.

    The email, sent to a listserv for Ardis G. Egan Junior High School in the city of Los Altos on Thursday, April 2, advertised a study set to begin the next day. With the subject line “COVID-19 antibody testing - FREE,” the email described how participants could gain “peace of mind” and “know if you are immune.”

    The results would help researchers calculate the virus’s spread throughout the surrounding county of Santa Clara, according to the message sent by Catherine Su, a radiation oncologist married to Jay Bhattacharya, the Stanford professor of medicine leading the study.

    Weeks later, early results from Bhattacharya’s team would conclude that, based on the tests, the area had 50 to 85 times more infections than reported cases. That finding, along with their claim that the coronavirus would therefore have a lower fatality rate than previously thought, made national headlines. But almost as immediately, the study came under fire from scientists, who said it was based on a heavily flawed data analysis that ignored questions about the antibody test’s false positive rate — as well as a problematic Facebook recruitment strategy.

    The email reveals that the researchers did not disclose another way participants were recruited that could have further skewed the results. In addition to targeting a specific demographic of parents in a wealthy part of Silicon Valley — making it even less likely that the participants represented a random sample — the email falsely claimed that the study’s antibody test was FDA approved, and was worded in a way that might have disproportionately attracted people who had previously been sick. It also misrepresented what participants could learn about their health from the testing.

    Given how new this coronavirus is, scientists do not definitively know how long antibodies can protect you from getting sick again. Yet Su’s email stated: “If you have antibodies against the virus, you are FREE from the danger of a) getting sick or b) spreading the virus. In China and U.K. they are asking for proof of immunity before returning to work. If you know any small business owners or employees that have been laid off, let them know -- they no longer need to quarantine and can return to work without fear.”

    Marm Kilpatrick, an infectious disease researcher at the University of California at Santa Cruz, told BuzzFeed News these statements were “super concerning.”

    (Source)

    Yeah - not only is the study now completely null and void, but the actions by Bhattacharya cut against the core principles of study design and scientific ethics.

    A failure to disclose of that magnitude is scientific fraud.  He should be fired immediately.  If not, then Stanford students should just plagiarize and cheat on tests because apparently those sorts of things don't matter once you get a job a place like Stanford.

     

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 1:22pm

    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

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    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5309

    4+

    Re: when you mention Costa Rica con minute 28

    Are you sure?

    Because when I look at the faces, they mostly look Costa Rican to me, not Chinese.  I thought this was Costa Ricans calling from the Chinese Embassy in San Jose to China.

    If not the embassy, then I can't explain the Chinese flag.  But I'm pretty confident that majority of the people in the room are not Chinese nationals.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 1:49pm

    hollyvquick

    hollyvquick

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 25 2015

    Posts: 2

    3+

    Thanks for Early Warnings of All Sorts

    Chris,

    Like Nicole Foss, I very much appreciate your prescient reporting on COVID19. As just one example, you hit the nail smack on the head with your Stanford study criticism.

    I am re-posting a link to a YouTube video from Dr. Mike Hansen, a pulmonary medicine/intensivist doc who reviewed the latest research on COVID19 drugs. He is agnostic, in the best scientific tradition; though he doesn't rate chloroquine particularly highly, he does include info about a choroquine + zinc study that likely includes patients with mild/moderate disease (though probably after folks have been hospitalized). My hope is that you might consider communicating with him, and through that channel, your ideas for clinical trials (early, pre-hospitalization for chloro (quercetin?) + zinc) will find a way to be included in the types of robust clinical studies the mainstream media will report on. Title of video: Five Best Drugs for COVID19:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBWaWqXZgko

    Thanks for the work you are doing!

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 1:55pm

    SagerXX

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Feb 11 2009

    Posts: 458

    7+

    Hot and humid and going outdoors is good? CHECK!

    Hawaii has (last I checked) 12 deaths out of 1.416 million people.  We are under a fairly rigorous SIP lockdown but there are loopholes and ways to just outright evade it (and still maintain social distance) and believe you me, we have.  Not everybody has been assiduous about social distance but most people have made good faith efforts.

    We have peaked and are heading down the backslope.  The gov is saying we're gonna do another month of lockdown.  Perhaps because as soon as people can travel, we'll get (potentially-infected) travelers from every corner of the planet, because Paradise.  Regardless, I have been wondering about our sweet outcome for weeks now and best I could come up with is strong and direct UV-drenched sunlight (close to equator) and high humidity, plus low background environmental toxicity (our air is fresh off the ocean, no major landmasses or industry for thousands of miles in an direction).  We also routinely score high on "Happiest State" surveys, and happy people have less stress, less stress stronger immunes.

    So -- to the extent you can, everybody, get out in the sun and recreate.  Run, ride a bike, just lay out and make some Vitamin D.  Pretend it's Spring 2001 and your Redhat Software stock is at 207/share, shed some stress.  If you can't get out, sit in front of a window and get some sun that way (raise the glass, it blocks UV).  Might just save your life!

    VIVA -- Sager

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 1:59pm

    #56
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    13+

    IceAgeFarmer on Social Media Censorship of Food Shortages (video)

    Social Media Censors as Food Shortages Begin (4/24/20)

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 2:48pm

    Captain Queeg

    Captain Queeg

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    Joined: Mar 25 2020

    Posts: 28

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    RE: IceAgeFarmer on Social Media Censorship of Food Shortages

    Wow...this is pretty intense.

    Why isn't this getting more coverage not only here but in the MSM...?

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 3:00pm

    #58

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1045

    5+

    Thanks Captain Queeg

    And I thought there were only three of us wondering that!

     

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 3:14pm

    #59

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2065

    6+

    Another reopening proposal

    http://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2020/04/so-you-want-out-of-lockdown.html

    ...How about doing and trying everything other than stay-at-home/shelter-in-place?1) Latest word from WH briefings and the CDC (caveat emptor) is that summer sunlight and temperatures kill this thing on surfaces and in air in less time than a commercial. So a priority ought to be lifting the jackassical lockdowns on outdoor recreation areas and beaches. The bathrooms there, and any indoor air-conditioned venues, not so much.2) Ordinary isopropyl alcohol apparently kills this bitch deader than canned tuna in half a minute too. So how's about we all agree to decon the f**k out of everything not moving, especially in public, over and over again, with every anti-viral cleansing agent known to man?3) There will always be the 10% Gilligans in any population (Stout cudgel. Cranium. Assembly required.) , but people should be required to wear and use properly appropriate PPE, like masks and gloves, and given the opportunity to take responsibility for their own protection, and get out and about. I've taken care of 1-2 dozen Kung Flu patients already, at close range, using nothing more complicated than that. It works, and if I can do it, you darned sure can, if you have access to enough of the PPE to do it. Let's require its use in public, universally, and crank that stuff out by the metric f**kton.4) We're going to have to test, and universally. First to find out who doesn't have it, and who does. So we need gajillions of rapid tests, that are accurate, and specific to SARS-CoV-2, not just any coronavirus including ones that cause a cold. We should start by testing the populations of lesser inhabited states first, and turning them loose, both because they'll be easier to clear faster, and if mistakes are made, they endanger fewer people. Besides, it's time North Dakota and Wyoming were at the head of the line for something. IL, FL, NY, TX, and CA should be dead last. Suck it up, buttercups. By the time we get to them, we should have a lot more tests, equipment, etc., so we'll be better prepared to open them as well, and fast enough to get it done.5) And BTW, start by testing the actual essential workers, to clear them. Transportation/drivers, freight handlers, farmers, grocery clerks, water/gas/power engineers and workers, garbage collectors, cops, firefighters, EMS, and medical personnel. Then, everybody else, household by household.6) Actual no-shit quarantines of infected/contagious people, with full lockdown "stay your @$$ at home" quarantine rules, posted signs, public health monitoring, and draconian enforcement for any violations, until they're cleared. Instead of locking up the healthy people.None of that requires waiting on treatments nor vaccines made of vaporware. It isn't stupid, and it's all doable starting tomorrow. And none of it, done right, is liable to contribute a single new infection or death. It simply takes hospital and public health common sense from a century ago, and demands that we use it now.Let's do this by hemming this bitch virus in, instead of stupidly doing unilateral lifting of lockdowns, which will just spread it around, and guarantee that we spread this to everyone,  create 49 or 100 more NYFCs, and kill people off by the bushel for the rest of the year.That, I can get behind unreservedly, and other than the contagious infected, requires just about Jack and Squat Big Brother nannyism, or any more jackassical overreach by local petty tyrants and our would-be clipboard commando overlords. It also requires not one single bit of dubious surveys, magical models, calculating unknowable percentages of exposed, sick, hospitalized, dead, nor any other wild thing. That doesn't mean they, and sheltering in place, never served any useful purpose, but their utility is largely over (unless TPTB/Idiots In Charge cock this up by the numbers, and get us back to Square One).We know what we need to know about things, and pushing decimal points back and forth solves nothing.It will require hordes of testing materials, and PPE and decon supplies in small and large mountains. Okay, so let's get on that.Wash your damned hands, wear your mask, and gloves - and change them! -  decon the hell out of everything not moving, and lock up the infected people, and we can get through this without killing off worst case estimates.Or, slow-roll an idiotic unilateral lockdown lift, and spend the whole year killing great gobs more people slowly, with a dull rusty saw....

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 3:28pm

    Mots

    Mots

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    Posts: 251

    8+

    "People believe what they prefer to believe"

    LesPhelps makes a good point about how most people cannot follow rational thought and merely believe what feels good to them, and that the PP community differs in basic personality type (INT*).

    This is an important observation and I would add the fact that according to the Minnesota fraternal twins study (comparison of >80 sets of twins raised in different families), the personality feature of independent thought, (not agreeing with authority and coming up with your own conclusions), is one of the most genetically determined traits that was reviewed.
    This indicates that
    1. it is not helpful to try and have logical discussions with most people.  Maybe we should focus on singing and dancing with them and trying to find agreement with their religious feelings of expression instead.  After all, they are the ones who will snitch and get non-conformists added to the list of enemies-of-the-state, which are being compiled via facebook / google.
    2. if there is a problem with rational thought being in short supply, we need to rely on evolution (and not more arguments with people who do not respond rationally to arguments) to fix this problem.

    3. many who opine about the collapse of societies, including those who believe we have already entered a new dark age, conclude that there will be a die off (or at least lack of reproduction leading to population decrease).   This may be an instance of our continuing evolution.
    Perhaps  one can determine a strategy for how rational thinkers should deal with the collapse with this all in mind.  For example it may be counterproductive to discuss/argue with emotional people who are looking for a leader to guide their emotions.  Just suggesting an alternative to the state proclaimed rules of social distancing to an emotional neighbor is enough to be reported to the state as a domestic terrorist or get yourself on their list of deviants.  Facebook already is listing/targeting individuals who opine in public that the Wuhan lab was probably the source of the virus.  This is similar to what happened in Nazi Germany and we need to be aware of it.  Maybe we can develop communications on another medium out of review of the censors.  Laugh if you want, but this is going to get much worse and we should prepare. My trigger point will be when CM becomes heavily censored or banned.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 3:29pm

    loj-ikul

    loj-ikul

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    Joined: Mar 03 2020

    Posts: 55

    2+

    RE: IceAgeFarmer on Social Media Censorship of Food Shortages

    Hi Captain. I just watched that video too created by Ice Age Farmer that Sparky1 posted. Everyone that reads this blog needs to view it. To sum it up, meat rationing will start in about 2 weeks once the commercial storage freezers get low.

    Another thing that might be getting low was I tried to buy 2 bottles of virgin olive oil at costco. They limited me to only 1. Make sure to have enough cooking oil.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 3:30pm

    Bleep

    Bleep

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 07 2017

    Posts: 54

    Which Island are you on?

    Hey Sager,

    Which island are you on?  I am on the Big Island.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 4:03pm

    #63
    Mike from Jersey

    Mike from Jersey

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    Joined: Jan 22 2018

    Posts: 86

    5+

    New York Times

    Chris,

    The New York Times may have been a good newspaper in the past. Now, they are living on reputation and the gas in that "reputation tank" is just about all gone.

    Don't take them seriously because they do not do serious journalism.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 4:11pm

    #64
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    Chris' newest video, live now, "Bad Science or Something Worse?"

    Coronavirus: Bad Science (Or Something Worse?) May Well Be Costing Lives (4/24/20)

     

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 4:16pm

    Quercus bicolor

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Mar 19 2008

    Posts: 404

    2+

    CFR using only NY City data

    Number of deaths: as of Monday when testing was performed:

    Now for the death rate: 17000/8.4million *.212 = 0.95%

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 4:24pm

    Krollchem

    Krollchem

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jul 10 2012

    Posts: 24

    3+

    serological tests identify the common cold exposure as well as COVID-19

    To echo Chris:
    Several serological studies for the presence of IgM-IgG antibodies have concluded that the percentage of individuals infected with the COVID-19 virus SARS-CoV-2 is 50-80x higher than the recorded cases, due to recovered asymptomatic cases that were not tested during the infection using the RT-PCR test.

    Unfortunately, this serological test yields very high false positives “due to past or present infection with non-SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus strains, such as coronavirus HKU1, NL63, OC43, or 229E.” Yes, if a person has had a common cold they would likely test positive!!!

    COVID-19 IgM/IgG Rapid Test

    Other limitations mentioned by this manufacturer include:
    (1) Lacks FDA review due to the urgency of testing;
    (2) “Negative results do not rule out SARS-CoV-2 infection, particularly in those who have been in contact with the virus. Follow-up testing with a molecular diagnostic should be considered to rule out infection in these individuals.”;
    (3) “Results from antibody testing should not be used as the sole basis to diagnose or exclude SARS-CoV-2 infection or to inform infection status.” “The COVID-19 IgM/IgG Rapid Test can be used to screen patients suspected of having been affected by the novel coronavirus. However, results of test should not be the only basis for diagnosis.”;
    (4) Only used on fresh samples and tested immediately;
    (5) “Results are valid 10 minutes after sample and buffer are combined in the cassette sample well. “;
    (6) This test has a low sensitivity, as it has been determined to detect only 88.66% of those confirmed to be positive by the PCR test;
    (7) This test have a low specificity of 90.63%, as 9.37% of those patients tested were not SARS-CoV-2 infected;

    Other issues with serological testing in the fore mentioned studies include”:
    (1) Lack of random sampling for age, sex, ethnic background, socio-economic status etc.
    (2) Potential of super-recruiter bias from word of mouth of the drive by test site(s)

    See also this video by a doctor of pathology on limitations of serological testing for COVID-19

    Given the measured sensitivity and selectivity from the above test one can calculate the following for a 1% infection rate (10,000) among one million people:
    Positive cases found =8,866 (0.8866%)
    False positives found= 92,763 (9.2763%)
    Ratio of false/real =92,763/92,763+8,866 = 91.28% of positive tests are false

    Thus the herd immunity is greatly exaggerated in serological testing. For instance, if a serological study claims that 20% of the population has been exposed to COVID-19, the actual percentage of the population exposed to this virus is actually 1.74%.

    All such studies using serological testing should contain a BIG disclaimer on the accuracy of the results.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 4:29pm

    SagerXX

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Feb 11 2009

    Posts: 458

    1+

    I'm on Maui -- and

    Thatchmo is on Kauai.  Welcome!

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 4:50pm

    VTGothic

    VTGothic

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    Joined: Jan 05 2020

    Posts: 219

    9+

    Thoughts on beating the food shortage rush

    To sum it up, meat rationing will start in about 2 weeks once the commercial storage freezers get low.

    Another thing that might be getting low was I tried to buy 2 bottles of virgin olive oil at costco. They limited me to only 1. Make sure to have enough cooking oil.

    A thought: Bypass retail grocers. Get to know your local farmers and transition to buying in bulk. It's actually cheaper for top quality meats, and you'll find you don't need to eat as much high-quality organic, grass-raised meat to feel satiated, which is why we've discovered we actually save money buying the best directly from the farmer.

    To beat the rush that's obviously about to hit even local farmers, today I placed an order with a local grower for 1/2 of an organic, unmedicated, grass-raised and -finished cow. About 185 lbs after processing. Packaged it will work out to around $6.50/lb. Typically, about 40% is hamburger, but I get it cut as roasts because then I can cook or smoke it as a roast, cube it for chili and stir fry, or grind it into hamburger and sausage as the mood hits. I also slice some, marinate it in half-strength tamari, and dehydrate it into beef jerky. It'll be available at the end of June, but I got my name on it today.

    I also put a deposit on a whole Fall lamb (about 40 lbs packaged) to go with the lamb I have in the freezer. It will be about $9.00/lb, which is a great price for organic, unmedicated, grass-raised and -finished lamb. I make a lot of lamb curries, and Mediterranean style lamb dishes, as well as kofta and lamb sausage.

    I also take bones and organs of both and make bone broth from them. That's free, and highly nutritious. Great for soup, chili, stew, and curry.

    I do purchase some olive oil, but for my primary oil I get high quality hand-pressed coconut oil from Healthy Traditions (tropicaltraditions.com). I buy either a 5 gallon pail or 5 1-gallon pails at a time, depending on which has a better price when I'm buying - about once a year. Shipping for such quantities is free. It works in all cooking - in fact, it makes a great crispy cookie, and is perfect for fried chicken. I have a tablespoon in my morning coffee every day to assure I get plenty of omega-3 fatty acids.

    I don't buy eggs or chicken because I grow my own and process the meat birds myself - and use organs and bones for chicken broth. But local price off the farm is $4/lb bought in quantities of 8 or more - again, field raised and organic.

    We grow most of our summer vegetables and winter storage crops, but I'm not good with cabbage, so I purchase bulk cabbage after harvest from a local grower when they're ready to do bulk discounts of excess, and extra carrots if I need them, to make kimchi (and sometimes sauerkraut) for our year's supply of fermented foods. Kimchi is great because it's ready in 3 days, and you can add just about any vegetable you want, cut to match stick size, as well as some fruits - especially a green pear or tart apple.

    The key is to get ahead of the game. Food is primal security. You can even get a small freezer for a couple hundred dollars, enough to store a half cow. I have accumulated 5 freezers of varying capacity over the last 10 years, only one of which I paid for. One of them I only use intermittently, when everything's chock full. One, the smallest, is mostly for bones and organs, waiting to be made into broth.

    Butchers will often give you extra bones and organs for free because they end up having to pay for them to be disposed of; ask your organic animal's contract butcher for the bones you've already paid for in hanging weight, and if he'll toss in extra for you. Odds are he'll be happy. Slow cook bones and organs in water for 48 hours, letting the bones become soft so the marrow comes out and the nutrients in the bones leach into the liquid, and you'll have some powerhouse bone broth! If you have chickens, toss the spent bones and organs to them. They'll get a nutrient boost, including calcium from the bones. Or feed the spent organs to your dog and cat.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 5:03pm

    #69

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1045

    5+

    Chris knocked it out of the ballpark with todays video!

    Wow, it was so well done!  I would bet money its being played and watched at the highest levels in our country and around the world.

    Please tell us if the President calls you personally.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 5:09pm

    MarkM

    MarkM

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    Joined: Jul 22 2008

    Posts: 421

    8+

    Excellent advice VTGothic

    Don't forget a CSA for veggies, if you desire. Fortunately, our farm business is crazy these days. We have grass fed beef, lamb and pastured chicken. The limiting factor for us is local processing. We are now booking dates in late summer. Demand has outstripped our ability to get the processing done. ALL the local processors are just slammed. Hopefully, this disaster will help usher in a new (old) era in food production. LOCAL.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 5:57pm

    robie robinson

    robie robinson

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Aug 25 2009

    Posts: 1052

    3+

    I am that farmer...

    ...and am seeing quite an increase is interest.

    robie,husband,father,farmer,optometrist (and JHK thinks I should become a mule skinner)

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 6:23pm

    #72
    treebeard

    treebeard

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    Joined: Apr 18 2010

    Posts: 558

    10+

    Exploitation exposing exploitation

    This virus is a mirror of our own financial and social system. Invade a host, exploit til exhaustion or death and spread to the next resource source. Whether it be renewable resources of forests, soils, fisheries, aquifers, and air, or the non renewable resources of coal, uranium, oil, rare earths, or natural gas.  And along with it the commodification and financialization of everything, including all life, and even our own lives.  The suppression of effective modalities of treatment for financial reasons, the exploitation of the crisis for financial and political gain or blame.

    What is our response to all this, casting about, looking for someone or something to blame, certainly we had nothing to do with this. Nary a mirror of self reflection anywhere to be found.  The CCP did this, no it was the CIA, no the WHO or the CDC, republicans, democrats, no it had to be Putin trying to bankrupt the American shale industry. How about the Bilderbergs, Rothschilds?

    When I was young, my favorite mantra was - things don't have to be this way.  But slowly, the painful realization that I still uselessly try to fight from time to time dawned on me - if things could have happened any differently, they would have.

    If this virus had not shown up, how would this all have ended anyway. Ecological collapse, endless wars over dwindling resources, financial collapse because of endemic political and financial corruption.  We are fighting the physical manifestation of our own darkness.  And I'm afraid they do have to be this way till eventually they don't.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 6:28pm

    #73
    k12250

    k12250

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    Joined: Mar 11 2020

    Posts: 1

    1+

    CFR vs IFR

    Your slide on CFR vs IFR appears to be incorrect. Below are the IFRs of the flu and H1N1.
    Source for flu data: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

    2009-2010 H1N1 0.02%
    2013-2014 Flu 0.13%
    2014-2015 Flu 0.17%
    2015-2016 Flu 0.10%
    2016-2017 Flu 0.13%
    2017-2018 Flu 0.14%
    2018-2019 Flu 0.10%
    2019-2020 Flu 0.09%

    The estimated number of illnesses is calculated. H1N1 was not a severe as other flu. You might want to re-evaluate this.

    A link for how the CDC estimates illnesses is on the page.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 6:56pm

    Mohammed Mast

    Mohammed Mast

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    Joined: May 17 2017

    Posts: 739

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    SandPuppy (Stanford)

    Of course Stanford IS the deep state. Google came right out of Stanford. Federal money was used to start it.

    Does anybody really believe Google came up with and developed Google Earth? It is military technology.

    LOL Just Google how how Larry and Sergei got started

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 7:00pm

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

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    Posts: 1190

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    I don't understand Treebeard..

    Is there nothing worth fighting for?  Is there nothing that should be fought for?  Should we have not fought WWII because there's a little of the Nazi evil in every one of us?  Should certain Americans have not fought for civil rights?  Should I not fight to expose the man behind the curtain.. the Deep State.. because I have some of the exploiter in me?  Should our Founding Fathers have not fought for the America of our Constitution?

    I don't actually buy your line of thinking.  We can acknowledge our own imperfections while fighting against those forces that would oppress us.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 7:16pm

    sofistek

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2008

    Posts: 735

    Mea Culpa

    Hi DaveDD,

    My apologies for the question. You did provide the data, or a link, in your first reply but I somehow missed it. I see what you're getting at and at the fact that Covid-19 is at least 24 times as deadly as the flu.

    From that antibody testing data, I did notice that the tests weren't random (they were all supermarket shoppers) and that there is some question about the accuracy of any antibody tests at the moment. Of course, uncertainty goes both ways, so I suppose it may be less than 25 times as deadly as the flu but I wonder if typical supermarket shoppers are more likely to have picked it up, more likely to have a very mild or asymptomatic version, or that recovered cases are more likely to go shopping thinking they are immune.

    Earlier, you mentioned the extreme seasonality of the Swedish cases. Can you explain that comment? As the virus has only been going for a couple of months, there isn't much evidence of seasonality. Perhaps you were referring to the flu but your link was to a Worldometers Covid-19 page.

    Cheers.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 8:06pm

    MillenialFalcon

    MillenialFalcon

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    Joined: Oct 29 2016

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    3+

    QT Prolongation

    Chris QT prolongation is a well known side effect from Azithromycin all by itself. I've had patients who were on drugs that caused QT prolongation and Dr's prescribed ZPak for a sinus infection and died from cardiac issues related to QT Prolongation. These people never used hydroxychloraquin.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 8:08pm

    #78
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 701

    2+

    between the FDA trying to take away HCQ, and censorship by the major players..

    It wont be long before the ignorant and dumb become educated and wise.  I call for Revolt.. They are afraid of panic?  and social unrest.. As we know in this group.. panic is caused by failure to plan.. They are trying to avoid planing and hoping no one will panic.. Well.. that is a no go!!

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 8:09pm

    Time2help

    Time2help

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    Joined: Jun 08 2011

    Posts: 2343

    5+

    Leave no stone unturned

    davefairtex said: "This is the CCP dream scenario, of course. Which makes me automatically suspicious. If there’s any organization I distrust more than the CIA, its the CCP.

    And of course, this alleged US bioweapon is now causing a ridiculous amount of damage to the US – possibly sending us into a depression. It doesn’t feel much like a bioweapon attack on China, unless for some very odd reason, the US IC wanted to actually execute an attack on the US and European economies, using China as the vector."

    Could well be exactly that Dave. I wouldn't put anything past the current crop of "Deep State" (whomever comprises). All of this is sure providing some excellent cover for a global debt implosion brought on by 100+ years of Federal Reserve and worldwide central banking currency debasement. We're at 26 million off the roles in 5 weeks and the MSM is busy getting the collective psyche prepped for rationing going forward.

    These fine folks killed ~3,000 Americans in broad daylight on national TV and the MSM press went along in lockstep with them. If 3,000 didn't give pause then 300,000 or 3,000,000 are just a few extra zeros. All for the greater good of course.

    Perhaps it was a natural occurrence or perhaps it was the CCP. But if we're already going through the trouble of turning over stones might as well flip them all over.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 8:12pm

    #80
    jmone

    jmone

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    IFR of COVID -19 (medRxiv Study)

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.18.20070912v1

    - Overall IFR = 1.29%

    - Under 60's IFR = 0.05%

    - Over 60's IFR = 4.25%

    Notes:

    - Based on initial outbreak area in Italy

    - Not yet peer reviewed

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 8:48pm

    #81
    jmone

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    1+

    IDR / Incidence Rate / Crude Death Rates

    The other stat we need to understand better is what the "Incidence Rate" is going to be for COVID-19 (eg the % that will get it).  As a comparison:

    - Spanish Flu = 33%

    - Seasonal Flu (from low to high years) = 3-11%

    As an example, if the COVID-19 Incidence Rate is 33% and the IFR is 1.29% that gives a Covid-19 Crude Death Rate of 0.43% (note: this does not calculate how long it take to get to 33%).

    As a way of comparison, the Global Crude Death Rate (all causes) is 0.77% or 60 Million deaths pa.  The crude death rate is defined as "the mortality rate from all causes of death for a population," calculated as the "total number of deaths during a given time interval"

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 8:59pm

    #82

    davefairtex

    Status: Member

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    Posts: 2136

    2+

    various rates; from CDC data on influenza, and other data

    There are 4 numbers we need to know:

    • asymptomatic illnesses
    • symptomatic illnesses
    • hospitalizations
    • deaths

    For influenza in 2018-2019, in the US, those numbers were unknown, 45M, 810k, and 61k.

    So we see a hospitalization fatality rate of 7.5%, and a symptomatic fatality rate of 0.135%.

    A study done in the UK found that 75% of influenza cases were asymptomatic.  (Fascinating study below; maybe I need a new career)

    https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2014/03/uk-flu-study-many-are-infected-few-are-sick

    So the illness fatality rate is - perhaps - 0.033%.

    Summarized, for influenza: if you are infected, death rate is 0.033%, if you have symptoms, death rate is 0.135%, and if you are hospitalized, death rate is 7.5%.  (This from the 2018-2019 flu season).

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

    [I'm still not 100% clear on how CDC estimates the 45M symptomatic cases]

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 9:14pm

    davefairtex

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    3+

    a rationale

    tth-

    While I can actually buy the rationale for the 9/11 attack: pretty much the same as the pearl harbor attack.  It was a dramatic event that, end of the day, didn't change any element of US national power, while motivating the US to respond both politically and militarily.

    That's just not the case with SC2.  I do not think any element of the US national security state would deliberately set out on a course of conduct that would inflict this level of economic (and thus, military) damage to the country.

    The 9/11 story made sense.  This one doesn't.

    For me, the lab coverup in Wuhan tells me all I need to know.  Why stage a coverup, if no crime occurred?

    Coverup tells us everything we need to know.

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  • Fri, Apr 24, 2020 - 9:15pm

    #84
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    5+

    WOW , just got done with today's video

    Amazing work, we all know what is going on,  but you laid it out so well and put a nail in it.    But , i am pretty logical, but this one out-right angered me even knowing what the gig is..  These people are going to kill tens if not hundreds of thousands of americans to save their precious high dollar treatments.

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 1:11am

    DaveDD

    DaveDD

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    Posts: 171

    Re: Mea Culpa

    Hi Sofistek,

    The fault is on my side. I should have made the links explicit.

    The seasonality in the Worldometers data is artificial. Stoff75 provided this information:

    “Sweden’s strategy is different in that the end goal is to end up with as few deaths as possible and not imposing restrictions that can’t be upheld for months. Unfortunately we’ve had some setbacks – we failed at protecting the elderly enough – but we’re still below the curve. One big problem for us here is the lag in data reporting which is terrible, if you look at our statistics you’ll see that during saturday/sunday all numbers go down and then a big spike on monday. Another issue regarding most statistics site is that you can’t go back and revise the number for a specific day, so it looks like we have a big spike in deaths when what actually happened was that the paperwork stacked up and was handled a specific day. But if you look at the official statistics for Sweden they go back and revise it all the time so it’s more even. (https://fohm.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/68d4537bf2714e63b646c37f152f1392)

    And so far I think the cultural difference with Swedes managing social distancing so well is a big reason we haven’t been in worse shape than we are. However, now that the heat is coming people are going out more so we still may end up with more restrictions…”

    There is seasonality in the data if there is a regular pattern (up-down-up-down), like the air temperature curve over a year. This is typically one of the first things you want to check for in data.
    Take care!

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 2:18am

    #86
    RPSTemple

    RPSTemple

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    2+

    Masks for all - Why it works - A good explanation

    Face masks are simple, easily made, not sexy and certainly not high tech!

    This article (https://medium.com/the-atlantic/the-real-reason-to-wear-a-mask-e6405abbc484)  explains, why they work. It also notes that in the countries that have adopted a public policy of everyone wearing face masks, they have effectively kept their outbreaks under control.

    This includes Hong Kong which is densely populated, close to the original source of the outbreak, and, as I understand it, not had stringent lock down provisions, but continued to work semi normally including general use of their public mass transit systems.

    Therefore why are we in the West not adopting it as public policy No.1?

     

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 2:22am

    gyrogearloose

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Sep 08 2008

    Posts: 416

    WTC7 'study' a study in circular logic

    In the report they then ran simulations removing columns 79 80 & 81 for 6 to 7 floors at various levels. Their models results were that if the columns were removed from lower down the penthouse would not fall. It was not until they removed the columns from floor45 up that they got the penthouse to fall.

    So given the video evidence indicates that at least floor 37 up started to fall at the same time as the penthouse ( and not a floor by floor progression ) there is an anomaly.

    So

    Either the people planting the explosives planted explosives on multiple floors from as low as floor 37 up to cut supports so that the penthouse would collapse matching the model

    Or the assumptions underpinning the model did not match the real world structural performance of the as built WTC7

    They claim their model proves explosives were needed to bring the building down, but their model is only valid if you assume explosives were used to cause the collapse of the penthouse.......

    Regards hamish

    Ps this keeps on being brought up in honey badger threads, should be done in the 'book review the mysterious of world trade center 7" thread

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 2:26am

    DaveDD

    DaveDD

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    Posts: 171

    Re: CFR vs IFR

    Hi k12250,

    Thanks for the link and the data. Correct me if I’m overlooking something, but the numbers seem to me more like the CFR.. Here is why:

    • The CFR is by definition larger than the IFR because asymptomatic cases left out when determining the ill people: the goal of the CDC is to estimate the burden of the seasonal flu (hospitalizations and deaths). Asymptomatic infected do not bother anyone, so they are left out of the equation. (Also see post #46 of davefairtex above)
    • According to the CDC, the number of  asymptomatic people is twice that of the (estimated) ill people (source). If these numbers would represent the IFR, this would mean that the CFR would be twice as high, so, based on your list, maximal 0.34%. Which is unlikely high for the flu.

    So, assuming that these numbers are estimated for the CFR, we can determine the IFR. As mentioned earlier, the ratio between CFR and IFR is ~2. Based on your numbers, the IFR would be ~0.05%. This does not impact the narrative based on the 0.02% IFR too much: the SARS-CoV-2 would than be between  10-40 times worse than the flu, assuming that the 21% of infected in New York is correct.

    Please note: we did not take the extended stay in the ICU of the CoV-2 into account!

    Take care!

    PS: I updated some sentences to clarify everything.

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 4:31am

    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

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    2+

    Re: CFR using only NY City data

    Number of deaths: as of Monday when testing was performed:

    Now for the death rate: 17000/8.4million *.212 = 0.95%

    Steve - sorta, but not quite.  One more distinction.  A final CFR and/or IFR only applies to resolved cases.  You are calculating something that is still 'in flight.'

    NY still has 224,936 active cases.  Many of those will resolve without death, but some of them will end in death.  In other words, it's certain that your calculation will end higher (unless NYC suddenly has a lot of births or immigration to add to the denominator).

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 4:56am

    #90

    sand_puppy

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    9+

    Cardiac Safety of Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine--reference links

    Extracting two links from Chris' video today

    The WHO Evidence Review Meeting, 2016, on the Cardiotoxicity of Antimalarials  Summary and Conclusions, p 36.

    ....Despite hundreds of millions of doses administered in the treatment of malaria, there have been no reports of sudden unexplained death associated with quinine, chloroquine or amodiaquine, although each drug causes QT/QTc interval prolongation.

    ----

    Ventricular Arrhythmia Risk Due to Hydroxychloroquine-Azithromycine Treatment for COVID-19.

    Chloroquine, and its more contemporary derivative hydroxychloroquine, have remained in clinical use for more than a half-century as an effective therapy for treatment of some malarias, lupus, and rheumatoid arthritis. Data show inhibition of iKr and resultant mild QT prolongation associated with both agents.

    Despite these suggestive findings, several hundred million courses of chloroquine have been used worldwide making it one of the most widely used drugs in history, without reports of arrhythmic death under World Health Organization surveillance.

     

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 5:32am

    #91
    Aussie_Steve

    Aussie_Steve

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    8+

    I had Coronoa

    I had the Corona virus. It wiped me out for 2 weeks. I slept half the day and spent the rest on the couch. When I walked upstairs I would be out of breath and have to lie down. I got tested and was positive but the good news is I never felt in danger and didn't have to go the hospital. I have now been recovered for 2 and half weeks. It feels like I have a super power as I no longer need to be scared of getting the virus and have got busy trying to get the economy moving again.

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 6:18am

    #92
    Mohammed Mast

    Mohammed Mast

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    Joined: May 17 2017

    Posts: 739

    Gail the Actuary to cheer you up

    https://ourfiniteworld.com/2020/04/21/covid-19-and-oil-at-1-is-there-a-way-forward/

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 6:32am

    #93
    treebeard

    treebeard

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    1+

    Nothing new under the sun

    My comment was not implying that we all should sit in a room and meditate and do nothing else, though I am not sure that would be such a bad thing.  Internal action is not disconnected from external action.  Sure, rail against the deep state (l do believe it does exist, and is part of the endemic corruption that makes our culture so dysfunctional), but what do you really do in the face of such Overwhelming darkness? For me, it is really beyond comprehension, yet so many have adapted to the new normal as if nothing is really happening.  Have we even paused long enough to let what’s happening sink in?

    In the face of a global pandemic and economic collapse, we see the same small minded petty self interested dysfunctional behavior plying out.  Do we Vote for  Biden instead of Trump, the choice is so bad that it is beyond absurdity.

    I guess I was reiterating Chris’s tag line at the end of every COVID-19 video, plant a garden.  Not just because of the real possibility of impending food shortages but because of its transformative nature, between us and the world we inhabit and each other.

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 6:41am

    KugsCheese

    KugsCheese

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    Re: I Had CoronaVirus

    What kind of testing did you have?   PCR?   IgM/IgG?   There is emerging data that immunity may not develop longterm.    Plus there are last count 18 strains of this virus.   Happy that you recovered from the first round.

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 6:48am

    #95
    DaveDD

    DaveDD

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    Maybe we just forgot how to act in the face of crisis?

    Hi all,

    Like all the rest here I'm somewhat suspicious of the powers that be, however, this whole  hydrochloroquine situation might all be a bad case of the old adage "correlation does not imply causation".

    The "facts":

    1. hydrochloroquin causes QT prolongation,
    2. that other drug used in combination causes QT prolongation,
    3. COVID-19 can damage the heart,
    4. QT prolongation due to hydrochloroquin did not cause any heart related deaths.

    What if there is an interaction between the first three facts? The current state of affairs in the sciences is that we are not good at differentiating correlation and causation, especially if there are multiple, interacting factors involved. The double-blind testing procedure enables us to infer causality. However, in this case would be unethical and too time consuming. So, basically what you are now seeing is the struggle between the cerebral reaction taught at school that maybe we should investigate first if this giant lion like-animal with saber teeth is a carnivore, and the instinctive urge to run for that beast that looks like a lion with huge teeth.  What should one do when facing a crisis of potentially epic proportions without the guidance of a structure that works best in a tranquil environment? The French philosopher Bruno Latour once wrote the book "Science in Action", a sociological study based on the practice of science in laboratories. Maybe he should write a sequel: "Science in Action2: Help, We Are Drowning!".

    With respect the unspoken "monster under the bed", lets list a few as a mental exercise:

    1. "This is all fake news spread by the CCP or their agents!  We, their biggest rival, is getting hammered. Even our mighty aircraft carriers are grounded, and our oil industry is in shambles."
    2. "The US is a country run by robber barons under the guise of capitalism: profits are privatized, losses are socialized! The pharmaceutical industry and their cronies are behind this! Imagine! 300 million forced vaccinations costing at least 5000 dollars per vaccination , that's a potential revenue of 1.5 trillion dollars."
    3. "How could this french catweazle, he just robbed me of my opportunity to shine and share the Nobel prize with the CCP and the WHO!"

    What are the similarities? I think that these "tinfoil hat"  scenarios  all have one thing in common that, if true, would enrage me: they all violate Kant's "Formula for Humanity". The philosopher Kant believed that there are universal, ethical principles. But there was one the most important: if we want to treat people with dignity and respect,  we never use others, or ourselves, only as a way to reach a certain goal. (like those persons in these hypothetical scenarios: Greediness, Greed, Vanity). This whole S**** Show reminds me of what kind of person I not want to be!

    Take care!

    PS: I convinced my wife to plant a (small) garden!

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 6:51am

    Kathy

    Kathy

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    Posts: 16

    2+

    Could opposition to HCQ therapy in US be related to A Fib prevalence here?

    My husband, a former athlete and longtime endurance activity guy, suddenly developed AFib and Flutter, after back problems stopped him cold and caused him to gain 50 pounds.  His apnea also got much, much worse.  His ablations have stopped the Fib and Flutter and he is on lifelong CPap to deter his very severe apnea.   His electro-cardiologist told him that ablations have become the number one procedure in the US.

    Wondering if the prevalence of severe apnea and obesity in the US, and the craze for more extreme exercise by a large percentage of the fit, worries the medical authorities about how many people could be pushed into Fib/Flutter.  Could it be that the 70 years of use is mostly in populations that don't have much of these problems?  And so, medical reps may worry about  what the widespread use of HCQ in this country could do here.  That may be why they are wanting gold standard studies before it is approved for the virus.  Just wondering.  I'd like to see it studied here much more and better.  Thanks.

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 7:08am

    #97

    davefairtex

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2136

    7+

    raoult's CFR

    Our friend Didier Raoult at the IHU hospital in Marseilles has a "hospitalized fatality rate" (if he manages to get 3+ days of HCQ down the patient) of 0.42%.

    Presumably, if one doesn't arrive at the hospital about to die, then Raoult will be able to give them 3+ days of his treatment, and 99.58% of his patients then survive.

    The "symptomatic fatality rate" of influenza .was - what - 0.12%?  The "hospitalization fatality rate" of influenza was 7.5%.  Of course, some of those influenza cases might arrive at the hospital about to die too, so its not really an apples & apples comparison.

    https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/covid-19/

    Someday we will give HCQ + z-pak to people routinely in an outpatient setting, without all the "OMG this Trump-branded medicine is horrible" nonsense, and we will - finally - be able to calculate the "treated SC2 fatality rate" and compare it to the "treated influenza fatality rate."

    I'm guessing at that point SC2 will be maybe 2-3 times more severe, but not more than that.

    If you catch it early.

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 7:14am

    #98

    Adam Taggart

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    Posts: 5663

    6+

    WHO: No evidence covid-19 'recovered' have immunity

    The WHO just published a scientific brief that concludes:

    WHO has published guidance on adjusting public health and social measures for the next phase of the COVID-19 response.1 Some governments have suggested that the detection of antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, could serve as the basis for an “immunity passport” or “risk-free certificate” that would enable individuals to travel or to return to work assuming that they are protected against re-infection. There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.

    Reading further, it seems the WHO is actually saying "there's no evidence...yet" and that research needs to be conducted to answer this specific question:

    WHO continues to review the evidence on antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection.2-17 Most of these studies show that people who have recovered from infection have antibodies to the virus. However, some of these people have very low levels of neutralizing antibodies in their blood,4 suggesting that cellular immunity may also be critical for recovery. As of 24 April 2020, no study has evaluated whether the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 confers immunity to subsequent infection by this virus in humans....

    ...At this point in the pandemic, there is not enough evidence about the effectiveness of antibody-mediated immunity to guarantee the accuracy of an “immunity passport” or “risk-free certificate.”

    Read the full brief here.

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 7:30am

    #99
    French connexion

    French connexion

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    Joined: Mar 26 2020

    Posts: 200

    3+

    Some pigs are more equal than others

    I was somewhat upset this morning in opening my telephone to find this:

    https://blogs.lexpress.fr/le-boulot-recto-verso/2020/04/24/raoult-bientot-suspendu-par-lordre-des-medecins/

     

    Sure, maybe it's Fake News. But at the very least it is Push Back - and I have never ever looked at l'Express - but I do look at Dr Didier's twitter.

     

    So maybe we can look at things a bit differently? I am not American. And I do not like the Globalist agenda - I am not looking for a debate here - I hate wasting my time.

    We are in a dire situation. Where if you believe the above article to be true, we have lost - totally lost - the protective relationship which we once had between doctor and patient. And what has been imposed?

    A new order - state order - where the state dictates how a patient in a certain condition is treated - it started with Vincent Lambert, who through a motorcycle accident was reduced to a vegative state but as they withdrew each element of life support he lived on. Until he was forbidden to be fed, by the state. And now we are forbidden to have HCQ+ treatment because...  You said it Chris - from the 11th minute on, there is no reason to do this other than to create a health panic.

    Chris, you have done a wonderful job showing the data, the p value in statistics - maybe I've got a whole bunch of things wrong with the science?

    I am feeling numb because I am over 65, on heart medications with a cardiologist who has thrown me on the roses (as we would say in France). I can't go and see Dr Didier if I wanted to, and have to play Russian roulette here with a system that you mention in the blog with Sparky posted above.

    So what does Dr Diddier say? Here is a post yesterday from his twitter:

    https://twitter.com/raoult_didier/status/1253634488346836994

    He talks about the leak from the WHO document.

    And what does someone post underneath?

    Scroll down to SkortenDj where he posts two clips about the French army receiving a shipment of the very dangerous Chloroquine from China.

    Sounds alot like Animal Farm to me - remember

    Some pigs are more equal than others.

    So let's hear it Chris, How do we break out of this? Without doing a Jim Morrison?

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 7:32am

    davefairtex

    Status: Member

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    Posts: 2136

    1+

    immunity & WHO-facts

    First of all, I'm going to label this a WHO-fact.  Is this WHO-fact as solid as "masks don't work?"  Or "no evidence of person-to-person transmission?"  Or "we should thank China for all their transparency?"

    It really reminds me of the New York Times, and "WMD in Iraq."

    Secondly, I am going to speculate that immunity may not be one of those binary things.  Like with the other ILIs, having partial immunity from a prior version helps your system defend itself from a new exposure.

    Since this is "novel" - no partial immunity from a prior exposure.  Second time around, who knows, might be an easier journey.

    Any corona virus experts here that can help us out as to how the other corona virus examples generally act?

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 7:43am

    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

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    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 445

    Just wondering....

    Might there be some of that ‘rigid ideology’ in your thinking on the who dunnit side of this?

    Jan

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 7:44am

    French connexion

    French connexion

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Mar 26 2020

    Posts: 200

    Maybe this works better?

    Very strange - Twitter alters the feed for the above link.

    To see what I am trying to show click on the original tweet and scroll down.

    https://twitter.com/raoult_didier

    The idea I am trying to convey is that Dr Raoult is like a Robin Hood for many - people are giving all sorts of information which Deep State (OK it is not necessarily a recognised organisation) does not want to hear.

    On your chart Chris - why can't we put something on the x axis like Light (on the left and Darkness) on the right.

    Being ridgid often gets mixed up with discipline.

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 7:59am

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2410

    Need more hints.

    westcoastjan wrote

    Might there be some of that ‘rigid ideology’ in your thinking on the who dunnit side of this?

    It looks like you are hinting at something.  I'll need more information to understand you though.  Please continue.

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 9:00am

    JWhite

    JWhite

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    Posts: 119

    4+

    Re: WHO immunity conclusions

    Agreed.  The wording in the conclusion is misleading.  Saying ‘there is no evidence’ or even ‘there is no evidence yet’ that antibodies confer immunity to re-infection of SC2 implies that this has been studied and no evidence was found.  In fact, there is no ‘conclusion’ - there is only an ‘observation’ that this has not been studied.

    But the question is a valid one: ‘Do SC2 antibodies confer immunity to re-infection?’ Many people are making the assumption that this is the case, and policy decisions are being made, or will be made, based on this assumption.

    We also need to know:
    - if yes, for how long? Permanently? One week? One season?
    - Do antibodies confer immunity for all strains / mutations of SC2 or only the strain that the individual originally contracted, or for a subset of the known strains / mutations?

    One reason these questions are important is that this virus is not like anything we have known before, there seems to be a debate as to its' origin, whether it does have ancestry in the natural world, and if so, whether it has been subject to manipulation in a lab.

    Hopefully those of us who contract the disease will have future immunity, but this needs to be studied before we can say there is 'evidence' or 'no evidence'.

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 9:11am

    Cia

    Cia

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    Posts: 16

    Link

    See the third link, the compilation of HCQ studied, below, I just sent it to several people, as I had also wanted a link. Dr. Bruce Thorne, reply to #6 (I think, I can’t easily scroll down to check).

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 9:35am

    DaveDD

    DaveDD

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    Re: immunity & WHO facts- maybe they are doing is a favor

    I was looking for ADE in the second wave of the Spanish flu when I stumbled on a Wikipedia page (with sources) about antibody dependent enhancement. Some nasty tests with rabbits did show the ADE effect for SARS. Maybe, just maybe, you do not want to have antibodies...(source).

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 9:55am

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Joined: Jul 21 2016

    Posts: 753

    5+

    Shout-out to Jane Doe of "Millennial Mind"

    PP member Jane Doe apparently has a blog entitled, "Millennial Mind" (link).

    Launched last September 2019, she's produced some very thoughtful and well-researched articles worth the read, IMO.

    Kudo's to you Jane for your initiative and journalistic activism! 🙂

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 10:05am

    AKTED

    AKTED

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 20 2020

    Posts: 16

    3+

    A Good Source o Data

    Hi,

    You might want to check out:

    https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

    at https://ourworldindata.org

    For a pretty comprehensive catalog of charts using frequently updated data.

    All the best,

    Ted

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 11:13am

    vshelford

    vshelford

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    Posts: 158

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    Re "People believe what they prefer to believe"

    Mots:
    In defense of personality typing, we should perhaps beware of assuming that all "F" types are emotionally driven at all times. When I studied the Myers-Briggs typology, it seemed clear that the "F" type was as capable of rational thought and discussion, as "T" types were of having guiding values. But if pushed to the wall for a decision, "F" would place values higher than logic in the pro-con list. Similarly the "T" type, while finding values important, would place logic ahead. As one who consistently tests out right on the line between the two (usually slightly more to the "F" side), I figure logic is like lumber - you need it to build a house - but it doesn't define the design or utility of the house. You need both logic and values to get it right, so you need both "types" to cooperate - indeed one of the values of the Myers-Briggs system is to recognize one's weaker functions and learn to strengthen those sides, to attain greater balance within yourself.

    My observation is that emotionalism - i.e. believing that what your emotions are telling you is true about any situation - is a trap either side can fall into when feeling threatened (or euphoric). But the only thing emotions can truly tell you, is how you are feeling. It's necessary to address this, because feeling negative or destructive emotions, or blindingly euphoric ones, can lead to bad decisions and actions. But emotionalism isn't, at least according to the original Myers-Briggs typology, a function of personality type.

    When addressing people who appear incapable of responding to rational arguments, it may be that they truly are incapable (i.e. not a in healthy personality state) or it may be that we are not addressing their actual concerns, because we are arguing for and to our own concerns.

    People believing what feels good to them can apply on any square of the personality grid. Truth is a slippery customer. Hey, I'm a "P" too, so I'm not necessarily disagreeing with much of your argument, just "adding data". ("P"s always want more data before coming to a final decision...)

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 11:50am

    taz1999

    taz1999

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    Joined: Feb 25 2020

    Posts: 45

    More facts?

    Came across:

    https://www.lifesitenews.com/blogs/two-california-emergency-room-covid-doctors-may-start-a-revolution-with-calm-science-data-based-press-conference-questioning-of-extreme-measures

    I scanned through the video (maybe someone has more patience than me)  From the scan, what I concluded was what was presented as facts and jumped on by commentators was pretty much free of any actual, reliable, data.  If your hypothesis is that HBV is a "plandemic" then formulate your test and present the data.

     

     

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 12:25pm

    Jasmineartemis

    Jasmineartemis

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    What’s your say on this?

    Hi Chris. Been watching your videos for about a month and a half now. I really value your data based thoughts and opinions. I was wondering what your thoughts were on this video.

     

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 12:49pm

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

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    No offense but Dr Erickson is a yoyo moron

    This guy is an idiot beyond belief.      He thinks that that 39% of new yorkers have had covid - and 12 % of california has had covid.. so therefore - the death rate is very very tiny.     He gets this from the tests done.   SO in new york this is random sample?   no its sick people.. in fact its very sick people.. they are not testing everyone and they are not testing mild people .. so yes you could imagine there are even more infected..  But to say that the tested people of 39% of tests are positive - relates to the total population - as if they tested the total population.. If this guy cant think through this - I certainly dont want such stupid dr near me.  These are the dangerous Drs.. these are the drs that kill people..  arrogant and stupid at the same time.    he got through med school on his looks alone.   Even with his stupid logic, .03 CFR  and 100% infected ( 50% now according to him almost )   equals 3 x the rate of death with 10x the rate of infection for the flu.. still would equal 30 x more dead than the flu...     But its not a problem for drs and his hospital handle while they handle all the  other medical conditions..

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 1:56pm

    Krollchem

    Krollchem

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    Joined: Jul 10 2012

    Posts: 24

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    further serological test flaws and quercetin

    The serological test for SARS-CoV-2 infection has a further problem with variable specificity issues as it is dependent on the percentage of the non-infected target population who have had a common cold coronavirus (HKU1, NL63, OC43, or 229E) yielding residual IgG-IgM antibodies. For example, a study that found the high positive percentage of homeless for COVID-19 infection was highly biased by the incidence of prior cold virus exposure from living rough.

    It appears that there is too much emphasis on Hydroxychloroquine.
    Could you evaluate Quercetin plus zinc as an alternative to Hydroxychloroquine alternative in a upcoming youtube video. See Medcram 59 for further discussion on this and additional preventative and decontamination measures. The presentation could have been improved by mentioning whether the Quercetin was pure or in the liposomal or phytosomal form. Worth mentioning that Quercetin availability is also dependent on microbial flora ecology which in turn is dependent on fiber intake. Fiber in turn is decomposed into nutrients that improve colon health such as butyrate that may reduce intestinal damage upon viral infections.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304394016300775

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 2:46pm

    Mots

    Mots

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    Re "People believe what they prefer to believe"

    Vshelford thank you for your comments.
    I agree with you.  It  is not correct to judge other people, not the least because people vary in many ways and are always changing at least to some extent.

    Still, I propose that we need to withdraw in some ways from the public sphere, or at least prepare our communities wherein we can ride out the dark ages, which clearly have arrived.  I think that we need to divert some of our attention away from fruitless arguments in public, which only (counter-productively) serve to identify ourselves as deviants/obstacles to the fiat worshipers.

    We must treat everyone equally and with respect.  The proper way to do this with a totally irrational and illogical person (the majority) who is merely following the money, is to walk away and not continue to argue (down) to them.  We must respect their irrationality and in fact can only agree with them because their title or agency decides the facts and conclusions.  After all, the goal of their arguments and studies is NOT truth, based on logical thought, but instead, money, or power.  We must respect everyone and not judge others based on their preference for money over truth.  The only way I can see to that is to walk away and only deal with other rational thinkers, which again, are in a minority.  History repeats itself (or at least rhymes) and we can see the same thing happening again.  Original bastions of rationality such as WHO/FDA/CDC seem to be filled, or at least dominated by irrational minds who are merely worshiping money or power.  An argument that leads to their power or authority is always the correct one.  That is their rule and we should respect their god given right to live their lives that way.

    Respecting the money worshipers may require withdrawal into our own communities and private communication systems (which we should set up in my opinion).  During the 1930s (the last depression) rational thinkers who publicly opposed the fascists were attacked and even killed, and entire group or groups (Jewish communities) were enemies of the state.  The fortunate ones, the ones who fared the best were those who realized this truth early on and got the hell out of Germany early, which in our case may be : escape into resilience communities of our own making.

    I like the Japanese in this regard because they learned during the long samurai period not to argue with the money/power worshipers.  The samurai lived in privileged high class regions of the big city and the villagers would simply bow, or nod their heads in agreement until the damn thing left their village.  They still have this survival tactic, which is the reason why it is so hard to figure out what a Japanese person really thinks when smiling and bowing to an unknown person or authority figure, to this very day.

    I am afraid that "taking on" the money (and credentialed power) worshipers by continually disagreeing with them in public is counterproductive particularly since they win the make believe arguments (winning equals money/power/prestige and not an increase or discovery of truth) by possession of a title at an agency.  Insulting them by lofty appeals to logic is demeaning to them and merely serves being placed on a domestic terrorist list.

    Regarding solutions: PP is a good oasis, and a good forum for finding others to build resilient communities with.  A next step, as rational thinkers are progressively discriminated against (thinking about Germany 1930's again) is to go underground, via private communications outside the control of the fiat money worshipers.

     

     

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 4:59pm

    sofistek

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2008

    Posts: 735

    3+

    Are gloves of any use?

    Most days I try to find some data on the effect of wearing gloves on contracting/spreading the virus. I haven't been able to find any. For health workers in full PPE, maybe they are simply a method of enabling a full outer layer of protection that can be disposed of at the end of each shift (or more frequently) so that any virus particles are also disposed of. However, for the public, it seems to me that wearing gloves doesn't offer any protection above what wearing a mask provides.

    Does anyone know of any information on the efficacy of gloves?

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 5:31pm

    Krollchem

    Krollchem

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    Joined: Jul 10 2012

    Posts: 24

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    Paper on statistical flaws of the Stanford study

    More on the statistical flaws of the serological test
    https://medium.com/@balajis/peer-review-of-covid-19-antibody-seroprevalence-in-santa-clara-county-california-1f6382258c25

    No mention that this serological test yields very high false positives “due to past or present infection with non-SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus strains, such as coronavirus HKU1, NL63, OC43, or 229E.” Yes, if a person has had a common cold they would likely test positive!!!

    COVID-19 IgM/IgG Rapid Test

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 6:33pm

    EmJayGee

    EmJayGee

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    Joined: Mar 13 2020

    Posts: 13

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    The value of gloves

    I think the value of gloves is not preventing infection directly, as much as making it relatively easy to transition from an infected zone to a clean zone by just removing the gloves.

    That's my working model at least. I also have a new kitten and thus my hands have significant wounds on them so perhaps they have some level of direct impact also in such cases.

    When I was out earlier this week and had to pump gas, I was able to take off my gloves and throw them in the trash. If I didn't have the gloves, I would have tried to use the paper towels there. I think the gloves are a better plan. It's not like I had soap and water available in my minivan for a nice wash before moving ahead.

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 6:58pm

    Reya

    Reya

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    Joined: Apr 25 2020

    Posts: 1

    efficacy of gloves and Covid-19

    Sofistek,  I cannot speak to the efficacy of gloves, but with much thought about this subject myself, I can only think of a few instances that gloves might be a logical choice.  In medical environments for various reasons, and for those that may not be able to wash their hands frequently whether its the access to a sink and soap or if the hands are injured or too chapped for frequent washing.  Aside from that, gloves are unnecessary, wasteful, and often spread more disease for lack of frequent washing.

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 7:02pm

    sofistek

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Oct 02 2008

    Posts: 735

    2+

    Gloves for cuts

    Yes, EmJayGee, if you have cuts on your hand then a glove would help block that path. That had occurred to me but, in general, I don't yet see the need for gloves. That's good because I hate disposable anything, though I'd probably use the time method of deactivating any virus on the gloves, so I could reuse them, if possible.

    As for washing hands, just make sure you keep some hand sanitizer available - perhaps put a dispenser in the car?

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 7:46pm

    A.nony.mouse

    A.nony.mouse

    Status: Member

    Joined: Oct 19 2009

    Posts: 3

    8+

    Free Hydroxychloroquine in Italy

    In Italy, in Piedmont, Hydroxychloroquine is available for FREE at any of the 1500 local pharmacies for home treatment.

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 8:06pm

    loj-ikul

    loj-ikul

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Mar 03 2020

    Posts: 55

    4+

    Gloves cover fingernails

    The one reason I can think of is bacteria can hide under fingernails so probably applies to viruses which are much smaller.  https://www.ijcmas.com/6-8-2017/Mohsen%20Hashim%20Risan.pdf

    Longer nails can hide more bacteria than short nails. I cut mine short and usually do not wear gloves in public. If a person does not have hand sanitizer available I would think its best to wear gloves in a place like a supermarket and throw them away after leaving the store.

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 8:47pm

    Quercus bicolor

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Mar 19 2008

    Posts: 404

    1+

    Still in flight

    Number of deaths: as of Monday when testing was performed:

    Now for the death rate: 17000/8.4million *.212 = 0.95%

    Steve – sorta, but not quite.  One more distinction.  A final CFR and/or IFR only applies to resolved cases.  You are calculating something that is still ‘in flight.’

    NY still has 224,936 active cases.  Many of those will resolve without death, but some of them will end in death.  In other words, it’s certain that your calculation will end higher (unless NYC suddenly has a lot of births or immigration to add to the denominator).

    That's right Chris, not quite.  I was trying to approximate for the "still in flight" factor by assuming that about 2750 deaths (about 6 days worth) had yet to occur.  I'm eager to get a number now, but I understand that reality might prove to be different when everything resolves weeks or months (or years?) from now.

    And, of course, what I'm calculating is the IFR of 1% - so if everyone or nearly everyone gets it whether they become an official case or now, the USA will lose nearly 1% of it's population or about 3 million people.

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 10:07pm

    JacquiD

    JacquiD

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    Joined: Apr 19 2020

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    Maybe an answer to the Hydroxychloroquine issue?

    One of the continuing threads of Chris's videos is the mystery around hydroxychloroquine and why the shoddy research and misleading headlines about its efficacy.  I love a mystery and have been intrigued by this as it just doesn't make any sense.  I have just finished reading a recent blog post by Bill Gates. that someone posted on facebook.  I was a bit taken aback about it, because it reads as if he has the master plan for the world, and it just doesn't sit right with me, but that's not why I am commenting here, now. It was one of the COMMENTS beneath his article that struck me:  I am quoting directly a small bit from a much longer comment"........... The African People will not die massively from Covid-19 - no! They will die because all the countrys took the malaria medication away from them, to treat covid-sick people in Europe ...."

    I went on to google 'hydroxychloroquine shortage in Africa' and found quite a few articles talking about shortages of this drug, which is extremely important for lupus patients, here's just one: https://jamanetwork.com/channels/health-forum/fullarticle/2764607.

    SO MAYBE there is, somewhere, an acknowledgment that HCQ IS indeed effective for COVID BUT if the word gets out would sudden increased demand make it difficult to have enough for malaria or lupus patients?  That's what this lady seems to be worried about.

    This is just a thought. If you read through the Bill Gates article, he mentions HCQ in a very short section of his blog on 'treatments'   "...Another class of drugs works by changing how the human body reacts to the virus. Hydroxychloroquine is in this group. The foundation is funding a trial that will give an indication of whether it works on COVID-19 by the end of May. It appears the benefits will be modest at best (my bold)

    Could it be that certain parties don't want to let it be thought that HCQ can work until production can be ramped up to avoid hoarding which would leave a lot of people currently dependent upon HCQ at risk? (remember toilet paper)? That could be the best interpretation, if my ideas have any merit.

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  • Sat, Apr 25, 2020 - 11:02pm

    dtrammel

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 03 2011

    Posts: 804

    8+

    Is the "Open The Economy" Protesters Setting Themselves Up

    Canadian Prepper makes a good point in his latest videos, that the people now protesting the self quarantine lock down and pushing the government to reopen the economy, are probably setting themselves up to be scrap goated when the invivable second wave hits society hard.

    We've all seen the pictures of the protesters, without masks and without social distancing and said to ourselves "well there is a crock pot of virus infections about to hit!"

    When it happens will the Elite and the government crack down even harsher, on civil liberties and rights?

    I do think there are groups in society who want to use this crisis to further their agenda. Are the protesters making that easier?

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 5:45am

    robie robinson

    robie robinson

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    Joined: Aug 25 2009

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    Protesters against the shut down

    started in earnest, a week ago. Stands to reason their ranks should be running a fever any day. Do they tend from rural america? Should see infection rates increase in their geo ethnic group.

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 7:26am

    lmcdel

    lmcdel

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    Joined: Jul 12 2012

    Posts: 22

    HCQ shortages

    As far as I know, HCQ shortages were felt immediately upon its broadcast to the world. A friend on Facebook was sharing at least a month ago that her lupus-afflicted friend was not able to find any, and it was getting scary. It is also used to treat rheumatoid arthritis. Your idea makes sense to me.

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 7:41am

    David McKenney

    David McKenney

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    Joined: Mar 25 2020

    Posts: 84

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    Some facts about HCQ

    https://qcostarica.com/hydroxychloroquine-the-drug-costa-rica-uses-successfully-to-fight-covid-19/

    1. Why is Costa Rica DFR 1.2/1 million while the US is 137/1 million? That's 114 X.

    2. Why does Costa Rica avoid using Azithromycin with HCQ?

    3. Where is HCQ made?

    4. How long are we going to put up with this BS.

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 7:48am

    David McKenney

    David McKenney

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    Joined: Mar 25 2020

    Posts: 84

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    Costa Rica case fatality rate

    https://www.reddit.com/r/AntiHateAlliance/comments/g672uy/costa_rica_is_using_hydroxychloroquine_to_treat/

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 8:13am

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2410

    11+

    Canadian pharmacies stock and ship HCQ to US

    canadacloudpharmacy.com and https://www.canadawidepharmacy.com both have HCQ in stock and will ship to US addresses.  Others will too.

    ------------

    Governors of 11 US states (last I checked) have issued emergency orders to not allow unrestricted prescribing of HCQ for SC2.  The regulations are targeted at pharmacists, rather than doctors.  (The doctor can write a prescription but the pharmacy is prohibited from filling it.)

    Combine this with having state medical societies act against the license of doctors who give vitamin C and you are going to get "rule 308" invoked.

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 8:30am

    MQ

    MQ

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    Posts: 122

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    Sunday hymn--good for the whole week...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=291&v=1eR0ckpJ3bk&feature=emb_logo&fbclid=IwAR0XUjKGeHflLHGXGoqij5jmzqdM7G9G9vcovuTxIUhZ1HRnBxAOSKXVzTQ

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 8:43am

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1045

    3+

    Is the "Open The Economy" Protesters Setting Themselves Up

    Maybe or maybe people are so afraid that’s what they are hoping.

    For some people freedom may be preferable to living in fear and under tyranny

    A good reminder -

    First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—
    Because I was not a Socialist.

    Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—
    Because I was not a Trade Unionist.

    Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
    Because I was not a Jew.

    Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

    Martin Niemöller

     

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 8:46am

    MQ

    MQ

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    Posts: 122

    7+

    disposable PPE--maybe not the best idea?

    Why is so much of PPE made to be for one use? Couldn't more of it be made of material that could be worn once, washed in hot water with bleach, dried in a hot dryer and worn again and again and again... Bigger outlay to begin with, but much harder to run out of. Shouldn't we be finding our way out of this disposable society?

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 9:38am

    yagasjai

    yagasjai

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 18 2009

    Posts: 118

    Does Half Face Respirator Filter Air Going Out As Well As In?

    Back in mid-March, when we were discussing these respirators on this list, I purchased a 3M Half Facepiece Reusable Respirator 6100/07024 (AAD) Small with  2097 P100 filters. I have not used it yet, got it as a backup for myself or my mom if we needed it. And am now considering giving it to a dear friend who is disabled and lives far away. She has not been able to keep up with cleaning at her apartment. She needs someone to come in to clean. I have another friend who lives near her who could go in and do the cleaning. But there is no way to know if the able-bodied friend could be an asymptomatic carrier. So I would like to know whether the respirator I purchased would filter both air going OUT as well as air coming IN. The woman having trouble cleaning is in a high risk group, so wants to be as careful as possible about having anyone in her space without proper protection for filtering the air they breathe out into her space. Does anyone know if this respirator would do the trick? I have a few extra regular N95 masks but they all have easy flow valves, so would not filter the air being exhaled by the person doing the cleaning.

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 10:00am

    davefairtex

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2136

    10+

    enough to go around

    It could be that until there is "enough to go around", HCQ won't be seen to be all that effective.  Meanwhile, the well-connected will be able to get theirs, likely as prophylaxis.

    Prophylaxis for them, while the great unwashed can only be treated at hospitals or within the framework of a RCT.

    Call me crazy.

    https://crstoday.com/articles/not-rated/hydroxychloroquine-for-the-treatment-and-prevention-of-covid-19/

    Earlier this year, after the outbreak of COVID-19 in China, clinicians there noticed that none of the first 178 COVID-19 patients admitted to the hospital had lupus.7 The clinicians then evaluated 80 lupus patients treated in the hospital’s dermatology department and found that none was infected with COVID-19. This observation prompted researchers to evaluate hydroxychloroquine in vitro for the treatment and prevention of COVID-19. Not only did hydroxychloroquine treat cells infected with the virus that causes COVID-19, but the drug also protected cells from becoming infected.8

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 10:23am

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 701

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    Thinking more about Dr Erickson's video and numbers

    Besides the fact that he used crazy science and math to come to his findings that 39% of ny state has been infected to validate a .003 CRF,  I have still tossed numbers around to try see , even if a large % were infected what would be a realistic CFR.  Its sort of like a head-splinter this moron gave me.

    Just doing the math using the flu again.,  because he has really dismissed the mortality of the disease to the same as common flu. right?     Normally in a given flu season NYC would see total deaths around 850 people.   They have seen 30 times this.  In 3 weeks.. If it were the whole year, I could understand.  Of course you would have a higher percent of the population infected.   So, this would only hold true to equal those possible numbers over the next year,   IF about 90% of the population has yet to be infected.    But using that 39% infected..  39% x 8,5M =  9900 deaths.   ( but this is not the 23k we have already. )   We would have to be at virtually 100% infection rate for this to be close.  But, just looking at the graphs, you would think by the daily deaths its likely we are not even on the down slope of a bell curve.  So its likely that we are not even at the half the case deaths.   So he is off by a factor of 1 there plus we would also have to be at 100% infection rate - that is another factor of 1.. so as I have said in another post, the minimum for this so far is 1% CFR and only can go up.  I am not sure how many infected and how many will die.. but considering a finite amount of people in NY state and guaranteed dead so far..  This is a total of greater than .1% mortality rate of the total population.   assuming that the flu estimate of .1% is correct..and the flu infectivity  per year is 8-15%    its 10 times the flu already... so it cannot be lower than 1%. CFR.      And I approximate by the death rates still occuring that we are not past peak.  So you can make this 2% minimal.   And that is with all the lockdown implementations.    The death rate is a variable based on quality of care.  The truth is , the real death rate of an infection would be how many will it kill without medical intervention.   Anyhow, I am just dumbfounded by the logic of these people making this a CFR near the flu or something less than .5%    There is no way my head-splinter allows me to digest this..  I am not saying its 5-10 % though it certainly could be but realistically, its already 1-2%......... and no way .5 or .3 % .. its just absurd thinking.. enough to cramp my brain with this faulty logic..  I cannot wrap my head around that 12-15 or 50% of the population has had this, I know a few people who have been sick, but its less than 1 in 20 in my circle   And many live in hot spots.   I know of no one in my local community ( city /county) that has been infected.   For a disease that runs a long course, usually 3-5 weeks, You would think there would be a ton of sick people around even with mild illness.   They are actually trying to convince us , you get it and dont even know...  and that would also have to go into their logic.. I do believe in presymptomatic phase but do not believe most have asymptomatic disease..  If any at all.  I have seen many many more sick in a bad flu season..    Again empirical and anecdotal evidence just doesnt agree with the logic being spewed.. They nothing but blind belief and supposition to back this up.

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 10:32am

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2410

    4+

    Three Ophthalmologists Recommend HCQ for prophyllaxis of SC2

    The link DaveF reminded me that this is a good overview and should be brought to the front page again.  3 Ophthalmologists write a recommendation for "eye care professionals" to lesson their risk of infection by using HCQ.   It is published in Cataract & Refractive Surgery Today.

    Hydroxychloroquine for the Treatment and Prevention of COVID-19:  A review of the evidence and explanation of why this drug is a crucial element of prophylaxis for health care workers.

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 10:58am

    JWhite

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    Good Question

    I also bought a couple of half masks from a German company, just in case we wanted them in future, but did not consider this question.  You could write or call 3M to ask them, or perhaps you could consider asking the cleaning person to wear a surgical mask over top of the N95 mask and maybe this would protect all concerned (provided the person can still breathe while wearing 2 masks!).  If there are a limited number of extra masks, they could be used in a rotation of 9 - 10 days between each use, as Chris has suggested.

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 11:10am

    nordicjack

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    RE:half respirator outlet valve

    the consensus is these are designed to protect the wearer only.  You need to wear a paper mask over them .

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 11:13am

    JWhite

    JWhite

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    Protesters in America

    Personally I've been surprised about the Civil Liberties demonstrations and have had trouble understanding them.  My impression is that here in Europe the restrictions are more severe than what has been implemented in North America, but people are being very patient and are abiding by the imposed curfews and rules.  I'm not aware of any protests or demonstrations here, and I also read that even citizens and businesses in Sweden want more restrictions.  It seems that these protesters don't understand this virus, and the need for PPE and keeping away from others (and more importantly, the air they are breathing out!).

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 11:49am

    David McKenney

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    Liars, liars, and more liars

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 11:54am

    loj-ikul

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    Reply to JacquiD's comment regarding HCQ.

    Its possible about HCQ shortages though in my opinion that is an excuse used to not give it to outpatients.

    Watch this video in its entirety and you might come to a conclusion something more sinister is currently happening. I came across this video by accident while I was researching information on Artemisia ( a herbal medicine from China). I was amazed by what I discovered and the similarities to what is happening with HCQ.

    The video is 40 minutes long and discusses how Artemisia works for curing and preventing malaria. Its dirt cheap, can be grown locally and works.  The WHO and bill gates were also involved deeply in that as well. They made sure people do not readily know about it and its not widely used as a treatment. A person can come to their own conclusions why.

    The entire video.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvC4uSYprU8

    An intro for those who do not have time:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIyy-VYURS4

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 11:59am

    loj-ikul

    loj-ikul

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    Put tape on the inside over the exit valve.

    I use a respirator with a one way valve and put tape over it on the inside of the mask and jam spongy foam under the plastic vent. I noticed there is very little to no exhale from the wearer.

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 12:02pm

    Daddy-O McDadstein

    Daddy-O McDadstein

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    Dollars regardless of deaths

    I like the elderberry supplement information. And I'm not surprised at all by the greed and chicanery of the medical research/regulatory apparatchiks in ignoring decades of "safe and effective" use of hydroxychloroquine. It is evident that they are determined to find a new treatment—one that will cost a lot of money and make a lot of money for some corporation—as part of the revolving-door-function between FDA leadership and pharma management. All that while people are being sickened and and are dying.

    But the flap about the President's “disinfectant” statement is unfortunate. In fact, the comment, sarcasm or not, is right on target. I and a lot of people use a disinfectant every day, getting silver ions or colloids into our bloodstream and tissues. It is known as an antimicrobial agent, used extensively in burn centers and increasingly in packaging, in fabrics, in disinfectants, because it kills microbes.

    It’s very simple. Silver kills viruses fast. It is safe for internal use—or I’d certainly be suffering negative effects after nearly 20 years of using it, and eating utensils wouldn't be made out of it—but it won’t gain notoriety for a researcher or megaprofits for a pharmaceutical company. So the FDA won’t say a positive thing about it and the media won’t either, regardless of the fact that people are dying and being maimed for life by this novel virus. Regardless also of the fact that in the '30s the FDA actually did a study on it--I found it online maybe 15 years ago but didn't think I'd need to make a copy of the document. I remember with absolute clarity that they found colloidal silver to cure over 600 diseases in the days before penicillin. It cost a lot to make then as the technologies hadn't evolved.

    I don't need to see a study on its efficacy, as it cured my 2 year episode of CEBV, my cat's obviously soon-to-be terminal case of urinary tract infection, my friend's shingles, as well as cases of conjunctivitis, strep throat, stomach ulcers, lyme disease...

    There are a lot of people making their own silver solution at low cost. They tend not to get sick.

    If someone would simply do the (effing!) studies, it would be proven to be both safe and effective--very effective.

    But since anyone can make it, there’s nothing in it for pharma or their bureaucrat enablers. That means the media won’t be able to sell ad time, so they won't say it works safely. And the public continue to give credence to that now obviously toxic cabal and keep on getting sick.

    The system is malfunctioning severely, because the focus is on dollars regardless of deaths.

    (And now I wait for the ubiquitous troll.)

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 12:49pm

    nordicjack

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    My plan - AND I will do my best to make this happen

    I am going to do everything I can to make sure all these people are prosecuted for the actions against the citizens of the country.  This includes governors prohibiting prescribing and dispensing of HCQ and all authorities and officials and media writers that have stated this was the flu and nothing to see here or have falsely , relayed facts on transmissibility ,  ( recommending no face masks for public etc)  how long the virus lives on surfaces,  or cannot be transmitted by contact surfacecs and only in close contact etc.

    I believe sentencing for such crimes should easily be 1 year for each life they have taken and 6 mos for each disability they have caused.  AND forfeiture of all assets to the victims families..

    I will bring back , every tape, video, law, recommendation to court .. and shove it so deep on each everyone of these people's ass who have now be proved so criminally reckless and clearly wrong .   There are enough laws on the books to bring these charges in virtual all states.    I will force each state attorney to enact the laws or face charges and sentencing as well.

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 1:01pm

    mlee952

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    why put tape over the exit valve?

    Why put tape over the exit valve?

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 1:22pm

    bbach1

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    Who's dying? Any data on age demographic?

    Chris, I have listened to almost every update since you started this service and it has been so valuable. So thank you so much for all of the time you have invested. The one area that it seems very difficult to find any data on, is the age demographic of deaths from covid19. David Stockman did a recent interview and really blasted closing the economy instead of just having the elderly stay home. So that sent me in search of data on the age demographic and it almost seems like that info is being suppressed. Why? Maybe Stockman has a valid point. The only time I read about how this kills people under say 40 it seems like it's mostly intended to create fear not facts. I did find one graphic that did a bar chart by age and almost all fatalities were 80+. Heck even the 60-70 and 70-80 numbers were very low. It was almost entirely the 80+ group that had succumbed to make up the total deaths occurring from this disease. Can you comment? Thanks again so much for your service. Brad

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 1:35pm

    mlee952

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    bank fees

    Chris,

    The banks issuing the Small Business loans ARE at risk.  Not saying they deserve all the fees they receive, but they are at risk if the business does not pay.

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 2:11pm

    sofistek

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    Cover the valve

    mlee952, you put tape over the exit valve because you don't want your exhalation be be unrestricted (you might have Covid-19). Ideally, don't wear masks with such valves but if that's all you can get, cover the valve. Note, this doesn't mean you can't exhale or inhale, just that they will all be filtered, catching virus particles in either direction.

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 2:34pm

    Daddy-O McDadstein

    Daddy-O McDadstein

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    I saw it coming

    In the US, there will always be that Wild West, rugged individualist element. From watching too many westerns and reading too many comic books. It is ignorant. It is deplorable, but expected. And it is why this country will be hit very, very hard by this pandemic. American flags and paramilitary gear do not have antiviral properties--to borrow a phrase from Dr. John Campbell.

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 3:03pm

    tourcarve

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    Cover the Valve - Yes!

    Several weeks ago a commenter posted a video from Czech Republic about their wearing of masks to stop the spread. The young woman said, "I protect you and you protect me" ... "I protect you and you protect me."

    Kind of a powerful focus.

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 3:48pm

    AKGrannyWGrit

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    Re - I saw it coming

    In the US, there will always be that Wild West, rugged individualist element. From watching too many westerns and reading too many comic books. It is ignorant. It is deplorable, but expected. And it is why this country will be hit very, very hard by this pandemic. American flags and paramilitary gear do not have antiviral properties–to borrow a phrase from Dr. John Campbell.

    Thats right, some of us are an independent breed.  It comes from The Constitution not. comic books! You can easily tell the difference, the braying of sheep versus those who believe New Hampshires motto “Live Free or Die”.  How insulting to call us ignorant and deplorable.  That says more about you than us.

    AKGrannyWGrit

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 4:05pm

    dtrammel

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    Not Thinking It Through or Are Others Doing It?

    In the US, there will always be that Wild West, rugged individualist element. From watching too many westerns and reading too many comic books. It is ignorant. It is deplorable, but expected. And it is why this country will be hit very, very hard by this pandemic.

    Protesters don't seem to be thinking their action through very well.

    If their objective was to prove that the heavy social restrictions were unnecessary, then they should have taken a page from the Israelis. They held a protest and the organizers went to the square before hand and marked off Xs every 6 feet. Protesters then stood one to an X and showed they could protest and still maintain social distancing.

    https://www.axios.com/israel-black-flag-protests-coronavirus-netanyahu-0a984050-9438-42ee-8126-e624e7427fc1.html

    Compare that to the pictures coming out of the US.

    Based on the polls, I think the majority of people understand the seriousness of this health crisis and the need to take it slow on easing the restrictions. People need to trust that they won't get sick if they go back to work.

    The way the protesters here went about it, doesn't inspire much confidence that people won't. We will almost certainly see a rise in case of sick people in the next week or two. This will be attributed to the protesters by the Media, whether its true or not.

    You have a tailor made optic with the nurses out there, counter protesting in their scrubs. You don't want to risk the heroes of our war on the virus, do you? Scenes of protesters screaming foul insults at HCWs will make great ad copy when the next step is launched.

    I'm not big on conspiracies but given the very small number of protesters at the rallies, the over coverage both Mainstream and Conservative Media gave it, the way many big donors on the Conservative side are distancing themselves from the rallies (we didn't fund these people), all adds up to me as a plan to use this later to push further restrictions of rights and liberties.

    After all if you can't act like adults, why should the government treat you as one?

    The next thing down the pipe is going to be aggressive contact tracing once testing gets past its bottle neck. The only way we can really open the economy is if we can identify those who have the virus and those who they contacted. Contact tracing, like cell phone location data, tells alot more than just one thing.

    To do that you have to step all over privacy issues, mandate tracing apps on all people's phones and Chinese style "non-infected passports", restricting movement and who works and who doesn't. Americans will fight that unless the government can show that "some" people can't be trusted and will make the rest of us sick if we don't all give up our privacy and our freedoms.

    Google and Apple claim they will delete the date from their trackers once the crisis is over BUT what if the crisis is never over?

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 5:15pm

    JWhite

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    On the idea of simply protecting the elderly

    It may be a bit more complicated for the U.S. (and also Canada and the U.K).

    In addition to the elderly, 2 other groups are at risk:
    - Those with comorbidities (some with a higher risk than others)
    - Obese individuals

    The CDC has a Covid19 warning relating to the risk for obese indivduals.
    https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/adult/index.html
    From CDC site – ‘latest statistics on adult obesity in the United States’:
    “In 2017–2018, the age-adjusted prevalence of obesity in adults was 42.4%....
    The prevalence of severe obesity was highest among adults aged 40–59 compared with other age groups.”

    Since the pandemic has generally been spreading East to West, the highest death rates have been shown to be in the higher age groups.  However in North America there are significant numbers of younger people who fall into the other risk groups above. Therefore, age may not be the only demographic to consider in the assessment of risks for North Americans.

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  • Sun, Apr 26, 2020 - 7:38pm

    nordicjack

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    Observed Pattern in the Numbers

    I have noticed a pattern for quite a while in the numbers.   I am now beginning to wonder what its relevance is and if someone has a historical way of charting this.  As , I have not recorded the historical.

    What I have noticed is , unlike what you would think , the more testing and the more cases diagnosed , the higher the death rates are.     Basically , they theory early on was those who did the most testing the lower the death rate was.. which would confirm that the early cases diagnosed were because of severity.

    What I have seen in a similar pattern , basically everywhere, is that the longer testing goes on, and the more testing and diagnosis occur, the higher the death rates.  We even watched this with germany , that has now increased its early death rates significantly.  Can anyone explain what is going on with this? and what might be the reason .. AND provide historical data to this fact?

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  • Mon, Apr 27, 2020 - 2:28am

    zsorenson

    zsorenson

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    zsorenson said:

     the more testing and the more cases diagnosed , the higher the death rates are.

    Interesting. A doubter today told me that "places with lockdowns are doing worse than places without lockdowns". There might be a correlation rather than causation factor.

    Maybe as the crisis unfolds in some places, it provokes both a desire to increase testing, and also leads to an increasing number of deaths.

    If that's not the case, then the answer is that more people die of COVID than we think - probably because ARDS is far from the only critical symptom produced by COVID, and we're still viewing the disease too narrowly.

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  • Mon, Apr 27, 2020 - 6:10am

    AssessX

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    Sometimes the Truth is so Plainly Stated

    Hence the term: "Silver Bullet"

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  • Mon, Apr 27, 2020 - 6:18am

    Daddy-O McDadstein

    Daddy-O McDadstein

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    Daddy-O McDadstein said:

    Sure, the Constitutions gives everyone the right to do silly things, like wave the flag in protest of sensible--and necessary--restrictions. Maybe your flag and your AK actually do have antiviral properties.

    Did you protest the requirement to wear seat belts, I wonder? Did that not seem like a great infringement on your rights? It did to me at the time. Then I grew up.

    Is it "ruggedly independent thinking" to join with protesters and "stupid sheep thinking" to join with those hoping to slow a deadly pandemic? If so, please explain the difference. Maybe they are actually both flocks of sheep and the first one is going to slaughter.

    Hey, go for it. Just try not to get anyone else sick after you contract it. And don't add to the burden of healthcare providers. Be independent and shed your viruses at home.

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  • Mon, Apr 27, 2020 - 10:12am

    Grover

    Grover

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    Silver Bullet

    Daddy-O McDadstein wrote:

    There are a lot of people making their own silver solution at low cost. They tend not to get sick.

    If someone would simply do the (effing!) studies, it would be proven to be both safe and effective–very effective.

    But since anyone can make it, there’s nothing in it for pharma or their bureaucrat enablers. That means the media won’t be able to sell ad time, so they won’t say it works safely. And the public continue to give credence to that now obviously toxic cabal and keep on getting sick.

    The system is malfunctioning severely, because the focus is on dollars regardless of deaths.

    Daddy-O,

    I've been using a colloidal/ionic silver solution (~10 PPM) for about 7 years and have been making it myself for about 6 years. I only used it when I started to feel crappy; however, with SC2, I'm a little more concerned due to its potentially long and asymptomatic incubation period. Now, I inhale a nebulized vapor (about 1/2 teaspoon of 10 PPM solution) on a weekly basis.

    Here's an article from 2017 titled: The silver lining: towards the responsible and limited usage of silver

    https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jam.13525#jam13525-bib-0013

    Summary

    Silver has attracted a lot of attention as a powerful, broad spectrum and natural antimicrobial agent since the ancient times because of its nontoxic nature to the human body at low concentrations. It has been used in treatment of various infections and ulcers, storage of water and prevention of bacterial growth on the surfaces and within materials. However, there are numerous medical and health benefits of colloidal or nanosilver apart from its microbicidal ability which as yet has not been fully embraced by the medical community. These include antiplatelet activity, antioxidant effect, anticancer activity, wound healing and bone regeneration, enhancement of immunity, and increase in antibiotic efficiency. Additionally silver also provides protection against alcohol toxicity, upper respiratory tract infections and stomach ailments. Although nanosilver has been proposed for various topical applications, its usage by ingestion and inhalation remains controversial due to the lack of detailed and precise toxicity information. These beneficial properties of silver can be utilized by using silver at very low concentrations which are not harmful to the human body and environment. The following review discusses the diverse medical applications of silver and further recommends human clinical studies for its in vivo usage.

    and here's a cartoon version from the linked article of how silver stops viruses from replicating.

    image

    There's lots of good stuff in the article! The headings are pretty good so you can scan through quickly and delve into the items of interest.

    Grover

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  • Mon, Apr 27, 2020 - 10:28am

    Daddy-O McDadstein

    Daddy-O McDadstein

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    Grover, Thanks For the Info

    Really glad to find someone else who has experienced the benefits of silver. Man, when my EBV had me down for two whole years, I would have drunk mule piss if someone told me it would heal me. Fortunately someone told me about colloidal silver. I took two doses of 500ppm over about a 12 hour period. All symptoms disappeared within 36 hours. Blam. Like magic.

    But the lack of scientific study on safe dosages is a problem. So far the only negative side effects that I know of are argyra and the possibility of killing off all the good microbes in the gut (I did that once. Took 3 doses in one day without eating yogurt between.)

    I will check out your article later today. But how I wish that everyone already knew about this. Especially the Navy. I served on a warship and I stayed sick a lot of the time due to close quarter berthing and working conditions and not the best ventilation. I fear for our military preparedness. I know that dosing with silver would simply keep the sailors well and our forces prepared.

    Dicey times, you know.

    Again, Grover, thanks.

     

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  • Mon, Apr 27, 2020 - 11:02am

    JWhite

    JWhite

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    Re: observation on death rates with increased testing

    As an observation, there have been inconsistencies in testing which may lead to your observation.  Some areas that were doing extensive testing initially, changed their policy to only test those with symptoms, or to only test those who presented at a hospital.  One reason this happened was that there were insufficient test kits available in the beginning, and in some cases the test kits were flawed, leading to inaccurate results.  Northern Italy for example, did extensive testing at the beginning of their crisis, but then ran out of test kits and changed their policy to only test those with symptoms.  Other countries or areas have also changed their testing policies this way - I have seen references to Sweden, China and other countries changing policy part way through the pandemic.  Although more people are now being tested due to the spread of the virus, if only those with symptoms, or those who are admitted to hospital are tested, then the death rates may be higher for this reason.  Some areas test after death and others do not, and some have recently started testing after death to determine the cause.  Some areas did not test at all initially, or tested very little, until the pandemic was obviously a problem in that country.  In some areas there is now increased focus on testing of seniors / nursing home residents, which could affect the numbers too.  I'm not sure this is an easy thing to chart, as it would involve research into the testing policies in many countries, states or provinces, and the changes within those areas over time.

    This article, posted by JLeimer in a side forum, may shed some light on death counts and the factors involved in the past and current numbers.

    https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

     

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  • Mon, Apr 27, 2020 - 11:04am

    Mohammed Mast

    Mohammed Mast

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    SAND PUPPY HCQ

    Yes the pharmacies have it in stock (the generic version) but you need to have a prescription for it.

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  • Mon, Apr 27, 2020 - 12:19pm

    Jim H

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    Nice Video extract with just Dr. Zelenko from yesterday

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJ6gUuMTGXU

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  • Mon, Apr 27, 2020 - 3:05pm

    FordPrefect

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    FordPrefect said:

    I fell over this article which I think is very interesting. Its an opinion pice by an MD working in an ER in NYC who writes about his observations at the ER.

    He wonders why most that get infected with COVID19 don't get very sick but many of those that do get very very sick. Eventually ending up in a respirator. And many die while on the respirator.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html

    "And here is what really surprised us: These patients did not report any sensation of breathing problems, even though their chest X-rays showed diffuse pneumonia and their oxygen was below normal. How could this be?

    We are just beginning to recognize that Covid pneumonia initially causes a form of oxygen deprivation we call “silent hypoxia” — “silent” because of its insidious, hard-to-detect nature.

    Pneumonia is an infection of the lungs in which the air sacs fill with fluid or pus. Normally, patients develop chest discomfort, pain with breathing and other breathing problems. But when Covid pneumonia first strikes, patients don’t feel short of breath, even as their oxygen levels fall. And by the time they do, they have alarmingly low oxygen levels and moderate-to-severe pneumonia (as seen on chest X-rays). Normal oxygen saturation for most persons at sea level is 94 to 100 percent; Covid pneumonia patients I saw had oxygen saturations as low as 50 percent.

    To my amazement, most patients I saw said they had been sick for a week or so with fever, cough, upset stomach and fatigue, but they only became short of breath the day they came to the hospital. Their pneumonia had clearly been going on for days, but by the time they felt they had to go to the hospital, they were often already in critical condition."

    "A vast majority of Covid pneumonia patients I met had remarkably low oxygen saturations at triage — seemingly incompatible with life — but they were using their cellphones as we put them on monitors. Although breathing fast, they had relatively minimal apparent distress, despite dangerously low oxygen levels and terrible pneumonia on chest X-rays.

    We are only just beginning to understand why this is so. The coronavirus attacks lung cells that make surfactant. This substance helps the air sacs in the lungs stay open between breaths and is critical to normal lung function. As the inflammation from Covid pneumonia starts, it causes the air sacs to collapse, and oxygen levels fall. Yet the lungs initially remain “compliant,” not yet stiff or heavy with fluid. This means patients can still expel carbon dioxide — and without a buildup of carbon dioxide, patients do not feel short of breath."

    This suggest that many of those that get very sick have had hypoxia for days. Could this hypoxia be part of the reason people get so sick and could it explain some of the lasting damage to the brain, kidneys, lungs and liver that seems to accompany this disease?

    A cheap and simple way of detecting this "silent hypoxia" is a portable fingertip pulse-oximeter. I must admit I have purchased a couple for some family members that are at risk of a bad outcome from COVID19 because of commodities. If one could this phenomenon early one could perhaps intervene early with for instance oxygen treatment and maybe save lives and prevent lasting damage.

    Could this be a method of taking extra precaution especially if one feels slightly sick and does not want to go to the doctor or the hospital unless its absolutely necessary as in a pandemic?

    Most people have a thermometer at home for fevers. Could it be an idea to expand this thermometer into a kind of "StarTrek tricorder" that measures plus, blood pressure, temperature, oxygenation and breath rate which a clear display that can be photographed and send to the doctor so there is no change of misreading it. Could this be a way to make it more safe to ride out infections at home via telemedicine so that we can limit the number of infected people out and about and at the doctor office as much as possible? In this pandemic and potential coming pandemics.

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  • Mon, Apr 27, 2020 - 5:09pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Chris's newest video, "Unhelpful Media" (4/27/20)

    Why Is Coronavirus News Still So Inaccurate? (4/27/20)

     

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  • Mon, Apr 27, 2020 - 5:12pm

    sofistek

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    Testing

    Trump has been upbeat on US testing, even though he's way out on comparisons with other countries and even though testing in the US appears to have been very restrictive. With about 5.6 million tests, there have been over 1 million cases, which is more than 1 in 6. Here in New Zealand, as an example, the positive rate for testing is well over 1 in 100. The latter suggests aggressive testing though the criteria for testing was only widened a couple of weeks ago to anyone with even slight symptoms which might be consistent with Covid-19 (previously, there were other criteria usually related to overseas travel). So the US appears to be way behind a lot of countries in testing and yet is trying to loosen restrictions.

    By the way, why is this blog missing at least a couple of later Chris videos? They're on YouTube, though, so should we be commenting there instead of here?

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  • Mon, Apr 27, 2020 - 5:45pm

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1190

    4+

    Hypoxia and the usefulness of a pulse oximeter

    Thanks for the interesting post Ford.  Our own ER doc. Sandpuppy recommended buying one of these weeks ago and I did - $40 at Walmart.  I constantly kid my wife and tell her I will only keep her if she is at least a 98/100... and she always is : )

    Seriously... I am glad I have it based on your post.

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  • Mon, Apr 27, 2020 - 6:29pm

    tourcarve

    Status: Member

    Joined: May 21 2009

    Posts: 45

    2+

    More on "On the Idea of Simply Protecting the Elderly"

    JWhite - I agree that we don't fully understand who is at risk of death - elderly, those with co-morbidities, those who are obese... Too early to know is genetics is relevant.

    But there is also the issue of observable possibly permanent non-lethal damage , for example, lung capacity.

    And...I keep wondering about damage that we can't observe. Are there people who won't have stroke now, but are now more vulnerable to them later? Same for kidney damage?

    What other disease manifests itself in so many seemingly very different ways? It's going to take time to fully understand what we are dealing with here. This is not a simple get infected, live or die, end of story kind of thing.

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  • Mon, May 11, 2020 - 6:32am

    evawatson

    evawatson

    Status: Member

    Joined: May 11 2020

    Posts: 6

    covid-19 Rapid Testing

    coronavirus Instant Test Kit is most important to identify the covid-19.

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