PP - Scandinavian Divisionbeta

January 17, 2019
2

Nordic brothers sharing thoughts and ideas on pre-crisis investment strategies and contingency planning.

These are indeed times of peak prosperity, but how do we best prepare ourselves and our brothers and sisters, many of whom too blinded by the current sommer abundance to imagine the longest winter in history right around the corner. No matter how severe the winter will be, there is little doubt it is coming and odds are in favor of a much more severe winter than in years past.

This group should serve as a common virtual blackboard, on which fellow viking ascendants are invited to share thoughts and ideas on how best to prepare for the long winter ahead. 

Investments strategies

- Gold/silver bars/coins? physical/online? Gold/silver derivatives at finansial institutes or should banks be avoided? 

- Real estate? currently the prices are highly inflated

- Cash? Dollar/other currencies? 

- loans? is it good or bad to have loans (low interest ones) when a crisis hits given the likely highly inflationary nature of the coming likely crisis.

- what could/would tip the money printing mania into a chatastophy - is it posible that they can continue 10 more years of buying up stocks and bonds?  

Contingency planning

What is the first thing to do when/if things escalate into chaos in plain sight (how ever it may manifest)? 

 - what are the different levels of preping and is there an absolute minimum of essentials that we are to aquire while we can? what are they?

A plan should probably include a rally point for your local group, where the situation can be assessed and plan of actions desided. 

Much depend on what happens (white, grey or black swan style):

- a great depression vol. 2 - this would be the rosy outcome in which you should be fine if you have the correct investments prepared

- stagflation, hyperinflation, sovereign defaults and whatever may follow with most likely everyone-for-one self mentality - this could get ugly and in these or other worst case scenarios time is crucial. How fast can we expect it to happen (hours,days,weeks...)? Could there be credible warning signs one need to look out for - that might by some extra valuable time?

 

All are welcome to share their thoughts and ideas, questions or answers. 

 

First, white swans are events which present us with economic or financial “risk.” There is a knowable probability of them occurring—such as a eurozone recession, a further drop in the euro-dollar exchange rate, or a deterioration in German consumer and business confidence—but in the end, they will have a relatively low impact on the U.S. economy. At least, U.S. economic policymakers and individual market participants can hedge themselves against the detrimental impact of white swans since they are in principle knowable in advance of their occurrence.

Second, grey swans shade from risk toward uncertainty but flit between the two. They are less likely to happen than white swans, or at least the probability that they could be estimated accurately is lower, but they could potentially have a much higher impact on the U.S. economy. Here we are dealing with political events where we can be relatively certain the financial fallout can be limited, but we can never know for sure. The failure of a major European bank spreading Lehman-like contagion is in principle knowable as a probability. How much damage it would do given the interdependencies of derivatives and cross border bank liabilities is not.

Third, black swans are those surprising events that have a completely unknown probability, and thus are absolutely uncertain, but we know with certainty that the impact will be devastating. In this last instance, we face highly uncertain political events that could lead to full-blown financial market contagion, with dramatic consequences for the U.S. and world economy. In this case, political responses will simply be too late to limit the initial fallout. 

(Ref. https://www.aicgs.org/publication/white-grey-and-black-euro-swans-dealing-with-transatlantic-financial-risk-in-2012/)

 

 

 

 

Copenhagen
Denmark

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