World Oil Outlook

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Transcend's picture
Transcend
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World Oil Outlook

 Hi, I tried searching for this topic and I couldn't find it although I assume it's been discussed. Ive seen lots of charts and data on world oil production/consumption. Page 65 on this PDF on this website (http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/public...), shows a pretty positive outlook on Oil supply and other Energy sources through 2035.  I'm hoping some could comment and provide some other data and possibly also dissect the report and figure out how they make such projections.  Ive seen some very intelligent posts so i think it would be worthwhile to go through the report and pick it apart. What makes sense? What doesn't?  Maybe this is a useless exercise?  I don't know. Ive seen so many different charts of world oil supply/demand levels, including ones from Chris Martenson, so I'm putting one out from OPEC hoping to get some feedback. 

wisetraveler's picture
wisetraveler
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An interest bit from the

An interest bit from the foreword states:

The WOO also shows that the world has enough oil resources to meet demand
and satisfy consumer needs for decades to come. Estimates of ultimately recoverable
resources continue to rise. Technology continues to extend its reach, with new areas
and plays being opened to exploration and new countries becoming producers. There
will be no shortage of oil for the foreseeable future.

I haven't read the report in depth, but consumption rates of oil are predicted to increase through the 2008 - 2035 period. I suppose that goes without saying.

World oil supply is also shown to increase over the same period from 80.6 mboe/d in 2008 to 101.0 mboe/d in 2035 (Table 1.5
World supply of primary energy in the Reference Case, page 50 in the PDF linked by Adlevy in his original post).

In one of Chris Martenson's videos, he displays a graph of the World Energy Outlook from the IEA for 2008, and it shows the sum of world oil sources (conventional and non-conventional crude) getting to just over 80 mb/d in 2030.

Why is there a discrepancy? Am I missing something?

Tim

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wisetraveler
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Adlevy, I wanted to include

Adlevy, I wanted to include an excerpt here from a paper published in Energy Policy. Basically it supports what Chris is saying in that oil production has essentially peaked since 2004. I suppose it's just a difference in estimations between the IEA and OPEC.

Dean Fantazzini, Moscow School of Economics, Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia; Mikael Höök, Uppsala University, Global Energy Systems, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala, Sweden; and André Angelantoni, Post-Peak Living, San Francisco, CA. This paper has been previously published in Energy Policy, Volume 39, Issue 12, December 2011, Pages 7865-7873.

 

1. Introduction

An economy needs energy to produce goods and deliver services and the size of an economy is highly correlated with how much energy it uses (Brown et al., 2010a, Warr and Ayers, 2010). Oil has been a key element of the growing economy. Since 1845, oil production has increased from virtually nothing to approximately 86 million barrels per day (Mb/d) today (IEA, 2010), which has permitted living standards to increase around the world. In 2004 oil production growth stopped while energy hungry and growing countries like China and India continued increasing their demand. A global price spike was the result, which was closely followed by a price crash. Since 2004 world oil production has remained within 5% of its peak despite historically high prices (see Figure 1).

Figure 1. Oil production stopped growing in 2004 while demand continued to increase. The result was a global oil price spike that contributed to the subsequent economic contraction. Liquid fuels include crude oil, lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, and refinery processing gains and losses as defined by the EIA. Source: Hirsch (2010)

Hope this helps.

Tim

 

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Thanks wisetraveler

Gregor Macdonald's post today was helpful also.  With the EIA revising the production lower over the past 10 years.  I'm really trying to get a grasp on the numbers of world oil production / consumption.

The estimates are comical.  They can't be taken seriously, so I think if we all focus on what has happened, we can draw better conclusions as to what we might expect.  Instead of just taking Chris' word, I wanted to challenge and verify it.

Thank you wisetraveler.  I was hoping to get more participation, but I'm happy that you've added your input.

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concernedcitizenx5
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World oil production

Your best bet is to read all that you can. Then make an educated conclusion. There is so much information out there and it can be dissying. I just try to keep in mind that our government and big business are not going to tell us the truth one way or the other. If they say we are running out of oil there will be panic. If they say we have plenty they can create overconsumption thereby requiring expensive prices to reduce consumption and a healthy profit. Hope for the best and prepare for the worse. Good luck.

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I was reading an article at

I was reading an article at the Arch Druid's blog this morning (http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.ca/2009/07/where-economics-fails.html), and came across this interesting bit of info:

The Energy Information Administration (EIA), a branch of the US government, has become infamous in the peak oil scene over the last decade or so for publishing estimates of future petroleum production that have no relationship to geological reality. Their methodology, as described in EIA publications, was simply to estimate probable increases in demand, and then to assume that increased demand would automatically be met with a corresponding increase in supply.

The EIA, following basic economic principles, assumes that the supply of oil will always increase to meet demand. It doesn't attempt a true esitmate of oil supply based on geological information, which is what the IEA does. Wow, those acronyms could be confusing.

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Lies, damn lies and statistics

 Truth is no one really knows.  And the problem is that everyone needs good data and no one is willing to give up their own numbers.  

What I see for myself fairly simply always comes back to EROEI.  There still is oil.  As a matter of fact there is lots of oil really.  And we even seem to know where alot of it is.  But, its bad oil in horrible places that is extremely difficult to extract.

If the comparisons of "how much oil is left" do not count it in terms of how hard and damaging is it to extract you're not getting numbers you can really use.

 

We're trying to using numbers given to us by poker players with every reason to bluff.

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Break point

 If you look at the OPEC numbers it is interesting to see proven reserves never change Y-O-Y regardless of how much oil is pumped.

The truth will be exposed when/IF the economies of  the US/ Europe recover.  A gap will open between suppy and demand somewhere out in the future.  It is a moving window and it will be quite obvious when we go through it.  

If we didn't have 88 million in the US alone out of the work force I feel we would have already been past the S/D divergence... and in a recession driven by insufficient oil supplies which is much more onerous, in the minds of us serfs, than a real estate bubble...

I think there is plenty of oil at $200 barrel, $300, $400.....

 

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Its not OIL it is FILM or GREASY ROCKS

Thank you for your comments ohu812.  You wrote: "There still is oil. As a matter of fact there is lots of oil really."  Whoh.....Perhaps we should think more accurately as deposits of FILM or (heavy grease) greasy SMUDGES in and on rocks, instead  of "oil." There is  very little oil left waiting to be tapped.  Instead there are vast quantities of grease smeared  rocks.  We have learned how to TRANSFORM such films into oil by a pre-processing step in situ  (in the ground chemical treatment) just to get it to move at all, and then further chemical processing up on land to get something flowable that looks like and can be considered "oil."  We should not let others define the terms of conversation to skew reality in  their direction.  Reality is: there are different solid forms ("coal") and greasy sand and greasy rock, and burping gas pockets still left available to go after, now that most of the oil has been extracted.

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1 picture = 1000 words

Transcend's picture
Transcend
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discoveries and offshore

 Thanks for the comments. I'm not sure how helpful the chart is. I found this page to be interesting: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_fields

Chris talks about the deepwater discovery and how deep they went for that reserve and how if they extracted all of it out, it would last the world approx a day or so. I guess we shouldn't expect to find sites such as the Burgan field and it seems like the cheap good stuff has mostly been found and used. We're obviously being forced offshore for a reason, but it must still be highly profitable otherwise why bother. Energy in / energy out will likely start playing a role in these discoveries as well as the exponential component.

Does anyone have an idea of any offshore project, which turns out to have nothing? In other words, what are the odds the Sugar Loaf field does contain 25-40 billion barrels (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sugar_Loaf_field)?  What are the odds it contains nothing? If they found that one, how many more offshore discoveries are there waiting to be tapped?  Does anyone know the cost to produce a barrel from one of these sites?

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