When will deflation turn into inflation?

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kidz kargo's picture
kidz kargo
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When will deflation turn into inflation?

Hello everyone,

I value many here who constantly have a good opinion and critique.  Please help me with this next question!

So the big question I have is this.  When will our current deflation of prices, turn around into inflation?  Also, what are the possibilities of some things remaining deflationary as far as price and other things turning inflationary as far as price?

It seems like home prices have quite a ways to go and will lag and decrease in value until demand actually reaches supply and/or prices correct or some variation of lower prices via a new round of free money for the next expediental wave up in debt; however, the money supply is obviously increasing very fast and will keep going that way.  As prices traditionally lag quite some time with interest rate cuts and money creation working its way through the system, when and what are the possibilities of what we can expect when this massive inflationary increase in the money supply finally hits?  Will everything in the economy start to hyperinflate in price or just some thing hyperinflate like food and utilities.

Can hyperinflation occur with most people being broke?

Can hyperinflation occur due to simple debt maintenance and debt payment and not in traditional GDP spending by consumers, govt, and businesses?

 

Furthermore, what will a hyperinflationary environment look like in the future months and/or years given all the factors of the equation?

 

I appreciate any thoughtful responses.  Thanks.

 

Paul 

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Re: Can hyperinflation occur with most people being broke?

 

May I recommend you contact Dr. Gono, Chairman of the Zimbabwe Reserve Bank in this matter ...

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Re: When will deflation turn into inflation?

Good question Paul. I am clueless on timing of this event. I hope some here have the answer. I have read others in the past who say it takes 12 to 18 months for FED money to inflate price.

Supersonic change has come upon the planet in the last fifty years. One could also make a case for a longer period but I will with all its inherent short-comings say fifty years. I contend these events are without any precedence in scope, rate of change and impact on the level of human suffering potential; think of JIT just in time global delivery system. We have no storehouse! Except our own shelves. Not having a storehouse is extreme folly. Abundance is guaranteed for only a tiny elite. And adequacy is guaranteed for their army. 

Therefor prepare but at least in America expect confiscation of your storehouse and of course, for the common good!

Ron 

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Re: When will deflation turn into inflation?

When will our current deflation of prices, turn around into inflation?
Also, what are the possibilities of some things remaining deflationary
as far as price and other things turning inflationary as far as price?

A hundred years of inflating money and debt has a long way to go to reach equilibrium. I am of the opinion that we cannot know if or when inflation will return. Right now, deflationary forces are so strong that we are looking at several years for inflation to return if it does. Deflation strengthens the dollar, but that trend is not sustainable. Because the money supply is dependent on debt, there is the possibility that if unemployment grows so severe, there will be too few with the means to take on new debt including government debt. In that case, the value of the dollar falls to zero before inflation can take hold again.

The case of Zimbabwe has to be put in perspective. Their currency is inflating faster relative to other currencies. It''s a whole different animal when all the world's currencies are inflating within close range. There is a risk that the world's monetary system could collapse. Or there is the chance that some countries, notably Asian, could go on a gold standard before it goes too far.

Inflation is like pornography. We'll recognize it if or when we see it coming. A stash of gold and silver prepares us for either outcome. That supply cannot be inflated or deflated.

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Re: When will deflation turn into inflation?

hewittr

How is inflation created?

What is inflation?

Trillions of dollars are going somewhere in the last 8 months. The FED is apparently giving PAR for toxic waste. What then are the bankers doing with all this cash for waste? After the events of the last months I am not sure I understand what I thought I did about these concepts.

Ron

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Re: When will deflation turn into inflation?

I have the same concern and have invested on the premise of hyperinflation even though many are predicting deflation.  Where has the 8 trillion dollars gone?  When one takes Chris's "how is money created" section of the crash course it would seem to indicate that inflation must occur?

I just finished watching/listening to Taleb's interview on the Charlie Rose show and he seems to be favoring deflation in the short term due to the high level of unsold inventories in almost every sector including stocks.

Even though I have invested on the premise of hyperinflation, I really have no clue as to what might happen, interesting comment by Taleb about the rational market theory, he says the "markets are stupid".  Also a comment by a poster on IV that the markets can remain irrational longer that we can remain solvent.

JMHO

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Re: When will deflation turn into inflation?

Radiance

This equation is not  complete and is not calculable but it helps to understand monetary systems.

General price level = supply of money / supply of goods.

Prices go up if the supply of money exceeds the supply of goods.

Prices go down if the supply of money contracts faster than the supply of goods.

Prices go down if the supply of goods exceeds the supply of money.

Prices go  up if the supply of goods contracts faster than the supply of money.

The popular understanding of inflation and deflation centers around prices, but there is more to it as the example above shows. Keep in mind that debt becomes money when it enters the marketplace to buy goods.

Bankers have been unable to expand the supply of debt, instead are using government bailouts to improve their reserves. So now we are witnessing a contraction of debt money. This is the kind of deflation that scares central bankers. The other kind of deflation, defined by prices declining from an expansion of goods, would be positive, a sign that a nation is producing wealth. There have been episodes on monetary history early in the history of this country where prices went down as our economy grew wealthier. That process started going into reverse with the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 and has now gone to its logical conclusion.

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Re: When will deflation turn into inflation?

Thank you for your response.  So this is an interesting concept.

 So it might be possible that our debt is so extreme at every level starting at federal, then state, corporate and personal, that the money creation that is currently going on will not lead to inflation of prices but rather only maintenance of debt.  It seems that most of the money creation so far has gone to relieve bank debt, so now in theory banks can start to lend again; however, there really aren't many to lend to because a recessionary spiral has started plus our personal debt level has really constained us.  Are then any examples in history of a nation being as indebted as we are right now? If so, what was there outcome?

 It seems that in order then for things to turn inflationary again as far as prices go, that there will have to be a new game changer somehow to allow people to take on even more debt.  I know the new plan is for the Fed to absorb more debt from Fannie and Freddie in order to allow for even cheaper interest rates (4.5%) in order to absorb and continue the house game.  It seems like 4.5% still won't really begin to put a dent into the problem.

Is the Fed gambling that they can simply keep sucking up the debt without really having it impact?  Our they acting out of desperation because it is the only move to keep the system alive and not really caring about 18 months from now?

How much money will the Fed really have to create to begin the inflationary process again with prices?  Since GDP has been almost 70% consumer spending, if they put a $100,000 into everyones bank account and then lowered interest rates to 3% for houses, would that allow for another small wave of inflation?

 

Thanks again in advance. 

Paul 

 

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Re: When will deflation turn into inflation?

So it might be possible that our debt is so extreme at every level
starting at federal, then state, corporate and personal, that the money
creation that is currently going on will not lead to inflation of
prices but rather only maintenance of debt.

It's a losing battle, but that is about right. The money that goes into the maintenance of debt is diverted away from production, the source of real wealth. Debt per se is not bad. It can be good if an enterprise can earn enough to repay the principle and the interest on the principle. But when one cannot pay down the debt, it grows exponentially because of the compounding nature of interest. That is where we are now.

How much money will the Fed really have to create to begin the inflationary process again with prices?

It can't be quantified or timed. There would be an inflection point where the economy has contracted so severely, that government spending begins to take affect.

Are then any examples in history of a nation being as indebted as we are right now? If so, what was there outcome?

Yes. Many. The outcome was always catastrophic.

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The only bloke with any idea of what the big picture is

Hewittr,

 

I am monitoring your posts, and quite admiringly mate, you are the only bloke I think here that can see the bloody picture of the dismal American failure called democracy. Not only do you grasp the facts, but you also have a firm understanding of the entire structure of American economics as well. Hat's off to you, mate. As for you others, pay attention and learn something for a change, and quit spouting off bad data and poorly supported information.

 

 

Cheers

 

 

 

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Re: When will deflation turn into inflation?

Thank you mate.

It took me decades to weed out in my own mind the disinformation propagated in schools and the media. If I can provide navigation signals to help guide others through this morass, then my time here is well spent.

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Re: When will deflation turn into inflation?

Kidz Kargo-

   I think many of us are trying to figure out the answer to your question about if/when hyperinflation will occur.  I don't claim to know the answer, but here are a couple articles I recently read from financialsense.com with interesting views.  They are:

"Zombie Banks and Gold Triggers" by Jim WIllie,  http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2008/1204.html .  Here's a clip:

"...THE NEXT MAJOR STEP IS MONTHS AWAY, BUT IT WILL FEATURE NATIONALIZATION OF MORTGAGES, REDUCTION IN LOAN BALANCES, WHOSE COSTS ARE COVERED BY THE US CONGRESS. More pain is needed to reach a consensus on such a huge new program. The nationalization of mortgages will ultimately cost at least $2 trillion. [clip]...THE MORTGAGE NATIONALIZATION WILL FINALLY PERMIT REFLATION, SURE TO RESULT IN HYPER-INFLATION. THE GOLD PRICE WILL REACT IN A CLEAR AND UNMISTABLE MANNER. Now that most foreign central banks have moved to extremely accommodative official interest rates, the USDollar is less at risk from relative monetary competition. They are by now fully aware of the risk to their own banking systems and economies. The global move to reflation, if not hyper-inflation, is soon to be triggered. The maneuver in October to install a globally available USDollar Swap Facility was a deft insurance policy planted by the USFed to assure that foreign banking systems are laced with USTBonds. They can less easily abandon the USDollar as the global reserve currency. The entire, at least Western, world will be joining in the process."

 

Another relevant interest is "Credit Deflation = More Credit Inflation = Hyperinflation + Depression" by Shelby Moore,  at http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2008/1203.html .  Here's a clip from that article:

""...Deflation of prices is only possible when the money of circulation is, or is a bill exchangeable for, precious metal (gold and/or silver standard). Deflation of prices occurs when the money supply can not be increased faster (than the mines can produce) than the supply of goods. Deflation encourages saving, which is in the long-run is good for sustaineable capital investment...

...In 1930, the government was powerless to increase the money supply, because the USA was on a gold standard. FDR's New Deal was not possible until he had removed the constriction of the gold standard (domestically) with the 1933 confiscation...

...This has enabled a massive hidden tax on the society in order to finance american dominance globally. The tax was paid as poverty in developing world, and as accumulated fiat debt in west...

...The hyperinflation will manifest as soon as the world's bond holders become aware that they are being debased at double-digit negative real interest rates... ...bond holders are currently focused on the imploding credit, not on the money supply. It is going to be whiplash in the bond markets sometime in 2009 or 2010. Then all hell will break lose.'


Another writer I find interesting is Ty Andros.  He has a series of articles on the coming "Crack Up Boom".  The latest article is "The Crack Up Boom Part XIII", at http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/andros/2008/1203.html 

"...Recent Bailouts announced in the U.K. remind me of ICELAND. The idea of politically-directed lending to bankrupt people, banks and businesses is OBSCENE. And how do they pay for it? By borrowing from the prudent savers (destroying the seed corn of future growth), printin the money or taxing what little is left of actually productive enterprise and individuals. It is a recipe for disaster. When this episode is complete Keynes will be the most REVILED economist in history.

The U.K. economy can be expected to collapse, as well as the rest of the G7, under these policies. They are compounding debt upon debt. Deflation occurs now, as rolling bankruptcies destroy what’s left of the wealth-creating private sector, which no longer has access to short-term financing as the babies are thrown out with the bathwater. The people and businesses that are being rescued don’t produce more than they consume and you can expect that to continue with government funds printed to underpin them. Then, hyperinflation occurs as basic goods and services disappear and government prints the money to pay for them when incomes collapse FURTHER."

Like I said, I don't know the answer to your question.  But maybe these articles help give some food for thought. 

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Re: When will deflation turn into inflation?

Inlation vs. Deflation: Agree with some Comments by Chris and others some keys are monitoring...

1.)   Changes in US Treasuries yield curve.

2.)   Changes in Other Global Currencies yield curves.

3.)   Changes in Commodities and their Futures.

4.)  Then explicitly compare 1 to 2 and 3...if 1 increases relative 2...we are doing WORSE than other counties w/r/t financial debt issue.  If 1 and 3 accelerate in tandem...there's your answer. 

 

On a broad note...history suggests whenever we reward inefficiencies and failure (maintaining institutional powers) inflation tends to more often then not to occur.

 

Some questions I ponder...

We are in a "snapshot of time "...are we solving the problems or making them worse?  

If worse then how many are realizing were doing things wrong and why?

If this is so non-linear...or accelerating so rapidly....besides CC and DVD's how can we all be part of solution toward mitigation?

 

Nichoman

 

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Re: When will deflation turn into inflation?
Nichoman wrote:

Some questions I ponder...

We are in a "snapshot of time "...are we solving the problems or making them worse?  

If worse then how many are realizing were doing things wrong and why?

If this is so non-linear...or accelerating so rapidly....besides CC and DVD's how can we all be part of solution toward mitigation?

This is at the heart of the dilemma of the human experience itself, isn't it?

We are self-conscious and, therefore, can consciously do things yet much of the time we are on auto-pilot. When something catches our attention and we feel that we must act (silly expression really because we're acting all the time) the hyper self-conscious person will then ask, but is this really something I should "act" on or should I just "go with the flow (auto-pilot)?" 

Then, will our "actions" even do anything, perhaps make thinks worse?

Well, we'll probably never know, so short of going at things blindly, "acting" is enjoyable.

Though, in the end, I find the fascination I receive from studying all of this worth the price of admission itself.

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Re: When will deflation turn into inflation?
mainecooncat wrote:

Though, in the end, I find the fascination I receive from studying all of this worth the price of admission itself.

 

It is an interesting exercise of human nature.   Personal experiences in disasters and wars...with communication...education...partnerships and true real leadership we can handle this better than dire predictions.

 

Sadly...our two political parties have turned their backs on the principles for the solution.  Key document is Washington's "Farewell Address To The People" which was supported vigorously by Alexander Hamilton, James Madison, Thomas Jefferson, John Jay, John Adams...then highly praised by Jackson, Lincoln, T Roosevelt.   When I consider the 5 themes in his letter to our situation...I just shake my head.   If others disagree...please explain why?

 

Nichoman  

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Re: Can hyperinflation occur with most people being broke?
rinaldo wrote:

 

May I recommend you contact Dr. Gono, Chairman of the Zimbabwe Reserve Bank in this matter ...

I can picture Dr. Gono being the twin of that media guy during the Iraq war, who said everything was fine as bombs were dropping all around his city.

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Politicians love broken people

Question: Can hyperinflation occur with most people being broke?

Answer: Wall Street, Fannie and Freddie, and Detroit were first in a long begging queu. We'll be seeing state governors soon. Insurance companies are on the brink. They haven't finished nationalizing the real estate market. There is a military-industrial complex that needs to be kept busy. Baby boomers are starting to retire. Nationalized health insurance. Insured private pensions have to be paid. The unemployed need to eat. And so on......

There is a pattern here. Hyperinflation can occur because most people are broke or soon to be broke.They'll have no trouble finding willing takers.

And a reminder of the moral hazard of this. When government subsidies something, you get more of it. It pays to run a business badly. It pays to not work. It pays to let government pay. War pays. Welfare pays. Where it stops, nobody knows.

 

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Re: When will deflation turn into inflation?

Thank you for the links.  I read all three articles and they make a compelling point about inflation at some point.

Here's the way I understand it currently.  The current deflationary forces are strong and will continue to increase indefinitely since that is what the market forces naturally would have happen.  It seems that our government interventions have been too little, too late and extremely nearsighted with their actions thus far.  The money supply is increasing but the money is not actually going into the real economy (yet? maybe never?)  Paulson and the Fed seem to be reactionary only, like firefighters on a bad fire that is not controllable.  This process seems as if it will continue until there is a significant change to the problems that got us here in the first place.

So it seems, that all the money creation currently is potentially laying the foundation for a future event (something that will be a catalyst), perhaps a nationalization of home mortgages (that would help consumer spending again), or some other massive event (maybe another large war), or both or something that catapults re-inflation. It will have to be a very big event to recreate spendable money, and enough to keep the accelerating pace that our exponential curve requires.  If this happens, at that point, reflation could very quickly lead to hyper-inflation because of the large money supply that is growing rapidly that is acting like potential pent-up demand.

The other option is that we will continue to be reactionary and won't deliver on the big catalyst events that delivers actual spending money for working people and we will continue to print money for debt maintence and bad business entities and bonuses and that the currency will basically hyper-inflate and decrease in real potential spending value because we will decline much faster then the rest of the world and or may keep declining even as other parts of the world stabilize because they are actually producing real things.  Due to the U.S. not being prepared, we will continue with a really bad recession, losing jobs and having values erode, while at the same time, prices for food, oil, energy, other oil related things will start to explode because the relative value of our dollar will simply buy less and less. 

Could it be a depression with segments of hyperinflation in regards to commodities and energy?

Trying to grasp where this explosion can possibly go.

 

Paul

 

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Re: When will deflation turn into inflation?

I would like to make a functional point. After reading all your articles and others from wide and extremely varied points of perspective. I have come to one defined conclusion. History continually repeats it’s self. As we live in a society involved in a feeding frenzy, It's appetite to accumulate money wealth and status is ferocious.

If you cannot  see what is going on around you, then you are clearly unable to balance the past with the future. The Credit Crunch, this situation was formulated engineered and masterly executed.  Why is the top 10% of the nation’s wealth pulling back and taking back assets? The very basic principle of economics has to be supply and demand. Yet we are speculating, when we see the bottom of this deflationary curve?

Inflation will begin between February and April of 2009. The repartition of change within this  global economy is now working at such a fast pace, it has moved beyond any expectation I could have dreamt of. Given the circumstance of this recession. Next years poor cash flow will devastate an already heavily in debt business. It will have no choice but to raise prices in order to attempt to compensate for the fall in demand, and falter it will further and further in to the red. I believe this crisis has not even begun yet.

 

An engineered collaps however you look at it, it is by design and is no accident.

A perfect slogan for American Government if ever there was one, PRIVATIZE THE PROFITS & SOCIALIZE THE LOSSES.

 
 
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Re: When will deflation turn into inflation?

History continually repeats it’s self.

Personal self-interest is built into our genetic code, without which we would have not survived as a specie. But it does have some undesirable side effects.

I believe this crisis has not even begun yet.

Correct. And when it is over, the weak will have perished. The foundation will have been laid, for what I think, will be a more advanced world society. Assuming history repeats again, there is an historical precedent when the Renaissance followed the Dark Ages.

I know that is a harsh way to put it. As much as we would like to believe otherwise, we can't escape what we are and how we evolved from that primordial soup.  

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Re: When will deflation turn into inflation?

 Hewittr,

"I know that is a harsh way to put it. As much as we would like to
believe otherwise, we can't escape what we are and how we evolved from
that primordial soup."

Faith is the assurance of things hoped for the evidence of things not seen.

Ron

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Re: When will deflation turn into inflation?

That's your choice Ron. For me there is no assurance of anything in life. Too much of reality is unseen to us. So we play the probabilities and hope we're right.

 

 

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And what faith are you describing?

And what faith are you describing? Is it a generalization of faith, or a specific faith? Faith in family, love, god, money?

Please be more specific because faith covers a large spectrum of ideas or beliefs, and is usually associated with religion.

I have faith in love. I can't see it, but I feel it for example.

 

 

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Re: When will deflation turn into inflation?

[quote=]

I believe this crisis has not even begun yet.

 

So true, we are just seeing the outer bands of the perfect storm.

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Re: When will deflation turn into inflation?

And what faith are you describing? Is it a generalization of faith, or a specific faith? Faith in family, love, god, money?

Ron was quoting from the Bible, so I presume he was implying faith in God. It was in opposition to my biological explanation.

I have faith in love. I can't see it, but I feel it for example.

It is more accurate to define personal relationships as one of values. It is values that we feel.

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Re: When will deflation turn into inflation?

All I was stating is that belief in primordial soup requires faith. But you stated it as if it is as sure as the ground one stands upon.  If you want to believe that time plus organic molecules sloshing around is the origin of life I just shudder at the naivety of one who is so lucid otherwise. I am not opposing your belief. I strongly support your right to believe in primordial soup origin of life but "for the sake of the sheep such beliefs slaughter" I stand against it being presented as settled fact.

 

The evolutionary idea of vision evolving out of something that never had an eye nor was an eye requires gargantuan faith. The complexity of vision is vast. Millions of living cells each unique in purpose and association would have to line up from the surface of an eye all the way to a brain. The idea that such complexity just happens by utility is a statement of blind faith.

Simple mindedness promotes the evolutionary idea that given enough time anything can happen, even life! I believe in a type of evolution. Within species we have vast numbers of evolved subspecies. But a dog is still a dog even if one is 5 pounds and another is 100 pounds. But i do not believe in evolution that believes one species can produce a completely new and distinct species. The typical quoted proofs have been debunked for decades.

When I get on
the highway and travel to a place I have never been, I believe it is
there even though I have never been there. I have faith. Hewittr, geniuses who posses vast mathematical abilities, wherein they calculate the  probabilities of the existence of someplace alleged to be on a map is beyond us mere simple minded mortals. We just believe the Grand Canyon really does exist. We have faith. Imagine
the folly of flying an out to sea and hoping the island on the map
really is there or predicting it on some degree of
probability/improbability. Faith is the assurance of things hoped for
and the evidence of things not seen! Just as the Bible says. And most
of us have faith,intellectuals something else altogether.

 

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Re: When will deflation turn into inflation?
hewittr wrote:

I have faith in love. I can't see it, but I feel it for example.

It is more accurate to define personal relationships as one of values. It is values that we feel.

You speak truth hewittr. But you speak as one fallen from grace and mercy a voice now of evil.Such a life view as yours regarding values, explains why things of no value to a mother and father are so easy to discard; even their untimely children to be. The day is here when children are disposing of boomers, who not only are of little value but are burdens. Besides think of the inheritance wasted on elder-care. With peak oil etc, they "along with many other valued less people," will all the more when balanced with pragmatism lack utility/value and be disposed of like worn out rugs. We are as my dear 31 year old friend said self seeking beasts. However the romantic idea that pragmatism assures we will all work together for self preservation is deadly folly. A HOUSE DIVIDED WILL NOT STAND! Of course another Bible verse.

And imagine some here desire my voice be silenced for inducing disease, even the work of a mad-man!  None of us are safe when the least among as are judged by caprices values of utility. Truly yours is the voice an eventual ultimate destruction for all but an elite and in the words of the Christ get the behind me Satan. Your leadership in its logical conclusion kills. My voice promotes the sanctity of the least among us. Oh yes the voice of a diseased mad-man, so dangerous and powerful he must be silenced.

Ron

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