When does the bubble pop?

9 posts / 0 new
Last post
ewilkerson's picture
ewilkerson
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 18 2010
Posts: 390
When does the bubble pop?

I just wanted to get a discussion going as to how long people think Europe can keep going like this?  It seems there is worse news every day.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/european-companies-are-now-funding-europea...

Ernest

No_Fiat's picture
No_Fiat
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 20 2011
Posts: 104
 You can only kick the can

 You can only kick the can down the road for so long before you encounter a huge wall. That wall is within site now!

docmims's picture
docmims
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 17 2009
Posts: 644
It's hard to make

It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future -- Yogi Berra.

 

It's being kicked pretty hard, but I think they a have a bunch of kicks left.  2 yrs is my estimate.

ewilkerson's picture
ewilkerson
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 18 2010
Posts: 390
I agree it is hard to make

I agree it is hard to make predictions, but I will.  If they are comlete dummies in Europe it will be within 6 montha.  Otherwise, by the end of 2012 the EURO collapses.  Then again they may start the printing presses, and who knows what happens then? 

 

Ernest

dshields's picture
dshields
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 24 2009
Posts: 599
it is a tough thing

Europe is in an odd situation.  The countries could sell debt but were unable to create money.  That was supposed to force them to live within their means.  But, they did not.  Neither do we (the US).  Now significant portions of the populations have become dependent for their very survival on government transfer payments both in the US and in Europe.  If spending is cut enough to balance budgets there will be serious civil unrest - possibly serious enough to take down governments.  The politicians are not suicidal - they do not want to have their home burned down or be dragged into rigged courts and convicted of "crimes against the state" or just be flat out killed.  So, we invent money and loan it to the governments are extremely low rates and the governments keep on paying.  Old debt rolls over at the extremely low rates.  This can go on for some time.  A year, 2 years, maybe more.  It is kind of a down hill slide until some event happens that triggers the final emergency.  What worries me is what the desperate governments will do while sliding down and after the final trigger kicks off the final emergency.  Have you ever noticed how governments dominated by statists always want to reduce liberty for the sake of the people.  They never consider the freedom of the individual, they always justify their actions to reduce liberty as for the good of the people.  There is a long history of desperate governments doing desperate things.  In the US statism has become the dominate theme in the government.  They want to regulate and control everything "for the good of the people".  This is the classic slow decent into tyranny. To my amazement, the people of the US are accepting the decent into tyranny.  The bottom 50% or so are having their standard of living reduced against their will.  The politicians are trying to blame it on "the rich".  Hitler blamed their problems on the Jewish people.  There is always someone to blame - anyone but ourselves.  I can't speak for Europe, but in the US we have nobody to blame but our selves.  We elected the politicians that created the welfare state.  We have been electing them for decades.  We elected Obama.  He told us what he wanted to do and we elected him anyway.  We elected Bush (twice), we elected Clinton (twice), and so on.  None of them were interested in retaining freedom for the individual.  None of them were interested in having the US live within its means.  We kept reelecting congress.  They kept passing outrageous budgets (until Obama and now we don't even bother to do that even though it is mandated by the constitution) and borrowing and spending and expanding the government.  Now we have a government we simply can not afford.  We can not afford the welfare state we have created.  There is nobody to blame but ourselves.  Over the next few years there is going to be a very tough gig.  The vast majority of the people in the US are going to have their standards of living forcefully reduced.  It is going to be very painful.  There is going to be a lot of trouble.  Statism has destroyed the US.  We have fallen so far.

docmims's picture
docmims
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 17 2009
Posts: 644
They can always kick the

They can always kick the can.  I find it humorous that last month when Italy got bailed out by the EU for the tune of 80 billion.  20 billion or so was from the US Federal Reserve and 10billion was from Italy loaning the bailout fund 10 billion to loan back to themselves.  Those figures may be slightly of from an article on zero hedge last month.

MrEnergyCzar's picture
MrEnergyCzar
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 14 2010
Posts: 54
depends on oil

High oil prices I think will be the knockout punch for the global economies.... Money printing can only go on for 5-10 years....

 

MrEnergyCzar 

ewilkerson's picture
ewilkerson
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 18 2010
Posts: 390
I would hate to know how

I would hate to know how much Federal Resereve money is in Europe.  We claim to be a capitolistic nation and yet we bail out all the big banks, countries, etc.  Let the chips fall where they may.  Get rid of the rot in the system.

dshields's picture
dshields
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 24 2009
Posts: 599
ewilkerson wrote: I would
ewilkerson wrote:

I would hate to know how much Federal Resereve money is in Europe.  We claim to be a capitolistic nation and yet we bail out all the big banks, countries, etc.  Let the chips fall where they may.  Get rid of the rot in the system.

I hear you.  There is an aircraft carrier of fed money in europe.  They just got through doing some enormous swaps.  And, don't forget about the stuff they keep secret.  We have no idea what the fed res is doing.  The bloomberg freedom of information act suite uncovered a cornucopia of shocking stuff the fed was up to and was not telling.  Take a look at what is going on with the MF Global thing.  Pretty scary.  The gov has turned against the people in the MF Global thing.  There will be a lot of trouble over the MF Global thing before it is over and done.  The gov is supposed to be protecting the people that had the accounts and instead they are protecting MF Global management.  There is something very odd about all that.  I am sure when the truth comes out it will be shocking. 

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Login or Register to post comments