When to buy Silver

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FAlley's picture
FAlley
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When to buy Silver

I'm a college student investing what little capital I can into silver. 'Little capital' means that a $500 investment into anything is a big deal for me. I bought 15 ounces of silver last month for that price. I intend to buy another $500 worth soon.

Question: I feel that silver is a long-term bull commodity. It would be great if the price would dip so I could get a few more ounces for my money. Is there a consensus among y'all whether or not there will be any significant dips in the coming months, or if the time to buy is as soon as you possibly can, as often as you can?

Thank ya kindly.

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Re: When to buy Silver

When the EU has a bailout, the dollar strengthens for a short bit and gold has dipped on those moments. But IMO, it does not matter, if you have your basic necessity resilience taken care of and you want to protect your liquid asset, buy it when you can.

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Re: When to buy Silver

Hi Tin Man

I am a big believer is silver as well. Here is the short answer. Don't worry about dips. I bought most of my silver at around $15, then some at $20. It hovered around there for a while then took off.

In my opinion buy as much of it as you can at any price. The only real danger will come when you can't buy any at all and I believe that time will come at some point.

Of course only buy physical (bullion) silver. No paper promises.

Here are a few links that discuss silver regularly and some other stuff:

http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/harvey-organ-criminal-bankers-vs-silver-gold-vigilantes-part-1/49852

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Broadcast.html

http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=48&Itemid=108

and of course good ol' Max Keiser

http://maxkeiser.com/

Here are some names of people who know what they are talking about in regards to precious metals, mostly silver:

Eric Sprott

Bill Fleckenstien

James Turk

If you go up to the little white search box at the top right of this page and type in 'silver' you will see tons of discussions and resources about it.

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Re: When to buy Silver

Tin Man,

I bought more last weekend, and as the price has been slowly slipping this week, it's been interesting for me to kind of analyze my own thoughts. 
While it is never fun to watch your investment lose 'value', what I try and stay focused on is that when I started buying silver, it was $7/oz. Gold was in the mid-$300's/oz.

What we have to keep in mind is that the long term trending is upwards. Even in the event of a economic collapse, precious metals will still be rare and valuable.

 Looking over the last week as an indicator and quibbling over possibly losing $5/oz on gold and $0.50/oz on silver is pretty funny when my investments have already doubled.

It's sort of like driving a Prius. At first, you're amazed when you realize you've doubled your mileage. 
Then, you start getting aggitated when you get 45MpG, not realizing that it's still significantly better than whatever you got before =)

In short, I'll echo JO and Tycer - buy it at whatever price. When the price goes down, just buy it more aggressively. 
It's more of a way of preserving your labor than straight investing, for me. 

Cheers,

Aaron 

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Re: When to buy Silver

As someone with 10 years experience in researching, buying, and trading precious metals and having achieved financial independence (in part through these efforts), I'm going to disagree with some of the comments above.  Buy ONLY on the dips.  Look for a 3-5% price correction and buy then.  NEVER buy during a short term uptrend.  Careful buying and selling can make the difference between good profits and great profits.  BTW, silver and gold are both being heavily manipulated (i.e. beaten down) as was quite evident with today's trading, especially when you compare their performance to PGMs.  If you follow precious metals, you'll notice the PGMs (platinum group metals) like palladium and platinum have been outperforming silver and gold as of late, palladium in the longer term and platinum in the shorter term.  Palladium is up over 60% since I established a position at the end of the summer and I just established a position in platinum less than a week ago and have already racked up 5% gains there.  Silver's fine but don't bet the ranch on it and remember that sure things have a way of blowing up in your face.

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Re: When to buy Silver

Thank y'all kindly. It's great to find a community for discussing these things.

Poet's picture
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Think Like A Farmer

 

Think of yourself as a farmer.

You just harvested some grain. You gotta preserve some for the future - for seed corn and to live on (i.e. to eat or to buy things with it). You also know that no matter how you store it, you will lose some to rot, insects, rats, etc..

You could lose as much a 50% or more of what you save to rot or vermin. Or the price of the corn could fall drastically in the future. But you store anyway, because to not save any at all - based on the future hope that you'll be able to trade your labor for enough grain to live on - is a bad, bad idea.

Poet

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Re: When to buy Silver

Great analogy, Poet.  Really nice.

ao, I like what you say but the market is so wonky it is sometimes a bit challenging to call.  Why would you choose the pullback at 3-5%?  Why not more (or less)?

 

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Re: When to buy Silver
aarondenal wrote:

Great analogy, Poet.  Really nice.

ao, I like what you say but the market is so wonky it is sometimes a bit challenging to call.  Why would you choose the pullback at 3-5%?  Why not more (or less)?

 

aarondenal,

The point I hope I made was that there will always be corrections in even the hottest market so why not take advantage of them.  Most professional traders were expecting a large correction in gold (on the order of 10% or more) in the past year but interestingly, it never materialized on that scale.  The trading in silver, however, was becoming even more frenzied in recent months and a pullback seemed (and was) imminent.  The 3-5% figure is admittedly conservative (especially for silver) and approximate and for someone who has NO exposure to PMs, is unable or unwilling to do some technical analysis, and wants to establish at least a partial position ASAP to cover themselves, just in case.  Less than that percentage isn't worth bothering with because a larger correction will almost inevitably come along.  If more than that comes along in a 2-3 day period, however, I'd certainly consider latching on to it.  Just don't grab the proverbial falling knife because most bottoms take longer than just a day to materialize.  That time had been decreasing in the past year but now seems to be increasing again.  It's no hard and fast rule but if you see a price decline occur over 3 days, that's not a bad time to jump in.  Also, most of the recent bottoms seem to have occurred during overnight Asian or European trading so you may want to take that fact into consideration.  If you look at the historical charts on Kitco, you'll get a sense of the size and timing of past corrections but obviously, that's no indication that the same pattern will manifest itself in the future.  Price swings will likely become larger and more volatile though as events progress so there will be future opportunities to buy.

FAlley's picture
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Re: When to buy Silver

With JP Morgan having won the challenge to their short position, it seems a major correction may be imminent; if that's so, I'll be very, very happy that I didn't use ALL of my cash reserves for the silver purchase during the holidays.

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Re: When to buy Silver

+1.

That said, shouldn't it correct once again to meet the supply and demand of the market if they over sell 175% of their stock, in accordance with their new guidance?

Some of this is so purposefully convoluted that it should be criminal.

Cheers,

Aaron

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Re: When to buy Silver

I have been buying small amounts on a regular basis since 1992.  Waiting to buy on the dips (the feeling to really load up) never seems to come for me, as the temptation is to wait for a little lower price.  Before you know it the price is at a higher point!

I think the best program for an average guy is to buy at a regularly scheduled time regardless of the price. Having the metal in your possession, will be, in my opinion, a means to secure wealth without placing blind trust with anyone, any corporation, or any government.

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Re: When to buy Silver

Silver trading action on 1/19-1/21/11 is, to me, further confirmation of why it's wise to buy on the dips but, of course, one can get into the debate of the pros and cons of dollar cost averaging.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging

FWIW, I bought a little on Friday and I'll certainly never buy on a 2-3 day short term uptrend.

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Re: When to buy Silver

I got a few more silver maples yesterday, with silver at the 70 DMA, for the same reason. The mint now charges $2 a coin for production and the dealer cut was 3.7%. At least I'm getting physical for my premium rather than some paper promise.

FAlley's picture
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Re: When to buy Silver

Silver closed today just under $27.00, down from it's high of +$30 a few weeks ago.

Nacci's picture
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Re: When to buy Silver

 I often wondered why Glenn Beck would actively encourage his listeners to invest in Silver.  Beck works for Fox News, Roger Ailes then ultimately Rupert Murdoch and I my opinion the Globalists, so he does not speak independently but instead tows the company line.  So the real question is why is Fox News encouraging Americans to buy Silver?  

I posted earlier that several people who I encouraged to prepare did not take heed until Beck began to champion many of these same ideas;  food storage ,buying precious metals, etc.  then these same people wanted to know how to buy Silver then did, at the height.  Now they are pissed that they are losing money.  I wonder how many times this same scene played out across our Country.

Someone has a vested interest in destroying Precious Metals as a store of wealth in the common man' eye.  Possible effective tactic to accomplish this ; build up Silver as a store of wealth to the common man's eye using a sustained, convincing campaign delivered by one of their heros, encourage them to buy and when they do, in mass,  pull the rug right out from underneath their feet then kick 'em where it hurts; the wallet.

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Re: When to buy Silver

Like Tin Man, I only have teeny amounts to spend on silver. I finally came up with some dosh and bought some coins back in Nov/Dec. As I'm new to this, I couldn't foresee the current sell-off (did many, though?), so I feel a bit silly that I didn't wait for a bigger dip to buy. It doesn't make me happy to see my silver losing value, but as my purchases are long-term ones, I'm not terribly bothered by what's happening right now. In fact, I feel quite happy that I have finally got some silver in my possession and I know it will "pay off" in the end.

I only wish I could be buying more now!! We were supposed to have our house sold by now (buyers couldn't get finance approved at the last hurdle -- gee, I wonder why), so what bugs me most is that I could have had the means to be buying more PMs right now if it wasn't for the damn banks putting house buyers through the wringer these days. The real estate market around here is practically stagnant because no one can get finance! But I digress.

If there really is an agenda to turn the common man off buying PMs, then it only makes me happier to have my miniscule silver stash and optimistic that it will resume its rise in due course once the masses have lost interest. Perhaps then the market will get back to business as usual because there won't be enough clueless punters around to be fleeced by the big guys. I would class myself as one of those clueless punters at this stage, too, by the way. But I don't plan on giving up on PMs any time soon, as my purchases are motivated by a bigger picture than just short term profit-making.

Is my logic flawed? No, don't answer that. No, DO answer that!! I'm still getting my head around PMs, so respond away, people.

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Re: When to buy Silver

Nacci,

I think someone else pointed out that Glenn Beck was shilling for silver when it was $2 as well, about 10 years ago.

So in ten years, you can say it's a conspiracy again to get people to buy silver at $2000 an ounce. Rinse and repeat.

Which leads me to my next point...

Bushfaery- The precious metals are not only insurance for the proximity of a mad world ahead, but an investment. Not all investments are created equal however. Some are for the long term, others short term, and if your an HFT algorythm, miliseconds of term.

Precious metals provide a reversion to storage of value over a long period of time and also a way to offset the dangerous practices of an out of control banking system (right now) and an overreaching government (worst is coming).

We should see the bottom prices for the year, if history is any indicator, in next few weeks. If you bought at $31 or anywhere near the top last month, no worries. When it is $45 an ounce, you will patting yourself on the back and looking for the next sale price to buy more.

FWIW I have been buying for about 18 months now, and have seen a few interesting observations made. One is that the metals are true money, not a currency. Your currency in the banking system now ($) is guaranteed to be worth less later than the gold and silver you buy with it now.

How so? I like to use the price of a pistol, holster and two boxes of ammunition. 100 years ago that set up would have cost you $20 or a 1 ounce gold piece.

Today you can buy the same set up, modern pistol, holster and two boxes of ammunition for an ounce of gold. $20 won't buy you a good box of ammunition though.

The same applies with an ounce of silver, 100 years ago it purchased 10 loaves of bread, same as $1. Now it still can buy ten loaves of bread, but $1 wont buy you a slice of toast in most places.

So which of the two stores of value held up? The Dollar? Or the precious metal? What is real purchasing power?

I am sure you understand now, so 'nuff said.

Best wishes,

Jager06

 

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Re: When to buy Silver
bushfaery wrote:

Is my logic flawed? No, don't answer that. No, DO answer that!! I'm still getting my head around PMs, so respond away, people.

Bushfaery

Welcome to the forums  Your logic is sound.  Over time your purchases will pay off.  It just takes patience.

Travlin 

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Re: When to buy Silver

Chris Martenson's article today about inflation highlights the exact trend we're talking about. When the value of the dollar goes down, the relative value of PMs (like silver) goes up. That's the long term trend PM investors are banking on. Check it out.

 

http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/inflation-so-much-worse-were-told/51631?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ChrisMartensonBlogs+%28Chris+Martenson+Blogs%29&utm_content=FaceBook

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Re: When to buy Silver
Jager06 wrote:

Nacci, I think someone else pointed out that Glenn Beck was shilling for silver when it was $2 as well, about 10 years ago. Jager06 

Where did you get this information Jager06?  A few links would be appreciated.   Multiply Google searches of both "Glenn Beck recommends Gold and Silver" resulted in a concerted push by him in late December 2010 and early January 2011.  These date would coincide with request of me from people I know who are dedicated Beck followers for information on purchasing Silver specifically.   

Once again I believe the conspiracy lies in destroying Silver and Gold as a store of wealth in the mind of the common man.  I believe that an effective tactic would be to encourage them in mass to purchase these items then take it down.  Zero Hedge has reported massive, record breaking sales of Silver Eagles in the early part of January which was at the top before this takedown.  Now these people are underwater in their investment.  The people I have referenced are nervous and mad that their first time purchase of Silver has already lost so much value so quickly.  Confidence has been destroyed.  

 

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Re: When to buy Silver

Yikes! Confidence has been destroyed?

In what? GLenn Beck? The market? The manipulation of the precious metals markets by HSBC and JP Morgan? Or their use as a proxy short papaer position for China's massive grab on physical sotckpiles of the precious metals?

It sounds to me like someone you know took some advice without doing their own research. If they had done their own research they would be dancing at the opportunity to buy more at these prices.

When most folks invest for a reason, it is a commitment, not a lottery ticket. Buying a stock or other vehicle to increase ones wealth without researching it personally is gmabling of the highest order. I know that purchasing PMs now is a winner. I do not see them as a proxy for currency (U.S. dollars in my case) I see them as a store of value and true currency in and of themselves.

Ask yourself, and your friends, these questions about their purchases:

Is more money being printed than gold or silver being mined? (Yes worldwide)

Is price inflation of other commodities a reflection of this? (Yes, the Continuous Commodities Index shows this, so does a trip to the gas station)

Is there a rational reason for the current correction in the silver market? ( Yes and No. The uptrend needed to consolidated lower on a technical perspective, the depth and harshness of the correction is a reflection of the short position manipulation in the paper markets.)

Have the fundamentals of the investment changed? (The Fed and most other central banks are still printing the crap out of money, physical silver is getting harder to come by, miners cannot pick up the production fast enough, silver mining is still largely a byproduct of other primary mining operations.)

Will monetary inflation increase the cost of precious metals? (Yes)

Has the purhcase of the silver lost VALUE? (No, an ounce of silver still buys 10 loaves of bread, just a it did 100 years ago....and will in the next 100 years, while all other paper currencies continue to devalue.)

If you are an avid reader of Zero Hedge, I would tell you to take a look at Turd Ferguson's blog on the metals as well as a few others I reference regularly:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/

And finally, this one has some way out statements from some pretty cryptic sources. I find it to be challenging and therefore read it voraciously when time permits.

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/

Also on the subject of cryptic insider sources, lets not forget the bears on xtranormal who started dropping what seems to be very solid info thus far. I reccomend watching all of them to get the whole background picture, not just the most recent.

http://www.youtube.com/user/MrSilvergoldsilver#p/u

You are right, don't let Glenn Beck, Cramer, or anyone else tell you what to do. Then no one has to feel like they were suckered in by someone more powerful than themselves. Get informed and make your own decisions, and don't be afraid to do exactly opposite of what the "herd" is doing, if you know your right.

I am buying more gold and silver this week. It's on sale you know....

Best Wishes,

Jager06

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MrSilvergoldsilver?

I agree with most of what you posted.

However, I don't quite like that MrSilvergoldsilver in his posts on Youtube also refers to a web site where he wants to sell you precious metals. If it's really going to go sky high, why is the mister not keeping the silver, gold, and silver already has on hand, rather than sell it to you and I? It makes me suspect the JPMorgan/China long-short story.

Poet

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Re: MrSilvergoldsilver?

Poet,

I cannot speak to his motives. I purchase my PM's locally, and the dealer needs to have transactions in order to stay in business. I suspect that this is the same motive to produce sales. I do not think the "bears" videos are a product of the YouTube site, but I have my own reasons for that. I do know that what the "bears" said in each of their videos seems to have happened, with the exception of the last part of the thrid video.

I also saw another forum where someone may have leaked additional info relating to JP Morgan that greatly corroborates the info the"bears" have been providing.

http://search.messages.yahoo.com/search?.mbintl=finance&q=wynter_benton&...

Best wishes,

Jager06

edit: For clarification, transactions produce the income with most metals dealers I have done business with. For example, I most recently purchased some 2011 Silver Eagles. The spot price was not relevant to the profit of the dealer, the spread between the spot price and the transaction price was his gross margin. In this case $3 over spot price. He did not actually own the metal, as you and I might. So it was not relevantto him if the spot price was $2 or $200, he made $3 per ounce on the sale. I hope that is an adequate explanation for why someone might want to be generating sales of precious metals that are increasing in price terms by promoting a series of video leaks.

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Re: MrSilvergoldsilver?

Jager06: Thank you for your considered response. While I do have a pretty good grasp on what it means to invest in physical silver, your illustrations were great crystalising examples that have helped me now articulate concepts I've been grappling with. Very non-economics, me. All arts and languages and no university education, so it can take a while for me to get stuff. I must say, I'm finding my self-education quite invigorating! I will be visiting those links you have posted in this thread when time permits (ahem).

Travlin: Thanks for the reassurance.

How frustrated I am right now not being able to take advantage of the current price!

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Re: MrSilvergoldsilver?
Jager06 wrote:

For example, I most recently purchased some 2011 Silver Eagles. The spot price was not relevant to the profit of the dealer, the spread between the spot price and the transaction price was his gross margin. In this case $3 over spot price.

Jager 06,

Just for clarification sake, I think you meant to say the gross margin of the dealer was determined by the bid/ask spread on silver eagles, not the spread between the spot price and the transaction price, correct?

Also, am I correct in assuming you paid a $3 premium on silver eagles and if so, why so high?

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Re: MrSilvergoldsilver?
ao wrote:
Jager06 wrote:

For example, I most recently purchased some 2011 Silver Eagles. The spot price was not relevant to the profit of the dealer, the spread between the spot price and the transaction price was his gross margin. In this case $3 over spot price.

Jager 06,

Just for clarification sake, I think you meant to say the gross margin of the dealer was determined by the bid/ask spread on silver eagles, not the spread between the spot price and the transaction price, correct?

Also, am I correct in assuming you paid a $3 premium on silver eagles and if so, why so high?

AO,

I don't know where you buy eagles now but premiums have been approaching this level. APMEX is about 2.69 (recent price) but you pay shipping. I can drive across town  (50) miles and pick up eagles for 2.70 premium so 3.00 is not that far away. You count shipping or gas money then it does get close.

 

Ken

 

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Jager06
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Re: MrSilvergoldsilver?

ao-

My understanding is that the dealer profit is simply the transaction price, not the bid/ ask spread. I will have to ask my dealer for clarification on that, thanks for pointing it out.

As for the $3 over spot, I thought that was a great deal considering this guy is about 50 miles closer than anyone else, charges less than the jewelry stores (come lately bullion dealers), and calls me by my first name when he calls me to tell me he has new inventory. There are other benefits to doing cash transactions that you might not have considered either. I don't know what the laws are in your locality, but here anything over $1500 is considered a bulk sale (cash for cash equivalent) and is tax free. Also the reporintg requirements for the IRS are above $10K so that leaves some wiggle room for quietly getting out of dollars and into a true store of value.

Best wishes,

Jager06

 

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Nacci
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Re: When to buy Silver
Jager06 wrote:

 Yikes! Confidence has been destroyed? In what? GLenn Beck? The market? The manipulation of the precious metals markets.

Is the Condescension necessary?

Jager06 wrote:

It sounds to me like someone you know took some advice without doing their own research. If they had done their own research they would be dancing at the opportunity to buy more at these prices.

That is of course my point.  These guys do very little thinking for themselves but moved very quickly when Beck told them to invest in precious metals.  This also completely misses my point.

Jager06 wrote:

If you are an avid reader of Zero Hedge, I would tell you to take a look at Turd Ferguson's blog on the metals as well as a few others I reference regularly:

I have been at this a long time and feel confident in the moves and investments that I have made.  Do not confuse my awareness and position with those I highlighted for my example.

I would suggest that you abandon your role as sage on the hill dispensing wisdom to the uneducated masses it will only result in a dog fight. I am also still interested in the sources for your claim that Glenn Beck was shilling Silver ten years ago at 2$/oz.

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Jager06
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Re: When to buy Silver

Nacci,

Your right, I cannot find anything from Beck that is 10 years old other than Goldline ads. My bad! Maybe he recommended silver because the price of gold had gotten so high as to price out the average investor? I don't know. I like to think that people would do things to help their fellow man, rather than rely on a potential conspiracy.

As for the sage on the hill....that I am not. If that were true I would not be sharing the resources I use to help determine my own positions and investments, I would be the source.  If you have other links to informative resources, please share them.

I believe the purpose of this site is to share information that benefits everyone here. That includes financial information resources, as it is not only one of the 3 Es, it is also a way for us to buttress each other in ways we might not have thought of individually.

I do not come here to fight with fellow members, but I am quite willing to disagree with anyone here, even Chris. Dog fighting is not necessary, and fighting via the internet is pointless in my mind. I have spent most of my life as a professional soldier, so perhaps my perspective differs on the potential benefits of a non contact internet brawl.

My apologies to you if you felt like I was being condescending. I hold everyone here in very high regard and try to be as honest and open in my attempts to be helpful as possible.

Best wishes,

Jager06

ao's picture
ao
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Re: MrSilvergoldsilver?

Ken,

Just picked up a monster box for $2.00 and no shipping.  As I said, $3.00 seems high.  I'd shop around. 

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