Whats Next for the Markets

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rickets's picture
rickets
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Whats Next for the Markets

The market is becoming more volatile again.  Whats next?

A lot of time has passed since the lows of over a year ago.  The magnitude and duration of the equity rally has most surprised.  Even the most bearish or most deflationary slanted minds had given.  As a deflationist, anti-gold bear I was starting to question myself.  Cash has been my holding for a while (since maybe 9500 after the bounce from the low).

Now that the markets have started to shake again, I am wondering what took so long and whether this is just another head fake to the downside before futher crazy moves up (like in Jan-Feb 2010).  I had a bit of an awakening today.

I have always been amazed and intrigued at how slow real estate prices move relative to reality and relative to other financial markets.  This last move up in equities had me shocked...and certainly had me second guessing myself.  However, today I was looking at all of the newest information that I felt was most relevant to the future of equity prices.....and, of course - real estate is one of the top issues.  Real estate holdings dominate the future of liquidity for insitutions and individuals.  Nothing, including perhaps the euro, is more important in the next two years as the price and moves of real estate.  Therefore I think that the equitiy markets are starting to act in "real estate" time rather than old fashion stock price time

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets

I don't know what to expect of the markets.  I've been invested in stocks for over 25 years.  A few weeks ago I sold all of them and went to 100% cash.  I just can't see any fundimental value in stocks as a whole.  Even duting the low a year ago they were not cheap on a value basis of earnings and dividends.  What is there to make them rise now except a flood of liquidity and "the greater fool" momentum?  Besides, after two mini-meltdowns in six months how can you trust your assests to these people.

I have joined the Will Rogers school of investing.  I'm more concerned about the return of my money than the return on my money.  Over the long term, holding cash is a losing proposition, especially at zero interest rates, so I'm looking into gold and holding foreign currencies.  I'm also interested in commodities and selected foreign stocks.  These are usualy thought of as risky, but they look relatively safer than the traditional investment to me now.  In the future that seems likely, preserving assets may be impossible and minimizing losses may be the best we can do. 

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets, the ECB nuclear option

With all the panic and fear coming out of the eurozone the ECB will do the nuclear option, meaning monetization of government bonds. With the world economy so shaky and weak, i bet that there is tons of pressure on the ECB to "ease" a bit. The Japanese did it, as did the british and americans, proponents will argue. Germany will eventally cave and the liquidity flood will continue in Europe. Based on the past 2 yrs there is NOOOOO way the powers that be will allow the eurozone to collapse. In the event that there is no "shock and awe" type action the PIIGS will fall apart and so will the eurozone as we know it. Also, French exposure to these nations would infect massive French banks, which would harm German, British,  and American banks and the ponzi falls apart. This is what NEEDS to happen but the rulers will never let this happen without a fight. Whats a few trillion amongst friends?

The sequence of events in EU are very similar to what happened in USA before Lehman. First the bush stimulis, then the Term Auction Facility, then the Fannie and Freddie nationalizatio, then the TARP and still that wasnt enough to instill confidence. It took Benron's 1.75 TRILLION of juice and mark to model to instill confidence. The grk 150 billion bailout is peanuts compared to whats coming soon.

After that, the markets should continue to chug along higher. If no nuclear option from ECB (doubtful) then DOWWWN we all go.

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets

The Great Reflation:
Investing During an Age of Uncertainty

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/2010/0503.html

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets
rickets wrote:

As a deflationist, anti-gold bear I was starting to question myself.  

Hi rickets,

Its good to see your input again, I too was beginning to get a bit "deflated" myself, LOL.

What's next for the markets?

While many try to explain the moves in the market using every theory under the sun, I see only two factors that realistically explain market movement: expectation and opportunity.

To get to the truth of the markets you have to throw all the macro-economic theories out the window. Inflation, deflation, liquidity, illiquidity, government/central bank intervention, market manipulation....its all garbage within the context of the marketplace. Markets exist for one reason: PROFIT. Expectations create the opportunity for profit.

For example:

  • The crash in 2008 was an opportunity to profit from the inflation expectations of the 2005-2008 time period.
  • The rally over the last year was an opportunity to profit from the bearish expectations created in the crash of 08.
  • The move in gold since 2002 was an opportunity to profit from the "gold is trash" expectation established in the 90's.
  • The crash in real estate was a profit opportunity created by the "real estate always goes up" expectation that flourished in the mid 2000's.
  • The dollar rally in 08 was created by the "dollar is doomed" expectation established in 03 and made gospel by 2007.

If you want to know what the future of the market is, you simply need to observe the expectations of the market mindset today.

  • The Euro is doomed. (this one has some maturing to do, after all it was the dollar that was doomed just a few months ago).
  • Your a fool to not have the majority of your capital in physical gold/silver.
  • The stock market is being manipulated by the central banks and they will never let it crash again. 
  • The real estate market is being manipulated by the central banks and they will never let it crash again.
  • The Chinese are the smart money.
  • Greek bonds are the plague!
  • The world is running out of oil.

What opportunities to profit do you see? 

I'll meet you there, and the beer is on me....Jeff

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets

Grewat thread, rickets. Nice to have you back too - haven't heard from you since the big bout with Davos! :-)

The way I see this, the whole "recovery" has been bogus and the market has to eventually wake up and face reality (meaning BIG downside in equities). So far reality hasn't been at the table. Is this the beginning of the "wake up" or just another head fake? I don't know. But I do regret having pared down my shorts on the S&P when I recently became convinced this market was reality-proof. I had a limit order to put most of that back on at 1202.5 on the June contract. We hit 1202.25 on the most recent bounce then plunged back down. Sigh.

Murphy says it should all be up from here. Why? Because I finally gave in and added some of my short back on at 1172, thinking that might be as much of a bounce as we're gonna see at this point. But I feel like 2007 de ja vu. Everyone is for the most past still saying "But the maximum effect Greece can really have is X", just like the same people were saying "The most impact subprime can have is X" in 07. They still don't get the obvious. Greece is just the first chip to fall. The rest of the PIIGS, then UK then eventually USA have to face the sovereign debt piper.

If we get to the point that a greek-like sov. debt crisis looks imminent for the USA, I fully expect a major strike on Iran or other "distract the people's attention" tactic from the US Gov.

Erik

 

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets

Hi JAG

I like your thinking but don't neccessarily agree with your specific observations.

The Euro is doomed. (this one has some maturing to do, after all it was the dollar that was doomed just a few months ago).

Well I would agree sentiment is bearish but not really that bearish yet. Agree this is one to watch for now.

Your a fool to not have the majority of your capital in physical gold/silver

Not really mainstream thinking so wouldn't look to short at current prices.

The stock market is being manipulated by the central banks and they will never let it crash again. 

IMO there's still plenty of fear in SM's and after the latest correction not sure they are still a sell.

The real estate market is being manipulated by the central banks and they will never let it crash again.

If you're talking US then the smart money has probably already been made here and valuations no longer look so stretched. A little maybe but nothing to get too excited about.

However there are some pretty juicy property bubbles to be found elsewhere - UK (where I am) and Awstralia are prime (sub-prime ;-))examples.

The Chinese are the smart money.

Maybe and certainly property in China looks bubbly. But the rules of the game are a bit different over there (e.g. far less debt is used to buy property) and the Chinese stock market no longer looks like a classic bubble.

Greek bonds are the plague!

Yep, but talking a contrary stance there requires balls of steel! It really does look as if it's just the nature of the default that is in question.

The world is running out of oil.

I'm not really sure just how mainstream this thinking is. Definitely no longer confined to the fringe but is $80 oil too speculative? It's still only about 4-5% Global gdp so probably sustainable. Now if we were back at $147 I'd definitely be preparing some shorts....

My conclusion - if you can find a good way to short UK or Ozzy property then that's the place to start.

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets
rickets wrote:

The market is becoming more volatile again.  Whats next?

A lot of time has passed since the lows of over a year ago.  The magnitude and duration of the equity rally has most surprised.  Even the most bearish or most deflationary slanted minds had given.  As a deflationist, anti-gold bear I was starting to question myself.  Cash has been my holding for a while (since maybe 9500 after the bounce from the low).

My sentiments exactly.  I'd been wearing shorts for so long, I came away with permanent scar tissue from all my self-induced wedgies Cry

Now that the markets have finally turned (for the moment), my positions are finally up.  However, I am 95% in cash (short-term T-bills).  I am trying to get out of that and into physical gold and physical cash, as T-bills won't do much good if there is a bank holiday, or a chain of banks go under.  Sure, you'll get your money back eventually - but who knows how many months afterwards and whether it will be worth much by then anyway.

I think the EU crisis is the real thing.  This looks, smells, and walks like the Asian crisis of 1997, except it is much much worse.  Europe is much larger economically than Asia was in 1997.  Heck, it's larger economically than Asia is today.  Asia was eventually bailed out, but it still wrecked the markets.  I suppose they could bail out Europe, but a lot of damage will be done before the "solution" comes.  And, given the current mood of the US public, who we all know would be shouldering the bulk of any such bail-out, I do not know how easy it would be for politicians to put that additional burden on them at this time.  A bail-out in this climate might just put the fire out in the Greek Parliament and start one in the U.S. Capitol. 

JAG, maybe the expectation to profit from here is that everyone is expecting a a bailout and there won't be one. Wink

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Holy Cow!

What a move!

CNBC Says the "machines are broke"....LOL


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Re: Whats Next for the Markets

So what happened to break the free-fall? 1,000 pts! It's only down ~300 now...

A moment of panic it seems. Wouldn't be surprised to see more of the same over the summer - if a 'real' crisis doesn't show up sooner.

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998 Point Drop in the Dow!

Doesn't the market automatically shut down on a 10 percent decline? This move got pretty close to the "lock limit down" threshold, if it still exists.

Jim Cramer's face was priceless during the drama.

The Yen went ballistic!  The Toyota dealers in Europe had to double the price of their cars in one day!......Just joking.

The Gold and Silver divergence spells DEFLATION.

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets

The only bad thing about days like today is listening to the CNBC idiots.  Are these people on drugs?  I mean seriously.  I cannot believe the stupidities they say.

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets
Farmer Brown wrote:

The only bad thing about days like today is listening to the CNBC idiots.  Are these people on drugs?  I mean seriously.  I cannot believe the stupidities they say.

+1

I haven't watched CNBC for sometime, it was totally hilarious. What a bunch of clowns.

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets

Credit markets are the big story:

Credit-default swaps on Spanish and Portuguese banks rose to records, according to CMA DataVision prices. Portugal’s Banco Comercial Portugues SA increased 44 basis points to 523 and Banco Espirito Santo SA climbed 44 to 555. Contracts on Spain’s Banco Santander SA rose 24.5 basis points to 231.5 and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA jumped 24.5 to 267.

Swaps on Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy rose to or near all-time high levels. Swaps on Greece surged 83 basis points to 927, Portugal climbed 40.5 to 456, Spain increased 41 to 271 and Italy rose 34 to 221, CMA prices show.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awZVlrg3iAjI&pos=1

Greek debt needs to be restructured. As long as the EU and ECB remain in denial, preposterously claiming that they will paper over the problem, markets will keep on revolting.

Meanwhile, the 'market that squirrels shut down' (when they chewed through a cable in Connecticut back in the 1990s, making screens go dark) is still a JOKE:

May 6 (Bloomberg) -- NYSE Euronext said “there were a number of erroneous trades” during an almost 1,000-point plunge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

“There were a number of erroneous trades,” said NYSE spokesman Rich Adamonis. “Our guys just told me Nasdaq is investigating the erroneous trades. What happened today in P&G for instance, the bad print was on Nasdaq, not here,” he said, referring to a 37 percent plunge in Procter & Gamble Co.

The Nasdaq said it is investigating the plunge.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQKbTm0qCY0c&pos=1

That nightmarish thousand-point plunge? Just your overworked bearish imaginations! So the authorities wish ...

There's an old saying that even 'accidental' bad ticks get retested. Dow Ten Thou, who's laughing now? Frown

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets

Gold in euros cranked from under 920 this morning, to 956 in the evening.

It's a place to hide, when the euro currency may not be long for this world.

Too bad, the underground economy will miss those phat 500-euro notes! Frown

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets

Even if 3M and P&G were trade input errors, the feeding frenzy of stop loss orders lends itself to sentiments over how little confidence there was at 11,000.  And why it doesn't exist may amount to more than Greece's affairs.  Financial Reform regs are going on in the House and the odds of a miss-cue will be acute these next couple of weeks.  With Sander's Fed audit bill looking like it will go up for a vote and other measures sure to be popular, there are many ways to see coming legislation that will reduce earnings and/or constrict credit.  It may amount to good long-term medicine, but the short term negative effects may be what's next for the markets. 

Bearmarkettrader, Do you really think Greece will be bailed out?  Since when is the IMF, ECB or a country like Germany, able to enforse austerity where Greece seems unable?  The people in these EU countries are a lot cooler than, say, Texas would be to bail out California.  And, despite swaps suggesting otherwise, Greece is in far worse shape.

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets

FinPro,

 

I dont think Greece will get bailed out, unless th ECB goes on a bond buying spree which the financial world is begging for. Im surprised that there was no action out of ECB yet but surely it will come.

Greece is in big trouble. The people will bring the current gov down, vote in a left leaning one, and reject the terms of the bailout package. Greece's days in the EUR are numbered. Drachma coming soon, then the ECB will buy the paper to stabilize the situation.

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets

Greek drachmas were converted to euros at the rate of 345 drachmas per euro, almost a decade ago.

Given the human propensity for round numbers, I suppose that the drachma will be reintroduced at the rate of 1,000 drachmas per euro.

Paying off debt denominated in euros, in full, would be hopeless at this rate. Greece would have to offer 30 cents on the euro in settlement.

But at a sustainable exchange rate, and with a manageable debt burden, Greece would boom like crazy. Foreign investment and tourist revenue would pour in; property prices would surge. As in Argentina, Greek GDP could grow in the mid to high single digits for several years.

Do it now, or do it later. Restructuring and devaluation are inevitable. Eurosclerosis is first and foremost a disease of sedentary minds.

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets

As Friday trading winds down, European shares are closing near the lows, with the Stoxx 50 index down almost 5 percent.

The real bloodbath is in the credit markets, though. Bloomberg describes the grisly scene:

The yield on the two-year Greek note rose 131 basis points to 19.75 percent as of 12:09 a.m. in London. The yield difference, or spread, between 10-year Greek bonds and German bunds rose to 967 basis points. Portuguese 10-year yields climbed 17 basis points to 6.36 percent.

The 10-year German bund yield was little changed at 2.78 percent, after dropping to 2.72 percent earlier, the lowest since Bloomberg began collecting data.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aWHTQCUr8G_Q

Greece's yield curve is grossly inverted -- 19.75% on 2-years; 12.45% on 10-years. What ought to shock policy makers is that the maturity of the 2-year note falls within the duration of the bailout. At 19.75% yield, the market is saying it doesn't believe in the bailout -- the 2-year note is trading at a level which implies roughly 50% probability of default.

It's eerie and bizarre that European 'leaders' keep flogging their 'Versailles II debt reparations' plan, when the market has declared it Dead on Arrival. One can only hope they're waiting until the weekend to reveal 'Plan B' -- restructuring. Embarassed

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets

Harrahs on Wall street is up. The roulette table is packed, blackjack is booming and you have to have a number to play the slots. Little old retired people are taking their money out of the market and retirement accounts and heading to Atalntic City and Vegas in record numbers. It is almost impossible to get a room in Tunica MS. In an interview with the Onion Mr. and Mrs. Saul Horowitz stated

" We really don't know what's next in the markets. We just are tired of all the meshuganas taking advantage of us poor schlemiels with all the hanky panky in the stock market. We want to put our money someplace "real", someplace where we can be assured it will be safe.  We want to enjoy our golden years. Now if you will excuse us we really need t get going or we will miss our plane to Reno. They have the loosest slots in the country you know"

V

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets

Me and Bill Gross -- like peas in a pod (although Bill gets paid more than I do Frown). Join the chorus, Bill:

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Greece needs to reduce the nation’s debt through restructuring and impose deep spending cuts to exit its fiscal crisis, according to Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross.

“That speaks to default, or in polite terms, restructuring, some type of formal agreement between creditors that avoids the nasty word of default,” Gross, manager of the world’s biggest mutual fund at Newport Beach, California-based Pimco, said during a Bloomberg Radio interview with Tom Keene. “They also need to follow the route of the IMF in terms of strictly imposed fiscal conditions, which reduce some of the ridiculous measures that have been ingrained in the Greek economy. So it’s a twofold type of approach.”

Governments will likely have to employ some type of “capital injection” into European banks similar to the Troubled Assets Relief Program, or TARP, set up in the U.S. after the collapse of global credit markets in 2008, Gross said. Pimco owns the debt of European banks, he said.

“We look forward to a response from the ECB in terms of the further policy measures that might ultimately support the banks,” Gross said. “The problem with Greece and perhaps with Spain and Portugal is one in which the banks, the European banks, are heavily involved and so it becomes a question of which to bail out.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aaA7Z9Yj0hCU&pos=6

Earth to ECB -- ARE YOU LISTENING?

 

 

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets

uhoh......Police Evacuate Small Area of Times Square Due to Suspicious Package (Story developing)http://www.cnbc.com/id/37022630

People getting nervous.

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets

Here are the most explicit details yet on what a Greek restructuring might look like:

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. Chief Economist Willem Buiter said European governments have delayed an inevitable Greek debt restructuring because they’re “wimps” and don’t want to bail out their own banks.

A Greek debt restructuring is inevitable because the country’s debt as a percentage of gross domestic product will rise to 150 percent in three years from about 120 percent now, said Buiter, 60, who joined New York-based Citigroup in January. Greece is supposed to take steps to reduce its budget deficit during that period.

A restructuring probably won’t happen until next year at the earliest, according to Buiter. Greece probably would erase about 30 percent of its debt to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio down to 80 percent, in line with the euro-area average, he said. The size of the Greek debt write-off may rise to as high as 40 percent if a restructuring is delayed, Buiter said.

“Euro-area banks, especially French and German banks, are up to their ears in Greek sovereign” debt, he said. “This three-year window is going to be used to either recapitalize the European banks to the point where they can either take the shock of a 30 to 40 percent writedown in the value of the Greek debt or more likely move it off balance sheet.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6a4.soHLRYY&pos=2

All very believable, except for the assertion that the restructuring happens 'next year at the earliest.' If I'm interpreting the market correctly, its urgent message is, 'Do it this weekend, or we keep selling.'

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The Captain Strikes Again.

I just put this video together with some audio from the trading pit yesterday.

"May you live in exciting times..."

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Re: The Captain Strikes Again.
JAG wrote:

I just put this video together with some audio from the trading pit yesterday.

Holy mackerel, man.  You got a gift.  

Just watching that footage from CNBC again (I was tuned in just about then) brings back the "oh lordy the top of my head is coming off" feeling I had in those moments.  Adding in Mr. Pit Screamer makes it doubly intense.

And nice touch:  "from the community at CM.com".  Sure, Dr. Chris is the new Sheriff in town.  But he's also got a sizeable posse.  [grin]

VIVA -- Sager

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets

I like it!

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets

JAG -- mwa ha ha ha -- that pit audio is a killer, the way his voice breaks on 'seventy-nines, seventy-nine evens are trading, arrgggghhhh!'

He sounds like Rick Santelli's evil twin, covering the apocalypse live.

Someday soon, we'll need him to cover the failed Treasury auction live. And then the printing press action at the Federal Reserve ... 'Sheets of hundreds are printing ... they've started a second press ... fresh sheets of hundreds are piled to the ceiling ... oh my God, Bernanke's arrived with armed guards ... they're firing up the helicopters ... ah-oo-gah, ah-oo-gah! ...'

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets
machinehead wrote:

'Sheets of hundreds are printing ... they've started a second press ... fresh sheets of hundreds are piled to the ceiling ... oh my God, Bernanke's arrived with armed guards ... they're firing up the helicopters ... ah-oo-gah, ah-oo-gah! ...'

Bernanke is dropping money bombs on the treasury market!

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets

Jeff,

Excellent piece of work.  Yesterday was exciting for sure.  Made me want to go get some popcorn, pull up a chair, and settle in for the show.  As I tell my wife, this is like watching the greatest drama of all time unfold.  But I'm not worried ... President Obama, the free press, and those smart people in Washington and Wall Street will save us.   

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Re: Whats Next for the Markets

Jeff,

I like it but what is with the Tangerine Dream in the background?  Seems out of place.

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