What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.

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Ken C
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What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.

After reading the great article about how things went down in Argentina I thought that it  might be  interesting to hear some opinions about what sort of time frame everyone is thinking about while doing planning for the really bad times. I realize that no one has a crystal ball but I think it may be useful to hear the opinions of others and the reasons for them.

Here is mine.

Clearly things are bad now and getting worse but I think that the Washington people will do everything possible to mitigate this situation. What they do (bailouts etc) will only make the end game worse but it is  my belief that we may be 2 years or so away from the real bad days. We continue to spiral down until then.

What is your opinion?

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.

imminent

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.
kenc wrote:

After reading the great article about how things went down in Argentina I thought that it  might be  interesting to hear some opinions about what sort of time frame everyone is thinking about while doing planning for the really bad times. I realize that no one has a crystal ball but I think it may be useful to hear the opinions of others and the reasons for them.

Here is mine.

Clearly things are bad now and getting worse but I think that the Washington people will do everything possible to mitigate this situation. What they do (bailouts etc) will only make the end game worse but it is  my belief that we may be 2 years or so away from the real bad days. We continue to spiral down until then.

What is your opinion?

Quote:

The Christmas turkey. Taleb says that asking an economist to predict the future is like asking the Christmas turkey what's for dinner on Christmas: based on its entire lifetime of experience, the turkey expects to be fed on Christmas, not to be eaten. As far as the turkey is concerned, Christmas is a black swan-type event.

My guess is .. we have met the Christmas Turkey .. and it's us.

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.

Kenc: "I realize that no one has a crystal ball but I think it may be useful to hear the opinions of others and the reasons for them."

Actually, Joe2baba has said he has a "really nice" crystal ball. 

Seriously -- I'd say 6-9 months.  But I'm just going on intuition there.  Other folks here are far more informed than myself.

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.

Here is a link asking the same thing, you can have a read if you are a subscriber:

http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/so-when-exactly-do-you-think-tshtf/13755

I change my mind all the time when I think TSHTF.  But then, it depends how you define the Fan. 

If you hope for the best, but plan for the worst, you should be prepared now - in my opinion.

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.

FWIW...since our elected officials are not addressing cause(s).   If world stock markets drops another 20-30+ percent (seems assured) and stays there (or falls lower)...global pension insolvencies should explode.   Add and combine with world tax revenue crashes...rapid unemployment rises...commercial credit defaults...etc.  

Inclined this could occur within 6 months...maybe sooner of unprecedented societal, economic, and political failures of my definitions of just the genesis of TSHTF.

2 cents...

Nichoman

 

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.
Amanda V wrote:

Here is a link asking the same thing, you can have a read if you are a subscriber:

http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/so-when-exactly-do-you-think-tshtf/13755

I change my mind all the time when I think TSHTF.  But then, it depends how you define the Fan. 

If you hope for the best, but plan for the worst, you should be prepared now - in my opinion.

or sh1t..........Wink

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.

Hi KenC,

If by TSHTF you mean the end of the current system, with a lot of associated pain and displacement (more than the usual amount we seemed to accept as a society), then I think it started in Fall of 2008 and the material standard of living for most people will continue to worsen in the coming months and years. 

If you mean the day when everybody knows it, then I suspect by the end of the year or early 2010 most people (more than half) will admit that the system is broken but still won't agree as to whether or not the government has made it better or worse than it would have been, or can or can't fix it.  That may take another couple years.

If you mean disruption in "our way of life," well that is clearly happening to the 20 percent of the population that is unemployeed right now and seems to be happening to the other 80 percent who are worried enough about the future to have stopped or slowed buying Starbucks, imported (what other kind is there) consumer products, houses, and cars.  TSHTF has definately happened to the economy.

If you mean breakdown in the social order with kidnapping for money, men with guns on the street, martial law, all sorts of bad feelings, etc. then I think that doesn't have to happen if as many people as possible start to work on making stronger more prepared communities right now.  In fact, I think working on building strong communites will make these SHTF days more rewarding than pre-SHTF days especially as extravagant material wealth is replaced by the wealth inherent in deep human relationships.

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.

The novelist William Gibson once wrote "The future is already here. Its just not evenly distributed". I think we can apply this insight to the current question and say that the fan has already been hit, its just that the consequences are not yet evenly distributed (or appreciated).

David - I agree completely. Building local, sustainable communities is our task and we'll be all the better for it.

Freddy

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.
Amanda V wrote:

I change my mind all the time when I think TSHTF.  But then, it depends how you define the Fan. 

If you hope for the best, but plan for the worst, you should be prepared now - in my opinion.

Amanda has stated it best.  For some who are completely "ready" for the worst, the fan is off or at best idling in the breeze.  For others (like us) it is on Low or Medium.  For some, it is on High, but they are aware of what is going on and are taking steps to turn the switch down.  Most are content with their fan on high - oblivious.

And then there's the "Idiocracy" © in Washington, DC - they printed up a whole ton of money and built a 3000 RPM fan, powered by a 1700 horsepower Packard V1650-7, liquid cooled, supercharged V12, threw on an intercooled turbo just for good measure.  Then they added a two position switch - High and High - and welded it on High.

And the funny thing is, they are all huddled around the fan, smiling and clapping themselves on the back for a job well done, with no idea what is coming.

"When you wrestle with a pig you both get dirty.  And the pig likes it."

 

 

I have no idea what that means. 

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.

My guess is 2011

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.

I agree with Caroline.

Based on intuition and recent case history of how long it takes these financial institutions to bottom out, even when given billions of dollars - I'd say we're looking at 3-5 years before the way of life we know is gone.

There are just too many variables at this point to say one thing in particular is going to happen - but there are good solutions for a wide variety of problems.

I'm trying to spend less time focusing on the "what will happen" and more time with the "how to be ready for anything".

Cheers!

Aaron

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.

I'd say 2011-2012 too, though I'm not as informed as most ppl here are (and not a subscriber :) ). My point is that once the economy would seem to have leveled out and demand picks up we will hit oil shortages. This is when things will start to come apart. However, there is lots of unknowns here. For example, how well will the power structure (Army, police, secret services) survive this. I think pretty well, but I may be wrong. That of course applies not only to US, but all of the developed world. Another unknown is how much progress on other energy sources will be made by 2012.

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.

I'm just interested in gaining skills that will be useful in a post collapse society. Obsessing about when isn't going to help much if your out of shape and overweight and only know about computers (one of the first things to become useless for the most part).

Looking at the information availible we don't have much time and I think being able to take care of the basics (food, water and shelter) are probably the best place to start.

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.
FireJack wrote:

computers (one of the first things to become useless for the most part).

You really believe we'll all turn into Amish paradise farmers?

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.
Dogs wrote:

When you wrestle with a pig you both get dirty.  And the pig likes it.

This is brilliant!

I honestly think this question is of only academic importance, as has been alluded to earlier here. As Dogs points out, the fan's speed is dependent on where you are in the transition, but if you already know what the future holds, what difference does it make when the precise aspects of breakdown become obvious? If martial law will be implemented in 6 months vs. 9 months, I wouldn't do anything differently now, I would keep preparing the way I am.

My own preparation program is not an adjustable speed system. It is 'ON,' where 'ON' indicates the highest speed that is sustainable. Thus, I am simply doing everything I reasonably can. Beyond that, there is nothing more I can do. Since most of the timing of the breakdown aspects is beyond my control, I can't focus too carefully on it, though it might be interesting to speculate.

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.

i love it tom but being a vegetarian

i am more interested in tofurkey

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.

To gain a sense of "collapse" one should read the book most relevant; "Collapse" by Jared Diamond.

Cheers! And happy hoarding (not that it will help much).  If you really want to have a sense of "stableness" then you'll have to arm and prepare the other 6 billions people on this planet who have no idea what's going on, let alone how it happened.  Your savings and effort will be no match to the billions looking for their next meal... oh yeah; that will be coming from you or at least as much as you can provide.  Regardless of how you look at it, the only way to "feed yourself" is to help others "feed themselves".  If they don't know how to feed themselves when/if TSHTF then they will kill you for it (out of desperation of course- and they will justify it as that).

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.
caroline_culbert wrote:

To gain a sense of "collapse" one should read the book most relevant; "Collapse" by Jared Diamond.

Cheers! And happy hoarding (not that it will help much).  If you really want to have a sense of "stableness" then you'll have to arm and prepare the other 6 billions people on this planet who have no idea what's going on, let alone how it happened.  Your savings and effort will be no match to the billions looking for their next meal... oh yeah; that will be coming from you or at least as much as you can provide.  Regardless of how you look at it, the only way to "feed yourself" is to help others "feed themselves".  If they don't know how to feed themselves when/if TSHTF then they will kill you for it (out of desperation of course- and they will justify it as that).

Yep, get prep'd on all levels.  Bug out bags sorted and ready, veg will be planted soon, sources of wild foods identified locally and stocks of food in the cellar increasing day on day.  Not to mention the hand tools, screws, rope, nails and what ever else you can think of and am also working on the neighbours and friends near by.

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.

posted in wrong thread!

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.

I think the catalyst will be the BIG THREE going belly up (GM/Ford/Chrysler) followed by Citi and B of A.  April or May.  Once that happens, watch the stockmarket go into freefall!

Mike 

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.

Using the fan analogy, I really don't think anyone has any control over the speed... it's dialed up to 11 and it's staying there. We really can't do anything about how much sh!t there is or when it's going to start flying. The only thing we can do is try to stay out of the trajectory and protect ourselves from either getting sucked into the blades or coated with splatter. Ducking and covering in time does come into play, so there is some personal merit to keeping an eye on the clock. If there is 3 years before a massive glob of crap hits the fan and splatters everyone, you can walk to a safer location with a goodly amount of provisions... but if there is only 3 months, you'd best running and maybe only carrying what fits in a backpack.

Personally, I think that there is already small amounts of crap getting sucked up toward the fan, and certainly a lot of toxic fumes getting spread around. You can see this with the housing market and some of the financial stuff going down since summer/fall 2008. I personally believe that a major glob of the real estate crap is going to fly by the winter 2009/spring 2010, which will start dragging even more Economic crap with it at a faster rate. By the end of 2010, I foresee roving outages in goods and services in high population urban areas (not prepared) and rural areas at the extremities of the grid(probably more prepared since the reliability of the system at the edges is always flakey). When this happens, I give 6 months tops before martial law will be declared to quell civil disturbances and violence, which will rapidly spiral into a quasi-fascist situation as the system attempts to protect it's power (it's power, not it's people). If substantial corrections have not been reasonably instituted by 2012, I can easily foresee the entire collapse of social-economic-political order as we know it... all the crap hitting the fan and splattering just about everyone except us early preparers who bugged out in the nick of time and are hiding in our little holes sleeping with our shotguns.

I think that the government/military/law enforcement "system" will begin to lose control of civil disturbance as soon as there are food, water and electrical shortages and people realize what's really happening and that it isn't going to get better. I don't think that any community within or bordering an urban center is going to be able to survive against the massive mobbing hordes or our own corrupted govt/military/law enforcement unless they somehow manage to be completely undetectable and inaccessible... a secret city underground or something (like the Matrix's Children of Zion). So, given that I believe that timeline will begin at the end of 2010, I want to make sure I'm nowhere near a city and am already well on my way to providing all my own food, water, shelter, defense, and power as needed... in a very small community with like-minded people. I thought this was my 5-year plan... until I look up one day last fall and noticed a bunch of little brown globbies flying around... it's now my 2-year plan, with a hard "escape the city" deadline of Fall 2009.

Things are unraveling faster than I thought they were or would... I don't feel that I have to time to wait for everything to perfect in my plan, I just have to get the Priority 1 items and hope that things hold out long enough for me to flesh out the Priority 2 items. Most of the priority 3 items are off the list already and the Priorty 4 items are history.  I'm planning for the worst, and planning for it to happen soon, perhaps even before I'm completely prepared. Planning for the worst of the worst. I'd like to hope for the best, but I don't think that's realistic anymore.

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.

I agreed with Nime and others ....I think tshtf within two years   nk:)

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.

We should all also consider that "TS" has alredy "HTF".

In a society abscent of large scale media control, instant communication and industrial strength cover-ups, our stock market would have probably already tanked ala "Black Monday". The wildfire that charred our economy to a husk then is represented now more like a pressure cooker with a valve stuck in the "full on" position.

It's building, you can see some steam, but the pressure isn't stabilizing no matter how the government tries to kink the propane hose.

All these efforts to relieve the pressure are going to ultimately be futile, but my gut instinct is the guys at the top are going to "see" that before the rest of the population, grab what they can (Another $30b to AIG, anyone?) and make a run for another country.

By the time "TSHTF" for the larger population, the leadership will probably have already moved on, taking whatever they can. That's what I use as a barometer.

Cheers!

Aaron

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.
Amanda V wrote:

...it depends how you define the Fan...

Exactly.!  I love it.  And Chris keeps saying something along these lines as well.  We have to adjust our expectations.  We have to consider redefining the fan (or the...you know.)  If we anticipate change and do our best to accommodate it, we'll have a smoother transition.

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.

I think it is wrong to focus solely on the financial markets at this point - they are in slow motion free-fall with no bottom in sight. The wild card is civil unrest - where it starts and what the response is. I doubt it will occur first in the US - but in some other country, triggering responses elsewhere. The financial system is hollowed out and is being held together by hope that the situation isn't really as bad as it seems. Most people posting here seem to be in areas/countries whose citizens are not yet feeling the full impact and there is considerable social safety net still in place. There are quite a few places in the world where this is not the case and the effects of the downturn are becoming critical.

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.
Aaron Moyer wrote:

We should all also consider that "TS" has alredy "HTF".

In a society abscent of large scale media control, instant communication and industrial strength cover-ups, our stock market would have probably already tanked ala "Black Monday". The wildfire that charred our economy to a husk then is represented now more like a pressure cooker with a valve stuck in the "full on" position.

It's building, you can see some steam, but the pressure isn't stabilizing no matter how the government tries to kink the propane hose.

All these efforts to relieve the pressure are going to ultimately be futile, but my gut instinct is the guys at the top are going to "see" that before the rest of the population, grab what they can (Another $30b to AIG, anyone?) and make a run for another country.

By the time "TSHTF" for the larger population, the leadership will probably have already moved on, taking whatever they can. That's what I use as a barometer.

Cheers!

Aaron

I agree with Aaron.  The Sh!t has already hit the fan.  It's like watching a slow motion train wreck.  Each day there is another, larger development that makes the last one look trivial.  I read somewhere yesterday about the growing numbness to the true scale of these financial numbers.  In the article the author mentioned how the former Clinton Administration tried to get a 16.9 billion stimulus bill passed.  Congress balked at a number so large.  Now, not even a decade later no one seems to blink an eye at 30 billion to AIG or ??? billion here or ?? billion there.  The stimulus packages are not going to do any good in the long run.  The system is terminal.  Keep a diary.  These days are historic.

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.

We're in it now... isn't that what we are all doing in this forum - trying to warn each other about ways to minimize the degree of sh!t on our faces!?!

This is of course subjective: if your job has ceased to exist, along with the industry you are trained in, well it's an academic question to you.

 If you've managed to stay securely employed in a niche business, and don't pay attention to any of that negative "Doom & Gloom" stuff, then you're still asking "What sh!t, what fan?"

I seriously don't think that it's possible to see the true big picture of what is happening at a given moment in time. You really need to look back over a period of months or even years to chart the trends and events contributing to the deterioration.

Suppose you were transported forward in time from just 1 year ago today to the present, and handed a stack of newspapers and business magazines. I, for one, would need an immediate change of underwear...

 

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.
ByronS wrote:

I, for one, would need an immediate change of underwear...

And quite possibly a new fan. 

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.

"I read somewhere yesterday about the growing numbness to the true scale
of these financial numbers.  In the article the author mentioned how
the former Clinton Administration tried to get a 16.9 billion stimulus
bill passed.  Congress balked at a number so large.  Now, not even a
decade later no one seems to blink an eye at 30 billion to AIG or ???
billion here or ?? billion there."

It's hard to not notice this, but in fact I reckon what is happening is that all those numbers are growing exponentially too, and are about to just blow up in our faces.  Nuclear explosions are exponential too.

the Trillion is the new Billion...

Mike

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Re: What is your best "guess" on when TSHTF.
Damnthematrix wrote:

Nuclear explosions are exponential too.

Mike -

Not to quibble, but primary and secondary physics package ignition are linear events - sometimes boosted, always big.  They just seem exponential.  I spent 4 years stationed at US Strategic Command conducting stockpile test and evaluation analysis and weapons effects modeling and learned some fascinating things. 

If you take away the people part, the physics of a NUDET is pretty interesting.

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