What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen when TSHTF?

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Mr. Fri
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What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen when TSHTF?

Yesterday I had a good conversation with a few others who hang out in this forum.  One thing I realized is that the "worse case" predictions are often talked about but what people take action on is what they believe will be the minimum amount of disruptions which will happen when TSHTF.  So, I thought it would be useful to see what we think WILL happen, not what COULD happen.

 Here's my thoughts:  I think our economic system is going to implode within the next 1-3 years.  I take this as a fact since our government is incapable of preventing it. (Two reasons, congress can't spend within a budget and the Fed is not accountable to anyone.)  With the way US debt spending is accelerating, I wouldn't be surprised if it happens within the next six months.  I also believes that when our system collapses, it will happen quickly - within a matter of days, without warning so most everyone will be caught by surprise.  I don't think society will quickly fall into disarray (ie: Mad Max) but people will be out of work and there will be food, gas and medicine shortages for 1-3 months.  The effect will be worldwide except for a few isolated places like poor farming villages in South America which aren't tied economically to the rest of the world.  There will be protests and riots in major cities but military forces will be brought in to get it under control so they won't go on for very long.  As with other currencies failures in history, a new currency will be started.  (I don't know if it will be a "New" US dollar or a World currency but it shouldn't matter in the short term.)  People will lose all their savings (and debt) and have to start over again. Society will rebuild but It will take 10 to 30 years to get back to where we are today.  I don't understand economics enough to know if gold prices will spike with the creation of a new currency but I would think so since that's the pattern in history.  Although worse things could happen, this is what I believe is the minimum that WILL happen.

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Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...

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Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...

Will respond later - just getting this into my posts queue.

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Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...

Sam, I know what you mean !  If only we could save them as favourites.  And delete them from our posts queue once we have finished with them...

Mr Fri.  I really enjoyed reading your opinion of what will happen.  The only thing I would comment on is that I wouldn't count on anything in the next 10 - 30 years.  Remember all the hockey stick graphs, for resources and oil especially.  It's not like we will be able to pick ourselves up, brush ourselves off and start business as usual.

I don't want to comment on what I think will happen because I don't know.  But I am planning for anything that COULD happen. 

I especially agree with your bit about it happening really quickly.  It was over night in Argentina.

Thanks for the post.

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Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...

Mr Fri,

I agree with Amanda, what WILL happen is hard to say, but preparing for what COULD happen is something we can do.  Someone else wrote that the collapse will happen "slowly, then all at once" which feels like what will happen and we are already in the slow part.  But as far as motivation for preparing, I do have a set of WILL happen or atleast 90% certain WILL happen expectations:

1. Collapse of the currency, creation of a new dollar or something like it, and the collapse of that and it being replaced by something that is based on gold or related to something real (however, I'm not convinced gold is a good basis for a currency in times of economic contraction so hopefully we will come up with something a little more flexilble than that).  I expect barter to be important from this point going forward.

2. High or Hyper inflation preceding this collapse event.  I expect barter to be important from this point going forward.

3. Shortages and disruption of supply chains.  Government intervention in markets, including rationing, etc.  This will be for food, water, power, gasoline (when available), etc.   I expect barter to be important from this point going forward and this may take the form of black or grey markets.  I expect the government/military to be involved in all aspects of the economy and that they will have priority on the use of gasoline.  It is likely that the government will need gold to buy from the internation markets items they percieve as necessary for national security (whatever they need to keep the military going and the congress in coffee for late nights) and may need to get that gold from the citizens.

4. Large cities will be increasingly dangerous places to be.  Areas that produce most of their own food without the need for inputs will be in the best shape going forward.  Places that rely on imported water will start to depopulate.  This means a lot of people will be internal migrants reversing the century long trend from rural to urban and will now be returning to more rural areas (maybe home prices will go up in those areas!).

5. Public health systems are already in very bad shape.  I expect that to get worse and the country to be vulnerable to an epidemic should one arrive, like SARS or worse.  Cities might feel this more than remote areas.  If food shortages are still present when something shows up then the populace might be even more vulnerable.

6. Big shift in employment to producing things more directly related to sustaining life and doing that closer to home.  When things stablalize then there will be a return to more division of labor to create the things we want to have in our society that we can afford.

I hope things aren't as bad as this.  There is still a chance that we could work the predicaments we face instead of being worked over by them.  Citizens could instist that government work for them and they could elect the people that would.  Communities that get prepared could be less effected by the changes that do happen and life could feel relatively normal although different.  We have many advantages and life could actually be more rewarding and enjoyable going forward if we face the facts of our situation and adjust our lives and support systems accordingly, the sooner the better.

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Re: Getting this forum into my posts queue

.

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Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...

Has anybody noticed that the value of the dollar has risen (and gold has been dropping) since a couple of days after the Fed announcement? This portends deflation not inflation or a dollar collapse. Its starting to look like the Fed could print $30 T and still not be able to counteract the debt deflation thats taking place. If the rest of the world is getting out of the dollar, than the only way that the dollar could rise is if the net money supply is intrinsically contracting (due to debt deflation). 

Just an observation, but planning for an end game of deflation, is the polar opposite of planning for inflation. If deflation continues at this pace, we could all be in for a rude awakening. Any ideas on how to hedge/prepare for a deflationary spiral?

Thanks for your input...Jeff 

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Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...

Jag,

That conceptual battle is being fought not only here but all over the internet, LOL.

My take on the consensus is that gold and "real goods" like food and growing materials (both ones you own and commodity stocks) seem to be the best choices to deal with both deflation and inflation.

Hi David and Amanda, long time no see! (maybe I'm just on the wrong threads; no way to flag folks to follow or as favorites, is there?).

 

SG

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Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...

HI Jeff,

Seems to me that I would do mostly the same things for deflation as inflation.  Namely, build strong communities, become as self-sufficient (or community-sufficient) as possible by gardening etc, and prepare for an economy that will not have the same kinds of opportunities as the last 25 years.   My "investing" strategy might be diffferent, but I put that in quotes because it seems like from here on out investing is less like investing and more like gambling.  But yes, one may want to make different bets under deflation than inflation, but it seems like the FED etc is committed to printing and when that kind of money starts to get out into the broader economy inflation in prices will likely result.  Already base metals have made a big comeback (50% in some cases) from their lows of a few months ago, that seems like inflation, even as some assets classes, like real estate are experiencing continued deflation.  Things seem mixed at the moment.  Oil too has made a 50% comeback from lows.  There are a lot of dollars out there that might get spent very quickly.  There are always black swan events that we don't know about yet that will probably drive this one way or another.  My strategy is still the same: Strong community, Big Garden, food storage, etc. and hedge investments by bets both for inflation and for deflation and be quick to move them when the time comes.  Strangely, gold is a crisis hedge that may work well for both inflation and deflation.  Cash is great for deflation.  Commodities for inflation.  If the oil shortage proves correct oil may rise independent of inflation or deflation in other investment/asset classes.  Good luck!

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Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...

Hi SG (I've been too busy to post much lately, but see you've been busy if you are Gold already),

I agree, what you have in hand that you need is a great investment, no matter what happens.

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Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...

Amanda you are totally right, we can not look into the future, however we can learn from the past.

I would and have looked at the examples from the collapses of Argentina, Zimbabwe and Iceland.  Especially, from the information on a thread given to us by a gentlemen from Argentina. 

It is, also, good to discuss this issue with people that lived through hurricane disasters.  They have good in-site into having resources and utilities taken away for extended periods of time.  I happen to have a person I work with that has survived through such disasters and how he prepared his family for them. 

Finally, the gardening thread started not so long ago is a fantastic resource and great method for making sure you have some fresh food coming into your family.  I have heard in the "mainstream media" that victory gardens are becoming popular again.

I hope this helps.  If you have any-further information to add I look forward to hearing from you.

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Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...
Jeff
 
My question is :  Are there any historical examples of prolongued deflation occurring in a debtor nation which is actively monetizing its debt?  Maybe someone knows.
 
 
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Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...

Here's what I predict:

1) Obama "changes the subject" (FDR-like) by allowing the CIA (or whoever) to foment war against Iran (for some trumped up reason like nuclear weapons).

2) The ensuing "state of emergency" gives Obama (thanks to Bush) the wherewithal to declare martial law.

3) Capital and currency controls are then instituted in the run-up to...

4) The establishment of the North American Union (with Bill Clinton heading up the Board of Governors).

5) In the process, and with the prospect looming of the dollar's demise as the world's reserve currency, the amero is introduced.

In this way, an EU-like super-state will be created, as regionalism attempts to fill the void amid the collapse of globalization. The attempt fails, however, as first one -- then another and another -- US state secedes, setting off a global "devolution revolution" that ultimately leads to the demise of the state per se

No, it won't be easy, but as our so-called "six degrees of separation" shrink to five, then four, etc. -- i.e., as the Internet comes of age via the rise of social networking -- the state will be emasculated accordingly, until it is seen for what it is: "half-witted," as Thoreau wrote, and "timid as a lone woman with her silver spoons."

Thus will a new age of human endeavor be ushered in and with it (might as well go all the way) the emergence of The Singularity:


An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The "returns," such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity -- technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light. 

http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1 

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Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...

I think you should be posting that on the Conspiracy thread.

 

SG

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Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...
The avoidance of anything too negative on the
mainstream media if deafening!
 
Protests and civil disorder will signal the
official start and as Celente says "when people loose everything, they have
nothing left to loose".  With the clear shift in "real" power from West to East,
the dollar value and inflation/deflation are going to be very difficult to
predict.  The G20 is going to be key, if the dollars start coming home, I think
all bets are off.
 
 
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Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...

Thanks for everyone's comments .

I'd like to get back to the purpose of this thread which lies with this question.  In your "heart of hearts" what events do you truly believe will happen in such a strong way that you're ACTIVELY preparing for them? The events I put in my first post are the ones I'm working toward preparations and I tell people in conversation they need to be prepared for them as well.  We can all come up with sensational predictions but that's not what we act on.  For example, I don't believe that I need to move out of central Texas and buy a farm somewhere to sustain my family.  Many people here do and that's fine.  (And perhaps someday I'll believe that too.) I do believe, however, that I need to start stocking up on 1-3 months of food for when shortages hit.

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Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...

The outcome cannot be divorced from Peak Oil and a whole lot of other energy considerations. The price of oil left the old OECD-OPEC Agreement of US$22-28 /barrel back in December 2003, when the demand, which was increasing at 1.6% /year, outstripped the ability to supply at that ever-increasing rate. Shortly afterwards oil supply went into "plateau phase", where the price tripled and supply only increased by 3% in 4 years or so, depending on your definitions. This required another US$1.75 trillion to be forced into the economic bubble.

The crunch point was July 11, 2008 - a Friday afternoon, when someone that understood the inevitability of Peak Oil took the bidding up to US$147 / barrel. At close of business the FDIC announced it had forced Indymac into receivership, and that talks were going on with Fanny and Freddy.  It has been all downhill since then, and the oil price is now so low that new oil projects are being shelved or cancelled, just when they should be being cranked up.

But if the economy ever picks up again, it will soon run into oil supply constraints again, and the price will rocket again, and the drag on everything will bring it down again.

Suggestions that we will find alternatives to oil are wrong-headed, because they fail to take into account that the new technology roll-out will require gigantic amounts of energy to complete. Of course it is possible to build one electric car  and twenty solar panels to recharge it, but it is not possible to build 100 million electric cars and 2 billion solar panels, because there is not enough spare energy to do it. The same argument has been put forward about nuclear energy for many years, but while Greens have been happy to cite that, they cannot bring themselves to recognise that it applies to solar, wind, ethanol, geothermal, etc etc too. This is cognitive dissonance - the inability to accept the horrible future ahead.

"Technology will save us - it always has" will no longer work in an energy-scarce environment. You can't save energy by introducing new technology because it takes too much energy to set the new stuff up.

So Peak Oil really means Peak Energy.  And Peak Energy means Peak Transport, Peak Fertiliser, Peak Food, Peak Population and Peak Civilisation. In the face of all this, it is a bit pointless discussing how best to buy gold without paying too much commission. The chances are that everyone here is going to die of hunger. If you set up a garden, then the idiots that didn't bother will come and take your food from you at gun point, and I include the Army/Police/National Guard/Hell's Angels/Mafia in that.

In the face of this macro-collapse, there is nothing you can do except hope that the collapse happens before the planet is totally ruined by Business As Usual.

If you really want to "do something", then give up working for the rotten system, and start destroying the worst parts of existing civilisation - those things that belch CO2.  There are going to be riots in every city, so use the opportunity to steer the angry mob into destroying the things that threaten to destroy the atmosphere - power stations, transmission grids, smelters, cars, plastics factories.  Accelerate the inevitable collapse. At least the wildlife will heave a big sigh of relief.

 

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Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...
DaveK wrote:

So Peak Oil really means Peak Energy.  And Peak Energy means Peak Transport, Peak Fertiliser, Peak Food, Peak Population and Peak Civilisation.

Great Post DaveK.  Especially enjoyed your term "peak civilisation"

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Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...
Mr. Fri wrote:

I'd like to get back to the purpose of this thread which lies with this question.  In your "heart of hearts" what events do you truly believe will happen in such a strong way that you're ACTIVELY preparing for them?

Mr. Fri,

I think the question is incomplete, in that it is certain that some day all life on the planet will cease to exist if you look far enough out, so you need to add a bit of a scale of time to the question. Since nobody can predict with certainly the time things are going to happen in, even this seems a weak addition to the question, so I will answer in what I perceive the stages of decline to be.

Stage 1:  Dollar destruction.

As long as there are dollars and some part large part of the workforce is employed (even at 25% unemployment, 75% of people are working) there will be an economy, trade, grocery stores, oil availability, etc. As things get worse, we will likely see certain items cease to be relevant as they do not provide for the basics of life as in Maslow's Hierarchy, so they will not get money spent on them and will fade away. Obvious items like this are the cheap plastic crap we get from China, Twinkies, many restaurants, specialty stores, Wall street, and many other facets of life that do not provide a roof or food.

I see ultimately a complete destruction of the dollar, and this will come over the next 6 mo - 2 years. During this time, many people will see the writing on the wall (as so many are beginning to already) and Will begin to plan for themselves, including gardens, security, community, etc. This will ultimately make the first stage more tolerable for many, although you will have those who did not prepare and can no longer live from the supermarket, as the trucks will stop rolling very quickly when they are no longer paid.

For me, this means this phase of my life is over, and I switch from 80% businessman 20% farmer to 100% farmer overnight.

Stage 2:  Shortages

Within a short period the amount of supplies on hand of everything from gas to auto parts to firewood to water to seeds to everything will be in sporadic short supply. This is really the stage most people are preparing for. Your clothes that come from Costa Rica or the Dominican Republic will be interrupted, and therefore stocking up on essentials is important to get from the time that everything we need is outsourced, to everything we need is made locally.

Energy will be of primary concern. The grid is likely to fail in large areas for extended periods. Oil products will be scarce and very expensive.

This is when the difficulties of people who have not properly prepared really start to become obvious. Violence will be common and increasing. Depending on community will be vital to keeping the peace locally. The "Bubba Effect" of local militias and communities of people interdependent on each other will be the functional foxholes that allow some semblance of civilization to remain. Unlike the rest of the world, folks in the US are used to being taken care of, so the skill sets of the 40s and 50s will need to be re-learned in order to survive.

If you have properly prepared for this stage, and the government doesn't see fit to take your preparations from you, you can make it though this stage as long as you are willing and able to work hard and get your hands dirty.

Stage 3:  Die-off

As grotesque as this sounds, there are those who will not, can not, or choose not to prepare. Some will use force to take what you have done (and perhaps get mortally wounded in the process) or will simply starve, freeze, or otherwise perish. The government will be incapable of helping everyone.

This will be a most difficult stage to be sure. We have exceeded the carrying capacity of the earth many times over. Take away the massive infrastructure to feed us all, and what will remain is the carrying capacity of the area. The best estimate I have heard of an oil free carrying capacity of the earth is 1B people.

It may take 20 or more years to reach this equilibrium.

Stage 4:  Existence

After all of the fits and spurts, government interventions, and external forces, eventually there will be an agrarian society left over. It will most likely look similar to the early 1900s, but with some technology. All that we have learned will not be lost, but most technology will not be powered up unless it allows for food production, or some other essential part of life.

I predict that the world will get bigger again, and governments smaller. There won't be planes leaving every minute from your local airport. Travel will not be as necessary, as we will develop the skills and infrastructure to provide what we need within the community. Those with skill as a carpenter will be more highly valued than the banker, as it should be.

Stage 5:   Rebuilding

This one is so far out in the future, I cannot begin to say what it will look like. I can only hope that we find a way to provide ample energy so that things like college and innovation are a realistic part of society. Who knows?

I believe that this is the minimum that will happen over the next 30 years. I find it difficult to believe that there is much we can do at this point to reverse it, as there are too many years of human behavior invested in this path we are on.

It is not hopeless at all, so I hope that is not what is read into this. We need to be flexible about our viewpoint on what we expect from life is, however after a year of preparation, I personally find myself ready for the change. The anger that I feel for the folks at places like AIG and the Fed Reserve is shared by so many people. It is time for a change. It is unfortunate that we needed to hit a physical limit of the planet to create this change, but I am happy for it whatever it's reason. I am not afraid, but I am a little anxious.

So, you asked for the minimum. I find this to be the minimum that is inevitable due to the limits of the planet. If you were to ask the question of the minimum that will happen in 2009, I can see that this would be the final year we have to prepare for stage 1, and that there will be a lot of hand wringing in the government and programs / printing to try to re-inflate the bubble, so those efforts will have a role in extending our time here. So, the minimum for 2009, if you are able to keep your job: nothing.

Best,

Rog

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Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...
Mr. Fri wrote:

In your "heart of hearts" what events do you truly believe will happen in such a strong way that you're ACTIVELY preparing for them?

Framed by what Rog posted above (nicely done BTW) here's my take.

I don't think the bottoming is going to be rapid.  It will be driven by a gradual demise of the dollar and a slow awakening of our government officials that what they are doing isn't helping.  I see the dollar unraveling in 2-4 years.  As that happens, I believe conditions will deteriorate as Rog described, but it will be a slow enough decay that people will see it happening around them and adjust accordingly.  I think it will happen slow enough that communities will be able to "spring up" - local political leaders will have much more sway than the goofballs in DC.  Some areas will have localized rough times - urban areas more so than suburbia or the rural areas.  The unjustifiably self-entitled will wait for someone to bail them out, but in the end will be forced to cooperate with established communities or die trying.  One good piece of fallout from this will be the obliteration of Hollywood Babylon and the idiocy of American society's fixation with celebrity.  Throw professional sports in there as well (a fixation I confess to having)  We will find equilibrium eventually, but I don't think it will be as harsh as Rog outlined.

We will muddle along on this path for 10-15 years and adjust to our new reality.  At some point one has to consider the possibility of a worldwide pandemic or a technological break through that provides cheap or free renewable and sustainable energy.

Now, specifically what are we getting ready for?

1.  We aren't moving anytime soon.  We are assembling and identifying a local circle of friends and family with various skill sets that we can all rely on in a community sense.

2.  We are actively trading the market to pay off all of our debt, amassing a reasonable cash holding (constrained by the expectation of the dollar going to zero), amassing gold and silver holdings to allow for bartering or buying in to whatever new scrip or currency system we end up with.

3.  One year's worth of stored food and water (or long term water purification ability).

4.  One year's worth of household consumables (soap, toilet paper, razors, toothpaste, etc.)  Framed in the realization that our current creature comfort level is not realistic and our end state will be much different.

5.  The ability to grow all of what we need to eat, plus surplus to help take care of others.

6.  The ability to fairly comfortably live off grid.  No heat, no lights, no A/C, but a roof over my head and four walls to keep the wind and rain away.  I can wear jackets and sleep under a lot of blankets or in a -20 degree mummy bag as long as I need to.

7.  The ability to protect myself, family and friends/community from forseeable and reasonable threats.  Not to give any creedence to the NWO Conspiracy Theorists out there, but if the lizard people show up to try and take me and my tomatoes down, they will no doubt win, but I am going to take a whole bunch with me and what's left is going to know they were in a scrap.

If it ends up being worse than what we have prepared for - so be it.  We'll manage as best we can.  If it's not as bad as what we are preparing for then we are better off for it.  I'm sure I left something off, but that's the 95% list.

 

Great post Mr. Fri  - very interesting posts to look forward to each day.

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Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...

Thanks Dogs for the post.  You answered exactly what I wanted to know. 

Any other takers?  Someone else want to tell us what exactly you're preparing for?

BTW - I almost woke my wife up laughing about the lizard people.  Hey, don't cats like to chase after lizards?

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Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...

I agree with Dogs,

It will be a longer slower "death" of sorts.

That said, I am usually wrong with economic predictions and knew in my heart to get out of the market when it danced with 13000..... but I didn't.

 

I am trying in ernest to get out of debt as quickly as possible. That is, debt that will take my house, car or other things I might "need".

I hope it will take 2 years for the economic STHTF because I think it will take me that long to address my issues.

 

I do have a funny thought, funny odd, not funny "ha ha".

To all of you who know this stuff better than me, what I see unfolding is this. At a national level, (Fed, Treasury) the same thing is being done as what the "typical" homeowner has done. They have made a 125% LTV on the country trying to "buy" their way into prosperity. You know, the homeowner, puts in a new kitchen (infrastructure spending) because it "helps the value of the house" then, maybe new windows, (energy conservation projects) lets not forget paint and decorations along with new furniture (pork spending) and lastly, with that little bit of equity left, go out and buy a new car using that 25% over 100% LTV (bail-outs of the auto industry etc.). Now what happened? Both spouses were working, kids in soccer, baseball, dance etc. and the first thing was the ARM came due to re-balance (debt servicing) House payment shot up. Oil prices spiked (fixed legacy costs increased) and then, one spouse got laid off. (broad unemployment decreasing tax revenue) minimum debt servicing could not be made, the house payment (Treasury bonds can't be paid). Billy can't do soccer, Sally has to quit dance... The family looses the house and has to live in a tent, or in the back of the new Audi Q5 (what does the country do?)

From this point is where the analogy falls apart. In a single family, they lose the house and have to live on the street.

What happens to the country? Who takes over? Is this the SHTF point?

In the single household scenario, it takes at least 6 months before they have to move, 3 months for the bank to notice, another 3 months to foreclose (longer now) and lets say after other interventions, the McMansion is empty in 8 months. What happens next is ugly for the family. But, they still live.

Nationally, I think we are still in the run-up of debt. Still maxing out the home equity line and the credit cards. If a family can take a year to max things out, the country may take two. If, and I say if, the economy can limp along until the next presidential election, with some type of intervention that gets Obama reelected, shortly into his second term, or whoever wins... is when I see the house crumble.

Now, the best case scenario, is, the economy drudges along like it is and there is no real "recovery" and it just putters along for years.Energy costs are what breaks the bank. This is the slow agonizing death I think the country is in for.

 

C.

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becky
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Joined: Jan 8 2009
Posts: 113
Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...

RNcarl,

Good analogy.  What happens to the country?  It's really too scary to joke about, but my first thought was maybe we can move back in with the parents (England/France/Spain...).  But, this time, Mom and Dad are in just as much trouble.

Sigh....Guess I'll just keep working to pay off my debt and tend to my garden. 

becky 

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capesurvivor
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Posts: 963
Re: What do you think will be the Minimum-Argentina

 

 This Argentinian economist's two videos are interesting and sobering. Comments?

 

http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/596.html

 

SG

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SamLinder
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Posts: 1499
Re: What do you think will be the Minimum-Argentina
capesurvivor wrote:

 

This Argentinian economist's two videos are interesting and sobering. Comments?

 

http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/596.html

 

SG

SG,

While first watching the two videos, I thought maybe he had some valid points. However, upon delving further into his writings and his web site (http://www.asalbuchi.com.ar/category/english/), I find him to be a little over the top and a strong anti-Zionist and conspiracist - thus losing quite a bit of credibility.

Read this article and you'll see what I mean: http://www.asalbuchi.com.ar/2009/01/the-problem-with-obama/

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capesurvivor
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
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Posts: 963
Re: What do you think will be the Minimum-Argentina

I hate it when that happens. Every time I send my dad a video or essay  he wikipedia's them and finds out they're wanted for mass murder or child molesting. Anti-Zionist stuff is in the same category. I'll check out your links...

Thanks for doing better research than I did.

 

SG

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Mr. Fri
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Posts: 220
Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...
RNcarl wrote:

Now, the best case scenario, is, the economy drudges along like it is and there is no real "recovery" and it just putters along for years.Energy costs are what breaks the bank. This is the slow agonizing death I think the country is in for.

I really don't think the US is going to putter along with a slow death.   There's a big problem with our elected officials in DC not being able to control their spending.  Like a kid in a candy shop, they want everything they can dream of.  They spend with no thought on where the money is coming from. That debt is going to bite them in the behind in the near future.  If we replaced the congress with "Martenson minded" people who understood the crash course that we're on, it might be able to putter along and not totally crash.  But, that will never happen.

 

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Lemonyellowschwin
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Posts: 561
Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...

Dave,

I was totally with you for most of your post, even when you got up to Peak Civilization, which I totally get.  But then you jumped into a different realm by saying that this all means violence, starvation and a decsent into chaos.  I'm not sure that is at all inevitable; even though peak oil surely is.

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Bill85
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Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...

So, I thought it would be useful to see what we think WILL happen, not what COULD happen.

 
[/quote

 

First let say that I am generally more pessimistic than optimistic in every aspect of life. I really appreciate the efforts of Chris, Davos and the many others who gather and intelligently present information here and that includes the forum posters as well. I do not get to read as many articles as I'd like due to work so I'm sure I miss alot. While optimism is evident here, pessimism seems to reign and for good reason. I do find the sheer quantity of pessimisn coupled with my own to be too much at times.

I tend to agree that the collapse will be slower rather that all at once. I think it will follow the same pattern seen since Sept. 08. A series of large, sudden drops followed by a leveling off and even some rebounds followed by more of the same. I'm sure there will be some shortages, anarchy etc but its very difficult to say how bad that will get. The one thing that I see a real lack of here on the site is the recognition that most people and communities are basically good. When things get bad we generally look out for one another and do the right thing. 

I do not see a future without technology, infrastructure etc like some seem to believe. Necessity IS the mother of invention! We humans have an amazing ability to make the best of a bad situation not only to survive but to grow. Once oil and other resources become too scarce or expensive we will see big growth in areas and ways we cannot even imagine today. 

To be sure, it's going to get much worse before it gets better. Besides being different, the next 20 years will be interesting!

Bill

The Positive Pessimist

 

 

 

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Gungnir
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Posts: 643
Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...

LemonYellowSchwin

I believe you're an optimist. Unfortunately I've with Dave, once economies begin to contract, and food production (which at least in the US) begins to fail or become cost prohibitive then things will become seriously bad.

My expectations is due to contractions of food production and supply (again in the US we have a strongly centralized food production system, requiring petrochemicals for growing and fuel to transport to end users), and the energy economy, we may find that global human population begins to fall back to pre industrial revolution densities, through a number of causes. Famine, War/Social upheaval, Disease, the "strong" will try to take from the "weak" be that at the national level, or local level (to Dave's point Hells Angels/Military/Mafia/etc.), once people realize that the system cannot be supported any more by global energy production.

My rationale as to why it's inevitable is that the vast majority of people in the developed world operate in a state of inertia, that is they continue to think things will stay the same. Even some people who understand Peak Oil, Peak Energy, and the issues that we face in real terms in the next decade or so, there's the optimistic glow that we can resolve these issues. I think these issues are too great to overcome in the time scale we have. Yes solar can help as can wind/hydro and bio-fuels for energy production, but how long would it take to convert the worlds fleet of vehicles to run on Electricity, or even Bio-Fuels? Not to mention build Power Generation plants using those technologies to replace oil fired power plants.Had this started at the last big Oil Crisis, then maybe we'd be in a better position, but the Crisis went away, things continued as normal and Bigger and Larger vehicles came and replaced the vehicles that were created in those times so technological gains in fuel economy were lost by increased engine capacities and heavier vehicles. Which illustrates the state of inertia I was talking about.

What's more is that if you look at the resources used by the western world it amounts to an unbalanced ratio of Global Production, we consume more than we can possibly make, and that makes the system unsustainable, when the countries supplying us the resources they have an excess of no longer have that excess. Thus we will be hit earlier and harder than less developed countries, possibly leading to military action to secure those areas.

So some day in the 2010-2030 range people are going to wake up, and find they can't afford the basics, nothing to eat, reduced water supplies, heating in winter is cost prohibitive, Gasoline is used for getting to and from work only. Then what are these people going to do? The vast majority will fall victim to evolution, starvation malnutrition and disease. Some will take to raiding others who have the basics they need, in particular food and drinking water, or small caches of fuels. 

This isn't the stuff of nightmarish Science Fiction either, it's occurred in many places before, in Africa, Eastern Europe during the collapse of Communism, etc. etc. Now it's coming to the Western World too, it's just a matter of time, it could be in our lifetime (depending on your age) or our childrens lifetime, but it is coming.

 

.'s picture
.
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 22 2008
Posts: 167
Re: What do you think will be the Minimum that will happen ...
Gungnir wrote:

My rationale as to why it's inevitable is that the vast majority of people in the developed world operate in a state of inertia, that is they continue to think things will stay the same. Even some people who understand Peak Oil, Peak Energy, and the issues that we face in real terms in the next decade or so, there's the optimistic glow that we can resolve these issues. I think these issues are too great to overcome in the time scale we have. Yes solar can help as can wind/hydro and bio-fuels for energy production, but how long would it take to convert the worlds fleet of vehicles to run on Electricity, or even Bio-Fuels? Not to mention build Power Generation plants using those technologies to replace oil fired power plants.Had this started at the last big Oil Crisis, then maybe we'd be in a better position, but the Crisis went away, things continued as normal and Bigger and Larger vehicles came and replaced the vehicles that were created in those times so technological gains in fuel economy were lost by increased engine capacities and heavier vehicles. Which illustrates the state of inertia I was talking about.

What's more is that if you look at the resources used by the western world it amounts to an unbalanced ratio of Global Production, we consume more than we can possibly make, and that makes the system unsustainable, when the countries supplying us the resources they have an excess of no longer have that excess. Thus we will be hit earlier and harder than less developed countries, possibly leading to military action to secure those areas.

So some day in the 2010-2030 range people are going to wake up, and find they can't afford the basics, nothing to eat, reduced water supplies, heating in winter is cost prohibitive, Gasoline is used for getting to and from work only. Then what are these people going to do? The vast majority will fall victim to evolution, starvation malnutrition and disease. Some will take to raiding others who have the basics they need, in particular food and drinking water, or small caches of fuels. 

This isn't the stuff of nightmarish Science Fiction either, it's occurred in many places before, in Africa, Eastern Europe during the collapse of Communism, etc. etc. Now it's coming to the Western World too, it's just a matter of time, it could be in our lifetime (depending on your age) or our childrens lifetime, but it is coming.

 

 

Gungnir,

 As much as I don't want to believe what you have written I have a tendency to think your correct.  I'm sure someone on this website has mentioned Dr. Robert Hirsch who wrote a report for the Department of Energy.  His assessment was in order to have a smooth transition from FF to alternative energy, we must address the problem at 30 years prior to peak oil.  If we waited until 10 years prior to the peak, it would create great turmoil in the world economy.  I think most people on this website would agree from the information pulled from various sources and posted here that we have hit peak oil extraction.  We most likely will never see production capacity above 87 mbd.  This is a disaster.  How it plays out is yet to be seen.  Although I would like to remain optimistic, I am preparing for the worst. 

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