What Can We Learn From Europe (PIIGS)?

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Nichoman's picture
Nichoman
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Posts: 422
What Can We Learn From Europe (PIIGS)?

Posit the events of the past several months in Greece and now spreading further across Europe provide valuable clues to many things that will happen over the next several months to few years.

Questions (and offer many/most/all of the answers provided)... 

  1. Can we develop a list of metrics (gauges if you will) that indicate what will happen in other countries (regionally/worldwide)...leading to default(s) and collapse?
  2. The ability and future of countries governments to address the real problem(s)?
  3. The peoples responses?
  4. The rate of spreading and deterioration (tied to question 1)?
  5. What safe vehicles (like PM's) can provide toward access to available resources as conditions deteriorate and when to purchase?
  6. How CC (local communities) can be dovetailed or interwoven to the 5 questions above?

We have opportunities...no need to focus on concern (acceptance?) on on unsustainable system that we have no control over.

Discussion of the 6 questions above...offer we can use this as a vehicle for insight, toward learning, then implement many actions (individually and collectively) more clearly and wisely.

In farming, our family is always saddened by misfortune of our fellow farmers and ourselves...yet we can always learn to limit exposure/impacts.

Nichoman

JAG's picture
JAG
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 26 2008
Posts: 2492
Re: What Can We Learn From Europe (PIIGS)?

Hi Nichoman,

From your prior contributions I know you are a smart guy, but to honest, I'm not clear on what you are communicating in this post.

Care to elaborate?

Best...Jeff

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Nichoman
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 1 2008
Posts: 422
Re: My Vision and Analysis

Jeff:

Sure.

Again to reiterate...am a scientist...analyst, manager/leader...that uses and has participated in the development of models.  The atmospheric models we run...many I've contributed to their release.  Work for the Federal Gov't.  The taxpayers have spent millions of dollars in my "education and training".

Regarding Question 1.  In a broad, practical sense...we can use vehicles such as CDS and other highly leveraged derivatives like 2nd and 3rd order representation of  real world...like rate of change or rate of the rate of change of something (like velocity or speed/direction of something moving).   These vehicles behavior (over time) speaks in basic sense to volatility.  Coupled this the bond yield curve changes speaks to also the confidence in the government(s).  Now...compared to past cases we can develop statistical patterns (e.g. Argentina...Rome, etc) ...if applied cautiously maybe one can create algorithm(s) and statistical relationships.      What in a macro sense is were seeing a series of events or stair steps of "collapses in confidence".  This is in line with points I've posted on and forecast for well over a year.   The reasonable human and physical processes that have happened in the past and will varying degrees happen to all of us the next several months and years. Observations and understanding of the processes and indicators can tell us a bit how things will spread and  impact all our lives.   This could aid in timely decision-making.    Again...offer much of what is and will happen is predictable to certain degree...do people understand what to look for?

The analysis and draft calculations I continue to work on...data from spreadsheets and weighting factors (unfortunately still too subjective) are on track.  That is...increased volatility with a series of larger and more volatile events through the year and into next year as I've previous posted on.   It also from energy spectrum scale analysis of societies...indications are societies and nations not functioning as we know them or failed (including US) by fall of 2011...best case pushed to 2012.  It's all in how one weights tho the input variables.

Now Question 2.  The events clearly show what many/most know...or government are all clueless or unable to deal with the causes and challenges ahead.  A good example is last week we had a national meeting at NOAA...the new vision is a bigger, more complex system not a more efficient and effective system or lifestyle...as correctly articulated by Chris Martenson.    This is President Obama's vision and there is no evidence this is what the average citizen wants.  That's why I've stated Governments "are a special interest".   This conflicts 180 degrees from their goals.

On the 3rd Question.   Greece and other past cases clearly indicate major societal distress is beginning.  If one monitors...using demograpics one can infer and to a degree predict the extent and probability in one's neighborhood.   Them overall magnitude to impacts on Governments.  In the US case...one example ...will stay together as country or not?   The data looking at is inconclusive but indicates the trajectory is for completely different or country broken into regions.   This is my analysis...not anyone else's...such as Orlov.    Again most favored time period late 2011 into late 2012 suggested.   Deal with uncertainties everyday at work...there is enough substance...from analysis have to suggest this is not only plausible...but probable.   How many here are considering this?

Question 4.    The process unraveling is predictable and the next several months...can aid to what will happen and spread over the world.  One can weight the factors to key concepts like MV=PQ...also first and second order economic parameters that Chris...myself and others track...but their is a physical cause and effect relationship.

Question 5..  What has happened and will happen more in the next several months should speak volumes where to keep money.   Look at PM prices in Euros...Energy...Food.   Do others see any other areas?   Things are useful but not necessary are becoming cheaper as people become poorer.  Many of these things will be needed later...when to purchase?

Question 6.  Offer these all can be useful to Crash Course and developing local sustainable communities.

This road map in general is set with the speed of the journey the lingering question.   As a person who has been in multiple combat (B-52's) and also two major natural disasters (Mt St Helens and Mt Pinatubo)...preparation and situational awareness tailored toward adaptability are the keys to coming through challenging times.

If I'm incorrect or others differ...am all ears.   The post...to see if others are perceiving things in a similar way.  As an observationalist...didn't want to advocate...just query initially.  This appears to have been too ambitious.

Do have more people in my agency each day who are more open...concerned or even agree with me what is happening.   But bureaucrats are a peculiar and dangerous breed that are programmed to survive first.    The power of the system for status quo and to grow is remarkable from a person on the inside of our federal government.   The top folks...well.

2 cents.

Nichoman

JAG's picture
JAG
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 26 2008
Posts: 2492
Re: What Can We Learn From Europe (PIIGS)?

Nichoman,

Thanks for taking the time to elaborate on your observations. Much of what you describe and hypothesize in question 1 can be found in Carman Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff's recent book This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Google Books). Its an exhaustive work and quite a laborious read, but it does clearly establish the parameters of a banking crisis, and what to expect based on historical research.

Re: Demographics and the probability of citizen uprisings, is your conclusion that the higher the ratio of young adults in a given population, the higher probability of street violence in a crisis?

 

 

Nichoman's picture
Nichoman
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 1 2008
Posts: 422
Re: What Can We Learn From Europe (PIIGS)?

Jeff:

Agree. Reinhart and Rogoff's book appendix (data) are included in the ongoing analysis.  The relevance and quality of the data (as the authors correctly articulate) are a challenge.  It is an excellent book that have recommended as required reading in an earlier post.

The demographics issue possibly.   Population Density, income, education, belief systems (i.e. religion), culture, age, unemployment are the factors ranking in reviewing and comparing as events unfold.  Most studies rank factors similar to the above that have access to.

 

Nichoman

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