US to become energy independent in 2017!

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Phil Williams's picture
Phil Williams
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US to become energy independent in 2017!

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6735#more

There is a really good article on the projected oil imports going forward for the US on The Oil Drum. Hooray! We won't have to worry about that pesky oil importing problem in 7 short years. Problem solved, hydrogen hover cars for everyone. I can't wait, it's going to be just like Back to the Future part II. I want the hover skateboard. Laughing 

 

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Phil Williams
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Re: US to become energy independent in 2017!

Maybe a better title should have been "US manipulating gold eagles with Tungsten". Then we would have a 12 page discussion on GATA, the Comex, real money vs. fiat currencies, and whether or not gold will matter when things fall apart. Seriously everyone, does anyone think that it is news worthy or discussion worthy that we may be without oil imports in 7 years? I think the export land model and the falling oil imports are so overlooked. What's more real, all this debt and paper or the lack of oil imports? They can't print that. By the way, oil use in the US went up in the last depression after a brief fall. 

As a paid member here, I really get good value from Dr. M's reports, and I learn a lot from the posts here, but I think we miss the connection between energy and the economy too much. I see these long drawn out detailed discussions about gold, silver, inflation, deflation, but rarely do I see any discussion on what makes everything go. Any thoughts?

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Subprime JD
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Re: US to become energy independent in 2017!

From the Oil Drum article you referenced;

If recent past patterns from Figure 1 continue, net imports may continue to fall quickly--hopefully not as quickly as illustrated in Figure 13, but it is not completely outside the realm of possibility.

The drop in imports we have seen to date are in a world with flat oil production. We really don't know what happens when world oil production in total begins to decline--it seems as though total world exports / imports are likely to drop even faster than the past.

Our biggest source of imports is Canada--but Canada is not really all that large a producer of oil, and its production is almost flat (with increases in oil sands production offsetting decreases in other production). Canada depends on oil imports itself, so if there is a shortfall, Canada may be under pressure to reduce exports.

I believe you were joking in your original post or had misread the last portion of the article. US crude oil imports are falling due to flat global production with ever higher demand. Less crude to go around for each importer.

Futhermore the article makes no mention of hydrogen vehicles but what it be nice of they actually did exist! Laughing

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cmartenson
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Re: US to become energy independent in 2017!
zeroenergy21 wrote:

Maybe a better title should have been "US manipulating gold eagles with Tungsten". Then we would have a 12 page discussion on GATA, the Comex, real money vs. fiat currencies, and whether or not gold will matter when things fall apart. Seriously everyone, does anyone think that it is news worthy or discussion worthy that we may be without oil imports in 7 years? I think the export land model and the falling oil imports are so overlooked. What's more real, all this debt and paper or the lack of oil imports? They can't print that. By the way, oil use in the US went up in the last depression after a brief fall. 

As a paid member here, I really get good value from Dr. M's reports, and I learn a lot from the posts here, but I think we miss the connection between energy and the economy too much. I see these long drawn out detailed discussions about gold, silver, inflation, deflation, but rarely do I see any discussion on what makes everything go. Any thoughts?

Energy is everything.

All else is noise on top of ample energy.

A very nice summary of this recently was penned by John Michael Greer.  Anybody who can read and internalize these next few paragraphs, and then combine that with the understanding that our economy is just another complex system that owes its entire structure and form to the useful degradation of concentrated energy into heat, is in a position to understand why the future is going to be completely different from the past:

The ways of the force

Let’s start with some basic definitions. Energy is the capacity to do work. It cannot be created or destroyed, but the amount and kind of work it can do can change. The more concentrated it is, the more work it can do; the more diffuse it is, the less work it can do. Left to itself, it moves from more concentrated to more diffuse forms over time, and everything you do with energy has a price tag measured in a loss of concentration. These are the groundrules of thermodynamics, and everything a green wizard does comes back to them in one way or another.

Let’s look at some examples. A garden bed, to begin with, is a device for collecting energy from the sun by way of the elegant biochemical dance of photosynthesis. Follow a ray of sunlight from the thermonuclear cauldron of the sun, across 93 million miles of hard vacuum and a few dozen miles of atmosphere, until it falls on the garden bed. Around half the sunlight reflects off the plants, which is why the leaves look bright green to you instead of flat black; most of the rest is used by the plants to draw water up from the ground into their stems and leaves, and expel it into the air; a few per cent is caught by chloroplasts – tiny green disks inside the cells of every green plant, descended from blue-green algae that were engulfed but not destroyed by some ancestral single-celled plant maybe two billion years ago – and used to turn water and carbon dioxide into sugars, which are rich in chemical energy and power the complex cascade of processes we call life.

Most of those sugars are used up keeping the plant alive. The rest are stored up until some animal eats the plant. Most of the energy in the plants the animal eats gets used up keeping the animal alive; the rest get stored up, until another animal eats the first animal, and the process repeats. Sooner or later an animal manages to die without ending up in somebody else’s stomach, and its body becomes a lunch counter for all the creatures – and there are a lot of them – that make their livings by cleaning up dead things. By the time they’re finished with their work, the last of the energy from the original beam of sunlight that fell on the garden bed is gone.

Where does it go? Diffuse background heat. That’s the elephant’s graveyard of thermodynamics, the place energy goes to die. Most often, when you do anything with energy – concentrate it, move it, change its form – the price for that gets paid in low-grade heat. All along the chain from the sunlight first hitting the leaf to the last bacterium munching on the last scrap of dead coyote, what isn’t passed onward in the form of stored chemical energy is turned directly or indirectly into heat so diffuse that it can’t be made to do any work other than jiggling molecules a little. The metabolism of the plant generates a trickle of heat; the friction of the beetle’s legs on the leaf generates a tiny pulse of heat; the mouse, the snake, and the coyote all turn most of the energy they take in into heat, and all that heat radiates out into the great outdoors, warming the atmosphere by a tiny fraction of a degree, and slowly spreading up and out into the ultimate heat sink of deep space.

One of the things I do is information scout to try and keep on top of rapid developments and (hopefully) pluck some of the signal from the noise.

The more important thing that I do, especially for enrolled members, is to (hopefully) help people understand what's truly important to our future.  There is nothing more essential than truly 'getting' the connection between the economy, energy and the environment, although the energy/economy nexis is the most immediate and urgent concern.

At least that is the angle I bring to the conversation.

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robie robinson
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Re: US to become energy independent in 2017!

"All flesh is grass" a wonderful read from Acres USA. It's also a scripture quote Isaiah 40:6

robie husband,father,farmer,optometrist

V's picture
V
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Re: US to become energy independent in 2017!

The heading of this thread is somewhat misleading. The article actually talks about oil and oil only. Granted oil is the number one form of energy but there are also other forms to consider. The US at some point in the future will be energy independent as exporting countries will no longer export oil. The other forms of energy which we will not be importing will be the energy we will have to rely on. So energy independence is one thing but to realize that what looks like may not be too pleasant a prospect. Unless there is some major discovery of an energy source that is capable of replacing oil ( or some technological breakthrough, though technology is not energy) we will be independent relying on alternatives, coal and biomass.

In other words we will be powering down though independent.

V

ps These are the last days of Ancient Sunlight.

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Phil Williams
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Re: US to become energy independent in 2017!
V wrote:

The heading of this thread is somewhat misleading. The article actually talks about oil and oil only. Granted oil is the number one form of energy but there are also other forms to consider. The US at some point in the future will be energy independent as exporting countries will no longer export oil.

V

The heading was the point. I figured the crowd here would realize that it is a forced energy independence. I was joking, but I guess not obvious enough. Maybe more people would have given the article a read if the heading was "We are totally F-ed in 7 years"Laughing. I just find the export land model and the exponential function working in reverse fascinating. This is not an occurence that is decades away. This will start biting within a couple of years. I think it could actually be worse when countries start hoarding. I try to imagine this country in seven years trying to live on 4.5 million BPD down from 18. We are used to increasing energy resources, not exponentially decreasing resources. Actually, our entire economic system, as Dr M says, requires increasing inputs of energy. Without a plan beyond the military seizing control of oil around the globe, it will be a transition that will be awfully painful.

   

 

Phil Williams's picture
Phil Williams
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Posts: 345
Re: US to become energy independent in 2017!
bearmarkettrader wrote:

From the Oil Drum article you referenced;

If recent past patterns from Figure 1 continue, net imports may continue to fall quickly--hopefully not as quickly as illustrated in Figure 13, but it is not completely outside the realm of possibility.

The drop in imports we have seen to date are in a world with flat oil production. We really don't know what happens when world oil production in total begins to decline--it seems as though total world exports / imports are likely to drop even faster than the past.

Our biggest source of imports is Canada--but Canada is not really all that large a producer of oil, and its production is almost flat (with increases in oil sands production offsetting decreases in other production). Canada depends on oil imports itself, so if there is a shortfall, Canada may be under pressure to reduce exports.

I believe you were joking in your original post or had misread the last portion of the article. US crude oil imports are falling due to flat global production with ever higher demand. Less crude to go around for each importer.

Futhermore the article makes no mention of hydrogen vehicles but what it be nice of they actually did exist! Laughing

BMT,

        Thank you. I should have put those important points in the article out so people would not have to wonder whether it was worth their time to click on the link. Sorry if you were disappointed about not really getting that sweet hydrogen car! Smile

 

Phil Williams's picture
Phil Williams
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 14 2009
Posts: 345
Re: US to become energy independent in 2017!
cmartenson wrote:

 

One of the things I do is information scout to try and keep on top of rapid developments and (hopefully) pluck some of the signal from the noise.

The more important thing that I do, especially for enrolled members, is to (hopefully) help people understand what's truly important to our future.  There is nothing more essential than truly 'getting' the connection between the eonomy, energy and the environment, although the energy/economy nexis is the most immediate and urgent concern.

At least that is the angle I bring to the conversation.

Dr M,

       I'm sorry, I think I was unclear. I see the noise getting beaten to death on the discussion boards. Your reports are one of the few places I go where I think I am getting the big picture. That was especially evident in your lastest insider report on Iran. Thank you for the work you do, my subscription has been worth every penny! Don't get me wrong I am not trying to be critical of the general discussion boards, because there are some really great posters here, but it just seems to me that the energy E gets a fraction of the attention as the economy E. 

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