Unemployment rate now stands at 8.5%

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cat233's picture
cat233
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Posts: 575
Unemployment rate now stands at 8.5%
March Nonfarm Payrolls -663K vs -660K consensus, prior
-651K
March Unemployment Rate 8.5% vs 8.5% consensus
March Average Hourly Earnings m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% consensus,
prior +0.2%; Average Hourly Earnings y/y +3.6% vs +3.5% consensus, prior
+3.6%
March Average Weekly Hours 33.2 vs 33.3 consensus, prior
33.3
According to official government statistics, nonfarm payrolls for March
fell 663,000, which is slightly more than the 660,000 job losses that economists
expected. March's tally reflects 12,000 more job losses than the month before.
The national unemployment rate now stands at 8.5%, which is spot on with what
was expected, but up from the previous rate of 8.1%. Average hourly earnings for
March were up 0.2%, which matched expectations, while average weekly hours March
was in-line at 33.2.
Source: Briefing.com
cat233's picture
cat233
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 20 2008
Posts: 575
Re: Unemployment rate now stands at 8.5%
Payrolls Decline
 

There is not much good news in the March employment report, and
that is not surprising. Payrolls fell 663,000. That was in-line with an expected
650,000 decline. There were widespread losses by employment category. Education
and health care managed an 8,000 increase, but manufacturing dropped 161,000
jobs. The unemployment rate shot to 8.5% from 8.1%. It is now already well above
the average 8.1% average for 2009 as forecast in the Obama budget presented just
weeks ago. The trend in employment suggests that the projected deficit is thus
already no longer operative... The other components of the release also
reflected weakness. The average workweek fell 0.1 to 33.2 hours. The workweek
tends to lead payroll changes, as employers adjust hours before payrolls. The
manufacturing workweek fell 0.2 to 39.3. This suggests a significant reduction
in industrial production in March. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2%. The
year-over-year change is 3.4%... The data can be considered about as expected,
but are also clearly very weak. The market has been anticipating an improved
economic environment, and payrolls lag demand, so the degree to which this
undermines the recent optimism is uncertain.

 

Source:  Briefing.com

 

Michael Höhne's picture
Michael Höhne
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 16 2008
Posts: 119
Re: Unemployment rate now stands at 8.5%

The seasonally unadjusted unemployment numbers "only" show 196k more than in February. I wonder why that isn't used in the news. Maybe because then there is a need to also use 9.04% as the official unemployment rate. I'm also convinced that the revised numbers for March will be much close to 700k.

April any May will be tough, because the adjustments made in these months are positive, meaning that more unemployed people are in the seasonally adjusted statistic than in the unadjusted statistic. The average adjustment rate for April in the last 10 years was 4.79% and for May it's 5.45%. Even if the unadjusted numbers do not further rise in April and May, the unemployment rate will be 9.4-9.5% in the two upcoming months, unless slightly different adjustments are made, which is very likely.

The adjustment used in March 2009 was 5.28%, which is 1.15% more than the average of the last 10 years and even 2.70% more than used in 2008. It's also worth mentioning that the civilian labor force decreased by 76k in March (unadjusted). It always increased from February to March in the previous 10 years and the average increase was 310k.

 

cat233's picture
cat233
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 20 2008
Posts: 575
Re: Unemployment rate now stands at 8.5%

From Briefing.com

Big Picture

  • Employment conditions have worsened significantly in recent months.  Through
    August 2008, payroll declines were moderate, and not at recessionary levels. 
    The September and October declines were much larger and established a new
    trend.  Employment conditions are not likely to improve for quite a few months,
    particularly as employment picks up only after an increase in overall
    demand.
Category MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV
Establishment Survey          
Nonfarm Payrolls -663K -651K -741K -681K -597K
  Goods-Producing -305K -285K -405K -282K -249K
    Construction -126K -107K -135K -98K -127K
    Manufacturing -161K -169K -262K -180K -121K
  Service-Providing -358K -366K -336K -399K -348K
    Retail Trade -48K -51K -46K -88K -91K
    Financial -43K -44K -56K -33K -45K
    Business -133K -178K -151K -132K -124K
       Temporary help -72K -77K -90K -73K -90K
    Education/Health 8K 22K 39K 36K 63K
    Leisure/Hospitality -40K -28K -36K -40K -51K
    Government -5K 3K 8K -11K 4K
Average Workweek 33.2 33.3 33.3 33.3 33.4
  Factory Workweek 39.3 39.5 39.8 39.9 40.2
Factory Overtime 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.2
Aggregate Hours Index -1.0% -0.6% -0.7% -0.9% -0.9%
Avg Hourly Earnings 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%
Household Survey          
Civilian Unemp. Rate 8.5% 8.1% 7.6% 7.2% 6.8%
Civilian Labor Force -166K 498K -731K -173K -258K
Civilian Employed -865K -351K -1239K -806K -513K
Civilian Unemployed 694K 851K 508K 632K 255K

 

investorzzo's picture
investorzzo
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 7 2008
Posts: 1182
Re: Unemployment rate now stands at 8.5%

Shadowstats.com says were closer to 20 percent unemployment which is at or near depression numbers. And given that some analysts are calling for unemployment not to bottom out till 2nd quarter of 2010.

investorzzo's picture
investorzzo
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 7 2008
Posts: 1182
Jobless America

The unemployment rate is now 8.5%, which is very bad, and is up sharply from 5.1% a year ago. But just check out U6,
the broad measure of underemployement: people who want to get more work
than they’ve got, but can’t find it. A year ago — three months into the
recession — it stood at 9.3%. Today, it’s risen all the way to 16.2% —
an increase of 6.9 percentage points — and no one thinks it’s peaked
yet. There are now 9 million “involuntary part-time workers” in
America, and rising; these people are, as a rule, spending as little as
they possibly can.

It’s true that unemployment is a lagging
indicator, and that if we’re looking for signs of recovery then the
payrolls report is not a great place to start. But there’s nothing here
to give any indication that America’s animal spirits have any reason at
all to turn around. We, as a nation of individuals, increasingly have
neither the ability nor the inclination to borrow money or to spend it
— and there’s nothing the banking system can do about that, whether
it’s recapitalized or not. So I do wonder where those people
forecasting recovery this year think that it’s going to come from.

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/129361-jobless-america

Aaron M's picture
Aaron M
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 22 2008
Posts: 2373
Re: Unemployment rate now stands at 8.5%

I just watched Keith Hall of the Bureau of Labor Statistics say that he saw nothing that could indicate anything other than a deepening recession.

All the representitives could ask was "How can we get people building/lending/spending/consuming again?"

This is either the most lucrative disaster in history, a controlled demolition, or a situation totally out of hand.

Not sure which...

Aaron

investorzzo's picture
investorzzo
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 7 2008
Posts: 1182
Re: Unemployment rate now stands at 8.5%

 2 million jobs lost so far in '09

http://cnnmoney.mobi/money/business/economy/detail/136769/full#p1

Michael Höhne's picture
Michael Höhne
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 16 2008
Posts: 119
Re: Unemployment rate now stands at 8.5%

You can access the raw data at http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab1.htm. It reports the data from 1999 to 2009 and is a good basis for your own calculations.

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