UK recovery?

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eternal sunshine's picture
eternal sunshine
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 24 2008
Posts: 50
UK recovery?

I'm confused. I work with lot's of architects and developers in the UK and almost everyone is calling the bottom of the housing market and reporting an upturn in business, I'm noticing this myself in my own business.

Taylor Wimpey looks on the bright side as it says prices have found a floor

Taylor Wimpey cast a rare ray of sunshine on the embattled housebuilding industry yesterday after the group all but called the bottom of the market.

The group reassured its own investors and the wider market by suggesting that prices had levelled out, cancellation rates were past their worst and that it might even begin to open new sales outlets. The company is also eyeing further land purchases.

business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/article6539173.ece

and

UK house prices rose by 0.9% in June, according to the latest survey from the Nationwide building society.

It said this was the third rise in the past four months, and shrank the annual rate of decline to just 9.3%, from 11.3% in May.

news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8125728.stm

 

while meanwhile...

The UK economy contracted 2.4% in the first quarter of 2009, its biggest quarterly decline in 51 years, according to the latest official data....

Meanwhile, real household disposable income fell by 2.4%, while the savings rate dropped from 4% to 3%

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8125898.stm

the UK economy seems to be in an equally bad shape as the US and yet you can almost sense the housing bubble re-inflating over here.

mainecooncat's picture
mainecooncat
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 7 2008
Posts: 488
Re: UK recovery?

Never confuse a micro-trend for a macro one -- the media's and establishment economists' specialty.

Yeah, in my estimation the UK is as bad off as anyone (country) with regard to the current financial situation -- just read some more bad news this morning for the UK over at lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/BreakingNews.html

Not to mention -- no offense to Brits, I love you guys, especially your music -- that the UK is probably one of the worst places to attempt self-sufficiency from a food and energy standpoint.  

mainecooncat's picture
mainecooncat
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 7 2008
Posts: 488
Re: UK recovery?

I love it when people talk about "the bottom" and "floors" because implicit in these terms is the concept that they are very brief stops on a road destined to rise meteorically once again. But what if bottoms and floors are where we should be -- permanently? What if they are the truest reflection of non-inflated economies?

logBurner's picture
logBurner
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 26 2008
Posts: 58
Re: UK recovery?

Sorry for the gloom but,  . . .

The financial crisis is only one focus worthy of concern for the UK IMO: We are stimulating the economy to the tune of massive debts. If that did not work then God only knows what would have happened. Just like other countries there are now massive growth issues.

If we continue and come out of this crisis then we continue to eat the same meat that has never seen a blade of grass, we continue to burn fuel and energy to cleanse the very water we need to live, . . . . in summary we continue to waste and waste and waste without addressing the underlying crisis about to unfold. I have spoken to lot's and lot's of Joe Publics and they are really not interested in looking at the real problem: Over population combined with the fact that we purchase goods that are built to be thrown away (designed obsolescence is one example). I think David Attenborough (you are from the UK so you should know the guy) sums up best with the group that he has aligned to:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7996230.stm

In a statement issued by the Optimum Population Trust he is quoted as saying: "I've never seen a problem that wouldn't be easier to solve with fewer people, or harder, and ultimately impossible, with more."

Every other approach is basically arguing about the price of oranges IMO.

With this level of stimulus I would be shocked if it did not work (get the economy / consumer behaviour back to 'norm'). What I fear most is that it will work! Apparently some people are working behind the scenes and will pull this together but personally I cannot see this ending in anything other than tears in 10-20 years max.

Grow food and get water source sorted is my only recommendation (not immediate IMO but within years it will be needed) - I'm doing my own experiments here and boy oh boy it makes you realise all the problems - Nature can become your enemy at times ;)

Regards

eternal sunshine's picture
eternal sunshine
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 24 2008
Posts: 50
Re: UK recovery?

mainecooncat

I should clarify I'm incredulous rather than confused about the data I posted. I just can't believe that it's possible for this level of mass delusion.

I'm interested about your view about the UK being poor from a self sufficiency point of view, could you elaborate?

I agree that we are overpopulated, with a neglected agricultural sector, but we do have one of the best offshore wind resources, and tidal energy potential in the world. Our ruling class sucks of course and I despair of us actually using our natural resources wisely.

We also have a relatively good communities here, small towns with infrastructure that might be more resilient. WWII (and post) rationing and growing your own are also relatively recent in the collective consciousness. The transition towns movement here has quite a bit of influence in local government, in my own experience anyway.

I'd say any nation in the developed world is far far away from national self sufficiency in any case.

I think you're right about the music too - we could come up with a great soundtrack for the collapse of civilisation (I think radiohead did it a few years ago)

BTW I couldn't pick out the article your referred to from the link you posted

eternal sunshine's picture
eternal sunshine
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 24 2008
Posts: 50
Re: UK recovery?

logBurner

With a name like that you are obviously looking at energy as well as food and water.

Gloom is fairly unavoidable at present, and I'm with you that action of any kind is the best way of dealing with it without descending into depression.

I totally agree that consumerism has only taken a minor dent from all the turmoil of the last 18 months. As a society judged on the CM's six stages of awareness we are still pretty firmly stuck on the denial part, we've got all those lovely 'anger' and 'depression' bits to overcome still (on a national level). I even saw some posts on this site today from some climate change deniers reacting to Cap and Trade

I have to say that I expect a hard landing and I'm preparing for that like you are, without having at the moment the desire to run for the hills (although it may come). I'm just growing, or learning how to grow to be accurate, my own food, keeping bees, I started a low carbon/renewables business, stuff like that.

The economic stuff just baffles me really, and this site is a continual education for me, I heard Richard Douthwaite speaking in 2003 at a Peak Oil conference and he was asked to describe how he imagined life after the peak. He believed that Peak Oil would be felt as a series of recessions, over a period of 10-15 years with each recovery becoming less and less vigourous and therefore a constantly declining standard of living etc. so I watch the economy with interest.

On my original post, I had thought that re-inflating a bubble was without precedent, does anyone believe that the UK and the rest of the world can pull this off? (serious question)

I respect David Attenborough, as a national treasure, he is one of the few people that could discuss population control without being vilified. I heard him on the radio the other day talking about how the for the first time a species that he has filmed has become extinct in the wild- The Panamanian Golden frog. Allegedly killed by global trade spreading the chytrid fungus.

plato1965's picture
plato1965
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 18 2009
Posts: 615
Re: UK recovery?

  Fools paradise..

 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6339642/Ex-FSA-chief-Sir-Howard-Davies-sees-dramatic-risks-for-Britain.html

 

 Reform ? Aren't things bad enough already.. ?

 http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100013799/g20-stimulus-spending-if-all-you-have-is-a-hammer-everything-looks-like-a-nail/

 

 re: reinflating the bubble..  I think maybe it is.. a synchronised devaluing of all currencies (relative to gold / oil / wheat) 

you get *apparent* stability in nominal terms.. which is probably enough to prevent mayhem... house prices appear stable,

mortgages don't default..

 Easiest way might be a rapid rise in the price of oil...

 Bernanke's thesis was that inflation is always possible, but maybe the oil well is a better tool than the printing press  ?

 

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