train wreck list

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On Our Own's picture
On Our Own
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train wreck list

OK>  We all know that the financial system is still very wobbly.  A train wreck waiting to happen?

We know that commercial real estate is heading for a cliff.

We know that the real estate market in general is still falling off the rails.

We know European countries are staggering and barely managing to hold each other up.

 

So, what other train wrecks are unfolding or immanent?  How many systemic collapses does it take to throw the whole thing into the wind?  And how long can they prop this zombie global economy up??  What other systems are failing?

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Re: train wreck list
On Our Own wrote:

OK>  We all know that the financial system is still very wobbly.  A train wreck waiting to happen?

We know that commercial real estate is heading for a cliff.

We know that the real estate market in general is still falling off the rails.

We know European countries are staggering and barely managing to hold each other up.

 

So, what other train wrecks are unfolding or immanent?  How many systemic collapses does it take to throw the whole thing into the wind?  And how long can they prop this zombie global economy up??  What other systems are failing?

CRE 3.5 trillion - tanking now. RE 1.5 trillion in alt-a's and option arms, tanking this spring summer and fall. Almost every nation is insolvent. States, which are like Greece in the sense they can't print money are heading south, CA and 2 other states make Greece look good.

We can't sell bonds to cover debt. We (as in Bernake) counterfeit what they can't off on investors and then they lie about who is buying it -"Other Households", yeah right, the other households who aren't on food stamps and unemployment. Sure Ben.

Last depression England went and pulled the entire world under. Don't have a clue who or how, or even when - but I do know it WILL happen.

I'm sure they will steal 401ks and IRAs - estimates from 2-5 trillion there. That will "buy" them some time maybe.

 

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Re: train wreck list

I'll add just one -- it doesn't affect me (now that I'm at peace w/the idea I'll never see a dime from Social Security) but it will dump millions into economic misery (and pretty much nobody ever talks about it):

Unfunded/underfunded private & public pension liabilities.

Viva -- Sager

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Re: train wreck list

Seems like in history economic hardship has coincided with geopolitical hurdles.  Aside from economic, you have some major geopolitical challenges that seem to be gaining momentum.

Iran developing nuclear weapons and how the US and Israel will react

Increasingly strained relations between China and the US

The continued threat of Al Qaeda and the Taliban to the US and Europe

North Korea developing nuclear weapons and how the US and South Korea will react

Venezuela taking a hostile stance toward the US and echoing the cries of Iran

We'll see what happens next week, but strained ties between India and Pakistan as well as China and Pakistan

I was telling someone a while back, that I think we will look back on these times years from now and say World War 3 began after a series of conflicts as a fallout from at least 9/11.  Back in 2004 Bin Laden said that his intent was to cripple the US economically by drawing u into a war we couldn't fund.  If you get a chance I highly suggest you read the link to see how badly we are really losing the war.  May get flamed for this, but Bin Laden is not an idiot.  Which makes me wonder who he is really in bed with since our politicians seem to be doing exactly what he intended them to do with 9/11.

Damn, kinda digressed from the topic.  But yeah, aside from the current economic conditions, I personally think the geopolitical threats are more concerning.  Nothing seems worse than being so broke we can't buy up the raw materials to convert to weapons and defend ourselves when the scavengers come looking to pick the meat off of what's left of the American taxpayer and our once prosperous nation.

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Re: train wreck list

Now add in the environmental stuff, which will be enormous and mostly irreversable. For instance, the death of algae critical to the worlds food cycle because of the acidification of the oceans. Recent studies have said it will take ten thousand years to reverse that acidification.

Depletion of the soils, genetic food modification...factory farming.  Our complete lack of self control when it comes to the use of natural resources. Overpopulation alone is enough to make me run screaming, even without mentioning or considering fuel issues.

 

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Re: train wreck list

OK I knew or now understand most of this,  what I am looking for is the immediate threats.  I see threats everywhere,  but the most dangerous to me is the ignorance and apathy.  But, I digress.

I still personally suspect we will not go down in a glorious bang of war, internally or externally.  I fear it will be an ongoing whimper of a slide into impoverished irrelevancy.   The population curves are not necessarily behaving as expected as some groups are ramping down their growth.  It is appalling to even think that someone like Bin Laden could pull off such a stunt,  but there does appear to have been a major confluence of stupidity and short-sightedness at work.   

How long can they prop this puppy up?   Anyone see the WSJ article last week talking about how the big wigs are prepping??  I'll provide the link soon.

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Re: train wreck list

Bond market. 

Last 30 year Treasury Auction had a bid to cover of around 2.5. We're getting precariously close to a failed bond auction. 

When that happens, you'll hear...Greece? Where's Greece? 

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Re: train wreck list
SagerXX wrote:

Unfunded/underfunded private & public pension liabilities.

This is also my pick.  I fully anticipate the legislative branch allowing States to claim something along the lines of Chapter 11 bankruptcy, allowing them to shed collective bargaining obligations.

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Re: train wreck list
Davos wrote:

I'm sure they will steal 401ks and IRAs - estimates from 2-5 trillion there. That will "buy" them some time maybe.

Were the markets to collapse then I am certain that the US government will confiscate all 401K's and IRA's under the guise of "Protecting America's Retirement Act of 2010". 

So warm and fuzzy sounding, isn't it? "We're only doing this to help you". 

I'm betting that they'll roll all pensions, 401Ks, and IRA's into "safe" *cough* Treasury Bills, the proceeds of which will be promptly spent, likely through additional bailouts, and replaced with intragovernmental bonds, that is, IOUs.

The real kick in the privates will be that after stealing our savings, we'll have to pay the private banks interest on those T-bills and bonds. 

And the NFL/NHL/NBA crowd, the Oprah crowd, and the sitcom crowd will love them for it. 

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Re: train wreck list

So far I count 6 terrorists on this page. 

Dissent is not allowed. 

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Re: train wreck list

The coming train wreck that scares me the most is how they will handle the people.  I think we will see the population of the world purposely reduced via war and/or man-made diseases.    

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Re: train wreck list

So is today's domestic terrorist act along with his letter/rallying cry a drop in the bucket or the camel's famous straw??

I was told several times this week that I am paranoid and delusional and didn't understand the ingenuity of the American spirit........

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Re: train wreck list
DrKrbyLuv wrote:

The coming train wreck that scares me the most is how they will handle the people.  I think we will see the population of the world purposely reduced via war and/or man-made diseases.    

You almost have to.  Resources to sustain life are finite and in worst case decreasing because of how we treat our environment.  World population growth can go on forever as the graph shows in the link (why is the UN planning on a decline I have no clue...nuclear holocaust perhaps).  However there is only so much land to grow food on, so much oil to build cities with, so much clean water to go around, etc.

The elite have to realize this and probably have planned for this.  If you are elite you don't want the masses growing too restless and discontent and start to threaten your security or your current position in the world.  Plus you need  your share of the resources that keep your lifestyle operating at it's current level and be able to secure those resources for your children and their children.  It only seems logical that we are due for some human housecleaning in the coming years. 

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Re: train wreck list

Resources to sustain life are finite

That's not been my experience in life.

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Re: train wreck list

One thing that confuses me is the earnings of some of the biggest companies. IBM, COKE, ORACLE, HP, VERIZON. These companies revenue has actually increased since 2007. Ive noticed that the earnings report are pretty good for most companies. Except for housing, autos and financials which are cooked, these bread and butter companies are strong.

IMB

Q3 2007 24 billion revenue

Q4 2007 28 billion revenue

Q3 2009 23.5 billion rev

Q4 2009 27.2 billion rev

IMB is doing just fine so far. They had a few bad quarters but there back to some strong rev numbers.

 

Coke

Q2 2007 6.1 billion in rev

Q3 2007 7.7 billion in rev

Q3 2009 8 billion in rev

Q4 2009 7.5 billion in rev

Apparently coke is doing ok also

Oracle

Q3 2007 4.4 billion in rev

Q4 2007 5.8 billion in rev

Q3 2009 5 billion in rev

Q4 2009 5.8 billion in rev

So oracle is also doing pretty good

Hewlett Packard

Q3 2007 25 billion in rev

Q4 2007 28 billion in rev

Q3 2009 30bill in rev

Q4 2009 27.5 bill in rev

HP is holding up alright as well.

VERIZON

Q3 2007 23 BILLION

Q4 2007 23 BILLION

q3 2009 27 billion

Q4 2009 27 billion

Verizon is doing much better than it was in Q3, Q4 of 2007. So what gives?

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Re: train wreck list
Thomas Hedin wrote:

Resources to sustain life are finite

That's not been my experience in life.

Seriously Thomas?  Do you care to elaborate?

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Re: train wreck list

Seriously Thomas?  Do you care to elaborate?

It's obvious that the planet is one big giant recycling machine and it's impossible to run out of resources because as they are used they end up in the big picture just getting put to use somewhere else in the ecosystem.

Correct me if I'm wrong here but isn't all that is needed to sustain life is food, water, and shelter?

We can always grow more food.  You may be able to change it's form(water, ice, vapor), or seperate it into water and hydrogen but in time they'll combine back together to form water again.

How can you run out of food when you can always grow more of it?  We haven't even began to touch the potential for how much food we could grow, and heck, we probably throw away so much food in America we could end world hunger with just what gets thrown in the trash.

We can't run out of water.  It may change forms (water, ice, vapor) but it will just return to the oceans, where it will evaporate and return to land in the form of vapor then condense....I'm sure you get the point.

As far as shelter goes, ok, we chop down some trees, process them, and build homes.  As long as the new trees grow back faster than the homes get destroyed we have an overall growth in wealth and that is a sustainable system.  I'm from the north, and it's obvious here there is more trees than we could ever know what to do with.

 

How can we use up all the food on the planet when we can always grow more of it?

How can we destroy all the water on the planet?

Can anyone learn to trust their what they see with their own eyes or have we lost the ability to think for ourselves? (not directed at goes211)

Gee whiz.  Has anyone ever stopped for one minute to think that all of this stuff being put out by the elite might just be a slick sales way for people to buy more and more and more (increase profits) by creating a false panic or by purposely shutting down the money supply to eliminate competition and blame it on a lack of resources.

If you're conserned about the rate at which are using available resources then you need look no further than how our monetary system works because by design they want you to work harder and harder all the time and consume more and more.

"From the outset, there was recognition that these original purposes were in fact intergral parts of a broader objective, namely, to help counteract inflationary and deflationary movements, and to share in creating conditions favorable to sustained high employement, stable values, growth of the country, and a rising level of consumption." [empasis added] Federal Reserve Purposes and Functions third edition Page 1

 

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Re: train wreck list

We can always grow more food.  You may be able to change it's form(water, ice, vapor), or seperate it into water and hydrogen but in time they'll combine back together to form water again.

How can you run out of food when you can always grow more of it?  We haven't even began to touch the potential for how much food we could grow, and heck, we probably throw away so much food in America we could end world hunger with just what gets thrown in the trash.

We can't run out of water.  It may change forms (water, ice, vapor) but it will just return to the oceans, where it will evaporate and return to land in the form of vapor then condense....I'm sure you get the point.

As far as shelter goes, ok, we chop down some trees, process them, and build homes.  As long as the new trees grow back faster than the homes get destroyed we have an overall growth in wealth and that is a sustainable system.  I'm from the north, and it's obvious here there is more trees than we could ever know what to do with.

 

Are you familiar with Thomas Malthus??  Malthus claimed that we would reach a  point beyond which the planet could not produce enough food to feed the growing population.  Clearly,  he was wrong.  The ONLY argument that makes sense to argue against the finite resources problem is the ingenuity of mankind to invent new systems to replace less efficient old ones.  I am just not convinced that people are motivated enough to create them before there are huge social problems.

The planet cannot run out of water,  but we certainly can.  For one thing there are far too many people who expect to live in arid areas, and grow food there, that have an inadequate supply of water.  This is a genuine problem for US,  not so much for all humanity in all of time,  but for us right here and now.  Yes, it is possible that if the only thing humans needed was food, water, and shelter, we could adapt.  But, are you willing to do that right now?  The level of social upheaval necessary to get to the point where people are simply surviving on food, water and shelter is horrifying.  

That water in the ocean would need to be desalinated and shipped using fuel and resources we would not have.  The only reason Malthus was wrong was that machinery and improved farming created more food in a smaller space.  If we are left with no fuel and little available water,  that system would return to what it looked like in Malthus' time.  You have trees.  Great.  Can you process them?  Can you ship them?  It is like being on a desert island.  You have water everywhere but you cannot drink it.  There may be trees everywhere but the shelter they can build is rudimentary at best.  There may be food everywhere but it may be very hard to attain and process.

I am used to not just food, but plenty.  I am used to not just some water,  but enough to bathe, cook and water my crops.  What happens when all of Nevada migrates to california for water?  What happens when Texas invades the southern states for food?

The planet will survive.  Humanity, like cockroaches, will survive.   I certainly don't want to go on the ride to get there from here.

 

V's picture
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Re: train wreck list

Thomas 

I suggest you go back and watch the CC.

I suggest you pay particular attention to Fenway Park.

You may have plenty of water but the Yangtze RiveR does not make it to the ocean 

for well over half the year. The Colorado no longer consistently makes it to the Gulf of 

California. Over 1 billion people do not have enough to eat. Over 2 billion do not have adequate water and sanitation.

 It is all well and good to project our own subjective experience on the macrocosm

unfortunately this is a poor way to plan for a sustainable future.

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Re: train wreck list
DrKrbyLuv wrote:

The coming train wreck that scares me the most is how they will handle the people.  I think we will see the population of the world purposely reduced via war and/or man-made diseases.    

Of course that's been the plan all along,  Once the US can't fund 3rd wold vaccinations, aids treatment and food. nobody else will pick up that ball and we will see massive die offs.  We will probably see real starvation here in the US also as we sell our food to foreign nations to pay the central banks.  (kind of like when Stalin starved millions of Russians all the while selling most of the grain production to Europe so the central banks would fund his agenda.-- I could see a corrupt socialist US govt doing the same)

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