total national credit score data mining Imagine the possibilities

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radiance's picture
radiance
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total national credit score data mining Imagine the possibilities

Imagine the wealth of information available to the rating agencies to monitor the financial health of unlimited demographic groups! Does anyone know if anyone can gain access to such a goldmine? Not individuals data but groups. It would blow away many of the investigative tools available for inquiry to the financial health of the nation as a whole and her many subgroups. Someone is using it. What do they see.

Ron

lundsta's picture
lundsta
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Re: total national credit score data mining Imagine the ...

Banks have access to this technology. They are using it right now in Loss prevention to determine what groups of individuals are delinquent. It determines what type of loan modification a borrower may qualify for if they need assistance. The program allows an agent to use neighborhood foreclosure rates (on city, county and state level), employer financial data, family financial history and social class. There are many other ways to sort the groups depending on the info needed, but for the purpose of loan modification we are not using any other criteria. 

What sort of information where you wanting to see? 

 

 

 

radiance's picture
radiance
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Re: total national credit score data mining Imagine the ...

Various averages mean, medium, mode of of the national score by date. Daily averages as a ratio the DOW would be another.Unemployment numbers in the light of various FICA levels would maybe give leading indicators. Seems the data could be used in a way to provide truth of economic conditions since Gov data is so corrupted. I could think of thousands of ways to crunch the data.I suppose I am little weird in what would capture my interest. I love to learn and tinker. I developed a way to noninvasive monitor homeostasis of neonates. I just have an inquisitive bent toward investigation.

I would think one could see in the data events that are unfolding on a more human level since FICA reflects human suffering and or prosperity. One should see over months whether interventions on a macro level are reaching to the micro level of classes of people. One could then target with interventions and observe outcomes against a control group. Sort of like a double blind study in medicine but assessing human well-being. Assessing FICA change up or down of x group would indicate who is getting any benefit from lending  interventions.

 Thank you for your response. You must use some of the data in lending.

Ron

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lundsta
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Re: total national credit score data mining Imagine the ...

I am sure they do use the same type of program for lending. However, the information I track is trends in Loss Prevention. One that may interest you is the decrease successful loan modifications. They would like you to believe that they are increasing. Sure demand is increasing, but only about 5% can qualify for a modification. I do not have proof for this theory but I believe banks feel the gov will buy their bad assets sooner or later. This means they really don't want people to get modifications. Another indicator I am monitoring is the Delinquency rates vs social classes and FICO scores. I doubt the data would be suprising for anyone. I get to see a snapshoots of what could be down the road.   Are there specifics you were curious about?  I would think the government would have to have access to this information as well. Unless they are choosing to ignore it. The numbers I have are only good for the all the borrowers in one institution. Banks can compile their data to do larger trend analysis, but then the more hands that touch the information.....corrupt it.     

radiance's picture
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Re: total national credit score data mining Imagine the ...

Were you able to see changes coming with your data? IF so how did they compare to other indicators? Can you go back months/years and re-sift the data? In 2003 or at any point did any class sound an alarm something was very wrong compared to the long term historical mean? Do banks corrupt the data set or select for desired outcomes or both? Do you have the authority to conduct your own investigations? That was  a bunch of questions I don't expect you to have to answer all these. I get a little obsessive when the wheel start turning.

Thanks I sure appreciate your time!

Ron

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lundsta
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Re: total national credit score data mining Imagine the ...

What I enjoy most about my job is that numbers don't lie. They are compiled without people to adjust them. So I get to see these trends first. I can say as they get handed from supervisor to management to executive everything gets altered. They get paid based on certain numbers so they make sure that happens.

Question 1:

I am able to see changes coming. It is a program so you can ask for any amount of data. One would have to interpret the information. One area that always has concern me is what indicators they used to give a loan. Gross Income. The reason this does not make sense is with increasing medical premiums and taxes people were given to much. I cannot speak for all banks, but this one 20 years ago used net income. Why the change? It has caused huge issues that will only grow later. Another trend 1st mort applications were based on net income......Home Equity loans were based on gross income. 

Question 2

You can pull any type of data as far back as when the company started. I have over 100 years of data to look at trends.

 

Question 3

There were many alarms not just one. Sharp increases in delinquency rates and unemployment claims for families making 50k and less (gross income) and household with gross income 100k +. Since the upper class is only 5% of the population it took a few years to finally catch up to the middle class. 

Question 4

I do have the ability to do my own investigration, but I am not able to disclose any specific information.  

 

radiance's picture
radiance
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Re: total national credit score data mining Imagine the ...

Wow I would love to have that kind of access. I am very tired at the moment and need some sleep. I Need to wash this around and see what evolves.

Thanks

Ron

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lundsta
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Re: total national credit score data mining Imagine the ...

It is alot of info. It also is something I can't control which makes it more difficult for me. Get some sleep and take care!

 

Happy Thanksgiving! 

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Re: total national credit score data mining Imagine the ...

I did want to add on concern I am still watching. All the people that are doing foreclosures, short sales or walking away from debt are not getting the full picture.

Most people have 2 or more mortgages on these properties. The options above usually indicates that only the 1st lien will be wiped clean. The other liens turn into unsecured debt and haunt the homeowner forever. The government also sees this lien as income and will tax you. The first wave of these accounts are coming the the surface. Over the next 2-3 years the beast will show it fangs.

Here is an example:

1st mort 100k

2nd mort 50k

The borrower cannot afford the home and the bank will not do a modification. The borrower does a short sale for 95k. The 1st mort will take the entire amount and charge off the 5k. The 2nd lien is turned into a unsecured line of credit after the sale (Usually with interest above 9%). So the borrower still owes 50k. Fast forward 3 months for 2008 taxes and this borrower has to report 50k as income for 2008.

People need to wake up and see that the gov is just as guilty as the banks.

Another concern is since the bailout passed the guidelines for modifications are tighter. If your income to debt ratio is 65% or higher you don't make enough and if it is lower than 50% they believe you can afford the payments. This is even more proof for some reason the banks don't want to do modifications. Maybe you can shed some light and tell me why? I am at a loss on this one.

I am sorry if this is long.

 

 

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Re: total national credit score data mining Imagine the ...

This was not to long at all.

But your question; why are the banks.... Really messed me up. I have been unable to abandon the question since you posed it. When something like this happens weeks turn to months of obsessive pursuit. This has prompted a paradigm shift in my mind an epiphany, a revelation of grand proportion. I sense this will be one of those illuminating moments that one has at best only handful of. The question sparked something in me that has revealed a limiting pattern in my contemplations and examinations of the unfolding events. I seem of late to be chasing after what is happening and neglecting to probe why. 

Thanks

Ron

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lundsta
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Re: total national credit score data mining Imagine the ...

I guess asking why will not get me anywhere. I am constantly asking questions about things I can't change. If you do have any ideas to the question please let me know. Different perspectives always help.

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Re: total national credit score data mining Imagine the ...

I am working on it. However why is so much more challenging than what. But one thing is for sure somewhere the why is related to self interest of someone or group. No matter how much humanist want to believe that man is basically good it is a lie standing against history. The Utopian lie is that a special educated elite group "the working group of enlightened ones" will act in a way that is in the best interest of those not in the group. Lie Lie Lie!!! Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

lundsta's picture
lundsta
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Re: total national credit score data mining Imagine the ...

Thank you for your response. What other questions are you working out?

radiance's picture
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Re: total national credit score data mining Imagine the ...

I am not sure at the moment what the insightful question is. But asking the right question leads to helpful answers. Why is still hounding me night and day. I am having dreams of this stuff, which is a good sign.  I sense being on the edge of a helpful insight that will hopefully answer questions and impact problems we are facing.

Ron

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Re: total national credit score data mining Imagine the ...

you guys should get a room!

Does any of this tell us how to protect ourselves or our families, or is it just another indicator saying the worst is yet to come? 

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Re: total national credit score data mining Imagine the ...

Lundsta and Radiance,

I just read your interchange.

I found it extremely interesting and valuable. I'm glad you have this 'room' to pursue these questions and interests.

[Thanks, Chris!]

Lundsta,

You said: " If your income to debt ratio is 65% or higher you don't make enough and if it is lower than 50% they believe you can afford the payments."

Are the applicants in that 15% range of 'just right' debt/income group  the same people you referred to as "only about 5% can qualify for a modification."?

What percentage do you suppose actually get a modification?

Are your chances of getting 'modified' better if there is no second mortgage.

How would an FHA mortgage fare compare to a Fanny or Freddy?

Inquiring minds want to know.

TIA, bobb

lundsta's picture
lundsta
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Re: total national credit score data mining Imagine the ...

I can only answer your first question based on the larger banking institutions.

 

5% could qualify for a modification. I am finding that only 2.5% actually follow through the entire process and get the modification. Next is the tricky part. The modifications we started in the beginning of 2008 are now back in the delinquency state. (The 2.5% are now needing help once again) Once a bank does a mod they will not do another one for at least 1 year. A maximum of 5 the entire length of the loan. A sneaky way for banks to postpone losses.

Opportunities for modifications do not change with the amount of liens on the property.  

I would have to get back to you about the FHA mortgage. They tend to keep that information secret.  

I am still trying to find the best way to resolve the crisis.

I think moving all trouble homeowners into a fixed interest rate loan is key. The gov was proposing new mortgage loans at 4.5% so I will use that number.

Then make the loans unsecured. The banks cannot afford the mass foreclosures anyways. This would also prevent the gov from writing off banks bad debts. The plan allows people to stay in their homes. 

The unsecured debt could then be totaled together with other outstanding debt. Equally one payment for all debt.

So now the picture would look like this:

100k (1st mort)

50k (2nd mort)

25k (credit card debt)

175k total debt @ 4.5% interest =886.0 per month

I know some people would loose out here, but it would be shared between bankers, gov and homeowners. No plan is perfect. I do not agree with wiping out all debt. Debt forgiveness is unfair to the people that pay on time and manage their money. Bailouts are also not acceptable. If assistance was the best option it is best to spread it around. The trickle down effect only works for non-selfish creatures. Last I checked this was not the human race. 

The only other option is a "do-over". Let things burn out and then rebuild.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

radiance's picture
radiance
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Re: total national credit score data mining Imagine the ...

Your plan is the best I have heard yet! It solves so many problems. Why the gov and fed have refused to implement real change and what their real plan is still needs considered. What ever their real plan is thus far with all the signs on the road it looks bad, real bad. I am still struggling to perceive their thinking by their actions. Honest people have a hard time seeing sinister plots and they recoil at the idea of a sinister plot. Hence why the conspiracy theorists are so easily cast aside. Chris's point about money creation being counterintuitive is an example of honest people not perceiving evil.

Ron

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lundsta
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Re: total national credit score data mining Imagine the ...

To bad they won't use any of our ideas. I guess they would never listen to a 23 year old woman anyways. Haha. Thanks for your response.

 Bob,

This is just my perspective, but I feel it is important to research and understand all aspects of these issues. I cannot protect my family without all of this information. I know what my children will be facing in the next few years. I cannot teach them, protect them or most of all encourage them without all of this insight. This forum topic provided good information about what is to come so any person can use that info to protect loved ones.  

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bobb dobbs
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Re: total national credit score data mining Imagine the ...

Lundsta,

Thanks for your answers. I understand that some parts of what you are saying are your opinions. Far better for you to share them than to let them go unheard. Even if many iignore or devalue them because of your age, gender or whatever.

You may have the info someone badly needs to solve their individual puzzle. Nothing is for everyone. No use trying to please all. It is reported that Buddah, on his deathbed, told his students: "Doubt everything and find your own light."

Now for more questions.

When a bank does a mod does the new loan eliminate the option of relinquishing the asset to discharge the debt? I've read that many existing loans have that option and and it is called a non-recourse loan. Is that true?

What info about FHA mortgages is secret and why?  (Ha! I know...it's a secret.)

Thnks for your time and expertise.

bobb

lundsta's picture
lundsta
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Re: total national credit score data mining Imagine the ...

Question 1.

 

In a modification the loan terms and contract stays the same. The only thing that changes is the payment (via interest rate or monthly payment decreases) Those loans do exist but a borrower would not start out with a 30 year fixed and then be changed to a non-recourse loan. Also Non-recourse loans are typically found in commercial real estate deals.

" A non-recourse debt of $30 billion was issued to JPMorgan Chase by the Federal Reserve in order to purchase Bear Stearns
on March 16, 2008. The non-recourse loan was issued with Bear Stearns
less liquid assets as collateral, meaning that the Federal Reserve will
absorb the loss should the value of those assets be below their
collateralized value." (Wikipedia 3)

Wikipedia ~ Nonrecourse debt  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonrecourse_debt 

Question 2

FHA loans are being treated as investor owned and modifications are not being granted. This may change. The bottom line is no one wants to lose money.  

 

I hope this helps. My previous commet was to "Rlee" also known as Bob.  I just did not want you to think I was ranting for no good reason. 

 

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bobb dobbs
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Re: total national credit score data mining Imagine the ...

lundsta @ #20

Thanks for the explanations and link.

"The bottom line is no one wants to lose money." No blame there. That's why I'm asking all these questions. I'll ask more as they occur to me.

You said "My previous commet was to "Rlee" also known as Bob." I knew you weren't talking to me. It was clear.

bobb

 

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