Thoughts of an outsider

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Spray's picture
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Thoughts of an outsider

I just saw/heard the crash course and I must say it was an amazing eye-opener. However, it's clear that it is not a neutral presentation, and after reading this forum for a couple of hours i can't help but to get a certain feeling of déjà vu (Y2K anyone?). Whereas I don't think the data presented is false, it is likely to be chosen carefully and as such might not give a good representation of reality. What i would want is to hear the arguments of the opposite side (ones who believe some other energy source will take over, that this is all blown out of proportions etc). Only then could I make an informed decision. Could someone be kind enough to present these arguments and/or link me there?

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Re: Thoughts of an outsider

Chris describes his Q&A with Parliament on Two Beers With Steve Podcast. Some of your Questions might be answered there as Members of Parliament are not easy joiners to a different viewpoint.

http://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/two-beers-with-steve/id315666764

Titled " A World Worth Inheriting" 3/23/10

 

FWIW, I have presented the CC to more than a dozen men and women who have strong backgrounds in Economics and Energy (both oil and gas) who took offense at Dr. Martinson's assertions. It was my desire to have them debunk the CC. Any part of it.

The most solid argument I got was that graphs of all kinds can be manipulated with the same data to represent whatever the presenter wants. Both of the scientists that presented that argument have tried to show how Dr. Martinson did just that. Neither could and one just joined me in a large, long-term storage buy of grain.

The rest could not present any argument better than " humanity has alway overcome" or "technology is there to fix this"

When asked about scaling up the technology in time to prevent disruptions, not believed it could be done in less than a decade.

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Re: Thoughts of an outsider
Spray wrote:

I just saw/heard the crash course and I must say it was an amazing eye-opener. However, it's clear that it is not a neutral presentation, and after reading this forum for a couple of hours i can't help but to get a certain feeling of déjà vu (Y2K anyone?). Whereas I don't think the data presented is false, it is likely to be chosen carefully and as such might not give a good representation of reality. What i would want is to hear the arguments of the opposite side (ones who believe some other energy source will take over, that this is all blown out of proportions etc). Only then could I make an informed decision. Could someone be kind enough to present these arguments and/or link me there?

I did the y2k preparations. Wood stove, generator, few weeks of food. Nothing happened. A while later we were hit with a hurricane. Power was out for a week. Neighbors bought food and fish tanks over and then drove to their relatives and griped about it.

I myself think PO will get kicked down the road a bit given the high possibility that we will decrease from 86 million +/- barrels a day of global consumption if there is further demand destruction (read:economic hell).

I'm optimistic about projects like Simmons created. Now that he died I'm a little less optimistic. 

I'd be a lot more optimistic if they had created a Manhattan Project for this. Right now I think our biggest threat is an economic Katrina. PO will follow. You might want to watch this. 

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Re: Thoughts of an outsider

Hi Spray!

Welcome to CM!

What i would want is to hear the arguments of the opposite side (ones who believe some other energy source will take over, that this is all blown out of proportions etc). Only then could I make an informed decision. Could someone be kind enough to present these arguments and/or link me there?

Thats what we are all about here. I think you'll find plenty of skepticism and questioning here. There are not very many lemmings on this site only people who want to know what is really going on.

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Re: Thoughts of an outsider

Tycer: I listened to the podcast, and while Chris seems like someone who takes the data very seriously and tries to keep his feelings out of his work, he also said that the point of the CC was to affect people (that is, not to present the truth), something that makes me suspect his data isn't representative.

If I understand the part about the scientists correctly both tried to show how he manipulated his data, but none of them could find any sort of manipulation in there. That would naturally decrease the probability of manipulated data a lot.

Davos: If I understand the video correctly all it says is that oil will get more expensive due to PO and increased demand, which seems quite rudimentary. Gasoline cost is already over 7 $ / gallon where I live and the price shows no sign of decreasing or even stopping.

Having said that I can't help but wondering how this will affect the rest of the world. The effect of PO will probably be higher prices across the globe, which could (among other things) create a more local work market, but what would happen if US economy collapses? Also, what about the difference between defaulting and hyperinflation?

Johnny: Thanks! There also seem to be a lot of people who have all sorts of questions about farm life, self defence and the best place to hide ones gold =).

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Re: Thoughts of an outsider

Glad to have you here Spray.

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Re: Thoughts of an outsider
Spray wrote:

I just saw/heard the crash course and I must say it was an amazing eye-opener. However, it's clear that it is not a neutral presentation, and after reading this forum for a couple of hours i can't help but to get a certain feeling of déjà vu (Y2K anyone?). Whereas I don't think the data presented is false, it is likely to be chosen carefully and as such might not give a good representation of reality. What i would want is to hear the arguments of the opposite side (ones who believe some other energy source will take over, that this is all blown out of proportions etc). Only then could I make an informed decision. Could someone be kind enough to present these arguments and/or link me there?

Let's start out with the opposite assumption.  Let's assume that everything Chris says is false.  Would getting out of debt, scaling down one's lifestyle, being prepared for a disaster of any sort, building community relationships, becoming more independent in terms of various resources (water, food, energy, etc.), becoming more physically secure with regards to protecting yourself from potential criminal activity, etc. be to your benefit or your detriment?

The future is uncertain.  Being prepared for uncertainty, to me, is prudent and wise.

Y2K had me minimally concerned except for computer precautions.  The developing situation described by Chris has me much more concerned and so I've prepared accordingly.  Look for the preponderance of evidence.  What does it tell you?  What it tells me is that he knows what he is talking about and I'd be wise to heed the advice that he has freely and generously offered here.  I've looked for compelling evidence against his arguments.  Other than the remote possibility of an incredible technological breakthrough in energy and transportation (which even then, will take years to implement), I've found no such evidence.

If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, waddles like a duck, etc., chances are ... it's a duck.

 

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Re: Thoughts of an outsider
Spray wrote:

Davos: If I understand the video correctly all it says is that oil will get more expensive due to PO and increased demand, which seems quite rudimentary. Gasoline cost is already over 7 $ / gallon where I live and the price shows no sign of decreasing or even stopping.

Having said that I can't help but wondering how this will affect the rest of the world. The effect of PO will probably be higher prices across the globe, which could (among other things) create a more local work market, but what would happen if US economy collapses? Also, what about the difference between defaulting and hyperinflation?


I think you might want to find and watch the entire 1-2 hour "A Crude Awakening" documentary. It's on NetFlix, it was kicking around the web. It is NOT all that the movie says (high prices). Even if they replace energy with some new quickly implemented technology only 22 gallons out of a 42 gallon drum is for gas. Sadly oil is in everything. Farming especially. And we have a hungry world with about 9 billion mouths to feed. If it is a sharp cliff it'll mean that farming and a lot else will have to change also. Bottom line: Oil is an integral part of everything & there is no Manhattan project to find new energy or to determine how the last oil should be used.

I expect a more local economy. 

What if the US economy collapses? Same stuff we'd see just as if y2k happened or a hurricane hit and I expect even less oil demand.

Difference between default and hyperinflation? I don't see them defaulting. They could. I see either an outright re-denomination (I.E. Bring us 10,000 old dollars and here is a new dollar) OR they will continue to debase our dollar making the old debt easy to pay with lots more new dollars, they have only 5% more to go, they've done 95% in 84 years, took Rome 300 years to do that. There are some on this site that feel that deflation and or stagflation will happen, I'm certainly not in that camp but they have super points to read and listen to.

I've yet to catch CM with a bad fact or bad data. The site welcomes skeptics in the sense everyone I've met here is extremely skeptical about everything. Basically everyone I have met on the site is a self thinker not some "Boobeling" who let's Cramer and the rest of CNBS do their thinking. What I found is that CM has a lot of grey matter but he has common sense and can simplify and see what something really is. Good luck.  

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Re: Thoughts of an outsider

Spray.

Why don't you just do your own research? If you doubt any thing you see or read here find a contrarian point of view. I am quite sure the DOE could supply you with all the data you need. Or perhaps BP.

I would certainly suggest you read some of if not all of the books in the Essential Books and Articles sections of this site. You see though Chris has done a very good job of putting the information in one very nice neat package he is relatively late to the game. I first started reading about PO in the 60's. There are many people out in the world speaking to many of these issues and have been for quite sometime.

If you think there is a silver bullet out there that will take the place of fossil fuels go find it and bring it back here , we would all like to know about it. You obviously have access to the most powerful research tool ever devised-the internet- we would all like to see what you could find that would make growing a garden, buying guns, buying gold getting out of debt, etc., etc., etc. obsolete. It takes a lot of time, energy and money to prepare for what is in the opinions of many here a high probability scenario. I for one would certainly be relieved to return to the days of Leave it to Beaver.

V

PS It is fairly obvious you do not live in the US. i would also assume that life has not changed very much for you over the last few years. Perhaps you do not live in a country with a debt of $120 trillion. Perhaps you have socialized medicine. Perhaps you might share how you come to your beliefs and opinions with facts.

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Re: Thoughts of an outsider

Hi Spray,

Davos was directing you to this film: -

A Crude Awakening

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-665674869982904386

You might well gain great insight from this excellent lecture also : -

Arithmetic, Population and growth

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4364780292633368976

For a definative book that I recommend, you can read this one online: -

The Party's Over ~ by Richard Heinberg

These should be of great help ...

~ VF ~

 

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Re: Thoughts of an outsider

Sorry for testing you. I mostly wanted to see what kind of reaction I would get if I questioned your behavior. Fortunately it was met with logic, facts and tips rather than the kind of answer I would get if I questioned a religion, or something else not based on facts. I'm very glad to see you are also sceptical to the facts given by CM (and presumably others). As my knowledge in the area is limited to say the least, I thought I'd rather ask you than spend the hundreds of hours needed to get even a faint idea of whether the things CM say could be true or not. Seeing that it seems very likely I will have to do some proper research, though.

ao: Yes, being mentally and to whatever extent one can be physically (it's hard to be self-sufficient in a city, for example) prepared is important, even if the risk is small (which doesn't seem the case here). You're talking to someone with a long history in scouting. As for the evidence: yes he presents a lot of it, but that doesn't mean there isn't even more evidence against him which he doesn't show. Again, that doesn't seem the case here.

V: Yes, I'll do my research now that I know it's worth the time! I don't really have any beliefs in this question, I just routinely question everything I hear. Yes, our medicine is socialized, among other important parts of society (here, noone is poor and noone is filthy rich). And no, we don't have that kind of debt.

Thanks, I'll look into the videos and links!

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Re: Thoughts of an outsider

 

Spray,

Your posting of this thread is reminiscent of a thread posted a couple of weeks ago. You may find the responses there helpful.

http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/time-its-different/42534

The need to prepare for change transcends the issue of peak Oil. The nearing endpoint of the global fiat money system is (at least  to me) an even greater concern, for example. I've yet to hear a credible arguement on how to avoid the painful result of this debt mess. "We'll grow our way out of it" is a dubious proposition at best considering all the factors involved.

And there are others, in addition to Dr. Martenson, who have sounded the alarm on these other issues long before they came into the public consciousness.

I'm a natural skeptic bordering on cynic, but now a convert. Facts can be hard things to dismiss.

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Re: Thoughts of an outsider

To All,

I thank Spray for the question but I really thank Tycer, Davos, ao, Johhny Oxygen and Vanityfox451 for their thoughtful and helpful answers. You, gentlemen, are the heart and soul of this site and why I return often for great minds that uplift, inspire and teach others in the spirit of Ancient Greek rhetoric. If any of you live anywhere near New Orleans (or traveling here anytime), I would love to have a cup of coffee and discuss things further. I may not have much to offer but I am a good listener...Smile

Many thanks...

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Re: Thoughts of an outsider

Thanks Paul.

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Re: Thoughts of an outsider

Spray,

As you go about your research, might I suggest keeping these things in mind:

The past can give helful indicators to what might happen in future but it cannot be used to predict, with certainty how the financial and energy aspects of this predicament plays out. There is no period in history that is a good analog for what we face now.

Do the possible solutions involve wishful thinking? This doesn't mean that those solutions are impossible but do they rely on stuff that hasn't been figured out yet? Not all problems can be solved.

Do the possible solutions scale? The world expects populations and economies to grow. Even if the proposed solution can scale to present needs, can they continually grow to meet the demand that developed and developing nations expect in future?

Can the possible solutions replace the resources that are becoming, or will become, scarce within human life times, for all of their uses? Are substututes as good? What happens when those subsitutes become scarce.

The law of the minimum dictates that it really just takes one vital resource to become scarce for collapse to ensue.

Economic growth can't continue indefinitely on a finite planet. Some posit other planets or bodies but that goes into the wishful thinking bucket.

Chris doesn't cover environmental factors much in his Crash Course, except in terms of resources. Think about whether proposed solutions might have environmental impacts, remembering that assumptions about this have led us to where we are.

What is the energy returned on the energy invested (EROEI) for possible alternative energy sources? Conventional oil returns up to 20 times the energy that is invested in its production. What is the return with alternatives? It is the net energy that supports the complexity of our societies.

Can alternative energy sources be used, with no other inputs, to build and maintain those energy sources, including their infrastructure? This is not strictly needed to begin with but will be needed as oil and natural gas deplete. In addition, what resources are needed to build and maintain those alternative energy sources and what can we expect of costs, if the EROEI is low? How will those costs impact societies?

I'll repeat one of these: does the solution rely on wishful thinking?

Tony

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Re: Thoughts of an outsider

By the way, Spray, your thoughts aren't the thoughts of an outsider. I guess most of us have felt this way to a greater or lesser degree. I spent about a month (it doesn't sound like much but it was a solid month) trying to find counters to the some of the messages of the Crash Course (this was a couple of years before the crash course) and I couldn't find any that didn't fit into the wishful thinking basket. I still apply that critical thinking to attempted counter arguments and still would like to find a decent one, because collapse will not be pretty. So, if you do find something that seems rational to you, please post here.

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Re: Thoughts of an outsider
Spray wrote:

Tycer: I listened to the podcast, and while Chris seems like someone who takes the data very seriously and tries to keep his feelings out of his work, he also said that the point of the CC was to affect people (that is, not to present the truth), something that makes me suspect his data isn't representative.

If I understand the part about the scientists correctly both tried to show how he manipulated his data, but none of them could find any sort of manipulation in there. That would naturally decrease the probability of manipulated data a lot.

I believe the affecting is accomplished with the style of the presentation, i.e. layman's terms and examples. His delivery is moving enough on it's own, I've not found any need to manipulate the data. Some of it is a bit dated and is more pressing than the CC shows.

You understood my meaning well. Wanna give my spouse lessons?Wink

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Re: Thoughts of an outsider


ljhaines wrote:

To All,

I thank Spray for the question but I really thank Tycer, Davos, ao, Johhny Oxygen and Vanityfox451 for their thoughtful and helpful answers. You, gentlemen, are the heart and soul of this site and why I return often for great minds that uplift, inspire and teach others in the spirit of Ancient Greek rhetoric. If any of you live anywhere near New Orleans (or traveling here anytime), I would love to have a cup of coffee and discuss things further. I may not have much to offer but I am a good listener...Smile

Many thanks...

ljhaines,

Thank you for the kind words, they're much appreciated. As much as possible, this forum needs to maintain an openness that inspires people to broach questions they have, and for them to be accepted and embraced, not ignored.

With reasoning then, with as much patience as I can muster at any given time, (my life is being impacted upon with stresses of this knowledge too), I will answer from what I've learned, offering my time to help as best I can.

Appreciation must also go faithfully to Davos, who fastidiously ran the Daily Digest admirably and taught me much of what I’ve come to understand here, and continues to surprise and inform.

The art, depth and breadth of this forum, has to be past forward. Information sometimes appears old to many regulars here, yet to those just entering into the depth of the global issues ahead, they are seeing all these possible scenario's with fresh eyes; some with fear and horror, yet others with a positive attitude.

Not everyone that you meet on the street and in your daily life are people that are consistent. Not everyone you meet agrees with all we think and say, and vice versa. Patience is key.

This post isn't about greeting everyone here with a group hug, heaven forbid! This is about appreciation where it is due, and maintaining the candid philosophies that keep this site oiled, if you'll all excuse the pun ...

~ VF ~

P.S. I'd consider it a pleasure to share a cup of coffee with you ...

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Re: Thoughts of an outsider

Spray

I'm new to the forum but have been concerned about the issue for some time.  A more 'religious' look at this issue might be found in Michael Ruppert's  'Collapse the Movie'.  It is another presentation of similar concerns, but much more emotional. 

One issue that is blocking a world wide solution to the PO problem is what I call 'vested momentum'.  By that I'm referring to the corporate-govenment cooperation that supports everything from subsidizing corn to invading foreign countries to sustain the momentum of using oil as the primary portable energy source.  If BP, for instance, had paid to invade Iraq, then I expect the price of oil would reflect that cost.  The increased cost would drive more of us to seek other sources.  As long as the free market is hindered the response to PO will be primarily a reflex to catastrophic events rather than a smooth transition to new sources. 

Therefore it is best that as many of us as possible do this voluntarily and not wait for the brick wall to present itself. Martenson is a welcomed approach to this problem

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Re: Thoughts of an outsider
Spray wrote:

I just saw/heard the crash course and I must say it was an amazing eye-opener. However, it's clear that it is not a neutral presentation, and after reading this forum for a couple of hours i can't help but to get a certain feeling of déjà vu (Y2K anyone?). Whereas I don't think the data presented is false, it is likely to be chosen carefully and as such might not give a good representation of reality. What i would want is to hear the arguments of the opposite side (ones who believe some other energy source will take over, that this is all blown out of proportions etc). Only then could I make an informed decision. Could someone be kind enough to present these arguments and/or link me there?

Welcome Spray,

If you haven't already, I would recommend you familiarize yourself with the data in the reference section of this site as well as it  has data from many past "thinkers" relating to these subjects. The concepts of Peak Oil and resource depletion are certainly not new and many points which were "opinions" 60 years ago have now proven out.

And I have come to rely on one of my most trusted sources to date and that is simply asking "what is my gut feeling about the situation".  This of course changes from time to time and I am happy to find out information which changes my mind about things. But in the vast majority of situations, I have found that violating my basic intuition or "knowingness" about something has produced the greatest debacles for me personally.

Hope you enjoy the journey!

Coop

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Re: Thoughts of an outsider

Spray,

By the way, you are now on the inside track IMHO!

Coop

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