Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, Texas, New York and Kansas

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Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, Texas, New York and Kansas

70 dead, 1000 contaminated. Mortality rate of 7%?? Not toooo bad but lets hope this thing doesnt spread out of control. World Health Organization is stating that containment may be impossible at this point. I dont know much about lethal viruses but i do know that this thing has spread much quicker than the Bird Flu scare. Also, the fact that this has originated in Mexico City doesnt make things any better as more than 15 million people live there piled on top of each other.

The media is loving this so i am aware of the hype potential going through the roof. At the same time I am aware of the fact that pandemics do occur, just because we havent had one in a while doesnt mean we wont have one now. Perhaps the CDC and our doctors will come up with a vaccine if this does get out of control.

Economic effect: this wont help the already struggling consumer as people will be in a panic and will stay at home.

Lets see what happens. Time will tell. Lets hope this thing blows over.

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8018356.stm

I've been following the story on BBC. They have a section of (I think pre-screened) reader comments including this one:

 

I work as a resident doctor in one of the biggest hospitals in Mexico City and sadly, the situation is far from "under control". As a doctor, I realise that the media does not report the truth. Authorities distributed vaccines among all the medical personnel with no results, because two of my partners who worked in this hospital (interns) were killed by this new virus in less than six days even though they were vaccinated as all of us were. The official number of deaths is 20, nevertheless, the true number of victims are more than 200. I understand that we must avoid to panic, but telling the truth it might be better now to prevent and avoid more deaths.

Yeny Gregorio Dávila, Mexico City

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...

I just read the report. Thats not good. Wow, a "black swan" event could be underway as we speak. I live in LA, but in the suburbs on a hill. People are already going crazy, there were 2 murder suicides and a professor going on a rampage this week alone. I could only imagine how much worse people are going to act when inflation, unemployment, civil unrest, limited oil reserves and all the other problems get worse. Just what we need on top of everything else is a pandemic. Sigh

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...

Also 2 confirmed cases in Kansas, 8 children with Type A influenza suspected H1N1 strain in New York, and some suspected in Massachusets and Minnesota. No confirmed deaths as yet, and only 1 hospitalization.

This is spreading fast.

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...

 

[Ed. note: copyright violation]

In reply to the edit.....  I post DOZENS of news items from this site EVERY DAY, and have done for more than FIVE YEARS on my Australian forum without EVER being pulled up once....  EVER.

I think you're being a little over sensitive about copyright here...  you haven't even picked up the others posted here over the past weeks, so why this one?

Mike

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...
bearmarkettrader wrote:

 Thats not good. Wow, a "black swan" event could be underway as we speak.

 

Black swine

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...

There's some interesting detail in this article:

http://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20090424/mexico-swine-flu-epidemic-worries-world?src=RSS_PUBLIC

 

in particular this:

Alarmingly, the flu outbreak in Mexico is striking healthy young people -- a pattern that would be expected if a flu virus new to humans emerged.

"Because these cases are not happening in the very old or the very young, which happens with seasonal influenza, this is an unusual event and a cause for heightened concern," Hartl said in a CBC interview.

That's not the only eyebrow-raising feature of the swine flu outbreaks. Infections have occurred in Mexico, California, and Texas -- where warm weather should mean the end of the normal flu season, says William Schaffner, MD, president-elect of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases and chair of preventive medicine and infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University.

"Will we see this flu virus transmitted in the warm months? That would give us heartburn," Schaffner tells WebMD. "And is this a harbinger of things to come during our next flu season?"

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...

I read in one article that the ones most seriously affected and the deaths are occurring in the 25-45-year-old people. Perhaps the healthiest among us. Go figure that one.

But I am taking this seriously and if this becomes pandemic, me and mine will stay home for a couple of months.

Glad I have that food stored up.

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...

 

When the Hantavirus (sp?) struck some 12-15 years ago, I was in the thick of the biotech industry.  The CDC had the virus genome sequenced within a week, identified the mode of transmission, and panic subsided when they released the results.  That was well over a decade ago.  I would surmise that the CDC already has the genome sequenced as we speak.  If they do not announce positive new in the next few days, that will not be good.  It will mean they do not want us to know how bad it is. 

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...

There are some common sense things that we all can do to limit our exposure. Perhaps the most important is to wash your hands frequently with disinfectant soap. This seems such a simple thing to do, but it can be effective. Avoid touching your hands to your mouth and face during the work day. If you suspect that you live in a "hot spot", then wear a face mask like they are starting to do in Mexico City. Avoid contact with strangers as much as possible, which might mean not riding the Metro in Mexico City, for example. Above all, use common sense.

I know these things because I've spent six years of my life volunteering for the American Red Cross. There are no perfect solutions, but there are some practical things we can do. We will get through this crisis, just as we have gotten through others in our lifetimes.

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...
jerrydon10 wrote:

I read in one article that the ones most seriously affected and the deaths are occurring in the 25-45-year-old people. Perhaps the healthiest among us. Go figure that one.

But I am taking this seriously and if this becomes pandemic, me and mine will stay home for a couple of months.

Glad I have that food stored up.

the age group you mentioned will have the strongest immune system and hence will cause the strongest response if people in this age group become infected.  The virus/infection is one thing, the body's response can be another.

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...

Howdy all,

I've been watching this develop at work and was wondering if anyone else drew the parallel between this strain of H1N1, and the Spanish Influenza, which shared several traits:
1. It was an H1N1 strain;
2. It effected a median age, rather than the young or elderly;
3. A type "A" influenza, meaning it passes between poultry, swine and humans, making it generally more dangerous to humans.

As such, I think it's important to keep an eye on history, where necessary and we're able.

I did some looking into the epidemiology behind the Spanish Flu epidemic, it spread everywhere - even to the arctic circle within about 3 months. Keep in mind, this was 1918, and, like today, we were in a war, with lots of transit between nations. In addition, war creates cramped conditions, and a lot of opportunity for transmission. We have much wiser practices these days, which should mitigate the risk some.

Preliminary figures from Mexico show about 6% mortality rate, (61/1000) "officially" and unofficially, an even larger percent (an approximate 200/800) by a resident MD in Mexico City.

Which means that the lethality may be as high as 25%. This is a very small cross section from which to draw, so more time will have to pass before we really know. The next 5-10 days are critical.

Because of our more advanced medical practices and generally better sanitation, it's likely that we'll see much lower death rates; however, the Spanish Flu took about 9 months to fully mature. Within that time frame we could very well see a disruption to supply, and a reciprocal wave of influenza that would be potentially more damaging to Americans, after effecting the rest of the world.

The transit between nations is so overwhelming, that any thought of containing this packed up and went home with the knuckleheads celebrating Spring Break in Mexico.

I think the reason we're seeing lower lethality so far is that Americans are less susceptible to the secondary diseases that were, more often than not, the "cause" of death; such as Pneumonia.

Other nations may not be, and that will be the determining factor in whether or not this turns into a serious global pandemic, or whether it blows over and is largely contained.

On H1N1 "Spanish Influenza":

Quote:

"Influenza, an acute epidemic infectious and contagious disease, sometimes becoming pandemic. It is characterized by an inflammation of the mucous membrane of the respiratory tract.... Pandemics have ... been recorded as early as ... 1510. It has always been noted that an epidemic is composed of three distinct waves as the disease sweeps over the world ... separated by many months, the second wave generally being the most serious. Pandemics or worldwide occurrences of influenza have been recorded in 1781, 1832, 1847, 1889, and 1918. In each of this instances the disease became epidemic in a definite area....

"The incubation stage of the disease is short, from one to three days. The onset is sudden, especially in the epidemic type, and is marked in general by a true chill and a rise in temperature to 102 degrees F. or even to 104 degrees F.... Practically all patients have respiratory symptoms such as running at the nose, laryngitis, and bronchitis with expectoration. The patient seems dull and apathetic.... When a typical case is encountered, especially during an epidemic, the diagnosis is easily made.... Severe forms without complications present the same train of symptoms but to an exaggerated degree. The chill is more severe, the pain in the limbs worse, and the prostration extreme. The temperature may be as high as 105 degrees F. Cough is racking, pain in the chest agonizing, and there may be nausea and vomiting. The patient looks extremely ill.... In about 10 per cent of the cases of influenza the pneumonic type is present, the signs appearing on the third or fourth day.... With the appearance of pneumonia the patient becomes more toxic and cyanosis is present. Occasionally a severe and rapidly fatal pneumonia is observed in which the patient is in extremis within 24 hours and dies within another day. Such cases were frequent during the epidemic of 1918. In the pneumonic cases where actual pneumonia is present the mortality may be from 20 to 60 per cent."

Source: Encyclopedia Americana 1954, Vol. 15, p. 124.

Weren't we just talking about this?

Aaron

PS - I'm really intersted in hearing our resident Medical Professionals weigh in on this!

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Many don't have to die to cause a catastrophe!

 

Well to add to the 'good cheer' if this swine flu outbreak turned into a global pandemic, making several hundred million sick without necessarily even killing a high percentage of the population, we would run and of food and nearly everything else within a few weeks.

Actually probably faster once news of the pandemic broke as people would simply panic buy.

People who are very ill in bed don't plow fields, plant crops, transport goods or people, manage businesses or mismanage governments, provide health care, teach, construct, co-ordinate or much else.

The healthcare system would collapse first as it rapidly overloads and implodes within just a few days and then everything else would follow.

In our age of fast global transportation a pandemic could spread rapidly and exponentially within weeks.

If this scenario played out starting right now the SWHTF within just 2-3 weeks.

'Food' for thought may end up being the only food you have!

 

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Update on swine flu outbreak

The mainstream media now has the current death toll at 81, with 1400 cases. The next 5-10 days will show us whether this thing is just a flare up or the begining of a difficult time period for the entire planet. Hopefully the CDC wizards can come up with some magic and soon.

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...

Looks like we have cases here in NZ too. Provisional test results not reported to public. School team returned from Mexico yesterday.

http://www.3news.co.nz/News/Swine-flu-feared-to-have-spread-to-NZ/tabid/...

Don

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...
pir8don wrote:

Looks like we have cases here in NZ too. Provisional test results not reported to public. School team returned from Mexico yesterday.

http://www.3news.co.nz/News/Swine-flu-feared-to-have-spread-to-NZ/tabid/...

Don

Confirmed Swine flu for those Kiwi kids though they aren't in immediate danger. Amazing how these things can spread around the world so fast. I'm sure travel is going to be restricted.

 

Cheers,

David,

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...

I'm vacationing in Singapore and can't help but wonder whether my trip back to the U.S. will be restricted if this "goes big". More to the point, I can't decide whether I *want* to return to the U.S. if this goes big!

Erik

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...

What's disturbing to me is that we're not getting accurate information, it seems. I'm debating asking my Mom not to fly out here to Colorado from San Diego tomorrow, or at least to wear a mask on the plane. It seems an extreme precaution based upon what we're reading at the moment in the news, but may not be so extreme if we were getting complete and accurate information....

 

Read a selection of BBC readers' comments below.

 


I'm a specialist doctor in respiratory diseases and intensive care at the Mexican National Institute of Health. There is a severe emergency over the swine flu here. More and more patients are being admitted to the intensive care unit. Despite the heroic efforts of all staff (doctors, nurses, specialists, etc) patients continue to inevitably die. The truth is that anti-viral treatments and vaccines are not expected to have any effect, even at high doses. It is a great fear among the staff. The infection risk is very high among the doctors and health staff.

There is a sense of chaos in the other hospitals and we do not know what to do. Staff are starting to leave and many are opting to retire or apply for holidays. The truth is that mortality is even higher than what is being reported by the authorities, at least in the hospital where I work it. It is killing three to four patients daily, and it has been going on for more than three weeks. It is a shame and there is great fear here. Increasingly younger patients aged 20 to 30 years are dying before our helpless eyes and there is great sadness among health professionals here.
Antonio Chavez, Mexico City

 

Friends working in hospitals say that the situation is really bad, they are talking about 19 people dead in Oaxaca, including a doctor and a nurse

 
Alvaro Ricardez, Oaxaca City

I think there is a real lack of information and sadly, preventative action. In the capital of my state, Oaxaca, there is a hospital closed because of a death related to the porcine influenza. In the papers they recognise only two people dead for that cause. Many friends working in hospitals or related fields say that the situation is really bad, they are talking about 19 people dead in Oaxaca, including a doctor and a nurse. They say they got shots but they were told not to talk about the real situation. Our authorities say nothing. Life goes on as usual here.

Young people are going to schools and universities. Buses and planes go and come from Mexico City as frequently as before. Even with two people dead locally, last night the local baseball stadium was full, mainly with young people. What's really happening? I know vaccines are good for nothing, and if you take care, maybe you won't die, so, why not acknowledge the real situation? I know that the economic situation is not the best, and it will worsen with panic. But panic comes from a lack of information. Many people travel for pleasure or without any real need. Stopping those unjustified trips can help a lot to ease the situation. We must do something!
Alvaro Ricardez, Oaxaca City, Oaxaca, Mexico

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...

Normally a doomsayer, I'm now going to not be.

Deaths from this 'Flu may be caused by a secondary infection normally pneumonia, that impacts that person, this could be the cause of the discrepancy in death figures. There's also questions about how long were these people infected, yada yada. It's not time to panic yet.

Take sensible precautions, I personally would not fly right now (for all the airlines claim they have anti-viral filters), and I won't be visiting Southern California, or Texas, etc. for the time being.

Here's an interesting phrase in the "Antonio Chavez" comment from the BBC

Quote:

The truth is that anti-viral treatments and vaccines are not expected to have any effect

As a Specialist Doctor of respiratory diseases he should be very clear that vaccines are preventative, once primary infection begins a vaccine will have no effect. So take some of these comments with a grain of salt.

On a positive front the CDC have announced that they have generated a "seed stock", so vaccine production can begin, for this strain at least.

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...

I bet that "specialist doctor" is just some ass who is nowhere near mexico getting a kick out of people believing what he says.

With the current infastucture in place I don't see this going around killing many people. It might cause a lot of economic problems but they way they can communicate and clamp down on problem areas is pretty good. The reason I hate all these claims of conspiracy theorys is I like sites like this to stay proffesional. Claiming things like the NWO has released a supervirus to cull the population is not going to help us reach general public.

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...

Firejack,

I agree, to an extent. I don't trust "comments" left by anyone on the media channels... that said, I don't trust the media, either.

The truth perhaps is somewhere down the middle.

Cheers,

Aaron

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...
ErikTownsend wrote:

I'm vacationing in Singapore and can't help but wonder whether my trip back to the U.S. will be restricted if this "goes big". More to the point, I can't decide whether I *want* to return to the U.S. if this goes big!

Erik

Maybe Jim Rogers has a guest room for you?  But it looks like the cats out of the bag in terms of containing this virus anyway so they probably won't be closing the airports.  However, you might want to avoid a 15 hour plane flight with recirculating air--that seems like a prime place to catch a virus.  If secondary infections are the major problem, the US may not be in such a bad situation, but that could change if the virus becomes more virulent.

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...

Update: Confirmed case in Ohio, 8 students in NYC, 4 confirmed in Canada. U.S. declares public health emergency. This bug is here and will spread. Lethality is the concern. From what i know about flu's they are strongest in the first 3-4 weeks. So perhaps its going to be a bad month. And no joke i feel like utter crap right now. Been sneezing, nausea, body aches, many flu type symptoms. Live in so california. Not going to the hospital cus i wont risk quarantine.

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...

US declares public health emergency for swine flu
From Associated Press
April 26, 2009 1:37 PM EDT
WASHINGTON - The U.S. declared a public health emergency Sunday to deal with the emerging new swine flu, much like the government does to prepare for approaching hurricanes.

Officials reported 20 U.S. cases of swine flu in five states so far, with the latest in Ohio and New York. Unlike in Mexico where the same strain appears to be killing dozens of people, cases in the United State have been mild - and U.S. health authorities can't yet explain why.

"As we continue to look for cases, we are going to see a broader spectrum of disease," predicted Dr. Richard Besser, acting chief of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "We're going to see more severe disease in this country."

At a White House news conference, Besser and Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano sought to assure Americans that health officials are taking all appropriate steps to minimize the impact of the outbreak.

Top among those is declaring the public health emergency. As part of that, Napolitano said roughly 12 million doses of the drug Tamiflu will be moved from a federal stockpile to places where states can quickly get their share if they decide they need it. Priority will be given to the five states with known cases so far: California, Texas, New York, Ohio and Kansas.

Napolitano called the emergency declaration standard operating procedure - one was declared recently for the inauguration and for flooding. She urged people to think of it as a "declaration of emergency preparedness."

"Really that's what we're doing right now. We're preparing in an environment where we really don't know ultimately what the size of seriousness of this outbreak is going to be."

 

It appears these guys are taking no chances......This really is one to watch given how long overdue the world is for such a pandemic, especially given the media history of generally under-reporting serious issues unless it is front and centre of the general population.  I guess only time will tell.

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...
bearmarkettrader wrote:

And no joke i feel like utter crap right now. Been sneezing, nausea, body aches, many flu type symptoms. Live in so california. Not going to the hospital cus i wont risk quarantine.

Ever occur to you that people are dying of this? Go to the ER, bearmarkettrader. Like yesterday!

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...

Feeling very dizzy and NO im not being a stupid internet troll. Heres my cell if you dont believe me 714-928-1258. I might just go to the hospital after all but im worried. If it gets worse i go. Damn this sucks

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...

No, I don't think you're a troll. Just worried you may have something that you need some help getting over. Odds are you don't have that strain, but you also just might. And you know us on here.....hope for the best.....but prepare..blah, blah. I would go now just to ease my mind if nothing else.

Jerry

PS, sure you want your cell number posted on the Internet?

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...
jerrydon10 wrote:

No, I don't think you're a troll. Just worried you may have something that you need some help getting over. Odds are you don't have that strain, but you also just might. And you know us on here.....hope for the best.....but prepare..blah, blah. I would go now just to ease my mind if nothing else.

Jerry

PS, sure you want your cell number posted on the Internet?

bearmarkettrader,

I second jerrydon10's concern. With all the strange stuff going around, you'd be smart to head to a clinic or an emergency room post haste. Please get yourself checked out and let us know how you are doing.

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...
SamLinder wrote:
jerrydon10 wrote:

No, I don't think you're a troll. Just worried you may have something that you need some help getting over. Odds are you don't have that strain, but you also just might. And you know us on here.....hope for the best.....but prepare..blah, blah. I would go now just to ease my mind if nothing else.

Jerry

PS, sure you want your cell number posted on the Internet?

bearmarkettrader,

I second jerrydon10's concern. With all the strange stuff going around, you'd be smart to head to a clinic or an emergency room post haste. Please get yourself checked out and let us know how you are doing.

Third that.  I don't know you -- but I do -- and I have genuine concern & affection for the good smarties here @ CM.com...  FWIW, if you went to the hospital today, they'd prolly get you treated in a couple hours and you'd be safely home soon.  Even if they start quarantining folks, they prolly wouldn't for another few days, so you'd be ahead of that curve.  IMO.

Feel better -- VIVA!  Sager

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...

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Re: Swine flu outbreak- cases reported in California, ...

I do not profess to know anything about anything but if I were in your position I would get examined for myself and others I may come in contact with. If, in I assume the unlikely case, that I would have the subject flu strain I would welcome the treatment and be happy to be quarantined to prevent infection to my family or any other human beings.

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