S&P 500 index down 9.2% off its intermediate bull market peak

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Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
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S&P 500 index down 9.2% off its intermediate bull market peak

I believe i should be able to rightfully take credit for calling the market top. Either im one lucky swing trader or ive got some 6th sense with markets. I have been successful in shorting gold at 1210, shorting crude from its recent 83.50 high (but covered a bit too soon at 74).

Check my old posts and you will see that SPX could peak at 1150, i was saying this back in May/June/July and have only started shorting now. Traders were showing charts of the 1929-32 bear market and i responded by saying that the FED was being much more aggressive now than it was back then.

Heres my post from Dec 3, 2009 saying that the market had topped or was very near topping. Ive been adding short positions since then. At the time SPX was at 1103, dipped a bit and then hit its peak at 1150.

http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/market-sentiment-getting-more-bullish-bears-capitulating-en-masse/32297

Anyways enough with patting myself on the shoulder (those who pat themselves get the rug pulled out under them very quickly). Expect to see a relief rally early next week as most ADD minute term traders see a nice opportunity in a relief rally. Bull market tops dont go down without a fight as studing old market tops show that they fight and scream on their way down. This is where the battle of bull vs bear really heats up and volatility goes wild.

Nevertheless, wave 2 of the bear is back and who knows how low we can go. Of course, the SPX should fall to roughly 500 but with a determined money printer this wont happen. End of March is key with QE. Until then, i expect pressure to the downside to continue.

 

Love,

Bearmarkettrader, esq

 

PS: still looking for work. Cant find squat.

PSS: ive applied to the FDIC, SEC for staff attorney positions. Will let u know what transpires

JAG's picture
JAG
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Re: S&P 500 index down 9.2% off its intermediate bull ...

If you don't have a job, how do you have any money to play the markets?

Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 17 2009
Posts: 562
Re: S&P 500 index down 9.2% off its intermediate bull ...

I work for the family business, havent found a law related job yet.

Morpheus's picture
Morpheus
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Re: S&P 500 index down 9.2% off its intermediate bull ...
JAG wrote:

If you don't have a job, how do you have any money to play the markets?

Ask any day trader. 

Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
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Posts: 562
Re: S&P 500 index down 9.2% off its intermediate bull ...

Yo morpheus you are the man! One of my favorite posters on this blog.

Hey, you gotta love that intraday reversal. That was way too easy to call LOL

Morpheus's picture
Morpheus
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Joined: Dec 27 2008
Posts: 1200
Re: S&P 500 index down 9.2% off its intermediate bull ...
bearmarkettrader wrote:

Yo morpheus you are the man! One of my favorite posters on this blog.

Hey, you gotta love that intraday reversal. That was way too easy to call LOL

Gratzi. *Curtsies for Bear^

What? A 1% move in a matter of minutes? Odd, wasn't it? I watched it unfold in real time and my stomach sank. I'd ridden SKF, TWN, and SDS all day, got out after lunch, and decided to get cute...

Me got too greedy. The scuttlebutt was that the Consumer Credit Index for 12/09 was down y/o/y, again. 

So, I played TWM again @ around 2:40 pm. It's sliding a bit...OK, shorts are covering... but the 3pm announcement. 

Consumer Credit down .75% in December, but less than expected. It's LESS BAD

Poof, half my days profits gone before I could liquidate my position. It was too fast. 

I smell BS. Nothing reverses that fast on that kind of news. Maybe a little mini-short squeeze. I dunno. But I'd never witnessed live anything like it since last July. 

Morpheus's picture
Morpheus
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Posts: 1200
Re: S&P 500 index down 9.2% off its intermediate bull ...

Come to think of it, it's Friday, it's been a long trip down, and the shorts had to cover. The CCI was likely the trigger for a massive pre-weekend cover. 

Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 17 2009
Posts: 562
Re: S&P 500 index down 9.2% off its intermediate bull ...

Also think of all the speculators that bought in looking for a couple percentage points! Also, the permabulls buying on the dips LOL

Morpheus's picture
Morpheus
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Joined: Dec 27 2008
Posts: 1200
Re: S&P 500 index down 9.2% off its intermediate bull ...
bearmarkettrader wrote:

Also think of all the speculators that bought in looking for a couple percentage points! Also, the permabulls buying on the dips LOL

Bullish hammer formation is setting up in the SPX and COMPQ. 

I have no idea how Monday is going to play out. Perhaps a retracement? Thoughts anyone?

JAG's picture
JAG
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Posts: 2492
Re: S&P 500 index down 9.2% off its intermediate bull ...

"It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt."

-Abraham Lincoln

Morpheus's picture
Morpheus
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
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Posts: 1200
Re: S&P 500 index down 9.2% off its intermediate bull ...
JAG wrote:

"It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt."

-Abraham Lincoln

What's your point Jeff? Please grace me with your wisdom. 

JAG's picture
JAG
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 26 2008
Posts: 2492
Re: S&P 500 index down 9.2% off its intermediate bull ...
Morpheus wrote:
JAG wrote:

"It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt."

-Abraham Lincoln

What's your point Jeff? Please grace me with your wisdom. 

Calm down Pete, I was just responding to the question:

I have no idea how Monday is going to play out. Perhaps a retracement? Thoughts anyone?

Meaning I better not speculate to avoid making a fool out of myself on Monday.

idoctor's picture
idoctor
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 4 2008
Posts: 1731
Re: S&P 500 index down 9.2% off its intermediate bull ...

The volatility was wild today. Sold my FAZ & 1/2 of my EEV a little to early but with the sudden reversal I am happy I took the gain. Went long S at 3.32 & was able to sell that at the close. My guess is they will do thier best at damage control & try the rescue Monday.

Bearmarkettrader what is your take & next move on Monday? Going to be a long weekend with lots of news & thoughts from the WSJ & Barrons.

All seems completely tied to the dollar. Rick Santelli said if you want to see a chart of the dow just turn the chart of the dollar upside down LOL.

I am long oil at 75 which may hurt for a while but I left dry powder for adding at some point. The problem I have with shorting oil is we are one bomb, missle or bullet away from a disaster. You will not have time to get out if that happens. Long I can wait for 10 years if needed.

I hope for one more rally in Feb. to finish getting out of some long positions. Most of these are in energy & utilities which hurt today.

Nevertheless, wave 2 of the bear is back and who knows how low we can go. Of course, the SPX should fall to roughly 500 but with a determined money printer this wont happen. End of March is key with QE. Until then, i expect pressure to the downside to continue.

+1

Anybody have any thoughts on the Miners?

I like playing both long & short. Exciting times to be a trader LOL. I like what Art Cashion said today & is why I want to carry some shorts at these levels http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1405483251&play=1.

 Anyone here ever trade VXX.....it was jumping around today.

idoctor's picture
idoctor
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 4 2008
Posts: 1731
Re: S&P 500 index down 9.2% off its intermediate bull ...

Well so much for my Monday morning rescue LOL.....May have to fasten the seat belts & add some more shorts.

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