So...what does it really mean?

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Retha's picture
Retha
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So...what does it really mean?

 Ok, so I started my 'education' process of things to come about a year ago.  Preps in progress...have food, water, security, garden, silver/gold, chickens...much more to do, I suppose.

Anyway....deflation/inflation/hyperinflation...I  understand the various general ramifications of these options...unemployment,  stagnant or lower wages,  higher/lower prices of goods, etc.  What happens if the dollar collapses and you are stuck with debt, ie mortgage, credit card, cars...it all won't just go away, will you have to figure out an alternative to pay for it?  Gold coins?  What happens to the millions who will not be able to pay and have no other alternatives?   Millions of defaults...I just imagine families wandering the streets, looting, dumpster diving...

Can someone enlighten me on this?  

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Dogs_In_A_Pile
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Great questions....

retha -

First off, welcome to the site.  Most of us have asked this question at one time or another and most of us are still asking the question - but now with a modified perspective.

I assume from your join date that you have been around the site long enough to have watched Crash Course?  And now you have a lot of questions.

I would strongly recommend you go through the Self Assessment (under the "Take Action" tab at the top of the page.  Figure out where you are and then figure out in your own mind, what it is that YOU think is going to happen.  It will fall somewhere between "Nothing" and "Mad Max End of Days"

Once you establish in your mind what it is you think is going to happen, you can formulate an action plan to add resiliency to your life.  That plan is going to be specific to you - a function of your age, income, family situation, etc.  Start working at your plan at your pace.  Any and every item on your action list you accomplish is one more step towards adding resiliency.

It can be as simple as learning how to garden to offset your expense for fruit and veggies - or you can establish your own fully functioning biofuel operation (as some here have done).

Just take it in small steps, celebrate every accomplishment and then focus on a slow and deliberate effort to get to the next step.  Anything you do to improve your own resiliency is a step in the right direction.  Remember that this is a marathon and not a sprint - so even if you have to walk, you are moving in the right direction.

Also understand that you are a member of a lively, colorful and vibrant community here.  You will be able to find others that are very close to where you are preps wise and can offer personal experience.  The rest can and will offer encouragement along the way.

These links may help once you figure out your plan:

http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/consolidated-list-links-existing-preparation-threads/27912

http://www.peakprosperity.com/category/blog/what-should-i-do

Keep us posted on your efforts and don't hesitate to ask questions.

 

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Retha
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A little research

 I found a few articles very interesting.  My take is...pay your debt down & get a gun.  Argentina's 'dollar' never went away per se, the devaluation & hyperinflation - it would be difficult to buy anything.  (If there is anything left!) 

http://www.worldofwallstreet.us/2008/11/what-a-real-financialcurrency-crisis-looks-like-argentina-20012002-a-case-study.html

http://www.dailypaul.com/62659/after-the-collapse?sss=1

 

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Retha
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Thank you Dogs :)

Thank you for the comment!   I have gone through the crash course & I am telling everyone I know about it!  I've read and re-read most all of the blogs & threads.  I guess sometimes, it can be a little overwhelming when you sit down and really think.  Most friends/family think I've lost it...lol  As I mentioned, my preps are ongoing, although there is still more to do.  I appreciate the comment and links.  Sometimes you, well I,  just need to take a step back, count to ten and re-group the thought processes & lists to finish!  So easy to feel like being on the edge of a knife between 'panic' and 'preparing'   

Thanks again!  

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timeandtide
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Dealing with deflation

 No one really knows what will happen but history may be a guide. The Great Depression of the 30s was a very rough time for many but there was not a general breakdown in law and order. Basically, people helped each other because there was not much help coming from the governmenet. In other words, people were far more self-reliant than they are today. The un-employed took whatever work they could get. In Australia, many workers shared jobs so that everyone had at least some income. People were more self-reliant in terms of food - they grew their own and they kept chickens.

I suspect things are going to be a lot rougher in this deflationary depression when people find out that governments can barely afford to maintain welfare. It is often said that communities no longer exist in the way that did 40 or more years ago. I am not sure that is really true. I think people will organise at the local level and help each other. My experience in Australia is that the community spirit is still very strong - especially in time of strife. I do not know whether that is true in large cities in the US or Europe. The citizens of New Orleans found out the limitations of government help after Katrina. I suspect a lot of anger will be directed at all levels of government. I believe that the deflation which has manifested in residential real estate will continue to tighten its grip driving equity markets down to levels which most would simply not believe if they had a crystal ball now. Commodities will also be caught in the same relentless downturn. I do not believe there is anything that can be done to stop this. In fact, it is an essential part of the process to clear the financial decks of bad debt and the only way in which economies can get moving again. Getting rid of debt by whatever means is the best policy in a deflation. The earliest loss is the best loss.
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Thoughts

Retha,

Don't worry too much about timeliness with regards to preparations.
Not to say it isn't urgent to do *something*, but you'll never be able to do *everything*.

Overwhelming yourself in the beginning is the best way to turn enthusiasm into a waste of effort.
Identify your needs, shortcomings and project the problems, then address them.

Might look here for a start on how to understand emergencies and prioritize before taking decisive action:
http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/practical-survival-skills-101-understanding-emergencies/54480

It's easy to try and oversimplify the difficult, tangled and often vague demands of preparation.
Don't just "pay down debt and get a gun" - invest in yourself and gain skills.

Also, I think the Daily Paul article is written as a vacation from reality. Your location, for example, matters a lot less than what you do with it.
The premise that "cities will be more dangerous" is true - proportionally so. They're more dangerous now.

Trying to pack up and make a go of it in the country is a great way to find trouble you never expected, aren't familiar with and don't have any experience in dealing with. Plus, you don't have to worry about integrating into a small, tight community that you've probably never interacted with. Those difficulties are just not something the potential rewards of maybe finding a place to stay and farm (a vocation most people have no experience with).

In short, review articles with a few packets of salt, check out the WSID entries and decide what your priorities are, how you can accomplish your goals and what skills you have, lack, need and should find in members of your community.

Cheers,

Aaron

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Retha, I love Dogs' and

Retha, I love Dogs' and Alpha Mike's advice. Worry less about Argentina and try to focus positively instead on the things you can and are doing to be more resilient. Revel in your accomplishments and the sense of peace they give you and how they free you to do more of what you want to do on this planet.There's truly no way to know how this plays out (we are a different country and culture than pretty much any other, for one) and you won't be of any use to yourself or people close to you if you burn all your energy up in worry or create health issues from the stress of these thoughts. (I know this this from personal experience.) Do not spend too much time imagining worst-case scenarios and weighing their likelihood. Look at your life in front of you and find the ways you can make it more self-sufficient and more enjoyable today, tomorrow, next week. I garden like mad, because I get a deep sense of satisfaction from it. I'm not building solar panels or distilling biofuels, because I would just be torturing myself trying to learn that. I do have a decent bike setup and may invest one day in a really good one because I love to bike. (But I also haven't biked much in six months because I had a complete adrenal blowout after a jujitsu class and am slowly rebalancing my metabolism and regaining my health. I have to say, do not underestimate the impact of stressful thinking on your body.)

Good luck,

Sue

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Yikes....
suesullivan wrote:

(But I also haven't biked much in six months because I had a complete adrenal blowout after a jujitsu class and am slowly rebalancing my metabolism and regaining my health.

Sue -

Ouch!!!  I studied Brazilian Jiu Jitsu for 8 years and saw (and experienced) my share of joint injuries and dislocations......forgive me if I'm prying, but how the heck did you get an adrenal blowout (wayward strike to the kidney(s)?) and why didn't you tapout first? 

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Oh, it wasn't a literal blow

Oh, it wasn't a literal blow to the adrenals -- after a month of classes with my daughter, I decided to kick up the workout and do the full warmup run/exercises, instead of hanging on the sidelines with the "grayhairs," (whose ranks I am still unwilling to join : / ) I over-exerted, but not anything that I would have had any trouble with in the past, came home and couldn't climb the stairs for shortness of breath/exhaustion/heart palpitations. Got checked out by my regular doc the following morning, who (figuratively) patted me on the head and said it didn't appear that I was experiencing any cardiac complications and that I probably just started trying to exercise too fast and I should try again but more slowly.  I tried to tell him the feeling of utter, bottom-of-a-black-hole exhaustion was unlike anything I'd ever experienced but he didn't get it. After collapsing similarly a week later after fast-walking for 20 mins, I went to a naturopath who said it was classic adrenal fatigue.
In retrospect, I'd been gradually sliding downhill for years, energy and mental-sharpness-wise, since first having kids, but I'm certain spending two years marinating in fear and worry and hopelessness added many straws to that camel's back.  It's been a ridiculously slow climb back up hill; once a key metabolic system gets out of whack, it starts throwing off  related systems and the whole mess is slow to reboot, but I'm definitely doing much, much better. I am very aware now of how well or poorly I eat, how much sleep I get and the mental stress I put myself under and I have no tolerance for unhealthy choices in those areas right now.
While I still try to keep half-an-eye on the economic situation, if I feel anxiety or despair creeping in, I'm careful to tell myself all the ways things could be tolerably fine (the system could be/has been so far far more resilient than I realize; economies/societies are always expanding and contracting and humans live through such times and still experience lives full of meaning, happiness and satisfaction that have nothing to do with the high standard of living we're all trying to preserve right now, etc.)
All of that is to say that jujitsu itself was not the cause of anything, except that it gave me the venue to push myself physically farther than I should have and now I've finally learned to listen to the messages my body is sending before it completely collapses on me. Slow learner, I am....
I would love to get  back to it eventually. It was *really* energizing and fun!

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ty!

 Thanks y'all for the great words of wisdom!  I actually started prepping a few years ago.  Although I've always been one a little more 'prepped' normally in the general course of things.  I've always kept extra stashes of necessities 'just in case'.  We are about 30 miles NW of Houston on a nice little 10 acre spread.  After the fiasco of hurricane Rita heading our way in 2005...gridlock on all of the roads, store shelves wiped clean....people were crazy!  And we didn't even get hit!  The next year, we installed a generator.  I started buying extra canned goods every time I went to the grocery.  So we were all set when we got hit by hurricane Ike in 2008.  Also in 2008, I started really paying attention to what was going on in the world. Got my head out of the sand so to speak.  Started reading up & educating myself on the ways of the global finance & crisis.

I was thrilled when I found CM's site & the crash course.  (Edit: also read the book!) He & you all have provided a tremendous amount of information to help!  I just love the site!   I think I am closer to Mad Max End of Days than I would like to be.  Maybe if I walk away from the blogs for awhile..that could change.

We have a nice garden, a pretty good food stock including seeds & started my chicken flock with 20 chicks (and should have my first eggs next month!! yay!)  Chickens are alot of work btw, but I absolutely love having them!  Anyway, the next thing on my list is a manual handle/pump for our electric well.  So, if it ever does hit the fan, we are staying put, unless we are forced out.  We do have a few weapons, but I still want to get a shotgun.  And need to build up my medical stuff a little more.  We have paid off our debt (except the house).  And we do have a few things we can fall back on if needed if I am not able to keep my business going.

Most friends & family are oblivious.  They think I've lost my mind, (including my husband)  even though I keep telling them to 'do your homework'  lol  Even if nothing happens...what's it going to hurt to be prepared?  I have been talking with a few neighbors that are like minded in preps.  But most a clueless or are too busy to worry about it.  But I don't give up trying to help steer them in the prep direction. I am looking for a local group now to get the community building on the road!  

I have to stop reading all of the end of the world blogs!  Yes, the stress creeps up on you!  Thanks so much for the encouragement!  I guess I just needed to vent the thought before my head exploded!   OK, probably TMI, but thanks for reading!  

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Welcome, I too got caught up

Welcome,

I too got caught up in the "mad max" end of days trap. I coughed up the red pill for a while because I couldn't take the stress.

At times I think it will be a slow decline simply because how large our economy is compared to the other collapses mentioned like Argentina.

It will be painful for a lot of people. The last two years has already been painful for many many Americans.

Anyway, take a break if u have to, we will be here.

retha wrote:

 Thanks y'all for the great words of wisdom!  ?...

I was thrilled when I found CM's site & the crash course.  (Edit: also read the book!) He & you all have provided a tremendous amount of information to help!  I just love the site!   I think I am closer to Mad Max End of Days than I would like to be.  Maybe if I walk away from the blogs for awhile..that could change.

...

I have to stop reading all of the end of the world blogs!  Yes, the stress creeps up on you!  Thanks so much for the encouragement!  I guess I just needed to vent the thought before my head exploded!   OK, probably TMI, but thanks for reading!  

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More encouragement.....
retha wrote:

I think I am closer to Mad Max End of Days than I would like to be.  Maybe if I walk away from the blogs for awhile..that could change.

retha -

Look on the bright side.  Mad Max isn't the worst scenario.  It could be Cormac McCarthy's "The Road" 

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Retha
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Dogs_In_A_Pile wrote: Look
Dogs_In_A_Pile wrote:

Look on the bright side.  Mad Max isn't the worst scenario.  It could be Cormac McCarthy's "The Road" 

Although, if the nukes head this way......  lol j/k

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This guy nails it with a new

This guy nails it with a new book just out descrbing the money endgame.  Here is his blog:

http://papermoneycollapse.com/2011/09/no-way-out-why-policy-advice-is-fu...

Now let me be very clear that I am convinced that paper money collapse is inevitable. Our present system of elastic money is not only suboptimal it is also unsustainable. As I show in my book through a systematic and fundamental analysis, elastic money must lead to the accumulation of imbalances, to capital misallocations, and to resource mis-pricings, and those must lead, over time, to economic disintegration and chaos.

The present system must end, it will end, it will now certainly end badly and probably soon. As it is inevitable it doesn’t matter what I wish. To wish that this would not happen would be as sensible as to wish that the present summer would not end, and that the days would not get shorter. I don’t wish it and I don’t fear it. The system must go. Good riddance. What I do fear, however, are the political consequences and the societal fall-out from the crisis, and I particularly fear the responses it will provoke from governments and state officials.

Book cover for Paper money Collapse

Out now!

Of course, the fiat money crisis is not a natural catastrophe. It is entirely manmade. It is the direct consequence of political decisions and political action. In particular, it is the inevitable consequence of the decision to abandon a gold-based monetary system, a system of essentially inflexible and apolitical money, and to replace it with entirely elastic and constantly expanding paper money under the control of central banks. It is the direct consequence of the erroneous belief – which, sadly, is still the guiding principle of modern central banking and reflected in ninety percent of the financial commentary in the media– that low interest rates and additional credit are good regardless of whether they are the outcome of true saving and capital accumulation, or simply the outcome of fiat money creation.

I am quite glad that Levingston raised the question of my own personal attitude to what is going on because it gives me the opportunity to clarify my position. His point is also somewhat related to something I encounter more often now that I present my book to various audiences or that I give interviews on its subject matter. I think there often exists an assumption that one cannot simply predict some unpleasant outcome in the field of economics and not offer at least a bit of hope that things may turn out differently, of promising the possibility of a way out that would spare us all the painful consequences of past actions, of decades of misguided policy, of cheap credit and limitless money. There is the unspoken belief that after all my research on the topic I must have some good policy advice up my sleeves. Often people ask me, so what should be done? If what central bankers and politicians are doing presently is, as you say in your book and on your website, counterproductive, what should they do instead? What is the solution? Just as in the case of the Washington Post blog, I suspect that the fact that I speak so little about specific policy reforms leads people to believe that I don’t care about where we are going, or I might even look forward to the disaster.

What should be done

Mises in his library

Ludwig von Mises; photo by mises.org

There is only one solution and that is to stop the printing of money and the artificial suppression of interest rates, to return to hard money, to allow interest rates and market prices to again reflect the true extent of voluntary savings, and to thus allow the liquidation of the accumulated imbalances from previous money expansion. But because we had a four-decade long period of unprecedented fiat money creation globally, these imbalances are now so big that the necessary liquidation would be very painful – too painful for the political class – which got us into this mess in the first place – to ever deem it acceptable. The overstretched banking industry, the overextended asset markets, insolvent governments – all of this is screaming for a cleansing liquidation and recalibration – and has done so for years. A crisis has now become unavoidable. But politicians still think that the power of the state is unlimited, that what they don’t find acceptable will simply not be allowed to occur. Only in the realm of politics is the belief widespread that reality is optional, and reality must simply be made to conform to the wishes of the political elite. Of course, policy cannot create a new reality. What policy does at the moment is try to postpone the inevitable correction ever further. “Not on my watch” is the modus operandi. This will make the final crisis even worse.

I quoted Ludwig von Mises on this on a couple of occasions but I will do it again. In his magnum opus of 1949, Human Action, the grand master of Austrian School economics said:

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

The endgame will be “a final and total catastrophe of the currency system”, and “later” may indeed be soon. Remember, we have been postponing the liquidation for decades and happily piled new debt and new imbalances on top of the old debt and the old imbalances. By not stopping the printing of money and the accumulation of debt and capital misallocations, and by adding to them instead, the policy establishment is making sure that the final crisis will only be worse. This is why I consider it pointless to come up with policy recommendations. What would be the purpose of presenting a detailed plan of converting to a gold standard, which is what should be done? Mainstream economists, politicians and central bankers will either ridicule or ignore it. They still believe that the answer to all these money-induced imbalances is – more money! They are hell-bent on creating a total currency catastrophe. And they will get it.

 

Retha's picture
Retha
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thanks hucklejohn

Kindle is ready!  Starting on it tonight!  Thanks for the info!  

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Regarding debt and additional preps

 If you are worried about paying off bills in the case of an economic collapse, I think having a sizeable stockpile of gold/silver could be just the trick. If hyperinflation takes off and the dollar gets to Zimbabwe-esque levels of ridiculousness (100 trillion dollar bills anyone?) then for a short window you could sell your precious metals for enough to pay off all your debt and pre-pay your homeowner's insurance & taxes for a few years.

Of course, it's a short window because at some point the whole dollar would collapse under too much hyperinflation, much as it did in Zimbabwe. So you would want to pay off your mortgage in inflated dollars BEFORE it gets revalued in a new currency or new gold standard. Also use those hyperinflated precious metal sales to buy as many tangibles as you can while it still can. Everyone else will be attempting the same thing but then again, they probably will have low amounts of dollars considering wages would not be able to hyperinflate in a short period of time like gold could.

I must echo the gun sentiment and beef it up a bit. Have you heard the survivalist mantra "two is one and one is none"? It's a call for redundancy in your systems and your supplies. One gun is none gun. Everyone in your house should have guns. Plural. Did you see the new movie Contagion? If not go watch it. It shows just one disaster scenario, and when a disease stops the food supply system, it's not too long before masked men go door to door with shotguns searching for food. Wouldn't it be such a great irony to have all your well thought out preparations comandeered by one guy with a shotgun, while your shotgun is hanging on the mantle? Once the **** hits the fan, everyone in your house should have a pistol on them at all times minimum. When things start to get dicey or if intruders start coming, that's when it's time to have the shotguns and rifles handy.

Remember, like all this prep stuff but especially relevant to firearms, it's much better to have a gun and not need it then to need a gun and not have it!

Retha's picture
Retha
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fiorgodx wrote:  If you are
fiorgodx wrote:

 If you are worried about paying off bills in the case of an economic collapse, I think having a sizeable stockpile of gold/silver could be just the trick. If hyperinflation takes off and the dollar gets to Zimbabwe-esque levels of ridiculousness (100 trillion dollar bills anyone?) then for a short window you could sell your precious metals for enough to pay off all your debt and pre-pay your homeowner's insurance & taxes for a few years.

Of course, it's a short window because at some point the whole dollar would collapse under too much hyperinflation, much as it did in Zimbabwe. So you would want to pay off your mortgage in inflated dollars BEFORE it gets revalued in a new currency or new gold standard. Also use those hyperinflated precious metal sales to buy as many tangibles as you can while it still can. Everyone else will be attempting the same thing but then again, they probably will have low amounts of dollars considering wages would not be able to hyperinflate in a short period of time like gold could.

I must echo the gun sentiment and beef it up a bit. Have you heard the survivalist mantra "two is one and one is none"? It's a call for redundancy in your systems and your supplies. One gun is none gun. Everyone in your house should have guns. Plural. Did you see the new movie Contagion? If not go watch it. It shows just one disaster scenario, and when a disease stops the food supply system, it's not too long before masked men go door to door with shotguns searching for food. Wouldn't it be such a great irony to have all your well thought out preparations comandeered by one guy with a shotgun, while your shotgun is hanging on the mantle? Once the **** hits the fan, everyone in your house should have a pistol on them at all times minimum. When things start to get dicey or if intruders start coming, that's when it's time to have the shotguns and rifles handy.

Remember, like all this prep stuff but especially relevant to firearms, it's much better to have a gun and not need it then to need a gun and not have it!

Thank you! Good idea on the PMs!  We have a rifle and a couple of pistols.  But we do need more...on my list!  

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DFT

There's an ongoing discussion on firearms, if you're interested, and I don't think we've really broached the issue of how many is adaquate, what types or some other specifics that seem to be of interest here:

http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/definitive-firearms-thread/12654

It'd be nice to hear from you both on the subject.

Cheers,

Aaron

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BLET threatening to strike

  Hubby came home and said to pray because the BLET  was threatening to go on strike on Oct. 8 or 9th .   The railroad moves so much and could possibly put a kink in everything .     Just a heads up to make sure you all are still working on your preps .

 

 FM

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fiorgodx wrote: I must
fiorgodx wrote:

 

I must echo the gun sentiment and beef it up a bit. Have you heard the survivalist mantra "two is one and one is none"? It's a call for redundancy in your systems and your supplies. One gun is none gun. Everyone in your house should have guns. Plural. Did you see the new movie Contagion? If not go watch it. It shows just one disaster scenario, and when a disease stops the food supply system, it's not too long before masked men go door to door with shotguns searching for food. Wouldn't it be such a great irony to have all your well thought out preparations comandeered by one guy with a shotgun, while your shotgun is hanging on the mantle? Once the **** hits the fan, everyone in your house should have a pistol on them at all times minimum. When things start to get dicey or if intruders start coming, that's when it's time to have the shotguns and rifles handy.

Remember, like all this prep stuff but especially relevant to firearms, it's much better to have a gun and not need it then to need a gun and not have it!

So true.  There are many very bad people in the world.  In America we seem to breed them.  I am not sure why we have so many - but we do.  A large percentage of them are in cities.  If there is a financial emergency the massive logistical systems required to support cities may well be impaired.  If that happens cities will become uninhabitable in short order.  If the logistical systems are impaired by say 50% people will be leaving in 2 weeks.  At that point untold thousands of people will just start leaving cities.  Many of them will be bad people.  They will be desperate and will to do terrible things in the name of survival.  They will organize into gangs.  These gangs will take by force whatever they happen upon and want.  Food, gas, generators, guns, ammo, good looking females, precious metals, vehicles, you name it, will all become valuable and subject to being taken.  It is important for people to be prepared for this possibility.  It is like car insurance.  You buy car insurance but you don't hope for a crash, you buy it in case there is a crash.  You better have guns and ammo and know how to use them.

 

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