The Short Story of How We Lose

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ashvinp's picture
ashvinp
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 21 2010
Posts: 412
The Short Story of How We Lose

A short story introducing the concept of "myopic loss aversion" with regards to financial investment decisions (pain from loss is much greater than pleasure from winning the same amount), and applying this concept to the systematic losses that are rapidly accumulating in American society since 2007-8.

Quote:

A curious thing happened to a middle-aged Frenchman in Monte Carlo last year. He had unexpectedly received a year-end bonus of 10,000 from his employer, and decided to visit Le Grand Casino for a weekend, where he could relax and gamble with his new found wealth. Since his wife and daughters were visiting his stepmother that weekend, he would be able to focus entirely on making some money. His first night was judiciously spent at the Roulette tables, where his sharp instincts and calculated patience presumably allowed him to double his allotted wealth in just five hours. It was an excellent night for the man, who was now 10,000 richer, and he spent the next afternoon lounging in a cabana at the hotel's pool.

That night, the man locked away the initial 10,000 in his room's safe and took the rest back down to the casino floor, where he quickly locked up a seat at his favorite Roulette table from the night before. His playing strategy remained the same as always - place a minimum bet on two out of three columns, switching one column each time he won a bet, and sitting out one roll each time he lost - no deviations from the strategy whatsoever. After a series of wild fluctuations in his bankroll, the man was left with only two more bets, and he decided to place them both on black. The tiny steel ball deftly rolled around the wheel for several revolutions and tensely bounced between a few numbered slots before finally choosing to settle on number 21 - red.

The man quietly finished his glass of red wine, shuffled up to his room and lay awake in bed. He couldn't help feeling extremely frustrated about the events of that evening. Frustrated with the insidious game of roulette, with his own careless betting decisions, with his "bad luck", with the other players who had won, with the man spinning the little steel ball, with the tiny ball itself. He kept replaying the spins in his mind, fantasizing about the money he would still have in his pocket if he had just made a few different decisions.  What especially haunted him was the would-be expression on his wife's face when he unexpectedly brought home 20,000. The 10,000 bonus would surely lift her into a state of pleasant surprise, but the man speculated that, if he had managed to double that bonus in just two short days at the casino, her pleasant surprise would be magnified ten-fold into a state of blushing pride .

Full piece at TAE - http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2011/02/february-14-2011-short-sto...

markf57's picture
markf57
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 25 2008
Posts: 62
Re: The Short Story of How We Lose

Yogi Berra said it best. "Losing feels worse than winning feels good."

 

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