Short Goldman?

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strabes's picture
strabes
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Short Goldman?

I posted a while ago that I think Goldman will be broken up as we get near the bottom of the collapse in order to offer up a sacrifice to the masses who haven't even begun to channel their rage against this firm and Wall St in general.  I figured Jamie Dimon was being puffed up now so he could be the next Treasury Secretary, aka mafia don, and his job would be to spin Goldman as the symbol of everything wrong about corporate greed and it would be dismantled under his reign (keeps the focus away from the most irresponsibly leveraged bank--JPM Chase--the really important institution behind the goals of the global bankers).  After all, firms are just front organizations for real people.  So those people can have their profits parked in other assets and be hanging out at their private cabana in the tropics while watching the impersonal corporate entity wither away--its common stock is mostly owned by little people anyway.  

But I'm now thinking there's a possibility the next downdraft in the market itself will take care of the destruction of Goldman so it won't need to be forcefully broken up by the government.  As EWI just pointed out, Goldman stock has been run up to pre crash levels.  It's now setup for a galactic fall.

Any thoughts on shorting this stock?  Any traders have charts that indicate otherwise?  I figure Goldman's potential fall is bigger than market indices but perhaps counterparty risk is too high, or risk of government nulling shorts on "systemic" companies, or whatever other risk there is?  

rowmat's picture
rowmat
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Re: Short Goldman?

At some point I'm sure a sacrificial lamb will be offered up to the dumbed down masses as a token appeasement.

Then everyone will go home feeling satisfied  until the next big crunch comes.

It's the same for presidents and prime ministers.

They are offered up as a new symbol of change for the better and the voters believe the lies for a while as the corruption continues behind the curtain.

Then as the voters realise they have been scammed (yet again) the leader is sacrificed at the next election, the masses vote for another new messiah and the cycle just repeats.

  1. Promise
  2. Hope
  3. Disappointment
  4. Sacrifice

Yada, yada, yada...

JAG's picture
JAG
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Re: Short Goldman?

I love the idea of shorting those                 (insert derogatory adjective here), but I'm figuring GS will make big bucks off the coming crash and bailout #2. Knowing those guys, they will short their own stock and make a killing from their killing, in which case it might be a good trade LOL.

Hey, That gives me a good idea:

We should start a global investor movement to naked short GS and JPM into the dirt.

Sorry for the rant....Jeff

npwebb's picture
npwebb
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Re: Short Goldman?

My $0.02

Perhaps GS will be offered up as a scape goat sometime in the future but for now they serve as an important player for the WH's/FED's/UST interaction with the markets.

docmims's picture
docmims
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Re: Short Goldman?
JAG wrote:

I love the idea of shorting those                 (insert derogatory adjective here), but I'm figuring GS will make big bucks off the coming crash and bailout #2. Knowing those guys, they will short their own stock and make a killing from their killing, in which case it might be a good trade LOL.

Hey, That gives me a good idea:

We should start a global investor movement to naked short GS and JPM into the dirt.

Sorry for the rant....Jeff

Didn't the SEC pass a regulation that you couldn't naked short GS and JPM(specificly) during the initial banking crisis? is this rule still in effect?  I thought I saw that in the Rolling Stone article.

thanks

Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
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Posts: 562
Re: Short Goldman?

I wouldnt short GS right now. This had a recent peak of 192. Then fell to below 170 this week and is now set to rise. GS had a all-time peak of 235 and with Bear, Lehman extincted and Merrill Lynch weakened, GS gets to dominate wall street's investment banking world and thus will probably set all time highs breaking 235. Shorting at this point could risk you getting caught in a short squeeze.

In the event of a selloff longer term support on the downside is 158. After that 137.

 If anything buy the dips!

Disclosure: im long the vampire squid

plantguy90's picture
plantguy90
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Posts: 271
Re: Short Goldman?

Wow, I think shorting GS takes a much bigger set than I have, with so many operatives in govt, I just dont see how they could get picked as the lucky sacrifice.   People have options and stock, ya know...  I think a good "outsider" is more of a HSBC... ?  They are a bullion bank, without the contacts...

HawkeyeFan's picture
HawkeyeFan
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Posts: 3
Re: Short Goldman?

They run the Government and the Treasury with deep involvement within the Fed.  There is no way they get sacrificed.  The government would sacrifice our kids before that happens.  IMHO

Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
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Posts: 562
Re: Short Goldman?

So join me in buying some GS?

HawkeyeFan's picture
HawkeyeFan
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Re: Short Goldman?

That whole place stinks with everything that is ruining our country so I can't personally handle having to hope they do well if I went long on them.  Sorry......

strabes's picture
strabes
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Posts: 1032
Re: Short Goldman?

Bear, are your indicators pointing to a renewed market rally after the burp over the last several days?  

Once the next wave down starts, I would expect Goldman to crash more than the indices simply given the higher beta and the false inflation of the financial sector.  

As far as survival of the firm, you guys could very well be right, but a firm like HSBC wouldn't be a useful sacrifice because nobody knows the name. The press has now pushed the Goldman name into the mass market and it's associated with supreme greed and government cronyism. That's a perfect setup to protect the Rockefeller bank, JPM Chase, which is the one with long-term strategic importance in the global banker plan. Goldman had its purpose--monetize US debt and create gambling casinos in important markets--but I think the need for that is largely over (except cap-and-trade).  As the globalists sacrifice the Fed to bring us into the global bank, I think a firm like Goldman is no longer needed to launder the Fed's crap.

 

Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
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Posts: 562
Re: Short Goldman?

 

Bear, are your indicators pointing to a renewed market rally after the burp over the last several days?  

Oct 2nd: SPX 1025

Sept 2nd: 994

Recent low of 1036. SPX now at 1066 and will continue to blow harder. Watch 1100 get smashed. GS will follow the SPX and fly higher. Target price of 210.

3-5 month forecast. Inventory rebuilding will increase production numbers. Also, economy to bounce of the depressed levels of 2009. Mortgage market supported by fake accounting and money printing. Expect job losses to continue to slow and possibly even see positive job growth by 1st qtr 2010. Longer term im more bearish then ever.

JAG's picture
JAG
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Posts: 2492
Re: Short Goldman?

Strabes,

I read the piece on GS by EWI (its "Free Week" at EWI) and they make a pretty good argument for shorting GS.

It would be a bold move type of trade, as GS has only lost money on three days in the last half year, but one that might pay handsomely. I remember thinking at the beginning of the year, when the price of GS was way down, "who in their right mind would buy this stock?" Now we are looking at the opposite of that situation when I have to ask myself "who in their right mind would short GS stock?" 

Goldman Sachs may look invincible now, but one day we might be saying "Goldman Sachs only made money on three days in the last half year".

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