Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar

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Davos's picture
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Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar

Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar

Is gold in a bubble?

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar

Davos, great analogy!  Easy to understand, and right on the mark.  Love it!

+1

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar

Hi Davos,

I think it might be a mistake to assume that the general public must be involved in a market for a bubble to occur. I know of no one in my personal life that owned tech stocks in the late nineties. I knew many people that owned stocks, but none of them owned tech stocks. Also, nobody that I knew personally, bought or sold real estate in an effort to profit from the bubble in that market. Most of the "bubble" in the real estate market was in selected locations along the coasts. That leaves a lot of people who didn't participate in the bubble throughout the country.

I would also argue that a healthy portion of the "wall of liquidity" that has recently hit all the markets has found its way into the gold market as well. How ironic? That must piss off the central bankers.

Also, I have these concerns:

  • It seems like every gold article that I see lately is projecting gold in the 4-5K range.  Forecasts like these are very similar to the climate of the Nasdaq in the late nineties, and of select cities along the coasts in the mid-2000's.
  • AM radio and late night TV are flooded with advertisements to buy and sell gold.
  • You can even buy gold from vending machines in German airports.

The one thing that makes a bubble is the unshakeable belief among market participants that the particular asset can only go higher in price. I think the gold market has that in spades right now. 

I'm sure I will be the lone dissenting voice on this....but thats my 2 cents.

All the best...Jeff

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar

Hello Jeff: You may be spot on. What I wrote are just my beliefs----I don't profess to have all the answers, time will tell, take care

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar

Davos,

Congrats on publishing this article to FSN. Way to go!

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar
JAG wrote:

Davos,

Congrats on publishing this article to FSN. Way to go!

Thank you

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar

Nice article Davos.  It nails it.

 

Jeff,

OK, what cave were you off meditating in when the tech boom hit?;-)  Contrary to your experience, I hardly ran into anyone under 60 who wasn't into tech stocks.

On the gold bubble issue, all the articles about the projected high gold prices has me a bit concerned too but, for the life of me, other than farmland, timberland, and cash, there's nothing else that I trust to put my money into.  Right now, due to the liquidity issues with land and the erosion of value in cash, I trust PMs more than anything else.  Until I can see any realistic way out of this catastrophe (which I just can't) and any substantive change in the public attitude with regards to PM purchases (which I haven't yet), I'm staying in PMs.  There's a ton of talk about gold but among the many folks I know who are reasonably savvy investors, very, very few have gotten into PMs.     

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar

Good writing Davos,

It's always great when the writer can visualize the message and you sure did that.

Unfortunately, we are flying into a storm and government, banks and the corporate media have "gained down" our forward observation.  Not that it would matter that much as they control the financial weather and can abruptly change the conditions.

I think we have to ask ourselves why the readings are "gained down."  Misinformation will cost many a large portion of their savings or worse.  If you had to guess, do you think that this from incompetence or an an intended crash?

Larry

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar
DrKrbyLuv wrote:

If you had to guess, do you think that this from incompetence or an an intended crash?

Larry

Thank you for the kind words. 

I honestly don't know and would have a 50% chance of getting that one right. I remember years ago hearing a clip on NPR (don't worry I read Drudge also and try to stay in the middle) about New Orleans and that any Cat 3-5 would wipe it out. Then I watched the government botch, re-botch, and botch over anything and everything they did with Katrina.

Something tells me that was a dry run preview for what we are about to see - only this time it will be an economic Katrina and on a global scale.

If I had to pick a or b - and let me digress for a second, I'm almost leaning towards c (corporate controls everything and only does what is in their best interest and if Jamie D Lucifer becomes the treasurer next week then that will be confirmed.

Anyway if I had to guess a or b I'd say that like the union I served as vice chairman for whenever you get a group of smart people together they collectively act as stupid as a bag of rocks. Politics, self interest and egos all assembled without any guiding principles.

Take care

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar

Great writing, Davos. I love the aviation analogies. As an investor/trader, I frequently find that aviation training and the disciplined thinking about how to deal with extraordinary events helps a lot.

The problem here is that all the pilots are used to all the regular and normal procedures. Is the coming storm an Airmet or a SIGMET? Actually, it's neither. It's more like declaring SCATANA. The problem is that even though SCATANA is defined in the PCG, nobody knows what it really means or the extraordinary connotation of significance it carries, because it's something that never happens in real life, mostly. The fact is, it's happening now.

BTW, both pilots and controllers are so ignorant of SCATANA procedures that it was never officially declared during 9/11, even though that's exactly the sort of scenario it was designed for. But when something happens that is so outside the norm that nobody can believe it, they all freeze up and don't know what to do. Even when a specific procedure is in place (i.e. SCATANA) for a specific scenario, if that scenario had never occurred in the lifetimes of either the pilots or controllers in the system at the time of the event, the value of the procedure is lost. In contrast, everyone knows what a SIGMET is but it's not adequate to describe the gravity of a really extreme situation.

In short, human beings are designed to deal with normal and abnormal situations, but not extraordinary situations. When the extraordinary occurs, such as now, humans just aren't designed to cope.

Erik

 

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar
ErikTownsend wrote:

Great writing, Davos. I love the aviation analogies. As an investor/trader, I frequently find that aviation training and the disciplined thinking about how to deal with extraordinary events helps a lot.

The problem here is that all the pilots are used to all the regular and normal procedures. Is the coming storm an Airmet or a SIGMET? Actually, it's neither. It's more like declaring SCATANA. The problem is that even though SCATANA is defined in the PCG, nobody knows what it really means or the extraordinary connotation of significance it carries, because it's something that never happens in real life, mostly. The fact is, it's happening now.

BTW, both pilots and controllers are so ignorant of SCATANA procedures that it was never officially declared during 9/11, even though that's exactly the sort of scenario it was designed for. But when something happens that is so outside the norm that nobody can believe it, they all freeze up and don't know what to do. Even when a specific procedure is in place (i.e. SCATANA) for a specific scenario, if that scenario had never occurred in the lifetimes of either the pilots or controllers in the system at the time of the event, the value of the procedure is lost. In contrast, everyone knows what a SIGMET is but it's not adequate to describe the gravity of a really extreme situation.

In short, human beings are designed to deal with normal and abnormal situations, but not extraordinary situations. When the extraordinary occurs, such as now, humans just aren't designed to cope.

Erik

 

Hello Erik: Thank you for the kind words. I totally agree with what you say. I think the Marine mentality my ex- building partner had "Survive in Chaos" will be necessary for the coming times. And for the record, I have 15,000 hours and had never heard of a SCATANA until today. Somehow I think I'm going to regret not living where you live!!! I think you are a lot more ahead of the power curve than I am. Scary.

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar
ao wrote:

Jeff,

OK, what cave were you off meditating in when the tech boom hit?;-)  Contrary to your experience, I hardly ran into anyone under 60 who wasn't into tech stocks.

LOL!

Here I am back in 1999...

"What is the sound of a bubble bursting?"

Needless to say, the old geezers that taught me how to invest had seen a bubble or two in their time, so I was strictly warned not to partake of the forbidden bubble fruit. Advice that I didn't totally appreciate until 2002. 

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar

Davos,

It doesn't surprise me at all that you never heard of SCATANA. I would guess optimistically that 1% of pilots even know the term. It's not on any test, and sadly, most pilots only study the stuff on the tests.

For the record, SCATANA = Strategic Control of Air Traffic and Air Navigation Aids. The procedures were developed duiring the Cold War. The idea was that if the Soviets were going to nuke New York City, we'd prefer that they not be able to use the Kennedy VOR to navigate their ICBMs. Of course the procedures were developed way before GPS. So the Military has the authority to declare SCATANA, shut down NAVAIDs, and then decide at their own discretion how much assistance they can give to civilian aircraft (i.e. radar vectors) without unduly compromising national security.

The ironic (to me) part is that zillions of tax dollars went into designing the SCATANA procedures - there are rules for how and when the military can declare SCATANA, and what civilian pilots are expected to do when they are advised by ATC that SCATANA has been declared. But the first and only time that it made sense to declare SCATANA was 9/11. Nobody ever thought to actually do so, because it's one of those trivia things that isn't on the tests and only serious regulation geeks even know about. It was the legal and appropriate way for the military to take over and shut down the airspace on 9/11, but they never did it. Instead, the airspace was "closed" through a completely illegal and unauthorized process because nobody was ready to even consider that there was a procedure in place for what was going on around them. Hence my comments about humans being ill-suited to dealing with truly extraordinary situations.

Another interesting procedure that is well known to military but not civilian pilots is MARSA, or Military Assumes Responsibility of Separation of Aircraft. Any military pilot or controller can declare MARSA at any time, and the separation rules instantly change. There are specific expectations of civilian pilots when MARSA is in effect. But there are no test questions about MARSA on civilian aviation exams, so for the most part civilian pilots have no idea what it is. In practice, MARSA is frequently used by military pilots to relax ATC separation minima between MILITARY aircraft (i.e. the pilots who actually know what the term means), but is almost never used in encounters with civilian aircraft because the civilian pilots wouldn't know what do do if they were advised MARSA had been declared. The exception to that is drug-related interceptions. When a DEA airplane intercepts a civilian airplane, the military pilot declares MARSA first, which lets the controller off the hook for not maintaining separation between the intercepting and intercepted aircraft.

It's shocking how the most important stuff is never even taught to pilots because everyone assumes it would never actually happen in real life. Until it does. Then the procedures are ignored because nobody remembers (or ever knew) what they were.

Erik

p.s. Trivia question for the pilots in the audience: What does the reserved callsign FLYNET signify?

 

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar
ErikTownsend wrote:

p.s. Trivia question for the pilots in the audience: What does the reserved callsign FLYNET signify?

Flight prioritization for NEST response.

Where do I pick up my kewpie doll?

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar

Holy sh**t, Dogs. I used that as a "nobody ever gets this one" question on orals when I was a check airman, and nobody ever got it right once.

So I gotta ask, did you google it and find the reference in the 7110.65, or did you actually know the answer? I'm shocked...

Erik

 

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar
ErikTownsend wrote:

For the record, SCATANA = Strategic Control of Air Traffic and Air Navigation Aids. The procedures were developed duiring the Cold War. The idea was that if the Soviets were going to nuke New York City, we'd prefer that they not be able to use the Kennedy VOR to navigate their ICBMs. Of course the procedures were developed way before GPS. So the Military has the authority to declare SCATANA, shut down NAVAIDs, and then decide at their own discretion how much assistance they can give to civilian aircraft (i.e. radar vectors) without unduly compromising national security.

To add to the SCATANA mini-wiki growing here.  It was more of an offensive measure than anything else.  Back in the halcyon days of the Cold War, our war plan relied heavily on long range strategic bombers, the B52G and B-52H models.  The air wing was on strip alert and in the event of a detected incoming strike the bombers would take off and generate to their holding patterns prior to receiving message traffic directing them to their launch points (if carrying cruise missiles) or corridors for bomb runs for retarded air-burst or laydown strikes on whatever it was they were supposed to hit.  SCATANA was critical in establishing MITO - Minimum Interval for Take Off.  The bombers would space their takeoffs as close as possible to ensure all the bombers got off the ground and into their SCATANA corridors before a NUDET could catch them on the ground.  Some generations actually had the Buffs taking off in the jet wash of the aircraft in front of them.  Pretty impressive display if you were lucky enough to see a drill.

Then we decided to put SLBMs on submarines and created the only survivable leg of the Triad and the bomber leg began it's slide into obselescence.  (I think I spelled that right).

Minor correction on the ICBM targeting issue you stated above - the old Soviet birds were inertially guided and did not rely on external inputs for mid-course guidance to target DGZs.  (Desired Ground Zero).  They were typically "spun up" and erected on a stable star reference point and then utilized accelerometer inputs for corrections in the post boost, exoatmospheric and re-entry portions of the flight.  Upon re-entry you are looking at speeds on the order of 7-15 km/second for the re-entry vehicle and/or warhead and back then there just wasn't anything capable of processing external targeting inputs without introducing huge errors into where the warhead was going to impact.  They had enough problems with their weapon system CEPs anyway without having to rely upon external sources they had no control over.

Just so you know........

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar
ErikTownsend wrote:

Holy sh**t, Dogs. I used that as a "nobody ever gets this one" question on orals when I was a check airman, and nobody ever got it right once.

So I gotta ask, did you google it and find the reference in the 7110.65, or did you actually know the answer? I'm shocked...

Erik

No googling for me.  I spent four years stationed at United States Strategic Command in Omaha as a research analyst doing a lot of work on stockpile life cycle issues and testing (among other thingsSealed).  We had to keep the databases current to make sure DOE, DoD and NEST had what they needed for an EMPTY QUIVER or BROKEN ARROW event.

My last tour before I retired from the Navy was serving as the US Submarine Force Strategic Weapons Plans and Policy Director for the US Submarine Force HQ in Norfolk.

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar

Flynet I have actually heard. When I was a check airman for an airline I had to give an ex b-52 driver a check ride. What a joke. He actually showed me how to do aerobatics --- IMC. Another b-52 driver got us clearance to do stop and goes at Griffis Air Force Base near Utica/syracuse where I was domiciled.

But Erik: If you want to get right down to it my next article I'm pining away at now is "Bernoulli's Law is to Newton's Third Law as Keynesian Economics is to Austrian Economics."

My hunch is that you and I both gave instruction to and checkrides to folks while under the impression that Bernoulli's law makes lift? Maybe not, I can tell you have more grey matter than me Yell as proven by where you live and where I'm now stuck! Anyway when I was 5 my brother took me to the airport while baby sitting to practice his approaches and driving home I stuck my hand out the car window and said "I know what makes planes fly." (Newton's Third Law reaction/equal and opposite reaction." Man, when I got home I got the blackboard lecture, he was graduating Dowlling College's Aviation Program suma cum laude and I at age 5 bought the Bernoulli thing that the FAA taught and tested on and probably still does.

Totally bogus. Bernoulli is 2% of it. The Coanda Effect and Newton is what makes 'em fly. My son and I have built a little wind tunnel and are messing around with this. 

The bottom line: I think a LOT of what is known isn't. Economics or aviation. Probably a lot of other things as well. One reason I like computers and programming.

Take care

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar

Nice touch Davos....Gee & I thought the DGZ was the gold short.....live & learnCool.

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar

Davos, I love the theme and can't wait to see the next piece.

BTW, the only time I ever flunked a checkride was when I tried a little too hard to explain to an FAA POI why he and FAA were both wrong about Bernouli. Note to self: Insecure burocrats with the authority to pull your ticket without cause are always right. Period.

Erik

 

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar
JAG wrote:

Here I am back in 1999...

ROTFLMAO!  Thanks Jeff.  You gave me my laugh for the day (and a new screensaver).  I wonder what the red "graffiti" is above the entrance?  Signs for the men's and ladies' rooms?

Maybe I've been looking at this all wrong.  I've been planning to build an energy efficient/independent home in the next 5 years.  Maybe I should be looking into a cave.  Low maintenance, stable temperature, resistant to just about everything from bullets, to meteor showers, to solar flares, to nuclear blasts, etc. and should have low property taxes.  Biblical end times prophecies talk about fleeing to the mountains and the caves.   Hmmm ....   Might have to start checking with my realtor for the nearest cave on the market.

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar
ao wrote:
JAG wrote:

Here I am back in 1999...

ROTFLMAO!  Thanks Jeff.  You gave me my laugh for the day (and a new screensaver).  I wonder what the red "graffiti" is above the entrance?  

On the left the red graffiti reads

"The next 20 years..."

And on the right it reads

"...will be nothing like the last 20 years."

Although my sanskrit is a little rusty...

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar
ao wrote:
JAG wrote:

Here I am back in 1999...

ROTFLMAO!  Thanks Jeff.  You gave me my laugh for the day (and a new screensaver).  I wonder what the red "graffiti" is above the entrance?  Signs for the men's and ladies' rooms?

Maybe I've been looking at this all wrong.  I've been planning to build an energy efficient/independent home in the next 5 years.  Maybe I should be looking into a cave.  Low maintenance, stable temperature, resistant to just about everything from bullets, to meteor showers, to solar flares, to nuclear blasts, etc. and should have low property taxes.  Biblical end times prophecies talk about fleeing to the mountains and the caves.   Hmmm ....   Might have to start checking with my realtor for the nearest cave on the market.

 

Here you go!  I remembered seeing this last spring, although it seems as though the owners secured their financing.

 

http://www.zillow.com/blog/cave-house-for-sale-in-festus-mo/2009/02/23/

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar
SagerXX wrote:

On the left the red graffiti reads

"The next 20 years..."

And on the right it reads

"...will be nothing like the last 20 years."

Although my sanskrit is a little rusty...

LOL.  So apropos.  Perhaps we should add Neanderthal studies to our preparedness training.

 

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Re: Severe Financial Weather Avoidance Radar
scbissler wrote:

Here you go!  I remembered seeing this last spring, although it seems as though the owners secured their financing.

http://www.zillow.com/blog/cave-house-for-sale-in-festus-mo/2009/02/23/

I likes it.  Sold to the hairy guy with the big jaw wearing the animal skin and carrying the club!

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