Recession is over, say 'experts'

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machinehead's picture
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Mar 18 2008
Posts: 1077
Recession is over, say 'experts'

Today -- 15 months after the fact -- the NBER's wise guys said the recession ended in June 2009.

Which illustrates how silly it is to have a committee of 'economists' decide such matters on a discretionary basis. I favor having the NBER name any combination of economic time series they like, and provide an algorithm to evaluate whether it is in 'recession' or 'growth' mode. Then they can be replaced by a spreadsheet that you and I can run.

The reason this isn't done is because recession designations are ... p-p-p-p-political. This point was illustrated when Lyndon Johnson leaned on the Commerce Department to tamper with GDP statistics to 'avoid recession' in 1966. But you can go back to all the other economic series from that time, and see the footprints of the 'phantom recession' which the NBER claims never existed.

To this day the myth persists of the 1960s having been an 'uninterrupted decade of economic growth' -- it's just another government lie.

Arthur Vibert's picture
Arthur Vibert
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: May 16 2008
Posts: 116
Re: Recession is over, say 'experts'

I just want to live in the same place as the NBER economists, because out here in the real world the recession is still alive and kicking.


dshields's picture
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 24 2009
Posts: 599
Re: Recession is over, say 'experts'

recession may well be the new normal for some time to come.  there is a lot of data to support that.


yobob1's picture
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 20 2009
Posts: 132
Re: Recession is over, say 'experts'

And the stock market rallies on the news - 15 months after the "fact".  Now that's lag I can beleive in. Wink

investorzzo's picture
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 7 2008
Posts: 1182
Re: Recession is over, say 'experts'

Hell!, I'm still waiting for them to admit were in a Depression.........

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