RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

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docmims's picture
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RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

 

Just a fun thread on guessing what is coming soon.  Whether as mundane and boring as a correction in the DOW or as exciting as an Israeli attack on Iran or maybe a Chinese takeover of Taiwan.

My guess is just an unwinding of commercial real estate derivatives leading to another banking crisis with bailout and a 5000 pt correction in the DOW over the next 3mos.

 

A penny of fiat currency for you thoughts.  Extra penny if it's funny/sarcastic.Wink

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Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

Wall street journal just reported the CIT declared Chapter 11 bankruptcy one hour ago at 6PM eastern today (Sunday).  Is this the next Lehman?

 

wsj.com

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Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming
docmims wrote:

...  Is this the next Lehman?

If Goldman Sachs can make out sh*tload of $$$$ out of it... of course it is!

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Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

A penny of fiat currency for you thoughts.  Extra penny if it's funny/sarcastic.Wink

 

 

A penny is more than fiat its a reasonable piece o'copper

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Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

A penny of fiat currency for you thoughts.  Extra penny if it's funny/sarcastic.Wink

 

 

A penny is more than fiat its a reasonable piece o'copper

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Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming
robie robinson wrote:

A penny of fiat currency for you thoughts.  Extra penny if it's funny/sarcastic.Wink

 

 

A penny is more than fiat its a reasonable piece o'copper

actually since 1982 a penny is mostly zinc, but my penny offer is in paperSmile

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Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming
  • The second leg down in the markets is coming. A retest of the March lows.
  • The dollar is going to rally 30%+ in value.
  • Oil is headed for $30-40/brl range.
  • Silver is headed to under $5/oz.
  • Spot Gold is an unknown at this point.
  • Paper gold and gold miners will sell off initially, but be quick to recover.
  • Everything that you feared to invest in will prosper. Everything that you thought was a safe investment will tank.

The Gov/Fed needs a reason to start Round 2 of inflationary policy, this will be it.

My deflation adjusted 2 cents (worth a buck twenty when this is over)

 

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Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

I just can't imagine that we are going to go through last year's deleveraging event all over again, and that everything will play out this time like it did the last time. I know that everything has been trading in lockstep, but with all of the rumblings about our dollar and printing and budget deficits, I just can't get myself to believe that every asset class in every country will all move down together, again.

And that's my inflation adjusted .02 (worth $2,222,222,22.02 when this is over)

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Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

I like JAG's prediction, but JoeManc wins the inflation adjusted 2c battle. Smile

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Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming
joemanc wrote:

And that's my inflation adjusted .02 (worth $2,222,222,22.02 when this is over)

LOL! Too funny Joe.

I think it will play out the same because it really never ended. Everything moved in lockstep fashion up, and then down, and then up again. This is the hallmark of a credit market bubble, not an asset bubble.

Spot Gold is the wild card IMO. Will it hold its purchasing power or will it sell off initially with the paper gold/gold miner ETFs?

I think its going to hold, too much uncertainty and fear headed our way. 

Just a guess.

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Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

I love this site!  You guys and gals make my day because as bad as things may be/get you can add the appropriate humor to carry the day. Thanks Chris for a well timed bit of research and comment.

Coop

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Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

 Interesting theory Jag...

 an  "everything bubble.." all inflating, all popping together.. as liquidity ebbs and flows.. ?

 sort of an economic hokey cokey..  

 

  You put your whole self in, your whole self out
   In out, in out, you shake it all about
   You do the Hokey Cokey and you turn around
   That's what it's all about

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EMP Strike

My apologies Docmimis, I reread your original topic and I realize now that you weren't looking for market commentary.

So here is my guess as to an exogenous market event thats coming:

An EMP strike to the US is going to take out the electrical grid, and all solid state electronics. This means:

  • 3000 aircraft will fall from the sky.
  • 95% of all vehicles will stop running.
  • Massive water, food, and medication shortages.
  • Riots, hoarding, and unspeakable acts of violence.
  • The US will be ripe for an invasion.

Oh wait a minute, I have been digesting the book One Second After by William R. Forstchen and perhaps this has clouded my judgment.

Do I still get the extra fiat penny?

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Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

No pennies for nuclear strikes Frown

 

 

Edit: i've reconsidered and if the nuke it the fed maybe it would be worth the penny.....

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Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

 

 Ok.. here's mine..

 Fed decides to raise it's game... sets interest rates at 0.25 + 1.75 i

 balances now complex, but only real part can be withdrawn.. at least until the blue i$ notes can be printed,

 spreadsheets go haywire in what becomes known as the great Y2K9 event..

 math graduates are commanding unheard of salaries.

 

 

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docmims
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Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming
plato1965 wrote:

  Ok.. here's mine..

 Fed decides to raise it's game... sets interest rates at 0.25 + 1.75 i

 balances now complex, but only real part can be withdrawn.. at least until the blue i$ notes can be printed,

 spreadsheets go haywire in what becomes known as the great Y2K9 event..

 math graduates are commanding unheard of salaries. 

I think the notes should be red, white and blue and sold on the home shopping network (with a free colorful derivative certificate thrown in as a bonus!!)

If you act now we sell you one for half price and throw in a  picture of a barrel of oil ABSOLUTELY FREE!!Cool

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Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

 

Its like a great big tidal wave of sh*t is coming our way, and we have just broken the last paddle.

 

 

 

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Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

Ok so the IMF distributes 3 billion in SDR's to India a few weeks ago.  These SDRs consist of a basket of currency consisting of dollars, euros, yen and sterling and are ostensibly a replacement for the dollar.  Everybody with me so far?

Yesterday India turns around and buys 6 billion round numbers of gold from the IMF using their allocation of SDR's.  Truth is stranger than fiction !!

India apparently said no to paper:   WE DON'T NEED NO STEENKIN' SDR'S!!

Laughing

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