Question for the defaltion camp

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plantguy90's picture
plantguy90
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 27 2009
Posts: 271
Question for the defaltion camp

A question came up this morning as I was thinking about finance to take my mind off chores.  Ok, its fairly agreed that the USG numbers are massaged to put it nicely.  So the next question is: How then, will the USG then alert us or admit when we are in an inflationary trend?  Its almost like firefighters saying "there is no fire" while a blaze smoulders, so that by the time it blows up into a big problem, its a bit hard to put down. 

plantguy90's picture
plantguy90
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 27 2009
Posts: 271
Re: Question for the defaltion camp

Hey can someone fix my deflation typo in the title and remove this message?  thanks...

strabes's picture
strabes
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 7 2009
Posts: 1032
Re: Question for the defaltion camp

Hi plantguy, I suggest the market will tell you, not government.  We all agree the govt numbers are crap, so I'd say none of us should waste our time with them (related point is that the media does waste their time with govt numbers, so likewise I would not waste our time with that media either...saves a lot of time).  The market is screaming deflation right now (hyperleverage, output, employment, sentiment, etc, and the market's ho-hum reaction to the supposed massive QE that should be bringing hyperinflation right now).  I'm convinced the $ will be shooting up. Once that cycle runs its course, we'll have to see what the market is saying. 

 

plantguy90's picture
plantguy90
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 27 2009
Posts: 271
Re: Question for the defaltion camp

I agree, the market will be speak.   Personally I am not betting on a repeat of last year, that when the markets melt down from the next crisis, that they will flock to the dollar.  Its allure as a "safe haven" is tarnished, how much I am not sure.  But I dont think the Central Banks will be strong buyers of the Dollar going forward.   Just my opinion. 

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