Predictions for 2011

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PastTense's picture
PastTense
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Posts: 47
Predictions for 2011

Anyone have predictions for 2011 or have seen some interesting predictions?

Here are a couple:

http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2010/12/predictions-for-2011/

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/2011-whats-coming

Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
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Posts: 562
Re: Predictions for 2011

FWIW, here's my prediction for 2011.

Volatility in commodities due to US economic performance and risks in EU and Asia.

Interest rates will continue to rise but I expect a "boogie man" event to scare investors back into treasuries. There is so much supply coming on the market and the fed can only purchase so much. I see the 10 year being "permitted" to rise up to 4.5%., 5% at the most. Anything higher and a orchestrated stock market take down in not out of the question. Better to save the bond market as opposed to the equity market.

If the ECB continues to be aggressive with its bond purchases then its very possible for the EU to be glued together for quite a few years.

QE 2, 3 will continue providing a jolt to the economy. I would not be surprised to see GDP grow at 2.5% for 2011.

By the end of the year US national debt will have grown to $16.5 trillion. However, pundits will argue that the debt held by the public is only at 10 trillion and that Japan has survived with a much higher percentage of debt to GDP. Thus, its very possible that the status quo will be maintained.

By and large, I dont expect any major fireworks in 2011. In fact, its entirely possible that 2011 will be calmer than 2010 was. With the great crash a full 2 years behind us and with the bernanke put in place, business confidence will continue to grow.

Downside risks to 2011:

1. China slowdown due to bursting of housing bubble

2. Australia housing bubble bursting causing stress to financial markets

3. Crude oil blowing past $120

4. War with Iran

5. Euro crisis with Germany playing hardball with the inflation doves

Final thoughts:

Can kicking is going forward full speed ahead in US, EU, China, and many other countries. Playing hot potato with fiat currency seems to be the name of the game. Nonetheless, the facts show that the world, especially the US, is setting itself up for a major crisis in the not too distant future. While TPTB are presently putting their heads in the sand with regards to US debt levels, its safe to say that by mid 2012 they will begin to see that the game is over for the US as its debt will have skyrocketed to near 18 trillion dollars, this not including unfunded liabilties and state problems. The more aggressive and reckless the US is with the issuance of the world reserve currency, the harder the panic sell off will be when the world realizes just how irresponsible the US is acting. In the end, I am of the belief that the dollar will go down with a bang, a panic sell off, a natural overreaction to 10 or so years of underreaction. The longer foreigners put their heads in the sand re the dollar, the harder the sell off will be.

Happy New Year

Damnthematrix's picture
Damnthematrix
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Posts: 3998
Re: Predictions for 2011

Bear, how can you write "By and large, I dont expect any major fireworks in 2011" and "4. War with Iran" in one post??

Make no mistake, a war with Iran would be NOTHING like a war with Iraq or Afghanistan.....

Mike

JAG's picture
JAG
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Sheeple Herd Indicator Gives A Buy Signal

Significant market pull back at the beginning of the year. My proprietary Sheeple Herd Indicator just gave its largest Buy Signal ever! For more information on this indicator see this old video:

 

Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
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Posts: 562
Re: Predictions for 2011

DMT:

No fireworks UNLESS there is a war with Iran. This is why I put "war with Iran" in the downside risk section. Probability of war with Iran is low at the present time.

Dogs_In_A_Pile's picture
Dogs_In_A_Pile
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Joined: Jan 4 2009
Posts: 2606
Re: Predictions for 2011

Well as we can see from the 'Ohfer' scorecard here (http://www.peakprosperity.com/comment/98079#comment-98079)....

My prediction for 2011?  Somewhere around mid to late December 2011, a large majority of the "experts" opinions and predictions will not have happened and will be wrong.

Time will tell if my prediction being wrong is a good thing or bad thing.

And in the immortal words of Publilius Syrus, one of my favorite 1st century BC maxim authors,

"Tis foolish to fear what you cannot avoid"

ao's picture
ao
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 4 2009
Posts: 2220
Re: Sheeple Herd Indicator Gives A Buy Signal
JAG wrote:

Significant market pull back at the beginning of the year. My proprietary Sheeple Herd Indicator just gave its largest Buy Signal ever! For more information on this indicator see this old video:

Jeff,

I was laughing so hard I was crying watching that.  Thanks for the laugh.

joemanc's picture
joemanc
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 16 2008
Posts: 834
Re: Predictions for 2011
Dogs_In_A_Pile wrote:

My prediction for 2011?  Somewhere around mid to late December 2011, a large majority of the "experts" opinions and predictions will not have happened and will be wrong.

Time will tell if my prediction being wrong is a good thing or bad thing.

I'm going out on a limb here and predict that you will still be drinking scotch in 2011. Laughing

And I'll still be painting. Frown

Nichoman's picture
Nichoman
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 1 2008
Posts: 422
Re: Predictions for 2011

Lets try...

  1. Increasing and record worldwide instabilities in credit markets...more volatile...mostly higher to much higher rates and/or increased costs (e.g. CDS).
  2. Large increases in number and amounts of failed government credit auctions worldwide...possibly including USA by end 2011. 
  3. Increasing and generally accelerating prices worldwide (QE related)...especially in things that are necessary (food, energy, minerals, etc).
  4. Increasing bankruptcies worldwide of just about every type.
  5. Forced cut backs in government services worldwide (including US).
  6. Numerous failed governments by end 2011.
  7. Record Food Shortages--NLT end of 2011.
  8. Road to major conflicts (war)...either occurs or evident by end of year due to economic stresses.
  9. Real inflation adjusted growth worldwide either stagnant or to decrease for 2011.
  10. WILD CARD:  Major financial crisis possible if not probable...tied to points 1 through 9 above.

Agree/disagree?   Why?  

Thanks,

 

Nichoman

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