Predictions for 2010

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ao's picture
ao
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Predictions for 2010

During a year end cleaning out of e-mails, I came upon this.  So much for the pundits' abilities to predict the future.

 

Predictions For The Rest Of 2010

 

 Bob Chapman
First 6 months of 2010, Americans will continue to live in the 'unreality'…the period between July and October is when the financial fireworks will begin. The Fed will act unilaterally for its own survival irrespective of any political implications …(source is from insider at FED meetings). In the last quarter of the year we could even see Martial law, which is more likely for the first 6 months of 2011. The FDIC will collapse in September 2010. Commercial real estate is set to implode in 2010. Wall Street believes there is a 100% chance of crash in bond market, especially municipals sometime during 2010. The dollar will be devalued by the end of 2010.

Gerald Celente
Terrorist attacks and the "Crash of 2010". 40% devaluation at first = the greatest depression, worse than the Great Depression.

Igor Panarin
In the summer of 1998, based on classified data about the state of the U.S. economy and society supplied to him by fellow FAPSI analysts, Panarin forecast the probable disintegration of the USA into six parts in 2010 (at the end of June – start of July 2010, as he specified on 10 December 2000

Neithercorps
Have projected that the third and final stage of the economic collapse will begin sometime in 2010. Barring some kind of financial miracle, or the complete dissolution of the Federal Reserve, a snowballing implosion should become visible by the end of this year. The behavior of the Fed, along with that of the IMF seems to suggest that they are preparing for a focused collapse, peaking within weeks or months instead of years, and the most certain fall of the dollar.

Webbots
July and onward things get very strange. Revolution. Dollar dead by November 2010.

LEAP 20/20
2010 Outlook from a group of 25 European Economists with a 90% accuracy rating- We anticipate a sudden intensification of the crisis in the second half of 2010, caused by a double effect of a catching up of events which were temporarily « frozen » in the second half of 2009 and the impossibility of maintaining the palliative remedies of past years. There is a perfect (economic) storm coming within the global financial markets and inevitable pressure on interest rates in the U.S. The injection of zero-cost money into the Western banking system has failed to restart the economy. Despite zero-cost money, the system has stalled. It is slowly rolling over into the next big down wave, which in Elliott Wave terminology will be Super Cycle Wave Three, or in common language, "THE BIG ONE, WHERE WE ALL GO OVER THE FALLS TOGETHER."

Joseph Meyer
Forecasts on the economy. He sees the real estate market continuing to decline, and advised people to invest in precious metals and commodities, as well as keeping cash at home in a safe place in case of bank closures. The stock market, after peaking in March or April (around 10,850), will fall all the way down to somewhere between 2450 and 4125 during the next leg down.

Harry Dent (investor)
A very likely second crash by late 2010. The coming depression (starts around the summer of 2010). Dent sees the stock market–currently benefiting from upward momentum and peppier economic activity–headed for a very brief and pleasant run that could lift the Dow to the 10,700-11,500 range from its current level of about 10.090. But then, he sees the market running into a stone wall, which will be followed by a nasty stock market decline (starting in early March to late April) that could drive down the Dow later this year to 3,000-5,000, with his best guess about 3,800.

Richard Russell (Market Expert)
(from 2/3/10) says the bear market rally is in the process of breaking up and panic is on the way. He sees a full correction of the entire rise from the 2002 low of 7,286 to the bull market high of 14,164.53 set on October 9, 2007. The halfway level of retracement was 10,725. The total retracement was to 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009. He now sees the Dow falling to 7,286 and if that level does not hold, “I see it sinking to its 1980-82 area low of Dow 1,000.” The current action is the worst he has ever seen. (Bob Chapman says for Russell to make such a startling statement is unusual because he never cries wolf and is almost never wrong)

Niño Becerra (Professor of Economics)
Predicted in July 2007 that what was going to happen was that by mid 2010 there is going to be a crisis only comparable to the one in 1929. From October 2009 to May 2010 people will begin to see things are not working out the way the government thought. In May of 2010, the crisis starts with all its force and continues and strengthens throughout 2011. He accurately predicted the current recession and market crash to the month.

Lyndon Larouche
The crisis is accelerating and will become worse week by week until the whole system grinds into a collapse, likely sometime this year. And when it does, it will be the greatest collapse since the fall of the Roman Empire.

WALL STREET JOURNAL- (2/2010)
"You are witnessing a fundamental breakdown of the American dream, a systemic breakdown of our democracy and our capitalism, a breakdown driven by the blind insatiable greed of Wall Street: Dysfunctional government, insane markets, economy on the brink. Multiply that many times over and see a world in total disarray. Ignore it now, tomorrow will be too late."

Eric deCarbonnel
There is no precedence for the panic and chaos that will occur in 2010. The global food supply/demand picture has NEVER been so out of balance. The 2010 food crisis will rearrange economic, financial, and political order of the world, and those who aren’t prepared will suffer terrible losses…As the dollar loses most of its value, America's savings will be wiped out. The US service economy will disintegrate as consumer spending in real terms (ie: gold or other stable currencies) drops like a rock, bringing unemployment to levels exceeding the great depression. Public health services/programs will be cut back, as individuals will have no savings/credit/income to pay for medical care. Value of most investments will be wiped out. The US debt markets will freeze again, this time permanently. There will be no buyers except at the most drastic of firesale prices, and inflation will wipe away value before credit markets have any chance at recovery. The panic in 2010 will see the majority of derivatives end up worthless. Since global derivatives markets operate on the assumption of the continued stable value of the dollar and short term US debt, using derivatives to bet against the dollar is NOT a good idea. The panic in 2010 will see the majority of derivatives end up worthless. The dollar's collapse will rob US consumers of all purchasing power, and any investment depend on US consumption will lose most of its value.

Alpha-Omega Report (Trends Forecast)
Going into 2010, the trends seemed to lead nowhere or towards oblivion. Geo-politically, the Middle East was and is trending towards some sort of military clash, most likely by mid-year, but perhaps sooner…At the moment, it seems 2010 is shaping up to be a year of absolute chaos. We see trends for war between Israel and her neighbors that will shake every facet of human activity…In the event of war, we see all other societal trends being thoroughly disrupted…Iran will most likely shut off the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf. This will have immense consequences for the world’s economy. Oil prices will skyrocket into the stratosphere and become so expensive that world’s economies will collapse..There are also trend indicators along economic lines that point to the potential for a total meltdown of the world’s financial system with major crisis points developing with the change of each quarter of the year. 2010 could be a meltdown year for the world’s economy, regardless of what goes on in the Middle East.

Robin Landry (Market Expert)
I believe we are headed to new market highs between 10780-11241 over the next few months. The most likely time frame for the top is the April-May area. Remember the evidence IMHO still says we are in a bear market rally with a major decline to follow once this rally ends.

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
In my estimation, there is still close to an 80% probability (Bayes' Rule) that a second market plunge and economic downturn will unfold during 2010.

Robert Prechter
Founder of Elliott Wave International, implores retail investors stay away from the markets… for now. Prechter, who was bullish near the lows in March 2009, now says the stock market “is in a topping area, “predicting another crash in 2010 that will bring stocks below the 2009 low. His word to the wise, “be patient, don’t rush it” keep your money in cash and cash equivalents.

Richard Mogey
Current Research Director at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles- Because of a convergence of numerous cycles all at once, the stock market may go up for a little while, but will crash in 2010 and reach all-time lows late 2012. Mogey says that the 2008 crash was nothing compared to the coming crash. Gold may correct in 2009, but will go up in 2010 and peak in 2011. Silver will follow gold.

James Howard Kunstler (January 2010)
The economy as we’ve known it simply can’t go on, which James Howard Kunstler has been saying all along. The shenanigans with stimulus and bailouts will just compound the central problem with debt. There’s not much longer to go before the whole thing collapses and dies. Six Months to Live- The economy that is. Especially the part that consists of swapping paper certificates. That’s the buzz I’ve gotten the first two weeks of 2010.

Peter Schiff (3/13/2010)
"In my opinion, the market is now perfectly positioned for a massive dollar sell-off. The fundamentals for the dollar in 2010 are so much worse than they were in 2008 that it is hard to imagine a reason for people to keep buying once a modicum of political and monetary stability can be restored in Europe. In fact, the euro has recently stabilized. My gut is that the dollar sell-off will be sharp and swift. Once the dollar decisively breaks below last year's lows, many of the traders who jumped ship in the recent rally will look to re-establish their positions. This will accelerate the dollar's descent and refocus everyone's attention back on the financial train-wreck unfolding in the United States. Any doubts about the future of the U.S. dollar should be laid to rest by today's announcement that San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen has been nominated to be Vice Chair of the Fed's Board of Governors, and thereby a voter on the interest rate-setting, seven-member Open Markets Committee. Ms. Yellen has earned a reputation for being one of the biggest inflation doves among the Fed's top players." Schiff is famous for his accurate predictions of the economic events of 2008.

Lindsey Williams
Dollar devalued 30-50% by end of year. It will become very difficult for the average American to afford to buy even food. This was revealed to him through an Illuminati insider.

Unnamed Economist working for US Gov't (GLP)
What we have experienced the last two years is nothing to what we are going to experience this year. If you have a job now…you may not have it in three to six months. (by August 2010). Stock market will fall = great depression. Foreign investors stop financing debt = collapse. 6.2 million are about to lose their unemployment.

Jimmy "Doomsday"
DOW will fall below 7,000 before mid summer 2010- Dollar will rise above 95 on the dollar index before mid summer 2010- Gold will bottom out below $800 before mid summer 2010- Silver will bottom out below $10 before mid summer 2010- CA debt implosion will start its major downturn by mid summer and hit crisis mode before Q4 2010- Dollar index will plunge below 65 between Q3 and Q4 2010- Commercial real estate will hit crisis mode in Q4 2010- Over 35 states will be bailed out by end of Q4 2010 by the US tax payer End of Q4 2010 gold will hit $1,600 and silver jump to $35 an oz.

George Ure
Markets up until mid-to-late-summer. Then "all hell breaks lose" from then on through the rest of the year.

 

http://www.morningliberty.com/2010/05/16/economic-collapse-martial-law-24-experts-warn-of-2010-meltdown/

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Re: Predictions for 2010

ao

thanks for your post.  it's always nice to reflect on the past year's predictions.  it's a good reminder to take the predictions currently being made with a grain of salt.  Sure, we'll be eatin' a Sh#& sandwich at some time in the future, but NO ONE knows for sure when that will be... 2 years, 5 years, 10 years. 

Brian

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Re: Predictions for 2010

I'll second that thanks.  Any CM'ers brave enough to post their 2011 predictions? 

Nate

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Re: Predictions for 2010

Ao:

I have to laugh at these prognostications. Some of them were so certain. Unfortunately, these dire predictions that never came to pass this year will lead some to ridicule the "experts" and give them cause for complacency.

Inertia and world governmenments and central banks and people around the world can really do a lot to delay the inevitable. As one future prognosticator once said, his predictions are usually about 5 years off. That, said, I think I agree with him.

But the ball is already rolling faster.

Poet

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Re: Predictions for 2010

AO nice post thanks......Jim Rogers has been more on target than any single person I follow. Things will get very ugly at some point when economic reality forces austerity.

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Re: Predictions for 2010

Thanks for that fascinating post. I'm still inclined to mostly agree with these doomers, but maybe there's a part of them that anxiously awaits for the feces to hit the fan, get it over with already, and this emotion might add some urgency into their forecasts.

Maybe there is a grain of truth to the term "gloom and doom" porn, partly because we expect some silver linings. Goodbye to being the only cyclist in an ocean of automobilie exhaust. Cleaner water and rivers maybe. More farmer's markets and less of the sterile aisles of the giant supermarket. No more eggs from Aushwitz farms, as Celente would say. Discard that crappy job and drunkenly run amock shooting bullets in the air experiencing true freedom for the first time! Goodbye to these multinational corporate monsters. Goodbye to buying plastic garbage at Wal-mart and throwing it in the trash 2 weeks later.  Hello to real news because it's harder to feed plastic elevator music to people who know the score. Real banking reform? Then perhaps we could  finally get to the business of pulling together and reforming into a better society rather than half-heartedly discussing the latest "evidence" for a recovery from the mainstream media.

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Re: Predictions for 2010

Mike Maloney also predicts a horrific stock market crash, a magnificent dead cat bounce. Also predicts the dollar is toast. He doesn't exactly say when other than "soon", but I really get the feeling from this guy that he knows what he's talking about. 

Nice video with easy to understand charts and good historical perspective

(~14minutes)

ao's picture
ao
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Re: Predictions for 2010
Rojelio wrote:

Mike Maloney also predicts a horrific stock market crash, a magnificent dead cat bounce. Also predicts the dollar is toast. He doesn't exactly say when other than "soon", but I really get the feeling from this guy that he knows what he's talking about. 

Nice video with easy to understand charts and good historical perspective

(~14minutes)

Rojelio,

I like Michael Maloney and his book but if you look at his background, he's relatively new to the game and just hasn't had the time to accumulate the knowledge or experience in financial and economic matters that I think is necessary.  Also, from my perspective, he tends to oversimplify issues that are far more complex and unpredictable in the real world.  Don't mistake one who speaks with confidence and self-assurance as necessarily being all that he appears to be.  And always remember what he's selling.

Thanks to all for the comments.

I just want to emphasize that my point wasn't to downplay the seriousness of what we're facing but to show that no one knows for sure what's going to happen, especially the time frame of events.  As the saying goes, the markets can behave irrationally far longer than one can remain solvent.  As I've stated before, I think it highly unlikely that there will be a single catastrophic crash event.  That would ultimately be much less painful than the slow, grinding, grueling crumbling we're more likely to see.  My strategy has always been to prepare for the worst but also prepare for things going on just as they have been.  When you follow strategies that are sound and reasonable for both scenarios, you'll enter the future far more prepared and with much less fear and trepidation. 

 

 

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Re: Predictions for 2010

ao,

Beautiful post....I'm in total awe. Thank you!

It looks like the sheeple got it right for another year....as their Captain I am overflowing with prideLaughing

What was that about pride and falling?

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Re: Predictions for 2010

Market hit my target in April and we did have a major decline to the 9600 area in July. Posting something which does not account for changes made in later updates is misleading, and self serving, if not outright dishonest. My predictions are not for longer the longer term unless stated explicitly, even then there are levels which must be hit that determine what happens next in my work.

Robin Landry

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Re: Predictions for 2010

Market hit my target in April and we did have a major decline to the 9600 area in July. Posting something which does not account for changes made in later updates is misleading, and self serving, if not outright dishonest. My predictions are not for longer the longer term unless stated explicitly, even then there are levels which must be hit that determine what happens next in my work.

Robin Landry

From the OP:

"Robin Landry (Market Expert)

I believe we are headed to new market highs between 10780-11241 over the next few months. The most likely time frame for the top is the April-May area. Remember the evidence IMHO still says we are in a bear market rally with a major decline to follow once this rally ends."

And now the market is back to ~11,600.

So, you would amend your original prediction to:

"I believe we are headed to new market highs between 10780-11241 over the next few months. The most likely time frame for the top is the April-May area. Remember the evidence IMHO still says we are in a bear market rally with a major decline to follow once this rally ends.  And once the major decline is over the market will go up again."??

In other words, "I believe the Market will go up, down and sideways, not always in that order.  It might go up, then go up some more, or it might go sideways, then down, or up, then down, then sideways, then down again, then up..... (repeat ad infinitum)"

 

Making changes based on observing what has already happened is equally misleading and self-serving.  I'd stop short of dishonest though.

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Re: Predictions for 2010
Quote:

In other words, "I believe the Market will go up, down and sideways, not always in that order.  It might go up, then go up some more, or it might go sideways, then down, or up, then down, then sideways, then down again, then up..... (repeat ad infinitum)"

By Jove, I think you have it!!Smile A market timer in the making.

Doug

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Re: Predictions for 2010

I've been out of the market for most of 2010 and missed a lot of gains because of fear of what might happen.  Because of this I have not regained the 2008/2009 losses I had from staying in too long.  Now I feel like I'm late to the game, and still afraid to get back in and can't understand how we can have rallies when most states are insolvent and unemployment is so high...

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Re: Predictions for 2010
DrHolden wrote:

I've been out of the market for most of 2010 and missed a lot of gains because of fear of what might happen.  Because of this I have not regained the 2008/2009 losses I had from staying in too long.  Now I feel like I'm late to the game, and still afraid to get back in and can't understand how we can have rallies when most states are insolvent and unemployment is so high...

Doc -

Fear and greed gets people killed in the market.  You are overthinking this IMO.  Rather than concern yourself with "why" the market is doing something contrary to what else is going on in the country, you only need to be concerned with the fact that the market "is doing" something. 

A market neutral approach generates trading opportunities constantly.  Learn how to trade the market when it is going up or down.  I am greatly simplifying my trading strategy, but I buy and sell Calls when the market is going up and I buy and sell Puts when the market is going down.  I only take a chunk of the move - not worrying about getting in at the first best nickel or getting out at the last best dime.  And when my trade moves contrary to the direction I expected it to - I CLOSE THE POSITION WITH A NOMINAL LOSS AND GET OUT!

Minimizing losses generates wealth in the market, not sticking around hoping to stumble on to the next Berkshire-Hathaway.

Although that works too.

Sometimes. 

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Damnthematrix
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Re: Predictions for 2010

Yes, nice graphics etc, and excellent explanation of the monetary system, but.......

Mike Maloney has one serious problem:  he doesn't know or understand or believe in limits to growth.  He points to oil and other commodities and says they're in a bubble (even pointing to Russia's peaking oil without knowing what he is seeing!) and believes these bubbles will burst......

I can tell you if oil goes back down to ten bucks...  we won't get any, the oil companies won't sell it to you at a loss, and THAT's for sure! And neither will the corn farmers, or wheat farmers sell their crops at a loss either..

Mike

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ao
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Re: Predictions for 2010

Market hit my target in April and we did have a major decline to the 9600 area in July. Posting something which does not account for changes made in later updates is misleading, and self serving, if not outright dishonest. My predictions are not for longer the longer term unless stated explicitly, even then there are levels which must be hit that determine what happens next in my work.

Robin Landry

Robin,

I hope your beef isn't with me but with the person who actually wrote what I posted.  You may want to contact them and request that, in the future, they define the parameters of your prediction(s) more precisely (if indeed you specified those parameters beforehand).  You may also wish to re-examine the wisdom of offering predictions about an uncertain future.  On the other hand, if you're accusing the messenger (that's me) of dishonesty, you will definitely want to rethink the implications of that statement.    

That being said, Dogs took the words right out of my mouth.  To me, "changes made in later updates" which are at variance with what one originally states seem "misleading and self serving". 

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Re: Predictions for 2010

I am with Yogi Berra on this one.

It is so much easier to make predictions about the past than about the future.

Although he did not say it quite that way.

It seems to me that people have been predicting a near term collapse in the US for a good while. I  am beginning to wonder if the people in power will continue to find new and innovative ways to kick the can down the road. It sure seems as though the collapse is always just around the corner but the corner keeps moving. I guess the right strategy is to prepare as best as we can and hope the collapse does not come.

Don't Worry - Be Happy

 

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Re: Predictions for 2010

Ok CMer's, I'll go ahead and make my predictions for 2011.

Commodities will continue to rise - maybe. Big banks will continue to suck the government (you and me) dry for $ lost on risky "investments" - perhaps. Republicans will blame the Democrats and Democrats will blame the Republicans unless they both decide to blame the Tea Party - probably. Unemployment will continue to get worse, but the official figures will be twisted and manipulated to prove that government stimulus is "turning it around" - most likely. 

It's always best to hedge a little when making predictions, just in case someone is actually paying attention. Foot in mouth

SS

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Re: Predictions for 2010
Dogs_In_A_Pile wrote:

Learn how to trade the market when it is going up or down.

Most of my money is currently in retirement accounts which limit what and how often I can trade.  I'm not is a position to trade when the market is going up or down.  I've already had accounts frozen for trading too often.  What I am able to trade, is in gold and silver ETFs, or physical gold and they have all done better than the market.

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