Potential of Oil Shale to Avert Peak Oil

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ewilkerson's picture
ewilkerson
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Potential of Oil Shale to Avert Peak Oil

Could someone point me to some articles about the potential of oil shale to avert Peak Oil.  I have Googled, etc. and can not find anything of substance.  Thanks for the help.

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Dogs_In_A_Pile
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Re: Potential of Oil Shale to Avert Peak Oil

ewilkerson -

I'm not trying to be a wise guy here.........but you need look no further 

http://www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse/chapter-17a-peak-oil

Oil Shale (Tar Sands, fracking, deep water drilling, abiotic oil, insert pipe dream of choice here) can't avert Peak Oil - that has likely already happened.  What it may do is kick the can down the road for a few months, but it all comes back to EROEI and Time, Scale and Cost issues.

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ewilkerson
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Re: Potential of Oil Shale to Avert Peak Oil

No problem dogs..  I have watched it several times.  I just saw a little piece claiming how many millions of production could come from there.  I saw that, made this post, and went for a run.  When I got in, my mind was much more clear on the absurdity of shale doing a great deal.  I think my mind is going into overload I read so much about Peak Oil and the sovereign debt crisis. Wink

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ewilkerson
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Re: Potential of Oil Shale to Avert Peak Oil

No problem dogs..  I have watched it several times.  I just saw a little piece claiming how many millions of production could come from there.  I saw that, made this post, and went for a run.  When I got in, my mind was much more clear on the absurdity of shale doing a great deal.  I think my mind is going into overload I read so much about Peak Oil and the sovereign debt crisis. Wink  I'm like you.  I think we are probably basically in it on conventional oil.  I get a little nervous though making these decisions to do with finance and how far to prepare.  It's hard to plan for that to humans is almost like the asteroid was to dinosaurs.  I know it's not going to wipe us out unless we go to war and almost think we'll be better off.  But the changes will be immense.

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Re: Potential of Oil Shale to Avert Peak Oil

I remember this news:

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=9926096

Here is an older video, I would contest a few points:

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Dogs_In_A_Pile
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Re: Potential of Oil Shale to Avert Peak Oil

ewilkerson -

Seeing as how I rarely follow my own advice, I looked around, here's the link to the entire article.  http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

I pulled the section on oil shale out and copied it below:

"What About the Oil Shale in the American West?"

The huge reserves of oil shale in the American west suffer from similar problems. While Shell Oil has an experimental oil shale program, even Steve Mut - the CEO of their Unconventional Resources Unit - has sounded less than optimistic when questioned about the ability of oil shale to soften the coming crash. According to journalist Stuart Staniford's coverage of a recent conference on Peak Oil:

In response to questions, Steve guesstimated that oil shale production would still be pretty negligible by 2015, but might, if things go really well, get to 5 mbpd by 2030. Source

Disinterested observers are even less optimistic about oil shale. Geologist Dr. Walter Youngquist points out:

The average citizen . . . is led to believe that the United States really has no oil supply problem when oil shales hold "recoverable oil" equal to "more than 64 percent of the world's total proven crude oil reserves." Presumably the United States could tap into this great oil reserve at any time. This is not true at all. All attempts to get this "oil" out of shale have failed economically. Furthermore, the "oil" (and, it is not oil as is crude oil, but this is not stated) may be recoverable but the net energy recovered may not equal the energy used to recover it. If oil is "recovered" but at a net energy loss, the operation is a failure.

This means any attempt to replace conventional oil with oil shale will actually make our situation worse as the project will consume more energy than it will produce, regardless of how high the price goes. Plenty of money, however, will likely be thrown at attempts to develop the oil shale as most investors are as energy-illiterate as the general population.

Further problems with oil shale have been documented by economist Professor James Hamilton who writes:

A recent Rand study concluded it will be at least 12 years before oil shale reaches the production growth phase. And that is a technological assessment, not a reference to the environmental review process. If it takes 15 years to get an oil refinery built and approved, despite well known technology and well understood environmental issues, viewing oil shale as something that could make major contributions to world energy supplies in the immediate future seems highly unrealistic.

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Re: Potential of Oil Shale to Avert Peak Oil

There is always natural gas to help kick the can down the road for a couple years. This is one weakness in the crash course that I have found, that natural gas is not discussed in enough detail. Half of Perth, Australia's gas stations have LNG. We could implement that over here in the states within a decade. Not to say that peak oil wont do its damage, but LNG can provide a floor.

 

 

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Re: Potential of Oil Shale to Avert Peak Oil

Shale Oil Production Surges
Imports may go down, but environmentalists decry process

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Re: Potential of Oil Shale to Avert Peak Oil
trwiley wrote:

Shale Oil Production Surges
Imports may go down, but environmentalists decry process

From the article:

Companies are investing billions of dollars to get at oil deposits scattered across North Dakota, Colorado, Texas and California....

Oil engineers... drill down and horizontally into the rock, then pump water, sand and chemicals into the hole to crack the shale and allow gas to flow up.

Because oil molecules are sticky and larger than gas molecules, engineers thought the process wouldn`t work to squeeze oil out fast enough to make it economical. But drillers learned how to increase the number of cracks in the rock and use different chemicals to free up oil at low cost.

 

Good for them! They figured out how to get oil up as well as gas. But they're still pumping enormous quantities of water, now polluted, into the ground, in states that do not have water to spare. Where will that water come from?

You can't drink oil, or irrigate crops with it. You can't "solve problems" in isolation from the whole system.

 

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ewilkerson's picture
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Re: Potential of Oil Shale to Avert Peak Oil

Thanks everyone for the info.  I do a lot of reading on Peak Oil and have done all I can prepare, but when someone tries to say they have a solution, I have to have the most information I can get.  Committing a large part of your free money to prepare for what I think will be catastrophic is unnerving. 

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Re: Potential of Oil Shale to Avert Peak Oil
ewilkerson wrote:

Thanks everyone for the info.  I do a lot of reading on Peak Oil and have done all I can prepare, but when someone tries to say they have a solution, I have to have the most information I can get.  Committing a large part of your free money to prepare for what I think will be catastrophic is unnerving. 

Soon you will feel very satisfied to have done everything in your ability to prepare. Good luck.

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Re: Potential of Oil Shale to Avert Peak Oil

Not every scenario on gas is rosy as it appears on the surface - just underneath what you see there can be "Trouble in River City"

 

I can give you a little more insight on the marcellus shale. There is a new Governor in PA (Tom Corbett) who replaced Ed Rendell last month. The press is correct about not yet having a severance tax in place, my own opinion of this is that Corbett is waiting until his budget cuts are announced next month. As far as the listed fracking chemicals, there are more unlisted chemicals that are protected from disclosure under the Haliburton Loophole. As you might imagine we would not enjoy Pennsylvania becoming a northeastern version of the gulf coast, so there lots of protests happening. 

 

Another development that is causing some concern is the fact that Rendell's entire EPA staff, along with key administrative aides have left several months ago to work for BG Group, a British gas company that recently bought a stake in Pennsylvania's natural gas business. The defecting DEP officials and staff have left the PA citizens at the mercy of the gas industry by going over to the other side with all the knowledge of current policy and law, plus intimate details of past negotiations - they have become expert negotiators dealing with rookies who will have the impossible task of defending our rights. 

 

Personally I would like to see fracking eliminated, as the threat to aquifers is nothing to gamble on. We can live without gas, we can't live without water.

 

Haliburton Loophole

 

Rendell aides story 


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