PM price predictions!

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thatchmo's picture
thatchmo
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 14 2008
Posts: 432
PM price predictions!

I'm sitting here trying to balance today's two main posts on CM, Greece CDS triggered, and Nowhere near a Gold Bubble.  I thought I knew that TWAWKI would crash on a Greek CDS event, and PMs would go through the roof.  After hearing the Robert Mish interview, I thought I would sneak down to pick up a few coins at the local dealer but, alas, he was closed for the weekend.  Disaster or Stroke of Luck?  Things seem quiet Saturday night. 

So I'm just thinking, what will happen to PM prices on Monday given these events?  Will "The Greek" be seen as a cure/solution and an equitities up/ PMs down situation occur, or will it be just the opposite?  Nothing seems to obey anything we think we know these days, so, we have about 36 hours to guess and have fun with the future.  Any takers? 

I was actually thinking of posting this in the Definitive Humor Thread so we could all laugh (or cry...) at our predictions in 6 months.  Or Tuesday.  Can't win if you don't play....Aloha, Steve.

ewilkerson's picture
ewilkerson
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 18 2010
Posts: 390
thatchmo

I believe they have to do some kind of auction to determine the value before they are paid.  I don't understand that part, but there are over $70B gross and $3B net.  Everyone just about says the net is what counts.  I disagree.  There is counter-party risk on all $70B.  We'll just have to wait and see.  If anyone can't pay, it'll probably be covered up anyway.

As for PMs, don't worry.  The only way, but it won't work, out of this mess is to print money.  You print money and PMs go up.  You print too much money and the monetary system collapses.  You're in great shape no matter what.  I missed the article you are referring to on PMs. Most bubble people don't understand how serious the economic situation is.

Ernest

learing2012's picture
learing2012
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Mar 4 2012
Posts: 6
Local news

I live in a top 10 city  city by population in Texas and found only 2 of 4 dealer with gold eagles this Saturday. Business is good for them. Coin shows are getting good traffic. It will take time to see this ripple through the demand higher up. Many people have no cash to put into PMs at this time (90% of America is already in debt remember). The pensions and large institutions will join us "smaller" buyers ater his year or next, and it will be interesting. Keep dollar cost averaging my friends.

agitating prop's picture
agitating prop
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: May 28 2009
Posts: 854
will drop like aa hot rock

will drop like aa hot rock until after the elections..and then...to the moon, Alice!

tictac1's picture
tictac1
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 25 2009
Posts: 175
suppression

There is plenty of evidence of price suppression being done by the bullion banks.  There is also some evidence that $1800 on gold is a magic number, so to speak, which triggers the need for the banks to manipulate the price downward.  If you look at the charts, there does seem to be severe price drops every time the price approachs the "magic number", such as the one just in the past few days.

Price suppression gives the fiat printers the illusion of stability and confidence, which is the only thing keeping the house of cards up.  In other words, gold cannot appear to be ascending in value endlessly, otherwise it would become obvious that the ponzi scheme is coming to an end.  Couple the price suppression with well-slanted reporting on the economy, and there's your confidence game, literally.

So my wild-ass guess (it's as good as any paid economist) is that gold price will bounce between a high of roughly 1800-1850 and a low of roughly 1600 for as long as the bullion banks can keep it going.  After that, you may see what the true price really is.  The unknown variable is long the bankers can keep it up; i don't think there's any way to know that without inside information.

Keep in mind, pricing is based on paper gold as well as physical, and there again, plenty of evidence that paper gold is essentially fiat too.  There's far more paper than metal.

Dogs_In_A_Pile's picture
Dogs_In_A_Pile
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 4 2009
Posts: 2606
I'm guessing......

Up, down or sideways.

And will trade the movement accordingly......

Jim H's picture
Jim H
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 8 2009
Posts: 2379
New QE would be a game changer...

If and when we get new QE, PM's will break out of their current (manipulated) ranges and take off. 

Hard to say when that will be.. but I view today's prices and very good buying opportunities.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/here-why-everything-today-goldman-expect-n...

tictac1's picture
tictac1
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 25 2009
Posts: 175
I agree about today's

I agree about today's buying, but the last time QE officially came to an end, PM's went way way up...  Not sure what to make of that!  One thought is that QE, for the banks and investors, represents an assurance of risk-free money, which encourages risk taking, and a move away from metal.  End the QE, and uh oh, better find something solid to hang on to.

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