Phoenix vs Madrid

6 posts / 0 new
Last post
Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 17 2009
Posts: 562
Phoenix vs Madrid

 

Phoenix is doomed. Check out these statistics.

City population: 1.4 million

City area: 519 sq miles

 

Madrid:

City area: 230 sq miles

City population:3.2 million people

Phoenix has double the area with Madrid having 2.2 times the population. Population density is 5 times higher in Madrid than it is in Phoenix. Also, phoenix has a metro area that is a ghastly 9,000 sq miles.

By the time gas hits $5 per gallon in Phoeniz, I expect its economy to plunge. For those that live in Phoenix, I would think hard and well about finances and budgeting.

Madrid recieves 17 inches of rain per year while Phoenix gets 8 inches per year.

Of all the cities in the US, the facts show that the Phoenix is the number one contender for a serious breakdown. Throw in the Mexican border being so close, it just adds to the city's woes.

wags999's picture
wags999
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 16 2009
Posts: 24
Not sure what your point

Not sure what your point is?  Or what the comparison to Madrid means?

dshields's picture
dshields
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 24 2009
Posts: 599
pick a city...

Pick a city, any city, and if that city's logistics system is impaired by say 50 percent there is going to be an emergency.  Cities only work if there is a large, costly, and complex logistics network in place.  If there really is some type of serious financial issue over the next year or so, cities will be the last place to be.  The food will run out very quickly (a week or two ?) and when hunger sets in the people will start to leave.  And then violence will set in with marauding bands of people driven to violence for survival.  In a month hordes of people will be streaming out of cities to the surrounding areas.  The surrounding areas will not be to happy with that.  The surrounding areas will resist having their food, vehicles, weapons, and females plundered.  So the violence will start in the cities and spread out from the cities.  If I lived in a city and was able to afford it I would be thinking about getting a country vacation place.  I would keep stuff there locked up good (like in a locked basement).  I would keep enough gas at my city place to get me to the vacation place.

Maybe I am just paranoid, but I worry about stuff like that...

 

Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 17 2009
Posts: 562
wags, just pointing out how

wags,

just pointing out how spread out some US cities are in comparison to a european city. There is going to be a price to pay for all those lawns, suburban housing tracts.

wags999's picture
wags999
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 16 2009
Posts: 24
JD, your assuming most

JD, your assuming most people work and need to go into the cities for survival. I live outside the Phoenix, area, most people do NOT work or have any need to go into Phoenix.  I assume your saying, living in clusters, on top of each other is a benefit. I dare say that is exactly what you do not want.  As DSheilds pointed out, cities will be a hazard to your health if SHTF.  I would say, I can live here with no heat or AC better than they can in most parts of this world.

I think I rather be in sprawling areas, rather than in an urban enviroment if it happens. 

Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 17 2009
Posts: 562
wags,It depends on what

wags,

It depends on what your definition of shtf means. At this point we are all speculating but here is my speculation as to what will happened and how. Again, these are just my thoughts.

Lets assume the US finds itself in a serious fiscal crisis, and by serious I mean bond yields start flying higher with no bids and heavy selling from overseas holders. The yields are high enough to put the US at serious risk of default. Given that roughly 4 trillion of treasuries are held overseas there is the risk that there can be a selloff. Lets assume a sell off like that takes place. In response to said sell off the US gov implements emergency actions as follows:

(1) US holders are not allowed to sell, basically a freeze on treasury sales

(2) The fed gobbles up a few trillion

(3) 401k accounts are confiscated by instituting a "swap", meaning 15% of each 401k is required to own a special nonmarketable treasury security

(4) serious cuts are implemented in medicare and social security, possibly on a longer time frame

(5) tax increases on corporate revenue, households and other entities

(6) a means test for social security recipients

These 6 actions can be implemented over time or in a emergency situation. I believe these types of actions will take place under the guise of an emergency. The same way Nixon slammed the gold window, the same way the accounting rules were suspended for bank assets, the same way the fed tripled its balance sheet to 2.6 trillion, expect the unexpected. In addition, expect further reaming of the middle class. Sure, there will be an outcry, some screaming and maybe even violent protests. But look at how resilient heavy handed governments are in the face of widespread violence in the middle east. The US has used similar means to quell civil unrest in the past (think Waco, Kent state, LA riots, hurricane Katrina).

The point that I'm trying to make is that the US gov has plenty of breathing room to kick the can down the road for an extended period of time before it loses control of the situation and by losing control I mean breakdown of the federal system of control. In addition, throw in peak oil issues and still its very likely that the economic system will continue, sickly as it may be. For example the US consumes 21 million barrels a day. In a crash the country will be forced to consume possibly as low as 15 million bpd. Throw in reduced consumption in europe by the tune of 3-4 million, plus china which has been on a construction frenzy and we may possible see a 10 million bpd oil glut, sending the price back down to the low 30's. This is a process not an event and thats the trouble I have with "TSHTF" statements. The human mind likes certainty, a moment where things change for good. Its relieving for sure, knowing that at some point in the future things will change and from then we can rebuild. But what if its a slow, drawn out process, where the rules keep changing in order to maintain the closest resemblance to the status quo? There is plenty of fat to cut, from social security, to medicare, to defense, to raising taxes to 401k treasury swaps. Think what you would do if you were a greedy power elite trying to keep the current system going. So far they continue to act as I would anticipate them acting. Notice in the media now the words "adjustments to social security, medicare" keep popping up.

So back to the original debate. In a high unemployment, high energy cost environment, but with the economy still functioning, a place like Madrid where distances are small will benefit a person better than a place spread out like Phoenix. Phoenix will become unbearable in the event of $8 gas whereas Europe chugs along with its current $9 gas. Most of my family that lives in athens greece dont use cars. With no car in Phoenix, Southern California, and many other western state cities, you are helpless and practically homeless.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Login or Register to post comments