Peak Oil Decline Eased?

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leo0648
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Peak Oil Decline Eased?

I found this company with technology to increase oil recovery by 10-15%.  Basically they pulsate the injection of H20 and CO2 instead of a steady flow.  The pulsation allows for more oil to be recovered.  I still think we will see peak oil, but this technology may help slow the decline.

 

Check out the video:

http://onthewavefront.com/Files/Download/Videos/Video1/video1.html

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Re: Peak Oil Decline Eased?

I'd rather rip off the bandaid quick than drag it out, but I don't get a vote.

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Re: Peak Oil Decline Eased?
leo0648 wrote:

I found this company with technology to increase oil recovery by 10-15%.  Basically they pulsate the injection of H20 and CO2 instead of a steady flow.  The pulsation allows for more oil to be recovered.  I still think we will see peak oil, but this technology may help slow the decline.

Every little bit helps, but this will only be a very little bit at best. Waterfloods are routinely used already. Once water breakthrough takes place it is very difficult to shut off the most permeable channels and establish a new, movable oil bank. At the present time there is not enough oil left in candidate reservoirs for the new technology to produce any significant impact on world production capacity. And that is even before considering that the technology probably is a lot less effective than was presented in the video.

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Re: Peak Oil Decline Eased?

Oh sure, there's a lot of technology out there to "squeeze out" more juice out of those fields... but guess what? This stuff takes energy to run and the EROEI goes way way down

Samuel

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Re: Peak Oil Decline Eased?

And that is even before considering that the technology probably is a lot less effective than was presented in the video.

Actually Stan, if you read the press releases, the technology is more effective than presented.  The most recent press release says that in one field they decreased the decline of the field from 10%/year to 3%/year (based on 2 years of use).  They have signed contracts with BP, Encana, Exxon, Pemex, and Denburry resources and you know these companies wouldn't be buying if the technology wasn't real.  Of course, peak oil will still be there.  But technologies like this may push the cliff back further.

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Re: Peak Oil Decline Eased?
leo0648 wrote:

But technologies like this may push the cliff back further.

To finish your sentence accurately you need to add "and then make the cliff all the steeper." and likely the more damaging.

If you increase the speed of extraction of any finite resource then this will happen, for instance if an oil field has say 21 trillion barrels of oil in it, and we can extract easily up to half, say we spend 20 years getting to peak extraction (from initial extraction, expansion and increasing extraction, etc.). Well after that logically it takes another 20 years to completely deplete. Now if we maintain extraction at peak, since there's finite quantity, then the time to depletion will be significantly less than 20 years.Actually if you just look ideally that 21T bbl field can supply 1T bbls for 21 years, or 500G bbl for 42 years, or 21T bbl for a year or any other time span as long as you don't exceed 21T bbls total, with a vertical rise to production and a vertical cliff to depletion.

Also EROI will be decreasing exponentially during the final few years of extraction, to the point that it may take more energy to extract than is returned. Especially if this is a worldwide phenomenon, do you think BP, Exxon, etc. care that it's costing 200% energy more to extract oil, than the oil returns, if oil prices are in the $500 per bbl and they're paying $250 per bbl in energy costs? I don't think so since the 6.1GJ from a barrel of oil to 12.2GJ energy invested is only a concern for those of us who are thinking about the Energy Return, Big Oil is thinking about profit. If the energy costs cut into that profit they care otherwise they couldn't care less.

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Re: Peak Oil Decline Eased?
Gungnir wrote:
leo0648 wrote:

But technologies like this may push the cliff back further.

To finish your sentence accurately you need to add "and then make the cliff all the steeper." and likely the more damaging.

+1

just look at Cantarell for a live example of how you can force the curve out of symmetry.

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Tribute Paid In Oil by Hugo Salinas Price

Ready,

That's the kind of Oil Drum article I've come to value.

 I've put this piece by Hugo Price of Financial Sense on the CM forum a couple of times and I'm sure you've read it but figure others need the opportunity. As ever, the causes and effects of Peak Oil are too fantastical to contemplate. No wonder it takes multiple attempts to get the reality of it over to people. It is all en-compassing and complicated.

 Lets follow the white rabbit ...

Best,

Paul

:-

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/salinasprice/2008/0620.html

TRIBUTE PAID IN OIL
by Hugo Salinas Price
President, Mexican Civic Association Pro Silver
June 20, 2008

According to the data presented by David Galland in his article “Turning off the Taps”, recently published at www.financialsense.com, México is exporting 184,000 barrels of oil less than its programmed quota of sales to the U.S. The article says the deficit amounts to 11%. Therefore, the daily quota must be about 1,673,000 barrels of oil daily, but the actual net export of oil is approximately 1,489,000 barrels a day.

If we multiply 1,489,000 barrels a day by 360 and by $112 dollars, the present price of Mexican oil, we get the amount of some $60 billion dollars of annual exports of Mexican oil to the US.

Mexico’s oil production is in decline due to the on-going exhaustion of the oil fields being exploited.

In 2004, Mexico exported 50% of the oil extracted. Some years ago, Mexico reached its peak production and if we estimate very conservatively that production is declining at a rate of 5% a year, in four years – from 2004 to the present - production must have declined by 20%.

In the meantime, Mexico’s own consumption of oil has increased. So that by 2014, Mexico will have no excess oil production available for export. Galland conjectures that by 2014, not a single barrel of Mexican oil will be exported.

The whole world is presently feeling the first effects of the general exhaustion of world oil fields: “Peak Oil”. Unless “Peak Oil” is an imaginary problem, the price of oil is therefore going to continue rising with brutal effects upon the world economy. Not only Mexican oil production is declining; we are dealing with a decline in world production of oil. 

For this reason, there will perhaps be no reduction in the amount of dollars entering the Mexican economy for the remaining years during which there will be exports of oil. The price of oil will go to $200, to $300, to $400 hundred dollars a barrel and more, as the economies of the world struggle to obtain the oil required for their industries.

Today, there are at least two world centers which will be able to pay those prices; they will have no option but to pay them, because without oil, the lights will literally go out.

Those centers are the US and the Eurozone. They will be able to pay the necessary price to get their oil, because both the US and the Eurozone can manufacture digital dollars and digital euros at will. Iran is willing to accept Japanese yen in exchange for its oil.

The rest of the world, which needs the oil but does not have the advantage of having a currency accepted as a “reserve currency”, will have a terrible time obtaining the dollars or euros necessary to purchase oil. Their economies will be strangled for lack of fuel.

We must note something that is of fundamental importance: neither the US nor the Eurozone are actually paying for their oil with exports of goods and services to the oil producing countries. They “pay” with bank digits, created by computers; these payments are registered in the form of credits in the computer memories of banks in the US and in the Eurozone. We should have to include Japan among the countries which are able to purchase oil with their own currency.

These bank digits are not credit instruments in favor of those who receive them, as for instance dollars were, when they were formerly redeemable in gold; they are simply numbers, because they do not incorporate a promise to deliver something to the beneficiary, the oil exporter. A credit instrument is the promise to deliver something, and a bank digit is not “something”. It is just a number and nothing more. 

So we can quite correctly say that the US and the Eurozone – and other countries whose currencies are considered “reserve currencies” – are “paying” for their oil imports with nothing at all. The Romans called such an operation “Collection of Tribute from the Conquered”.

This is what Mexico is doing; it is exporting precious oil from its oil fields in relentless decline in exchange for – nothing.

It is true, of course, that dollars and euros can be used (for the time being) to purchase things in the rest of the world. They are good for that, because they are accepted as a means of exchange. However, those means of exchange are most certainly not a means of payment. Payment is the delivery of something in exchange for something. Bank digits are not something. They are simple numbers.

This fact is glaringly evident when we contemplate the gigantic “monetary reserves” of China, which has recently accumulated $1.68 Trillion in reserves which include dollars, euros and some other digital currencies. The Chinese really do not have the faintest idea of what to do with this monstrous amount of digits and they, like the Arabs, have formed financial entities which are called “Sovereign Wealth Funds”. The purpose of these funds is to find unsuspecting countries upon which to unload these bank digits in return for tangible resources.

The bank digits in the Chinese reserves are only means of exchange. The Chinese are going around the world trying to find places to deliver these digits, for which they otherwise have no use at all. Now, if the Chinese reserves were gold, they would be in no hurry to get rid of them nor would they consider them excessive. But the reserves are not gold; they are simply bank digits which live in the computers of the countries that issue those digits.

For Mexico, what are the consequences of delivering oil from Mexican territory in exchange for bank digits?

I shall not go into detail on how Mexico distributes the digital income from the “sale” – properly speaking, tribute – of oil to the US.

We are talking about some $60 billion digital dollars which are available to various Mexican entities every year. Part of those digits are applied to the importation of merchandise for consumption. Part to pay for imports of machinery and services by PEMEX, the oil company. Part of that income is used by PEMEX to pay salaries and expenses in Mexico, for which it needs to sell its dollars in exchange for pesos with which to effect payments. Part of the oil income goes to the Federal Government, which also exchanges dollars for pesos. When dollar digits are exchanged for pesos, the dollar digits wind up as Reserves in the Bank of Mexico, and increase the total reserves of bank digits held by the Bank.

Net – net – net: What left the country was oil; what came in was bank digits. Part of the bank digits left the country for importation of goods. But a good part remained here. As a reflection of that, the reserves of the Bank of Mexico now stand at a record.

The result of exporting oil is that every day we have more money in circulation. 27% of that money is nothing more than paper bills or metal coins; the remaining 73% is only bank digits called “pesos”. This is imaginary money which Mexicans have in the banking system of the country.

Thus the dollar digits coming into Mexico cause monetary inflation, a constant increase in the mass of money in circulation which makes each unit of pre-existing money less valuable. Of course, the most common and inevitable result of this is rising prices.

We are importing inflation from the US because the oil we export is not paid for with goods and services coming from the US to Mexico; we are given a simulated payment, which is payment in bank digits. This imported inflation is contributing to the general rise in prices taking place in the country. On June 18, the Mexican government decreed an emergency freeze in prices of 150 food products to last until the end of 2008.

The high price of oil is not a blessing for Mexico because it does not mean that we get more things of value from the rest of the world; it means that we receive now, and shall receive in the future, quantities of bank digits which are going to cause an increase in the price of things which Mexicans have to purchase in order to live.

What we are suffering is happening in all the countries of the world which have export surpluses. They are all importing monetary inflation and local prices are going up.

China, the great manufacturing power and exporter, is an example: too much digital money is entering China and thus prices in China are on a tear; both their internal prices and now their exports will be rising in price. Chinese products have to go up in price and soon they will be sold for higher prices both in the US and in Mexico: digital monetary inflation originates in NY City, passes on to China and from there, it returns to the US and to Mexico in the form of higher prices for Chinese products.

When oil reaches $200 dollars a barrel the situation will be even worse. Prices in Mexico will be forced to rise, including wages, for workers will be shortly demanding higher and higher wages. The higher oil goes, the higher prices will rise within Mexico and the higher the prices that imports will cost.

Now we are entering a period in which prices are going to rise for two different reasons.

The first cause will be the growing scarcity of oil in the world. The Central Banks cannot do anything about this rise in prices caused by a greater and greater scarcity of oil. From here on, oil will be subject to a rationing due to scarcity, but the countries which have the advantage of issuing reserve currencies can “jump the waiting line” for their ration and simply issue more banking digits to ensure their supply. When they “jump the waiting line” and create more digital money to get their oil, they are creating a world inflation of prices.

The second cause will originate in the world’s financial system which is terribly damaged by bad investments made in recent years. The main Central Banks will create gigantic quantities of money in an attempt to save the busted banks. This tsunami of digital money intended to save the banks – bankers are always saved – will destroy the value of the dollar and consequently the value of the Mexican peso.

Suddenly, in 2014 there will be a great fall in the number of digits entering Mexico, because there will be no more oil to export. The social and political trauma will be enormous. The kind of government to which we have become accustomed will not survive the huge financial hole caused by the absence of $60 billion dollars of annual oil sales, or whatever tens of billions future exports may amount to.

I see an endless number of articles by experts on our present day problems, but I think I am the first, or among the first, to point out that we are in a huge mess in this world, because the world has disregarded the fundamental change in the nature of the dollar, on August 15, 1971. On that date, the dollar was no longer both a means of exchange and a means of payment. It became only a means of exchange. No one seems to have noticed the difference!

It is because the world has not taken notice of this fundamental change in the nature of the dollar, that we have the present mess. I need only refer to the explosion in Central Bank reserves which has taken place in recent years, as “means of exchange” accumulate in Central Bank computers (not vaults!). The amount stands today, at close to $7 TRILLION (valued in dollar digits), which is a sum utterly unnecessary for handling trade and other international so-called “payments”

 

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Re: Peak Oil Decline Eased?

First of all, I don't think increasing recovery by 10% will stop peak oil.  In most uses, this technology has only slowed the rate of decline.  In others, it has increased production in varying amounts.  Either way, by the time this technology starts spreading, oil prices will probably be much higher and world production will be falling.  Hopefully by then, people will start using the stuff more wisely. 

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Re: Peak Oil Decline Eased?

Better explanation of the technology:

 

http://www.oilandgasinquirer.com/article.asp?article=magazine%2F100104%2FMAG2010_J40000.html

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Iraq Could Delay Peak Oil a Decade

Leo, take a look at this...

an excerpt I found "amusing" for lack of a better term:

TOD wrote:

At the same time, in my view this is not really a good thing for the rest of us, as it allows us to postpone the inevitable for a little while longer. To use Richard Heinberg's party metaphor it's as though Dick Cheney and his crew managed to organize one last trip to the liquor store before everyone was too blind drunk to drive. Now the party can stagger on till everyone is really wasted.  Sprawl in the US and Europe, sprawl-enabled-obesity, SUVs, growing Chinese auto-dependence, growing carbon emissions etc, all get a new lease on life.

While it is entirely possibile that a combination of factors may cause the plateau to continue for some time, we will all have to pay the piper at some point. Given the geopolitical instability in the middle east and all the things that must happen prior to new technologies coming on line in a meaningful way, it is far from a given that the plateau will be maintained.

No matter what happens, becoming more energy independent now has few if any negative side effects. I hope we use any time that is afforded us very wisely.

Best,

R

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Re: Iraq Could Delay Peak Oil a Decade

Pushing the plateau further also gives more time to switch over, as unlikely as it seems.  But if oil prices continue above $80, more people will be interested in more efficient vehicles/houses.

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Re: Peak Oil Decline Eased?

leo, possibly as of this year, global production could start declining at 4% pa. It makes no difference if this doesn't happen until next year or the next....  If Iraq goes up 10 Mbd in six years, global production will have gone down 20% in the meantime..... and that's more than 12 Mbd.

Exploiting Iraq to that extent, and let's not forget 12Mbd is almost as high as the best Saudi Arabia ever managed with over double the reserves, will take squillions of the folding stuff, which will come from.......??

Mike

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Re: Peak Oil Decline Eased?

Jeez, Mike. I had to google both squillions and folding stuff.

You must not be from around here.

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Re: Peak Oil Decline Eased?
Damnthematrix wrote:

leo, possibly as of this year, global production could start declining at 4% pa. It makes no difference if this doesn't happen until next year or the next....  If Iraq goes up 10 Mbd in six years, global production will have gone down 20% in the meantime..... and that's more than 12 Mbd.

Exploiting Iraq to that extent, and let's not forget 12Mbd is almost as high as the best Saudi Arabia ever managed with over double the reserves, will take squillions of the folding stuff, which will come from.......??

Mike

I'm not arguing with you Mike... but

Cambridge Research measures the CURRENT decline of the top 811 oil fields as 4.5% per year.

Unfortunately we've kind of known this was going to happen since the 70's using a US oil production pattern and extrapolating (oil depletion in the US vs. oil reserve discoveries). In nearly 40 years we've done diddly squat to get off mainlining oil. So if we extend the time limit what makes anyone think we'll use that time wisely, history shows that is not probable, all that'll happen is that when the plateau begins it's terminal drop. Everyone will be Jonesing all the more for less of the good stuff.

I'd prefer to see a gradual decline to as a forcing function to a movement to alternatives rather than boost production hoping we can use that energy to rapidly convert, which I don't think we'll do.

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Re: Peak Oil Decline Eased?

Can anyone clarify how making the plateau last longer will make the eventual decline steeper?

And what are the odds of having peaked already? (would appreciate links to the actual data on this stuff)

I've seen the crash course but I'm still trying to get my head around peak oil.

Thanks in advance.

ps. English is not my native language so I hope I'm making any sense.

pps. Why do I skip a line every time I press enter (Tried the above buttons, didn't work. I'm a noob I know Tongue out)

 

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Re: Peak Oil Decline Eased?
theDutchguy wrote:

Can anyone clarify how making the plateau last longer will make the eventual decline steeper?

 

The total area under the curve(amount of total reserves) will remain the same.  So, if the plateau lasts longer, the descending slope must be steeper to keep the area under the curve the same. At least, that is my understanding.

I hope that makes sense.  Maybe someone could post some pictures of examples.

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Re: Peak Oil Decline Eased?
leo0648 wrote:

I found this company with technology to increase oil recovery by 10-15%.  Basically they pulsate the injection of H20 and CO2 instead of a steady flow. 

Actually this is very old technology and very messy really.  1) CO2 is not equitably available to every oil field.  2) Few reservoirs have the required properties to benefit from the process. 3) The CO2 eventually comes back out during the process....oops more GHG.  4) Break-even costs are at least$100/bbl 

On a small scale in very select "stripper well" areas on their last leg this is a very good thing but making a dent in our 1,000 barrels per second thirst is not likely.

BJ

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Re: Peak Oil Decline Eased?

Injection technology is old, but what about pulsating the injection at various frequencies?  I take it you didn't read the press releases where Pemex, BP, Encana, Denburry Resources, and others have experienced large increases in production over there already existing secondary recovery methods?

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Re: Peak Oil Decline Eased?

I think President Obama has figured out that world chaos because of oil depletion is a serious near future consequence therefore he proposed the nuke power plants in his state of the union address. Obama must be aware that trying to bring nukes back is going to bring massive protests and nobody is going to want one in their backyard, but it really is an indicator from our Capital that something isn't right with our energy supplies.

The oil crisis must be coming with a few years like the poster who showed Mexico stopping exports in 2014, otherwise I think the push to expand Solar, Wind, Geothermal and other renewables would of been mentioned as a major energy initiative but instead we get radioctive waste because the technology has already been developed and they might get built so fast that the public won't be able to stop them only demonstrate and lie down in roadways and such but if the Manhattan Project could develop the Bomb from scratch while pioneering nuclear plant technology in 4 years the construction of new nuke plants could probably be done in 2-3 years even with the red tape if the Obama Administration pushes it. I'm sure the republicans are'bt going to object.

 

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Re: Peak Oil Decline Eased?

I think President Obama has figured out that world chaos because of oil depletion is a serious near future consequence therefore he proposed the nuke power plants in his state of the union address. Obama must be aware that trying to bring nukes back is going to bring massive protests and nobody is going to want one in their backyard, but it really is an indicator from our Capital that something isn't right with our energy supplies.

The oil crisis must be coming within a few years like the poster who showed Mexico stopping exports in 2014, otherwise I think the push to expand Solar, Wind, Geothermal and other renewables would of been mentioned as a major energy initiative but instead we get radioctive waste because the technology has already been developed and they might get built so fast that the public won't be able to stop them only demonstrate and lie down in roadways and such but if the Manhattan Project could develop the Bomb from scratch while pioneering nuclear plant technology in 4 years the construction of new nuke plants could probably be done in 2-3 years even with the red tape if the Obama Administration pushes it. I'm sure the republicans are'nt going to object.

 

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Re: Peak Oil Decline Eased?

Hello Ron,

I fully agree with your opinion regarding President Obama pushing forward the building of nuclear power station's throughout the US within a shorter time-frame than the past due to resource deplession fears. I also agree entirely that the Republican party will play no small part in this political arena in closing down many of the shrinking options toward them being built as leverage toward re-election rather than to the overall benefit of the country in either the short or long term; that being my own opinion of course.

As Cuba was able to transition from imported Russian oil in the 1990's where there food base was moncrop, to a permaculture low energy reform based on do or die as a nation, so I compare the political will of China, who take advancement more to account than through the individual in the population (a population governed for the betterment of the overall), so as to build nuclear power stations in their country in a third of the times that any in Europe or the US, all told.

I stress that nuclear is but a stop gap with depleting uranium US and global stock-piles ...

Thankyou for commenting on the deplession article I posted recently and I look forward to seeing you writing on the forum.

My Very Best,

Paul

 

 

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Re: Peak Oil Decline Eased?

"Obama must be aware that trying to bring nukes back is going to bring massive protests and nobody is going to want one in their backyard,"

I had one in my backyard so to speak for four years when I was on a nuke sub, kind of liked it, kept the lights on and the place warm.

I saw the movie 'Moon' over the weekend, interesting in the begining where they talked about running out of energy in a company ad.

http://movies.yahoo.com/movie/1810031757/info

 

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