Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank and IMF?

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Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank and IMF?

I have found this website quite fascinating. I have questions about the ideas presented on Peak Oil. I am writing this from just out of Deadhorse, Alaska, where I am working on the Prudhoe Bay Oil field. I am a structural engineer who moved to Alaska a year and a half ago to work with an oilfield service company, and, to gain a little knowledge on oilfield work, I looked to a few sources.

I came across a book and speech by an author named Lindsey Williams called "The Energy Non-Crisis". The title caught my eye because my interest in Geothermal power and steam engines had shown me that there is enough heat energy under the US to provide the worlds energy needs for 30+ trillion years--all the nuclear, coal, and gas powered electric
generation plants do nothing more than boil water to turn a steam turbine.  In his book and speeches, he tells of his experience on the Trans Alaska Pipeline in the mid 70s when he sat on executive board meetings, at which time a massive discovery, perhaps bigger than any field in Saudi, Iraq, or Iran at Gull Island (8 miles northeast of Deadhorse), was made that would have made the US completely energy independent for at least 200+ years. He explains that before this could reach news headlines, it was classified by the US government overnight, under stiff pressure from the World Bank and IMF, whose partner organization, the Federal Reserve, has hijacked the US money supply ever since this non-federal unconstitutional cartel was formed in the early 1900s.

Mr. Williams says that Peak Oil is a myth propagated by those in whose interest it is to control the world by energy. He says that the IMF and World Bank are the ones who tell OPEC and others what they are going to pay for a barrel of oil on any given day, not just free market forces of supply and demand. Mr. Williams gave a speech about 3 months ago, when oil was nearly 150 per barrel, indicating that he had a call from an old acquaintance 'elitist' who told Mr. Williams that they were going to drop oil down to below $50 per barrel to 'soften up Iran', then raise it up to $150-200 per
barrel afterward. Certainly the US and global demand hasn't dropped more than 2-3%, or anywhere near enough to cause oil to swing from $147 down to below $50 as we have seen in recent days. I saw Governor Sarah Palin on the news a few months ago saying that Alaska has been prevented from fulfilling it's end of the bargain when it became a state--namely to sell its oil resources to the lower 48. I recently saw a FOX news snippet of a liberal California congresswoman grilling the CEO of Chevron for $5/gallon gas, and his response was that if the government continues to prevent the oil companies from drilling and exploring where they need to, and demand remains the same, she would think that $5/gallon gas is quite a bargain. I have seen other evidence that the government very actively restricts production, and Mr. Williams would argue
that it is ultimately from pressure by the elitists in the IMF and World Bank. It is my point of view that there are efforts related to oil the same way that Debeers is with diamonds--most of it is being hoarded to artificially inflate the price.
Nevertheless, your logic behind the peak oil graphs is compelling, for there is a finite amount of oil, and the 40 years between exploration and production bell curves makes sense. However, I strongly suspect that the exploration and production curves are being artificially suppressed. I have not completed all of your crash course lessons, but I am
anxious to complete them. Thank you for your efforts at educating the public on this vital information.

 An excellent current news article that talks more about the World Bank's and IMF's role in the designed destruction of the US dollar can be found on Yahoo! Finance.  It is entitled "How the Financial Crisis Was Built Into the System" by Robert Kiyosaki.  It can be found here: http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/richricher/124339 

 

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...

Hi Edward1972,

If what Lindsey Williams says is true, it brings to mind to me that the puppet masters orchestrate things even more than previously imagined. Of course, you are correct regarding the price of oil and its dramatic swing down does not seem possible to be explained purely by the somewhat lessened demand. Of course, the other side of that is true too, the dramatic run up in the ladst year or two is equally unexplainable purely due to the increase in demand.

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...

Edward1972

You speak so freely I pray it remains so. Surely the heart of man is not so wicked. Those who might do such things as hide oil must be victims of a bad childhood. No, no that can't be so that would mean they are mean spirited. The elitists are hiding it for the common good. It must need to be hidden! They have a Utopia planned for all of us even the least, the most dependent, the fragile little ones who look just like cute little piggys in glass jars at the nature museums. Besides the fifty million little piggys added to the recycling bin for new oil since 1973 "who would have added to the population explosion" will be added to the vast pool of gasoline being stored for us all to be used just as we please.

No Edward1972 these are elitists of righteousness, valor and just plain good intent. Be careful here I detected a degree of ungrateful suspicion in your writings. We here at the forum will not stand for anything other than warm soothing catharsis when mentioning our benevolent elitists brothers by skin. We love them and more importantly they love us!

In His service,

Ron

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...

Edward1972 or who ever you are! You must be a plant from some underground worm factory. I Just read that despicable link  http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/richricher/124339   Shame on you it is all LIES LIES LIES!!! You are a victim of that alien author impersonating a righteous man of skin. YOU WILL BE DEPROGRAMED! Wait oooooh now I get it! You are one of them! You will be annihilated just like your imposter author friend for assaulting righteous men of skin.

Pleasant dreams my precious,

Ron

 

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...

I came across a book and speech by an author named Lindsey Williams
called "The Energy Non-Crisis". The title caught my eye because my
interest in Geothermal power and steam engines had shown me that there is enough heat energy under the US to provide the worlds energy needs for 30+

Be warned. The environmentalists here dismiss him as a know-nothing preacher.  

Nevertheless, your logic behind the peak oil graphs is compelling, for
there is a finite amount of oil, and the 40 years between exploration
and production bell curves makes sense. However, I strongly suspect
that the exploration and production curves are being artificially
suppressed.

Their doomsday charts play on the fact that there is no economic reason to have an inventory of known reserves beyond 20-40 years. I remember during the Arab Embargo, the environmentalists were screaming we have only 20 years of oil left.

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...

I don't know where you get the idea that Peak Oil is an environmentalists' conspiracy,,,,,  most greenies I know take a lot of convincing.  The real protagonists of PO are retired geologists, and one Matt Simmons who is a merchant banker for gawd's sake....  I struggled with the Green Party here in Australia to make PO an election issue for years and gave up....  they have finally taken up the mantra, too late as usual, waste of space the lot of them...

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...

And you'd hardly call Chris M a greenie...!

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...

Please Matrix, I hate that word "conspiracy." Conspiracy implies some sinister plot. Environmentalists share a common set of values which affects how they interpret information. They have a romantic longing for a more primitive society coexisting with nature in a pristine environment. I believe they are slightly misanthropic.

The real protagonists of PO are retired geologists, and one Matt Simmons who is a merchant banker for gawd's sake

That doesn't prove anything. There are research scientists who are creationists.

they have finally taken up the mantra, too late as usual, waste of space the lot of them...

It's a false issue. Human society will find a balance between energy supplies and energy consumption. I look beyond fossil fuels and see a nuclear future with no limits.

And you'd hardly call Chris M a greenie...!

I never thought about it. If Chris is falling into a Malthusian mindset, he needs to re-examine his assumptions. The short term problems are real. I believe that will be the stimulus for some major paradigm shifts.

 

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...

Hey Edward1972-

   Welcome to the forum!  Thanks for sharing your insights and perspective on energy resources, as well as the bigger picture, I found them very interesting!  I think one of the strengths of this forum is that we are enriched by the views of contributors with such a variery of backgrounds, knowledge and perspectives.  

   Thanks also for the link to the Robert Kiyosaki article "How the Financial Crisis Was Built into the System."  The section " Three Approaches to a Crumbling Economy", where he tells the stories of 3 different couples from Zimbabwe -what actions they took before their currency/economy collapsed, the consequences of those actions, and what they would do different- was very insightful.  Definitely food for thought given we may be heading down that same path.

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...
hewittr wrote:

It's a false issue. Human society will find a balance between energy supplies and energy consumption. I look beyond fossil fuels and see a nuclear future with no limits.

hewittr, it's thinking that the future has no limits that got us into this mess in the first place.  Homo Sapiens never learns.....  just ask Easter Islanders. 

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...

I'll tell you what I told Switters. I"m tired of arguing with you. I see enormous amounts of  energy waiting to be  harnessed. You two could be in the middle of the ocean and see nothing but sand.

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...

some of you really are a sarcastic bunch, apart from that there is another who talks like Moses.  

Peak Oil has been bantered about since the 1930. It was derived to explain a very simple fact. How do we now when an oil reserve have reached limited supply, pressure decreases exponentially and it begins to cost more to pump the stuff out of the ground. The bell cure for some oil fields as we know are or thought to be almost at depletion levels. This is a myth, there are more oil reserves and caped oil fields around the world than Joe public are allowed to believe.  

This is logic depicted by the system as it stands. “The market has only two inputs to set prices and that is supply and demand. At the moment supply is completely unknown and demand is hysterically driven by fear".

The problem is that we are relying on guesses from producer countries as to how much oil they think they have left. No wonder people are scared. How can businesses make any sort of long term modelling when they have no idea what price they will be paying next year or the year after that, let alone five years in the future or 10-20 years when oil supplies may have dried up.

Is it not fear that drives us...Yes It is exactly what they would have you believe. Have we been sucking the globe dry for a thousand years no ware even near 100 years.

In 1806 the internal combustion engine was invented, by 1892 the diesel engine, Henry Ford (1863-1947) in the time from 1901 to present day and taking in to account all other modes of transport. The use of oil as a fossil fuel until 1979 was infinitesimally small including world war II. Have we exhausted the worlds natural supply of oil in only 60 short years? if so then we are in real trouble.

Or their is another theory, Peak Oil is Planned Obsolescence. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_obsolescence

The nail in the coffin may well be hyperinflation by the end of 2009. I would also bet my pention fund that Peak Oil Curves are artificially suppressed by the world bank.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2008/NEW052908A.htm

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...

Will Obama reign in big oil?

http://therealnews.com/t/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=2867&updaterx=2008-11-29+13%3A22%3A47 

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...

And who would Moses beSmileGotta love you folks

Wait minute that just doesn't sound right, where is my staff!

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...

Edward1972,

Welcome to the community. Glad to see your post.

I’m moderately familiar with Mr. Williams and have watched one of his speeches twice, though I haven’t read his book. I found him to be an interesting and pleasant speaker, and his cadences and inflections clearly indicate his preacher background.

Unlike, perhaps, many Peak Oil advocates (and I’m one) I don’t see Mr. Williams as an adversary and I certainly don’t see him somehow disproving PO or claiming it to be myth. In fact, he more or less buttresses the main thrust of PO through his assertions of oil’s vital role in our modern, industrialized society. Indeed, much of the narrative of his tale of conspiracy wouldn’t make much sense without the central role played by oil. It is precisely because of what I call the pixie dust nature of oil that manipulating humanity’s access to it and price paid would have such devastating ramifications. Mr. Williams echos this sentiment several times during the presentation I saw as he references plastics and "everyday" items like toothbrushes.

To reiterate an important theme here, Peak Oil is primarily an issue of when. Most people understand that oil is a finite resource that takes significant energy and dollar-investment to acquire from the Earth, that it is indispensable to our modern lifestyle full of technological marvels, that it is the cornerstone of the economic juggernaut of continual growth, and that its loss (slow or otherwise) would have serious impacts on our modern way of life if adequate replacements aren’t waiting in the wings to fill the gap.

Mr. Williams agrees with all of these points. So I see him basically saying that PO is real and serious but simply that it’s coming sooner than it should or would because of a government/big oil conspiracy.

Again to restate an incredibly important point: The conspiracy Mr. Williams is supposedly blowing the lid on wouldn’t have legs if oil weren’t so critical to our way of life. So it’s almost like this, because PO is real and serious, the theoretical conspirators went ahead with their conspiracy. I hope you follow and apologize if I’m repeating myself.

Think of it this way. If oil weren’t that important to our modern lifestyle, if the price of oil or its volatility didn’t matter to virtually every industry in the world, and if we had so much oil we didn’t know what to do with it, what would the point of their conspiracy be?

As far as the veracity of the conspiracy goes, who knows? Without a doubt he absolutely offers no proof whatsoever. However, who could be surprised by an attempt by the government and/or big business to disenfranchise or impoverish the masses?

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WARNING: Maths content...

hewittr said: "Their doomsday charts play on the fact that there is no economic reason
to have an inventory of known reserves beyond 20-40 years. I remember
during the Arab Embargo, the environmentalists were screaming we have only 20 years of oil left."

The point is, had there NOT been an embargo during the first and second oil shocks of the 70's/80's, Peak Oil would have occured in 2000.  This has nothing to do with millenium phobia or whatever, just merely a coincidence,  BECAUSE so much oil was NOT consumed then, as can be clearly seen when viewing the global oil consumption curve dipping down around then, Peak Oil was delayed by some five or six years.

Economics cannot create oil.  How can economics increase the oil inventory beyond 20-40 years?  This is nonsense.  If you are not scared by some advanced mathematics (simple calculus actually) then I suggest you see this: 

http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/subpages/hubbertmaths/hubbertmaths.html

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...
hewittr wrote:

I'll tell you what I told Switters. I"m tired of arguing with you. I see enormous amounts of energy waiting to be harnessed. You two could be in the middle of the ocean and see nothing but sand.

Well, I sit in the Matrix and see nothing but DATA.  You can ignore data, that's your prerogative I guess, but don't come a-begging when the shit hits the fan... 

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...

RubberRims,

I think you need to review Chris' Crash Couse Ch. 17a http://www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse/chapter-17a-peak-oil .

Key concept #9 "Peak Oil is well defined process"

We may not know when the producing nations' have reached peak oil, but as CM has shown us that exponetial growth in demand is on a collision course with a finite and dwindling  supply.  We are importing over 10MBD (million barrels per day) because the US produces less each year and demand continues to grow.  Peak Oil is occuring now and the US is not preparing the masses for it, just like they did not prepare us for the bursting of the "housing and credit" bubbles.

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...

Matrix

Your data is incomplete. It always is when you are dealing with chaotic systems - man, geology and markets, three chaotic systems. You don't know what you think you know. Nobody does. That is why predictions with such certainty as yours have a terrible record.

 

 

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...

Yet another vast conspiracy theory rears its ugly head.  I'm surprised the trilateral commission, GM, the Vatican and the military-industrial complex aren't involved.

Some people are willing to take the word of a preacher on blind faith over the word of Matt Simmons, a banker whose career has been spent serving the banking needs of the oil industry.  His opinion on oil issues carries some weight.

As someone already pointed out, there is no real dispute that peak oil will happen, the only question is when.  The weight  of evidence suggests sooner rather than later.

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...

gtazman

At what stage of this debate do I need to do a refresher course? Who here in this forum actually knows or thinks they know by way of information, be it on the web or in a science journal the actual ammount of obtainable oil globally.

You are a bunch pundits arrogant ones at that. Quoting events in history like you are an authority on the subject of oil supply and demand. Please be subjective and don't over do it. 

Yes we understand exponential growth. Please also understand how big this planet is. and rationalise what is actually in vast abundance but probably unobtainable at this moment.

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...
Doug wrote:

Yet another vast conspiracy theory rears its ugly head.  I'm surprised the trilateral commission, GM, the Vatican and the military-industrial complex aren't involved.

However, Henry Kissinger was! 

Doug wrote:

 

Some people are willing to take the word of a preacher on blind faith over the word of Matt Simmons, a banker whose career has been spent serving the banking needs of the oil industry.  His opinion on oil issues carries some weight.

It's gives them something to latch on to I suspect.

Quick, random side thought here: A parallel may be the American action movie where the hero basically escapes a never ending series of impossible to escape scenarios at the last second. This has clearly seeped into the arena of science and technology.

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...

RubberRims, you wrote: "You are a bunch pundits arrogant ones at that. Quoting events in
history like you are an authority on the subject of oil supply and
demand. Please be subjective and don't over do it."

As it turns out, I do consider myself an expert on Peak Oil.  I have been studying this issue for over eight years, read every book on the matter, and have designed and presented my own powerpoint presentation to which I have shown to people as high up as Federal Government Ministers in Australia.  My credibility is way higher than yours......

For instance, you said in an earlier post that PO had been bandied around since the 1930's.  This is patently incorrect.  M King Hubbert first propose the [then] theory of PO in 1954 when he correctly predicted the US would peak in 1970. 

The size of the planet has absolutely NOTHING to do with how much oil there might be left to find.  Did you know NASA mapped the entire planet with radar, looking for oil as one of the activities?  They never found anything we didn't already know about, except for the odd puddle.  There's a very good reason why the year the most oil ever found was 1964.....

Oil fields are actually a freak of nature.  Several very specific criteria have to be met to 'create' an oil field.  The organic matter has to be the right type, it has to be buried at the right time, it needs to be at a specific range of depths to form oil, it has to be trapped in specific types of source rocks, and it has to be capped with more special rock formations that do not allow it to escape that source rock.  I have read oil geology books that state that 99% of ALL THE OIL EVER CREATED was simply released to the environment (at different stages of formation) and that we are in fact lucky to have any at all....

I think it is YOU who needs to go and do a bit of homework before writing all the crap you come out with.... 

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...

 

Damnthematrix, you are not winning an argument, it's not a competition to assess who is right or wrong. 8 years of asserting your brain in the direction of oil and it's qualities have done you no favours. You come across in your writing as being quite arrogant. You live in a world far beyond your understanding and yet making your point seams to be the one thing you get the most plessure from. Keep up the good fight.

I hope you will agree with me on this statement, The worst optimistic estimation of peak production forecasts global decline will begin by 2015 or maybe later? When Oil prices hit the stars and is close to $160 a barrel and rising, and a toothbrush cost $10. For all your understanding I hope you are prepared.

It has been a pleasure illustrating my optimism about the human race. on the whole I think we are all delusional and in denial about our place in the world. Alongside every other living creture we are by fare the  most dangerous. Still you cant help but imaging where we might be in the next 100 years. Good luck

     

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...
RubberRims wrote:

Damnthematrix, you are not winning an argument, it's not a competition to assess who is right or wrong.

You're right it shouldn't be.  But it concerns me, no it EXASPERATES me that you keep posting inaccurate and misleading stuff, and use it as arguments to prove you are right when you clearly have no idea.  It also really bothers me that someone might actually believe you, at a time when we are running out of the stuff, and we have clearly urgent issues to deal with.

So stop spreading this rubbish....   If I sound arrogant, well it's more ut of pure frustration than anything else.

At this stage, I can't see any other way forward than to just ignore you..... 

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...

Oil fields are actually a freak of nature.  Several very specific
criteria have to be met to 'create' an oil field.  The organic matter
has to be the right type, it has to be buried at the right time, it
needs to be at a specific range of depths to form oil, it has to be
trapped in specific types of source rocks, and it has to be capped with
more special rock formations that do not allow it to escape that source
rock.  I have read oil geology books that state that 99% of ALL THE OIL
EVER CREATED was simply released to the environment (at different
stages of formation) and that we are in fact lucky to have any at
all....

Two points Matrix

I remember reading from other sources that the amount of oil, known and consumed, far exceeds what could be produced from the total of fossil remains.

Other sources, notably the Russians, claim that oil is naturally produced as trapped methane rises to the surface. They developed the deep drilling technology to get to it. Also, I read reports that some wells have a habit of filling up again after they are emptied. That would lend credence to the abiotic theory.

Care to comment.

I don't doubt that your are knowledgeable on the subject, but you have to be mindful that the paradigm on which you are educated, could be wrong. This is a common occurence in the history of scientific discovery. What we could be witnessing is a limit on the rate at which oil can be drawn from the ground, not the supply.

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...

 

hewittr, you are bang on the money. staring In the face of adversity, why is the logical conclusion not seen to be evident. Supply as it stands cannot meet demand we understand this. We understand short reserves. We understand human fear. But we don't want to think control of Oil is the true nature of the game. is it conceivable there might be more Oil than we know about?

Yes every thing indicates that we are running out. If you knew this and had control over supply what would you do?

"I know what I would do, control supply and cut production to fall just shot of demand". Cause and effect is evident, every thing moves in one direction and we get inflationary pressure. 

Sorry Matrix, I hope you don't think I am spouting rubbish here. Please also answer, Russians claim that oil is naturally produced. Don't debunk this. Or possibly you are also a geologist who know something we don't. Ether way this has been an interesting debate, perhaps a little one sided?

If the CNN news article is anything to go by. Deflation then inflation all in the space of 8 months. It's a rollercoster ride witch it is making me sick. 

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/BUSINESS/11/29/oil.saudi.arabia.opec.ap/index.html?iref=mpstoryview 

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Re: Peak Oil Curves Artificially Suppressed by World Bank ...
RubberRims wrote:

Please also answer, Russians claim that oil is naturally produced.
Don't debunk this. Or possibly you are also a geologist who know
something we don't. Ether way this has been an interesting debate,
perhaps a little one sided

So - you want an anwer, but not an answer that debunks the theory?  Perhaps you are one of the Russian Geologists that knows more than everyone else here.  I think most of us would be ecstatic to find out there is an infinite supply of oil.  Oh, wait a second, that reminds me.. I have to post the other quote..

hewittr wrote:

What we could be witnessing is a limit on the rate at which oil can be drawn from the ground, not the supply

Thanks hewittr - you make a great straight man(!)  After all, as already described in the Crash Course on Peak Oil which I am sure you recall watching, it is EXACTLY the issue of oil extraction rate that matters.  Peak Global Oil production pertains to reaching a limit on our collective ability to economically (both money-wise AND energy-wise) pump oil from the earth.  If we had an infinite pool of oil - but could only pull out 1 barrel of oil a day, well, whats the point?  Likewise, If it costs the energy equivalent of 1.1 barrels of oil to extract 1.0 barrel of oil then we are probably going to wait until we find more efficient ways to pump the oil.  Until then - we would experience a severe shortage of liquid fuels derived from petroleum even knowing there was pumpable oil available to us.

RubberRims - this site has already been down the path of discussing abiotic oil - before broaching this issue again please refer to the following discussion threads (search for the word 'abiotic' to narrow the discussion to the points of interest:

http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/endless-oil/8704
http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/peak-oil-hoax/7976
http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/oil-70-transportation-so-essentially...

hewittr: RubberRims had the excuse of not being here during those past discussions, you do not - so why dredge this up again?

 

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