Peak Oil & Bakken Shale

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Transcend's picture
Transcend
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 28 2012
Posts: 55
Peak Oil & Bakken Shale

I read something back in October from Monty Guild (http://www.guildinvestment.com/2011/10/07/100611/). I thought with Chris' recent post on the Bakken (http://www.peakprosperity.com/martensonreport/preparing-future-defined-peak-oil) it would be appropriate to revisit Monty's suggestion.

In that particular newsletter, Monty writes "The word is getting out to the public about the extent of these energy producing fields that are located in many areas of the country.  The fields go by names like Marcellus, Utica, Bakken, Woodford, Barnett, Haynesville, Eagle Ford, Permian Basin, Bossier, Fayetteville, Piceance Basin, Niobrara, San Juan Basin, Monterrey and many others."

Bakken was just one of the names mentioned. I wanted to open this forum up to everyone to see what they think about all the other names listed above and the rest of the newsletter.  Does Monty have a point?  Do these shale formations stand a chance or is Chris' latest analysis seem to be correct?

Please let me know your thoughts.

Thank you,

Adam

Doug's picture
Doug
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 1 2008
Posts: 3125
Adam

First, welcome to the forum.

I know nothing about most of the formations you mention.  I know a little about two of them, the Bakken because I've taken an interest and looked into it, and the Marcellus because I live on top of it.

Mr. Guild seems to be overly optimistic about our energy future.  As I understand it, fracking in shale formations, particularly for oil, is a short term proposition.  A well produces for a couple years and the collapses by about 75-80%.  After that it can continue to produce for several years at ever decreasing rates.  So, you get an initial flush, but then have to drill in exponential numbers to maintain steady production.  They've been drilling in the Bakken for about 10 years now and there are definite limits on how many wells you can drill on individual plays.  I don't know where we are in that progression, but, again as I understand it, reserves have been overestimated.

The Marcellus isn't producing much oil, but continues to supply NG as it has for a long time.  I get a royalty check for a gas field underlying my property that has been producing for many years.  Last year I collected the princely sum of $46.  Picture me in Scrooge McDuck's vault.  Hope that helps.

Doug

Poet's picture
Poet
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Joined: Jan 21 2009
Posts: 1891
Mice, Not Elephants

None of them are like Ghawar or a even conventional natural gas field. All of them are small and require numerous wells. And so far they extraction profiles like Doug has mentioned, that look like a large blip followed by years of tiny trickles. (Not to mentionall the environmental pollution, degredation and earthquakes documented by government agencies.)

Poet

Transcend's picture
Transcend
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Joined: Jan 28 2012
Posts: 55
Permian Basin - Cline Shale

There wasn't much input on this forum. Here's an update from the Permian Basin.  Anyone's thoughts would be appreciated?  I'm hearing mixed things on these shale plays.  I understand the inital production is huge and then trickles out for the remainder of the life of the reserve, but how many are there? 

How meaningful is this post on seekingalpha:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/535701-the-permian-basin-oil-play-unleashed?source=email_authors_alerts&ifp=0

earthwise's picture
earthwise
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Joined: Aug 10 2009
Posts: 846
A drop in oil prices to come?

 

Although only tangentially related to the thread topic, I thought this was a good read nonetheless. It involves a contention by Porter Stansberry that the price of oil would significantly drop over the next 12 months and a powerful but friendly rebuttal to Porter's notion by his friend Marin Katusa. I found it informative; I hope you do as well.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/marin-katusa-vs-porter-stansberry

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