Peak Oil and Iraq

5 posts / 0 new
Last post
ewilkerson's picture
ewilkerson
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 18 2010
Posts: 390
Peak Oil and Iraq

I have read as much as I could about how much Iraq is capable of influencing Peak Oil.  The numbers that I come up with is that the 12 million number for production is near impossible, at least in the next decade.  The IEA and CERA even say it will be 6 million at best any time soon.  .Second, the articles suggesting Iraq is a game changer do not take into account the affect of the  4m b/d per year decline in the older fields.  All the charts I have seen on new production other than Iraq is small.  There are far more fields in decline than new ones coming on.  Then you have the big question of the Saudis.  I'm in the camp that they do not  have the spare capacity for much of a sustained increase than they are pumping now.  Granted, if everyone got their act together around the world we could put off Peak, but we all know the answer to that.  Narrowing that point, I believe when we leave Iraq, it will fall apart.

I would love some input from you guys who have been at this longer than me.

Cheers

 

Tycer's picture
Tycer
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 26 2009
Posts: 610
Re: Peak Oil and Iraq

What makes you think our government has any intention of ever leaving Iraq? 

Link: The United States is building a fortress in Baghdad's Green Zone to serve as its embassy.

When I read how deep and large that thing is, my suspicions were bolstered that WMDs were simply propaganda and that peak oil was the real reason and that Iraq is just the beginning. 

I believe that when the tipping point is reached in global awareness of peak oil, the chance of the world's governments playing well together is a remote possibility and that "jet contrail" seen off our west coast will be more common.

ewilkerson's picture
ewilkerson
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 18 2010
Posts: 390
Re: Peak Oil and Iraq

Yes.  I certainly agree that was the reason for the war.  Matt Simmons was on Cheney's energy summit and he was a peakist.  I, agree, too, we may just tell them we are staying.  That will be a big mistake.  Those people hate us being there, as do terrorsts everywhere.  I agree, again, that if we need more, we'll go for it but, China is going to be after it, as well, so we all may be gone in a flash.  My central question, however, is, isn't the decline rate for old fields too high for Iraq to catch up with it and prevent shortages?  When you add growth in oil's use the problem is even larger.

Tycer's picture
Tycer
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 26 2009
Posts: 610
Re: Peak Oil and Iraq

Yes, Iraq will not be able to fix the leak in the dam. We're late to the party and we're gonna have to pay the higher price.

ewilkerson's picture
ewilkerson
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 18 2010
Posts: 390
Re: Peak Oil and Iraq

Yes.  That is my belief, as well.  It is funny to see some papers gloss over thr truth and put more emphsis on the reserves.  Depletion is never mentioned.  I did get a letter to the editor printed in my local paper today.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Login or Register to post comments