Peak Oil: 1 Hour Interview w/ Matt Simmons & Dr. Hirsh

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Nichoman's picture
Nichoman
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Peak Oil: 1 Hour Interview w/ Matt Simmons & Dr. Hirsh

For those concerned about Energy and Oil...listen to the 1 hour interview w/ Matt Simmons and Dr. Hirsh yesterday.   They provide new information about credit crisis impacts to production that are Bone Chilling.   Short answer:  here come significant and probably widespread and persistent shortages soon to add to economic woes within a year or two at most.    Game is Over!

 http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

 

Nichoman

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Re: Peak Oil: 1 Hour Interview w/ Matt Simmons & Dr. Hirsh

NPR did brief segment this morning on peak oil, and mentioned Matt Simmons. 

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Re: Peak Oil: 1 Hour Interview w/ Matt Simmons & Dr. Hirsh

Yeah, Matt Simmons is completely correct. We now think that we're in a huge paper crisis, but the biggest issue we face is an oil crisis. And you can't print more of that.

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Re: Peak Oil: 1 Hour Interview w/ Matt Simmons & Dr. Hirsh

I highly recommend that anyone who doubts the reality and implications of peak oil listen to this audio program.  If you are willing to set aside your beliefs and resistance, you cannot possibly listen to Simmons and Hirsch - two of the most informed oil analysts out there - and deny that peak oil is real, imminent and will have widespread and potentially catastropic effects on our economy.

In the audio Hirsch reiterated a commonly held misconception: "There is a prevailing feeling that renewables will solve all of our problems.  That is just plain wrong."

Hirsch is no "gloomer & doomer alarmist".  He knows what he's talking about.  He's an energy advisor who has managed technology programs in oil and natural gas exploration and , petroleum refining, synthetic fuels, fusion, fission, renewables, defense technologies, chemical analysis, and basic research.

 

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Re: Peak Oil: 1 Hour Interview w/ Matt Simmons & Dr. Hirsh
switters wrote:

I highly recommend that anyone who doubts the reality and implications of peak oil listen to this audio program.  If you are willing to set aside your beliefs and resistance, you cannot possibly listen to Simmons and Hirsch - two of the most informed oil analysts out there - and deny that peak oil is real, imminent and will have widespread and potentially catastropic effects on our economy.

In the audio Hirsch reiterated a commonly held misconception: "There is a prevailing feeling that renewables will solve all of our problems.  That is just plain wrong."

Hirsch is no "gloomer & doomer alarmist".  He knows what he's talking about.  He's an energy advisor who has managed technology programs in oil and natural gas exploration and , petroleum refining, synthetic fuels, fusion, fission, renewables, defense technologies, chemical analysis, and basic research.

 

 

My concern is too many readers of this site still do not fully grasp the magnitude and severity of peak oil and the synergism to our evolving credit crisis.  Dr. Hirsh, as you stated is arguably the most informed person on issue.   Personally, find his comments most illuminating...balanced and professional of anyone on this subject...Matt Simmons...a close second... find occasionally gets a bit too emotional.   Dr Hirsh has a 2005 report that has held up quite well to current events. 

Their comments on up to 30 percent or more impact on production suggests...at first blush...our crisis will decend to an emergency soon.  Again...listen to audio and become informed how these two issues...energy and economic/financial  are converging to a "Perfect Storm".

 

Nichoman  

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Re: Peak Oil: 1 Hour Interview w/ Matt Simmons & Dr. Hirsh
woodman wrote:

NPR did brief segment this morning on peak oil, and mentioned Matt Simmons. 

I saw this too.  Here's what bothers me about the piece:

Quote:

According to those who believe in what's called "peak oil theory,"
world oil production has already peaked, or flattened, and in the
foreseeable future, the declining resource will inevitably change the
way we live.

This is how the journalist starts the article off.  He makes it
sound like peak oil is a "theory" to be "believed in" in the same way
that nuclear fusion and extraterristrial life are theories to be
believed in.

Peak oil is a geological certainty.  And the author even goes on to make that clear later in the article:

Quote:

Oil industry executives don't doubt that world oil production will one day peak. The debate is over when.

So
why start the article by implying that PO is just a "theory"?  I see
that all the time and it drives me crazy.  The only thing I can figure
is that the journalists themselves are in denial and it's too scary or
painful for them to come right out and say: peak oil is a reality, it
has potentially catastrophic effects, we're completely unprepared for
it, and it's happening very soon if it hasn't happened already.

That said, I think it's a good thing that PO is getting more exposure on relatively mainstream media outlets.  

 

 

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Re: Peak Oil: 1 Hour Interview w/ Matt Simmons & Dr. Hirsh

I've always wondered about Simmon's motives, given he makes money when petroleum prices rise.

One thing you can say about Simmons is, Jeezuz fuc*ing Christ! Could he be any more annoying? How many times did he interrupt the host and the other guest? Simmons has that nervous air of the desperate--like a junky that needs a fix. I wonder how big his losses are on the recent swoon in prices...

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Re: Peak Oil: 1 Hour Interview w/ Matt Simmons & Dr. Hirsh

From what I understand, Simmons is already well to do many times over. Don't think that is his motivation. No doubt he is quite passionate about this and I can only surmise how frustrating it must be, since the recent fall of oil prices, to daily have his position questioned by ignorant media people.

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Re: Peak Oil: 1 Hour Interview w/ Matt Simmons & Dr. Hirsh
r101958 wrote:

From what I understand, Simmons is already well to do many times over. Don't think that is his motivation. No doubt he is quite passionate about this and I can only surmise how frustrating it must be, since the recent fall of oil prices, to daily have his position questioned by ignorant media people.

I agree.  The guy is very well off.  I seriously doubt making more money is his motive.

Hirsch recently issued a statement telling people in the PO community to basically keep their mouths shut and not spread the word about it because it would cause too much of a "panic" if the general population knew what is really going on.  He was widely criticized for that, rightfully so. 

I think the tension between Simmons & Hirsch in the interview was due to the differences in how they see things playing out.  Simmons basically thinks the game is over if major action isn't taken immediately; even then, we won't be able to avoid a serious global energy shortage.

Hirsch, on the other hand, kept saying things like "it will take us a decade to recover".  Simmons would interrupt and say "how are we going to recover?"  

I think Hirsch is purposely padding his estimates for what the future holds to prevent people from panic.  Simmons' strategy is different.  He's shouting from the mountaintops to anyone who will listen, because of the urgency of the message and the pathetic lack of understanding of these issues in the mainstream media.

I think Hirsch is right - people will panic when they figure out the extent of the challenges we're facing.  But that's no excuse to hide the truth.  Simmons may get a little pushy at times, but it must be incredibly frustrating to know what he knows and deal with doubting Thomases every day of his life.

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Re: Peak Oil: 1 Hour Interview w/ Matt Simmons & Dr. Hirsh
Nichoman wrote:

For those concerned about Energy and Oil...listen to the 1 hour interview w/ Matt Simmons and Dr. Hirsh yesterday.   They provide new information about credit crisis impacts to production that are Bone Chilling.   Short answer:  here come significant and probably widespread and persistent shortages soon to add to economic woes within a year or two at most.    Game is Over!

http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

 

Nichoman

Thanks for the post Nichoman. Not what I wanted this AM but obviously knew was coming. 

I think it's time put our tray tables and seatbacks in the upright and locked position and get ready for the ride down. This of course translates into applying chapter 20 and implementing the self assessment criteria. If anyone thinks this is something to do in a year or so I suggest revisiting those assumptions.

I think we will be shooting through the financial issues and into the basic lifestyle impacts way sooner than can be easily conceived. Exponential Crashing may be the applicable term. The reason I say this is due to the reality that oil is also the basis for all of our other resources whether renewable or finite.

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Re: Peak Oil: 1 Hour Interview w/ Matt Simmons & Dr. Hirsh

The ever mysterious r101958 wrote: "From what I understand, Simmons is already well to do many times over," to which

Chris K replied: "I agree.  The guy is very well off.  I seriously doubt making more money is his motive."

It's not clear cut, but if he is so well off as to be of pure motives, maybe you could venture a guess as to how someone who (serving as "Investment Bankers to the Energy Industry (http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/ )") has done this:

"During 2007 Simmons closed 49 M&A transactions worth $26 billion and co-managed 10 offerings worth $4.9 billion. The firm's clients range from small, privately held companies to multi-billion dollar public entities,"

 should feel about the price of oil getting whacked enough to render evey deal underwater by...50+%?

If the Guru of petroluem investments couldn't anticipate the gyrations that Hirsch predicted, and couldn't give his clients better entry points than those accessed in '07/'08, he's not nearly as smart as he said he was; perhaps if he were to listen when other people are talking (Hirsch, for example), he wouldn't have drowned his '07/'08 clients in oil...

Of course, the game's not over and the clients may win in the end. But, Hirsch could have advised them much more profitably.

Of course you've all seen this:

 

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