Outstanding Article by Heinberg****

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r101958's picture
r101958
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 24 2008
Posts: 257
dshields's picture
dshields
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 24 2009
Posts: 599
Re: Outstanding Article by Heinberg****

this is a long article.  while there can be no doubt that growth is directly related to cheap and abundant energy, it is also not so clear that current energy prices are what is screwing up the US economy.  at some point energy prices are going to rise to where the average man is going to be unable to financially function as he/she does today but it is not clear that point has been reached yet.  here in new jersey regular gas is selling down the street from our house for $2.49 a gallon - i bought some today.  at 5 dollars a gallon it would seem to be an economic big deal.  i am not a petroleum expert but if we use a liner extrapolation, and i am not at all sure it is linear, that would put spot crude oil at around 160 dollars a barrel.  at that point we would have a recession based on energy prices alone regardless of the other economic madness that abounds these days.

no, to me, the current economic crisis is a crisis of debt, outsourcing the manufacturing capacity of the US to third world countries, crazy government policies, out of control government spending, unreasonable expectations of the people to be taken care of by the government, the voting of the people to elect politicians who promise to redistribute the wealth of the country, the loss of the people of america to stand on their historic cultural imperatives to act responsibility, vote responsibly, work hard, save money, invest in their families wisely, pay their bills, etc..  unfortunately, if you confiscate all the wealth of the top 5% of the wealthiest people in america it would only be a tiny band-aid on the economic problems - like spitting in the ocean trying to raise the water level.  the numbers are so big and scary that my brain has difficulty comprehending them.

The really scary thing is what happens when the hair brained antics that have lead to the current economic crisis intersects with sustained 160+ dollar a barrel oil.  that is when the real implosion starts.  when that happens things are going to get very ugly indeed in america.  if you live in a city i would suggest you start thinging very seriously about moving to the country.

 

Vanityfox451's picture
Vanityfox451
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Posts: 1636
Re: Outstanding Article by Heinberg****

Dshields,

I wanted to offer you a perspective in my thinking that may be misunderstood, but could well surprise you if given a little "out of the box" thinking; Something in the style of an "ahah moment" maybe. Calculating that 1 US gallon of fuel = 3.78541178 litres, an equivalent UK price in dollars works out at $6.82 per US gallon, making a gallon of petrol here over two and a half times dearer than in the US. To you, that must appear astounding?

Now for a little homework, dedicating yourself to finding out exactly how much you paid in income tax contributions from your work in 2009.

 Now calculate how much 54% of that figure is. 54%, or $1,449 Billion, (or $1.5 Trillion) was used to pay for the American war machine in 2009 I can confirm: -

 Where Your Income Tax Really Goes

http://www.warresisters.org/pages/piecha...

Total Outlays (Federal Funds): $2,650 billion
MILITARY: 54% and $1,449 billion
NON-MILITARY: 46% and $1,210 billion

By calculating your tax payment against your fuel costs, you may well come to the conclusion that the fuel at the pumps is heavily subsidised and that the true figure you're paying including half of your income tax payments is closer to $6.82 than you'd think ... 

I’m being subjective remember …

 

~ VF ~

r101958's picture
r101958
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 24 2008
Posts: 257
Re: Outstanding Article by Heinberg****

I think we can look at oil production throughout the time of the oil price spike in 2008 and see that production did not really increase. This says quite a bit in and of itself. I believe market price seeks a point at which increased production drowns further increase. This did not happen with oil in 2008. Instead, the economy crashed and oil crashed along with it. This is how I think it will be with peak oil. Each time oil price will increase to the point where it takes too much out of the economy, the economy then contracts and another oil price bottom is found. However, the tops and the bottoms will increase in price as we go into the future. In times of relative peace and little in the way of really bad events the tops and bottoms will increase fairly slowly and within a fairly narrow band. However, were there to be a black swan or important geopolitical event (war in ME?) then those narrow bands will be broached and quickly.

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