Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar

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Mom-2-3-kids's picture
Mom-2-3-kids
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Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar

I apologize if this has been asked before, but I thought I start a post on this subject to get opinions/ thoughts on this topic...

I am in the process od cashing out the "lovely" IRA and need some alternatives to the dollar.

Any suggestions out there on other currencies to invest, rather than the US dollar?

Is the Yuan even available to purchase.  I thought I read that it isn't, but just want to make sure. I would like to get some.

Australia is the country that owns the least amount of US debt.  Would they be a contender? 

Thoughts on Renminbi/Yuan?  How can I get my hands on it?  This is all my bank has to offer.

EUR (Euro)

 
GBP (British Pound)
CAD (Canadian Dollar)  
CHF (Swiss Franc)  
JPY (Japanese Yen)  
MXN (Mexican Peso)  
AUD (Australian Dollar)  
NZD (New Zealand Dollar)  
DKK (Danish Kroner)  
NOK (Norwegian Kroner)  

SEK (Swedish Krona)

Opinions/suggestions greatly appreciated...

Thanks!

Set's picture
Set
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Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar

I believe that the Renminbi will eventually decouple from the USD.  Before my friends go to China they exchange their dollars at Cathay Bank.  They give them the USD’s and come back the next day for their Yuans.

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JAG
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Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar

Mom2...,

I think there is no easy answer to your question. Personally, if your asking me for a "safe-haven" right now, the USD looks like the best bet in the short-term, from a technical perspective of the currency markets. Eventually, the current rally in the dollar will run its course, and it will be time to move out of the dollar into a commodity-based currency like CAD or AUD.

I'm sure many here will tell you to buy gold and silver bullion and just sit back and relax, but I think the days of buying and holding any asset are over.

Disclosure: I have a significant allocation of my capital sitting in cash (USD) right now. 

(Edit: I know I didn't really answer your question, but I wouldn't touch any other currency than the USD with a ten-foot pole right now)

 

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Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar

All currencies, save for one, are Fiat, backed by nothing and at the mercy of the CBs.

Gold is one currency that isn't Fiat.

You can hedge your bets and go for currencies tied to resource rich countries - or you can go for the gold. IMHO: Smart move on ditching the IRA.

 

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earthwise
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Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar

 

 In case you missed it Dr. Martenson issued yesterday a new Martenson Insider on this very topic : http://www.peakprosperity.com/martensoninsider/which-currencies-reader-question

Also from a previous Martenson Report http://www.peakprosperity.com/martensonreport/no-exit-the-coming-wealth-trap :

Large portions of wealth, jammed up at the doorways, will be lost entirely.  Other wealth will squeak out of the doorway and be late to the party.  Only the early money will have any realistic chance of being preserved.

Here I will argue that the traditional sources of wealth - those immediately recognizable to your great-grandfather as items useful to humans - will be the areas that will gain the most.  Good land, trees, water, food, minerals, and energy are all items that fit into this view.

The answer to your question depends on your situation. Is all your debt paid off?  Do you have any PM's? Solar panels for your roof? If yes, then IMHO you can't do any better than farmland, but that's just me.

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Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar

How about Hong Kong dollars?

That's where I am holding some significant assets.

You may say that: "Oh, the HK$ is linked to the US$, so what's the point?"

Since HK is part of China, there is a point.  If the US$ really crashes, they would change the peg. And a link to the Rmb, or even to gold seems possible.

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Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar

AUD and CAD govenments are rich in natural resources and less debt.  The EU is a mess.  Italy, Greece, UK, Spain are all over their heads in debt.  Euro may not even be around when more stable countries don't want to pay for the less responsible ones.  I would probably pick CAD since thats where i'd go if TSHTF.

I'm big on gold and silver.  Silver currently undervalued, many industrial uses.  Junk silver great for bartering, gold for a store wealth.  If we don't have complete collapse, precious metals will skyrocket, if we do good to have supplies to barter.

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Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar
kencolorado wrote:

I'm big on gold and silver.  Silver currently undervalued, many industrial uses.  Junk silver great for bartering, gold for a store wealth.  If we don't have complete collapse, precious metals will skyrocket, if we do good to have supplies to barter.

Hi kencolorado,

Welcome to the site.  Any ideas as to how you'll deal with the issue of nationalization of PMs?  Also, how would you propose to cross the Canadian border with your PMs if TSHTF?  

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Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar

AO,

thanks, I'm glad to be on board.

Both are ?'s I've been struggling with.  Gold is my big worry about confiscation.  I am looking at having an account in canada. Possibly thru  Kitco, in addition to what I hold.  At least 1/2 of what I hold will be in Maples.    I'm 40% silver. I really see a big upside to silver.  IIt's really undervalued and if the manipulation keeping down ever stops it'll skyrocket.  It's also rarer than gold and is being used up in indutrial uses. f I was going to leave and had time I'd sell my silver for Maples.

 

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Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar

kcol,

I've thought of opening an offshore account (Switzerland and Canada) but the problem is, any kind of offshore financial activity is increasingly attracting IRS and other government agency attention like honey attracts bees, courtesy of Senator Carl Levin and others of his ilk.  Be careful because it draws a big target on your back, especially if you get up in the 7 figure range.  Also, if you hold your gold in Canada, I'd probably put all of it in maple leaves since Canada imposes a goods and services tax (GST) on any gold that is less than 99.5% purity (meaning maple leaves, philharmonics, and buffaloes would be exempt while eagles and krugerrands would be liable).  Canadian provincial sales taxes (PST) or a combined harmonized sales tax (HST) may be levied on the less pure coins as well.  That's one of the reasons I have maple leaves in my portfolio.  The Canuckistanians can be touchy about things like that. 

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Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar

ao:

If things go bad will it be easy to unload Maples here?  If so, I'll trade my eagles in.  If 99.5 is the barometer why not have Buffalos that are recognized here but would be transportable to Canada?  I appreciate your comment on offshore accounts, I didn't think of Canada like I would Switzerland or Bahamas, but your point is well taken.  There are so many scenarios to consider depending on the degree of collapse.  If its complete breakdown, PM's wont be much help until some order is restored, goods will be more important, but if it's  partial silver and gold will stil retain value.  I guess there will be a black market either way.

 

thanks

 

ao's picture
ao
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Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar

kcol,

I don't think you'd have any problems unloading maple leaves here if TSHTF.  However, my sense is that eagles may be treated more favorably here by the authorities given the Gold Bullion Coin Act of 1985 and the Liberty Coin Act of 1985.  Also, you can hold them in IRAs while you can't hold maple leaves or other foreign coins, if I'm not mistaken.  That fact could result in an increase in their demand if and when folks might scramble for precious metals IRAs when paper assets start heading south. 

I think the same situation holds true for maple leaves in Canada.  While buffaloes qualify in terms of pre-requisite purity and should be OK, they're still not Canadian.  The Canadian government can be very arbitrary (just like ours) and turn at the drop of the hat.  Witness the Canadian energy trust debacle for American investors ... I know, I got burned a bit in that one.  Also, the trend is returning to protectionism so there may be some prejudice against non-Canadian coins on that account.

In the case of a full scale collapse, I think order of priority for tangibles will be cigarettes and whiskey first (the addicts will have to satisfy their need), guns and ammo second (guns and ammo can allow the criminals to obtain anything else they want and the law abiding to protect everything they have and, in rural areas, to hunt), food and other essentials third, precious metals fourth, and so on down the list.  That's just my opinion.  

Mom-2-3-kids's picture
Mom-2-3-kids
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Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar
JAG wrote:

Personally, if your asking me for a "safe-haven" right now, the USD looks like the best bet in the short-term, from a technical perspective of the currency markets. Eventually, the current rally in the dollar will run its course, and it will be time to move out of the dollar into a commodity-based currency like CAD or AUD.

Thanks JAG,

I agree, however, since the dollar is on a rally right now....my personal opinion is NOW is the time to buy foreign currency, if that is in your plans.  You get more foreign dollars for your money when the dollar is index is higher. 

If you hold dollars too long,  you will lose the buying power of getting the better exchange rate when the dollar starts to fall again.

For example:  Use  $5,000 US dollars now, while the dollar is "rally-ing" and get $5003 Australian dollars with that. 

If you wait until the dollar starts falling again...you won't get the $5003 AUD back with your $5,000...more likely much less.

Hope I'm not too confusingUndecided

Buy when the dollar is in a rally, because it won't last long..  Just my 2 cents :)

 

 

 

 

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Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar

where do you buy foriegn currencies?

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Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar
kcol wrote:

where do you buy foriegn currencies?

You can do it on Forex, but "if" it all goes (brokerages tank) then good luck. Schwab called me 2 days before I think it was Revco went chapter 11 and I just got our cash out in time.

It happens.

I think if I were cold on gold and wanted to hold other dollars I'd conclude that a better way would might likely be to hold the currency. Most international airports have exchange windows (banks) I'm sure all banks can do it was well, there is of course a fee.

Of course "if" the banks go I don't know what good paper in another currency will do one. We now have about 576 banks on the troubled list and I myself have read that over 2,000 banks should be on that list.

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JAG
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Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar
Mom-2-3-kids wrote:

I agree, however, since the dollar is on a rally right now....my personal opinion is NOW is the time to buy foreign currency, if that is in your plans.  You get more foreign dollars for your money when the dollar is index is higher. 

I think we might differ in our expectations for the dollar rally. I'm looking for sentiment to be very bullish on the dollar before I scale out of it. I know many believe that day will never come, but I'll wait for it. Patience, in this market in particular, will be rewarded. A flight to the safety-de jour will be punished, as always.

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Carl Veritas
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Re: Opinions on a Safe Haven Currency other than US Dollar

 

I would put any significant amount of cash in US Treasury bills, or mutual funds that hold them exclusively (some have checkwriting features).

In a  truly global scare,   commerce and the general population  would probably and increasingly  refuse to accept  paper notes for payment, like in the US civil war.   Until some order is restored we will readily  trust gold, or at least direct obligations of the US Treasury ,  to facilitate commerce. After all we must still go to the grocer and buy food and necessities,   and that includes people in government.

Legal tender laws would be increasingly hard to enforce once  a significant portion of the economy starts functioning without federal reserve notes.

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