Oil production and consumption (with OPEC view)

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silvervarg's picture
silvervarg
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Mar 28 2010
Posts: 57
Oil production and consumption (with OPEC view)

Depending on your point of view (the way you count) you get quite different dates for peak oil.
If you count only conventional crude oil we have passed peak oil in 2006-2008 depending on who you talk to.
However most people count in all sort of unconventional resources that can be used to replace oil, and that puts things in a much more interesting perspective. 
Most in this post is my interpretation of OPEC's numbers, and as I read them in a non-english form I choose not to post a link here. 

OPEC (most of worlds large oil producers) have a fundamental positive view on oil for obvious reasons, but they do watch the facts very closely.
Last friday they announced their latest precitions for 2010 and 2011. As 2010 is only 2 months of statistics left the numbers should end up very close to reallity, so it is not much of a prediction. Much more interesting is what they say about 2011.

 OPEC's view is that production will increase in 2011, so in their point of view we have not reached peak oil.
In 2010 the estimates are that we (the entire world):
Produced     86.0 MBD (million of barrels per day)
Consumed  85.78 MBD
Net change +0.22 MBD (that is we increased stored reserves on land a bit).

Predictions for 2011:
Production 86.36 MBD (+0.36 MBD compared to 2010. so still increasing, so according to OPEC we have not had peak oil yet in 2010)
Consumption 86.95 MDB (+1.17 compared to 2010).
Net change -0.59 MBD

The important thing to note is that stored reserves will according to OPEC decrease in 2011
It may not be that much of a decrease, but I believe this will be the first year ever without a world war or major oil embargo that we had a decrease in stored reserves.
The main question in my mind is: What will the reactions be when we see statistics in 2011 with decreasing stored reserves for several months in a row?
Will this send the oil price up towards to top levels of 2008?
If we do see oil prices spiking suddenly this could be enough to break some very delicate balance in economies that currently try to recover from 2008 and then the game of domino is clearly on the run.

yobob1's picture
yobob1
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 20 2009
Posts: 132
Re: Oil production and consumption (with OPEC view)

The important thing to note is that stored reserves will according to OPEC decrease in 2011
It may not be that much of a decrease, but I believe this will be the first year ever without a world war or major oil embargo that we had a decrease in stored reserves.
The main question in my mind is: What will the reactions be when we see statistics in 2011 with decreasing stored reserves for several months in a row?

Stored reserves go up and down - it is generally acknowledged that stored reserves on a global basis are near historic highs and possibly are even higher than officially reported if one accounts for filled idle tankers at anchor.

This is the US including the SPR

You reach a point where you run out of places to store oil without building additional capacity.  If there is as much oil stored as is generally believed then you are likely to see a run down of some of this capacity.

Its also important to consider the source of this or any other "information".  OPEC could hardly be considered a diinterested third party.  About 35% of the oil shipped out of the ME goes to Asia.  If the overheated Asian economies cool any, the demand situation could rapidly change.

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