Oil calculations

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land2341's picture
land2341
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 20 2009
Posts: 402
Oil calculations

I gathered a bunch of numbers, mostly from the CIA and the DOD on what global oil reserves there are.  Caveat:  reserves do not mean the same thing to everyone and countries lie.  But,  the list included

Ghawar Saudi Arabia 30 billion barrels

W. Qurna Iraq 21

Majnoon, Iraq 13

Rumaila, Iraq 17

Kusestan, Iran 100

Kashgan, Kazakhstan 9

Khureis, Saudi Arabia 27

Tui, Brazil 8

Carabobo VZ 15

Alaska 40

 

I left out "speculative" lists such as tar sands and shale,  and also  got canada reserves at 178.1 billion 

Since the top group is only 268 billion - why would canada's number be so high?  Do they have that much or are the other "reserves" what is already out of the ground?  Government numbers are not reliable as they often do not define terminology or collection methodology.

This amounts to 268 billion barrels of reserve being consumed at a rate of 85,534,000 barrels per day globally (Dept of Energy,  but matches UCLA)

That is 8 years worth.    11, give or take, if canada is telling the truth.  And not calculating an exponential increase in usage that is possible.

Help me out.  What am I missing?  I cannot use these numbers without better backing than the government!

Mike Pilat's picture
Mike Pilat
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 8 2008
Posts: 929
Re: Oil calculations

Just off the top of my head, I have difficulty seeing how Canada can claim reserves greatly exceeding Saudi Arabia unless the tar sands are counted. 

There is a great deal of oil remaining in Russia. There certainly is oil in the North Sea, Mexico, Africa, China, etc. In fact, something like 90% of countries around the globe produce oil. You can't produce unless you have some reserves. So while you've covered many of the big players in your list, there are also a great number that you've missed.

land2341's picture
land2341
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 20 2009
Posts: 402
Re: Oil calculations

That's what I mean - where else can I look to get decent numbers?  I think Canada's are bogus too because the tar sands are too energy negative to use.  Any ideas?  Why is this data not pulled together anywhere?  Or am I looking in the wrong places?

Nate's picture
Nate
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: May 5 2009
Posts: 605
Re: Oil calculations

This is slightly off-topic but related.  I work at a national lab and a top scientist went to work in the Colorado oil shale fields 2 years ago.  He's a very bright, intellectual honest guy.  On his last day, I bumped into him in the parking lot and asked him about the EROEI of oil shale.  He said there was an excellent academic study that did an indept review of this.  The study included roads, pipelines, and... everything.  The number he quoted was 3.3 to 1.  

 

Nate

rhare's picture
rhare
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Mar 30 2009
Posts: 1329
Re: Oil calculations
land2341 wrote:

That's what I mean - where else can I look to get decent numbers?  I think Canada's are bogus too because the tar sands are too energy negative to use.  Any ideas?  Why is this data not pulled together anywhere?  Or am I looking in the wrong places?

That's one of Matt Simmon's prime issues. We don't have good audited honest numbers, instead we have political and corporate propaganda.

 

 

knucklewalker's picture
knucklewalker
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 18 2009
Posts: 13
Re: Oil calculations

those number for Canada certainly include the sands..no doubt at all

since when did EROEI factor into reserve calculations anyway :)

 

 

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