Obama has no clothes

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investorzzo's picture
investorzzo
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Posts: 1182
Obama has no clothes

 The keynesain crew keeps playing their hand; I wonder when or if the Austrians will ever get in the game. I was dissapointed with no campain finance reform mentioned. And 15 billion on alternative energy's. I would think with the cost of war being so high, we could make that at least 100 billion. 

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/casey/2009/0220.html

pir8don's picture
pir8don
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Posts: 456
Re: Obama has no clothes

Reagan set a trend. Actors! getting better all the time.

Don

__________________________________

7 billion people can be wrong, very wrong

Thomas Hedin's picture
Thomas Hedin
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Re: Obama has no clothes

Here is a logical approach to what the Austrians are advocating.

 

ceci1ia's picture
ceci1ia
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Posts: 79
Re: Obama has no clothes

It's not that Obama has no clothes... politicians have no clothes.
This is not a problem that can be solved by a politician. This is a
problem in our economy. It's changing, possibly collapsing, and people
(we) are resisting it.

Non-resistance or acceptance is very challenging, but it's the only way I can see to keep my power.

Giving power to politicians to prop up this non-sustainable situation is a waste all around.

I
realize this is no help in the outside physical world, but inside where
I am, it's what keeps me strong. I act from that strong position by
carrying no debt, having stores of food, keeping my house repaired and
the woodpile dry. 

gregroberts's picture
gregroberts
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Re: Obama has no clothes

"It is self-evidently true that markets drop during recessions just as
production does. But there is something else going on here. The
straightforward link between recession and declining markets is not operating
as it should. If one tracks recent market trends it seems to me that they
correlate not with changes in the "real economy" but with the rise
and election of Obama. In short, the markets are not signalling that
recession is here: They are signalling that Obama's economic policy will
damage the US economy. Never ever forget that markets always look to the future.
And what the markets now see they don't like."

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-dark-clouds-gather-as-ob...

Greg

DrKrbyLuv's picture
DrKrbyLuv
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Posts: 1995
Re: Obama has no clothes

Obama displayed on national TV that he has no idea what's wrong with our economy - instead, he goes into the same old tired mantra - we'll spend our way out!

SkylightMT's picture
SkylightMT
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Posts: 125
Re: Obama has no clothes
gregroberts wrote:

"It is self-evidently true that markets drop during recessions just as production does. But there is something else going on here. The straightforward link between recession and declining markets is not operating as it should. If one tracks recent market trends it seems to me that they correlate not with changes in the "real economy" but with the rise and election of Obama. In short, the markets are not signalling that recession is here: They are signalling that Obama's economic policy will damage the US economy. Never ever forget that markets always look to the future. And what the markets now see they don't like."

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-dark-clouds-gather-as-ob...

Greg

Analysts give the stock market predictive value just like a psychic medium gives her crystal ball. The human mind always tries to project meaning onto rorschach-like data. Does the stock market contain psychic wisdom capable of telling us where our economic policies are succeeding and where they are failing? I seriously doubt it. The market is simply a mishmash of individual traders trying to make a profit, some using shorts, some trying to find a good place for their money, some some addicted to adrenaline rushes.

I think the recent drops in the market simply reflect the waning influence of the euphoria surrounding Obama's election. And the waning euphoria is occuring simply because the crises are intensifying around the world at a faster rate than predicted. It was expected the markets would do well until around April just based on hope and change, at which point reality would set in again. Its just happening sooner than expected, probably because they underestimated the rapidity and depth of that economic reality.

gregroberts's picture
gregroberts
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Posts: 1024
Re: Obama has no clothes

I think there is validity to the idea that if the people who deal in the stock market percieve that the current administration is going to have policies detrimental to the economy it will reflect in what happens in the stock market, nothing really pyschic about that.

Greg

SkylightMT's picture
SkylightMT
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 30 2008
Posts: 125
Re: Obama has no clothes

I agree, in priniciple. Its just that there are so many influences on the stock market right now its difficult to figure out which set of events is causing what to happen. I think analysts are sometimes too glib in making correlations, and are pressured to find correlations quickly so the New York Times or the Economist or the Washington Post can be the smartest.

I think when short-term effects occur, its sometimes possible to make a correlation. For example, when Geithner makes an announcement and within seconds the market strong shifts. But for longer term correlations, I think it gets real fuzzy. There's so many things that could be going on with the markets that it would be hard to say with any certainty what the real influences are. I suspect the global influences are stronger right now than adminstration policies, but who really knows. I also think that with the Plunge Protection Team interfering in the natural flow of the markets, its really hard to know what the markets are doing, or what they are responding to in reality. I don't think the market has an inherent wisdom in it - if it did, why the hell are we in the mess we're in - to me it looks more like confused lemmings trying to make sense of which way to go.

Dogs_In_A_Pile's picture
Dogs_In_A_Pile
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Re: Obama has no clothes
Quote:

Does the stock market contain psychic wisdom capable of telling us where our economic policies are succeeding and where they are failing? I seriously doubt it. The market is simply a mishmash of individual traders trying to make a profit, some using shorts, some trying to find a good place for their money, some some addicted to adrenaline rushes.

  

Most certainly yes.  If you view the market as a collective of subjective personalities, not a single, autonomously functioning, objective 'thing'.  I think you underestimate what the market does tell us.  The vast majority of people in the market, and hence the direction the market moves, are driven by two factors - the fear and greed of the participants.  They are expecting something from the market or they want the market to give them something and they usually get chewed up and spit out.  Very few people are dispassionate and neutral and satisfied with taking what the market gives.  These traders do well in any market environment, because they focus on assessing and taking what is given to them, rather than focusing on what they expect from the market.  You get what you inspect, not what you expect.

The mishmash is a homogenous element - the collective psychology of that mishmash drives the markets - and is a superb barometer of perception.  The perception of market participants manifests in the reality that is the market.  If the participants think an administrations policies are flawed or favor a sector(s) or will punish a sector(s), then that perception will reflect in how they trade (or not) and the markets will move accordingly, framed in that perception/reality.  Whether or not the economic policies are right or wrong is immaterial.  The perception of the majority of market participants is all that matters.

Quote:

 

I think the recent drops in the market simply reflect the waning influence of the euphoria surrounding Obama's election. And the waning euphoria is occuring simply because the crises are intensifying around the world at a faster rate than predicted. It was expected the markets would do well until around April just based on hope and change, at which point reality would set in again. Its just happening sooner than expected, probably because they underestimated the rapidity and depth of that economic reality.

Hmmm.  There's that word expected.  Anyone who studies the market 'expected' nothing.  The Dow is down nearly 4500 points since Obama received the Democratic nomination.  There was no pop after the nomination so I seriously doubt waning euphoria has anything to do with it.  The markets responded as the credit and mortgage crisis was exposed to tthe light of day.  The market is doing what is supposed to be doing - it is reflecting the sentiment and psychology of its participants.  Our elected officials have absolutely no clue as to what is going on, much less how to deal with it.  The actions they are taking are going to do nothing but exacerbate the depth and length of this crisis.  They are acting in a vacuum - oblivious to the energy piece that is looming in the background.

And the markets will respond accordingly as this unfolds further.  Those who expect something from the market will be driven by into inaction by fear and greed will get steamrolled.  Those who take what the market gives will thrive.

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