New Zealand & Crash Course

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efnik's picture
efnik
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New Zealand & Crash Course

Kia ora all, I'm really interested in discussing aspects of the 'Crash Course' and it's implications for New Zealand. 

Thanks to Chris and his amazingteam for making such amazing information firstly available and understandable for guys like myself who are 'economics savy' in fact I dropped out of school... but I get this stuff! I actually understand, comprehend and can actually see the seriousness of the situation.

In no way do I think NZ is isolated from any of this so I'm real keen to discuss issues with any Kiwis all other folk from around the world who can bring this home for us here 'down-under'.

Once again huge ups to Chris ad his team for the amazing job.

God Bless!

Ian Toimata
 

 

gyrogearloose's picture
gyrogearloose
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Re: New Zealand & Crash Course

Hi Ian

From memory, debt per person USA $180,000 NZ $25,000

Most of our foreign exchange earnings come from tourism and agriculture.

A friend works at a freezing works and one of his co workers came back from a sales trip to the UK, order book for chilled lamb was empty ( premium product with the best profits. ) frozen lamb down somewhat.

Dairy products prices falling......

Guess farmers will be getting less this year,

Tourisim, parents in law have B&B in Kaikora, so far this season unchanged, but most had paid some time ago and are anticipating next season to be slow. Air NZ cutting numbers of long haul flights and cutting staff......

With our two biggest earners dropping we are going to have to tighten our belts pretty soon.

Been thinking longer term, Crudely I think Auckland & Wellington will be in serious trouble, Hamilton might make it being in middle of farming and on the waikato ( river transport anyone... ) Christchurch also might make it being flat and slightly downhill from a lot of farmland.

First approximation overview only

Cheers Hamish ( ChCh )

 

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AndyB
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Re: New Zealand & Crash Course

I was trying to start a discussion of this in another forum, but I'm eyeing NZ as an interesting place to run to. Why? Well, because you seem to have still certain advantages. Namely, NZ is far away from anywhere making it less likely to get attacked once things start to crash and secondly with a strong agriculture you'll be able to feed yourself even if cut off from the rest of the world. In terms of worst case scenario - total breakdown of the current system - those are really important advantages. Provided of course NZ society won't break down under strain these events will put on it. How do you think?

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gyrogearloose
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Re: New Zealand & Crash Course

 

Being a Kiwi my perspective may be a bit off ( trying hard to avoid wishful thinking )

In a total breakdown of current systems, large cities will be in trouble everywhere.

Specific to here, Auckland ( one million )is a hilly and sprawling, hard to move food around in with limited fossil fuels ( we have some oil fields, but heavily dependant on imports ) Social issues likely to blossom

Hamilton  ( 130 thousand ) surrounded by good rainfall productive farmland on large river. May be small enough to survive, but at only 1.5 hrs drive from Auckland could feel the effects of Auckland's problems.

Wellington ( 314 thousand wellington area ) Isolated from farming land by hills, sitting smack bang on a large fault, filled with politicians Avoid !!!!

Christchurch ( 316 thousand )  Good port,at edge of Canterbury plains, FLAT for easy movement with low energy, farmland drought prone, but capable of being irrigated by gravity fed  irrigation ditches from large flow (even summer ) rivers, some systems already in place. South Island electricity all hydro .

Dunedin ( 114 thousand ) surrounded by hills, farmland a bit distant. 

Been looking at it for a while and my pick is land well out from Christchurch within gravity fed irrigation capacity areas.

Many other rural areas of the country are prone to slips and floods cutting roads. Areas easily isolated by this without resources readily available to repair. In Canterbury, shingle even roads survive well.

Cheers Hamish

 

 

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AndyB
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Re: New Zealand & Crash Course

Hamish, thanks for your informative reply. Didn't know, for example, that all electricity in the South Island is from hydro. That has huge implications for it being able to sustain much of the modern key infrastructure if oil shortages would occur. However, I was more worried about the fabric of NZ society - for example, how strong the family is there? How far did the erosion of traditional values go? These factors do translate into how strong society will be when facet with a crisis. 

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Llama
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Re: New Zealand & Crash Course
AndyB wrote:

Hamish, thanks for your informative reply. Didn't know, for example, that all electricity in the South Island is from hydro. That has huge implications for it being able to sustain much of the modern key infrastructure if oil shortages would occur. However, I was more worried about the fabric of NZ society - for example, how strong the family is there? How far did the erosion of traditional values go? These factors do translate into how strong society will be when facet with a crisis. 

 

Hi Andy

We are about 70% renewables when it comes to electrical generation, if Auckland goes the way of the Dodo and i am dead certain it will since i live in the Urban sprawl, then it would free up over a third of our electrical consumption making us self sufficent till the infrastructure crapped out, social fabric changes from place to place, a bit of a mixed bag really but since the country has alot of small communitys it has held together quite well over time.

Also i would suggest Hawkesbay as another spot in the North Island, a smaller version of Canterbury, not quite as isolated as it would appear and was settled fairly early on by the British so it has potential from an 1800's point of view.

gyrogearloose's picture
gyrogearloose
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Re: New Zealand & Crash Course

For societal values, lack of corruption is a good start, check out

http://www.transparency.org/news_room/in_focus/2008/cpi2008/cpi_2008_table

 

Cheers Hamish

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Amanda V
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Re: New Zealand & Crash Course

Somebody told me NZ technically could have the ability to feed 55 million people, and our population is 4 million. 

I always wonder how we compare to America - where the crash course is based.  My banker assures me National Bank is extremely "liquid" and there is no way it could go under.

 

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gaspingpug
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Re: New Zealand & Crash Course

NZ Not a Great Place to Run to unless you happen to like:

year round wet windy weather

poorly maintained infra-structure

people with inferiority complexes

rugged women with the decorum of alsatians

melanomas

biting insects

low intellect sports and other forms of Cretanism

men that constantly complain

sheep

more sheep

the smell of sheep droppings

the stench of road killed opposums 

clouds of blow flies

a news media that totally sucks

social control and programming of its moronic island inhabitants

expensive housing that is cold in winter and hot in summer 

crab infested beaches

crab infested pubic toilets 

worst of all SMUGNESS

believe me you're better off where you are! 

Amanda V's picture
Amanda V
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Re: New Zealand & Crash Course

Crikey Gaspingpug, I think that is a bit harsh.

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SamLinder
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Re: New Zealand & Crash Course
Amanda V wrote:

Crikey Gaspingpug, I think that is a bit harsh.

Amanda,

Check out the "Questions to Kiwis" thread for some other reactions to "Gaspingpug".

http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/questions-kiwis/14260

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mstjane
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Re: New Zealand & Peak Oil - Survival Hawke's Bay

Found an interesting Hawkes Bay New Zealand site on peak oil

This site was set up July 2008 saying

Survival Hawke's Bay

This site is based on the premise that rapidly rising energy costs, escalating food prices, and financial decline are already upon us, that these trends are likely to continue, and that we may have little time left to prepare with friends and family for the major lifestyle adjustments we will probably need to make.

http://survival.50webs.org/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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RayTomes
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Re: New Zealand & Crash Course
gaspingpug wrote:

NZ Not a Great Place to Run to unless you happen to like:

year round wet windy weather

poorly maintained infra-structure

people with inferiority complexes

rugged women with the decorum of alsatians

melanomas

biting insects

low intellect sports and other forms of Cretanism

men that constantly complain

sheep

more sheep

the smell of sheep droppings

the stench of road killed opposums 

clouds of blow flies

a news media that totally sucks

social control and programming of its moronic island inhabitants

expensive housing that is cold in winter and hot in summer 

crab infested beaches

crab infested pubic toilets 

worst of all SMUGNESS

believe me you're better off where you are! 

Lucky we have a good sense of humour!

pir8don's picture
pir8don
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Posts: 456
Re: New Zealand & Crash Course

Or an earnest desire not to be rushed?

Don

_____________________________________

Too big to fail, too big to fix, too big to care

NZSailor's picture
NZSailor
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Posts: 60
Re: New Zealand & Crash Course

David Holmgren is one of the co-founders of the permaculture movment and has a website called Future Scenarios where he explores the implications of peak oil and climate change.  It is a good site and worth a read. 

Here's the link:   http://www.futurescenarios.org/

But most interestingly, he seems more optimistic about New Zealand than anywhere else in the world, including his home country of Australia (and its doesn't come naturally for an aussie to be complimentary about New Zealand )... here's a snippet from the website:

 

"Australia and New Zealand provide examples of two very similar affluent countries in the South Pacific that may already be on very different trajectories and that reflect the dynamics of these scenarios. As the previous Prime Minister John Howard, proclaimed, Australia is one of the new energy superpowers. This claim is supported by the fact that Australia is the largest global exporter of coal, one of the largest exporters of gas with the seventh largest reserves, and has the largest reserves of uranium as well as many other minerals.

Australia exhibits the essential conditions for the emergence of the Brown Tech scenario.On the other hand climate change modelling suggests Australia is perhaps the most vulnerable of OECD countries, a vulnerability highlighted by the recent and continuing drought. These are the essential conditions for the emergence of Brown Tech. The “debate” about nuclear power initiated by the Australian government and the rush to build desalination plants and super-pipelines to address the water crisis are emblematic of this trend. The change of federal government to the Labor Party is likely to further concentrate power at the federal level and could lead to a more rapid abandonment of free market capitalism, further entrenching the Brown Tech scenario.

New Zealand looks like a strong candidate for Green Tech. New Zealand on the other hand has very little in the way of minable energy and resources, but, relative to its population, has extremely rich biophysical resources to support agriculture, forestry and renewable energies. The local impacts of climate change are predicted to be much less severe, allowing New Zealand to take advantage of these distributed rural resources. This looks like a strong candidate for Green Tech."

There are some real challenges ahead for the whole world but at least New Zealand is a small, geographically remote, agricultural country with a good climate (particularly where we are in the North) lots of sunshine and plenty of water.

Time will tell....

Chip

SagerXX's picture
SagerXX
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Posts: 2219
Re: New Zealand & Crash Course
gaspingpug wrote:

NZ Not a Great Place to Run to unless you happen to like:

year round wet windy weather

poorly maintained infra-structure

people with inferiority complexes

rugged women with the decorum of alsatians

melanomas

biting insects

low intellect sports and other forms of Cretanism

men that constantly complain

sheep

more sheep

the smell of sheep droppings

the stench of road killed opposums 

clouds of blow flies

a news media that totally sucks

social control and programming of its moronic island inhabitants

expensive housing that is cold in winter and hot in summer 

crab infested beaches

crab infested pubic toilets 

worst of all SMUGNESS

believe me you're better off where you are! 

This is an excellent piece of disinformation designed to keep people from trying to move to NZ.    Well done, g-pug!  

Of course, I don't believe it for a minute...'cept maybe the part about weather and the sheep.  But with my hardy Scots/Irish genes, wet and windy would make me feel right at home.  And wool clothing is durable and warm...even when wet.

Viva -- Sager

pir8don's picture
pir8don
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Posts: 456
Re: New Zealand & Crash Course

Kiwi's are very polite people until you have established a real relationship with them/ us. We would not even think of mentioning ships and rodents in polite society but it could well occupy a place in the private thoughts of some of us.

Don

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