New journal article about energy realities

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ezlxq1949
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New journal article about energy realities

Here's a brand new article soon to appear in Elsevier's Ecological Modelling journal:

"Adjusting the economy to the new energy realities of the second half of the age of oil," by David J. Murphy and Charles A.S. Hall.

Their conclusion: "... that the economic growth of the past 40 years is unlikely to continue unless there is some remarkable change in how we manage our economy."

Murphy is in the Department of Geography, Northern Illinois University; Hall is in the Graduate Program on Environmental Science, College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse.

Abstract: "Our research indicates that, due to the depletion of conventional, and hence cheap, crude oil supplies (i.e. peak oil), increasing the supply of oil in the future would require exploiting lower quality resources (i.e. expensive), and thus will most likely occur only at high prices. This situation creates a system of feedbacks where economic growth, which requires more oil, would require high oil prices that will undermine that economic growth. We conclude that the economic growth of the past 40 years is unlikely to continue unless there is some remarkable change in how we manage our economy."

This article supports the theory that cheap crude oil is fundamentally important to industrial civilisation. The authors cite a report that the EROEI "for global oil extraction declined from about 36:1 in the 1990s to 18:1 in 2006."

Another snippet: "All of this data indicates that an expensive oil future is necessary if we are to expand our total use of oil. In other words, growing the economy will require oil prices that will discourage that very growth. Indeed, it may be difficult to produce the remaining oil resources at prices the economy can afford, and, as a consequence, the economic growth witnessed by the U.S. and globe over the past 40 years may be a thing of the past."

Citation: Murphy, D.J., Hall, C.A.S., Adjusting the economy to the new energy realities of the second half of the age of oil. Ecol. Model. (2011), doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.06.022

Contents lists available at: www.sciencedirect/science/journal/03043800
Journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolmodel
 

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