Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball anyone?

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earthwise's picture
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Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball anyone?

 

I'm now finally able to plop down some fiat currency to buy gold but the price is now at an all-time high. Anyone think a pullback is in the works. Marc Faber thinks so but I haven't seen his analysis why. Almost all analysis I've seen is long term bullish. But what about short term. I'd like to buy a dip, but who knows....  Any opinions would be welcome.

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...

I've decided to not wait for dips in price, and just purchase gold whenever I have the spare cash to do so.  I'm sure there's a good possibility of the price dropping a little lower in the near future, but IMO there's some risk in waiting for the price to drop significantly.  If one was doing it from the standpoint of a trader it may be different, but I assume your probably buying to hold long-term?  So IMO I wouldn't wait too long.  For one, there's no guarantee it'll drop much in price anytime soon.  And second, if we see another massive economic shakeup the possibility exists that physical gold bullion may become near impossible to get.  After all it was just around this time last year where the price of gold had gone down, and yet very few places had any available for sale....

- Nickbert

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...

Disclosure:

Today i bought 20 1oz Silver coins: Liberty's and three 10 oz silver bars 2 Englehard and one Rarities Mint. The Engles were pricier but are more respected. I dont care for current price as silver were easily break its old $54 record.

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...

The asians are bidding it up. The fed is trying to bid it down.  I don't know who will win, but the Fed is up against some deep pockets, and investors trying to take delivery of Comex gold aren't getting delivery. because apparently they are shorting gold that's not in the vaults.

Make sure you are buying physical gold and taking possession of it.

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...

From an investment standpoint (not a survival standpoint) I don't think gold will be there for you when it counts. I remember last year when gold declined with the stock market, many here were perplexed by its drop. Gold will disappoint again in the next panic selloff of everything that can be sold. I'll be looking to lock-in a good price on paper gold and silver at that point, and convert it to PMs post-crash when they become available again (and the dealer premiums are more reasonable). 

I was tempted to buy more PMs just recently because I thought the markets were changing, but it was just more of the inflation-trade hysteria so I didn't. If I had more than just the bare minimum emergency PM allocation (10%), then I would be selling gold right now.

The safe investment is not the one that you think is safe, but rather the one you that you think is worthless.

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...

"The safe investment is not the one that you think is safe, but rather the one you that you think is worthless."  A statement to ponder.

I guess that has been historically true ("buy straw hats in winter") but still..you wonder if the paradigm changes. Oh, no, that almost sounds like "this time it's different" but...one of these times, it's going to be different, right?

Which one...

 

SG

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...

Earthwise

No crystal ball.  I dont like the idea of trying to time things.  I think paper gold is being bought in large quantities, but very few people in my circles have bought physical gold.  My opinion is that you should purchase gold now and hold onto it.  If it loses value in the short term, don't worry about it.  

JAG

I love how you stick to your guns.  You're the lone wolf on this website and its nice to hear your contrarian view point.

 

Brian

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...
bluestone wrote:

Earthwise

No crystal ball.  I dont like the idea of trying to time things.  I think paper gold is being bought in large quantities, but very few people in my circles have bought physical gold.  My opinion is that you should purchase gold now and hold onto it.  If it loses value in the short term, don't worry about it.  

Yep.  I am buying physical silver (already have my allocation of gold) with whatever caishe I'm not using for other hardcore preps.  FWIW.  YMMV.

bluestone wrote:

JAG

I love how you stick to your guns.  You're the lone wolf on this website and its nice to hear your contrarian view point.

 

Second that.  I love people who have the courage of their convictions, even if I should happen to disagree.  Character.  I happen to 1/2 agree and 1/2 disagree (or more accurately, no know enough to knowledgeably agree) w/JAG.  But he's always stimulating worthwhile discussion, which is invaluable...

Viva -- Sager

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...

There will always be dips.  Buy on them.  Gold's getting a little overheated so a pullback is likely ... but I'm staying in my physical gold for the long term.

Greg Wheldon has provided some excellent short term advice when I used his service in the past.  You can check out his Metal Monitor.  The subscription price is very steep now but for the short term, use the Free Trial.  It costs you nothing.

http://www.weldononline.com/MetalMonitor.aspx

For long term, I like Jim Sinclair ... plus, he's a old school character ... my kinda guy.

http://jsmineset.com/

Follow the gold prices here:

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

Look at some of the historical charts to get some perspective regarding gold price movements before buying.

When you see the price drop ... far ... straight down ... like a fishing line ... at least a few percent ... consider buying.  If it drops below $1050, I might pick some up.  If it drops below $1000, I'd definitely pick some up.  If it drops further after you've bought it, don't worry ... it'll be back.

Here's an article with some basic observations about recent market fluctuations in gold.

http://www.numismaster.com/ta/numis/Article.jsp?ad=article&ArticleId=8390

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...

Buying another 10 silver libertys tomorrow muhuhuhuhhahhaa

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...

Hey thanks guys.....your kind words made my night!

All the best

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...

No crystal ball here. I am too busy with work to stay on top of the markets and make short term moves, so I keep it simple. When the yellow metal is in my price range I buy; when it is above it, I just sit tight and get on with life.

 

Tarjan

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dumb question....
JAG wrote:

 and convert it to PMs post-crash when they become available again

Hate to admit my ignorance for such a seemingly common term, but what are PMs?

 

 

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No dumb questions ...

Hate to admit my ignorance for such a seemingly common term, but what are PMs?

Precious Metals

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No dumb questions indeed.

It took me a few months to figure out what LOL, FWIW, ROFLMAO, etc meant (its funny...I knew instantly what "WTF" meant...me and my potty mouth I guess)

Yoshhash...sorry...I should have wrote bullion instead of PMs

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...

Dang.  And this whole time I thought it stood for "Pinup Models".  Now what the heck do I do with all these magazines? Laughing

- Nickbert

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...

 

 Peak Gold .. already  !?

 

 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/mining/6546579/Barrick-shuts-hedge-book-as-world-gold-supply-runs-out.html

 

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...

As far as paper gold, my impression is its got some legs... too many goldbugs calling for a correction, and I dont do the techical stuff but the shorting doesn't seem to have any staying power, thats my current read...  runs will always leave people in the dust, and there's a lot still sitting on the sidelines, while somebody is buying...  Its not that big a market, when you consider all the dollars sloshing around...

 

FWIW, I would hang out on this site more often, but it is my worst performing site that I visit.  The amount of errors, and the general slow speed of loading the pages makes it not very inviting for me, so much I am not willing to go on past my subscription period.  I'm not saying my PC is in tip top shape and tweaked to the max, but simply compared to everything else I do with the internet this is the worst site, performance- wise.  Its just not worth the bother.

 

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...

Thanks for the input everybody!

I also found these tidbits:

Is Gold in a Bubble? Short answer... Not even close!   http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

 

From Jon Nadler at Kitco

http://www.kitco.com/scripts/count/count_db.pl?id=2627033

 P.S. 

 Hey JAG,  what does ROFLMAO by the way? UndecidedI couldn't figure it out.

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...

Just my casual observation and nothing scientific here....the price of gold tends to go down on the day preceeding the 15th of the month in the Asian and European markets.  So this month it would be Friday the 13th.  Then price tends to shoot up again at about 6:00 a.m. EST. 

I'm watching the price very closely today and tomorrow.  Being in Europe I don't have to get up early.

It's not a fact, folks, and I could be wrong but this is the trend that I've been seeing.

 

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...
earthwise wrote:

what does ROFLMAO by the way?

Rolling on the floor, laughing my a$$ off.

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...

Rolling on the floor, laughing my a$$ off.

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...

Ladies and Gentlemen, here's John Nadler!

"An accountant would freak out if he recorded currency as a liability and couldn't find an equivalent value of assets. He would say that the central bank is a Ponzi scheme. Which of course it is. And it's just not worth the hassle of trying to explain to accountants that some Ponzi schemes are sustainable, really."

Its just not worth the hassle of trying to guess why the Kitco analyst is such a cheerleader of shenanigans of the central banks... The best one I have read thinks Kitco has been shorting too much gold as well...

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...

That's a great question...and I'm really not sure where Gold is headed.  If we have short term deflation, I could see the price going down for awhile.  The thing that scares me the most about Gold right now is that everyone is getting into it.  Usually that is a warning sign to me but who knows.  Also, Goldman Sachs is predicting $1,200 gold by the end of the year.  That kind of concerns me as well.  Groupthink.

 

http://in.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idINN1030931720091110

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...

 

 A bit of humor..

 

"But the U.S. government has a technology, called a Tungsten refinery, that allows it to produce as many good delivery bars as it wishes at essentially no cost."

 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14996.html

tungsten

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...

C.D., my take is most people are not into gold, not yet anyway.  I don't own a TV so I don't know if it's talked a lot on there.  But nobody in my circles is talking about buying it; they still believe in traditional stocks and bonds etc.; gold is this weird exotic thing they wouldn't consider; different than when I remember everyone bragging about how muchmore their house had appreciated a few years ago.  I won't gamble which way gold will go in the near term since I can't know with significant probability what markets will do.  I look more for gold to be one tool for long term preservation of wealth under a range of adverse scenarios, and it's value will not go to zero.

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What do PMs do at EoY (calendar)?

Is there a historical precedent for gold/silver to go up/down at the end of the calendar year?  I know the markets these days are anything but typical, but I was curious as to whether there is any history of PMs moving generally in one direction or the other as the year ends.  Papi's ready to make a move but wouldn't want to rush if there was any reasonable expectation of a significant up or down...

Viva -- Sager

P.S.  Yes, I just referred to myself as 'Papi' in the third person.  I guess talk of precious metals gets me excited.  My apologies to those who might take syntactical offense.  Cool

ao's picture
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Re: What do PMs do at EoY (calendar)?
SagerXX wrote:

Is there a historical precedent for gold/silver to go up/down at the end of the calendar year?  

Yes.  Up, on the average.  Check out the last 10 years.

http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

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Re: What do PMs do at EoY (calendar)?
ao wrote:
SagerXX wrote:

Is there a historical precedent for gold/silver to go up/down at the end of the calendar year?  

Yes.  Up, on the average.  Check out the last 10 years.

http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

Sure enough.  Only '04 & '06 have slides.  Everything else even or up.  Thanks ao!

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...

 

Many opinions on bullish gold, this one exhibits what appears to be sound reasoning. I found it very helpful.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/nov122009.html

 

As a sidenote, Jim Rogers and others think silver is undervalued, whereas gold is at record highs. Would this make it prudent to increase the ratio of silver-to-gold holdings? My goals are collapse survival as well as wealth preservation ( I'm not an investor type-this would be the first).

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Re: Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball ...

I dont think there will be a repeat of 2008's rally into the dollar and forced liquidations of large investors, there's an old saying, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.  My 2 (pre-1982) cents.  The longer you wait, the less gold and silver your paper will buy.   I'm in, alright, but I am trying to increase my exposure.

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