Monday 17th May 2010

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britinbe's picture
britinbe
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Monday 17th May 2010
With so much happening over the last few weeks and after the turbulence of last week, it will be interesting to see how the markets react when they open in the morning. 
There has been plenty of comment in the weekends papers from various sources, most of which have been negative and of course Asia will lead the way whilst most of us in Europe/US sleep; but the question that hits me is whether or not we will witness either a pivotal moment in history where the world says enough of this debt or a situation whereby things get kicked down the road. 
Anyway, I thought I'd create this discussion topic to catch the coming day's events.  Either way, I think it will be interesting!

Brit
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britinbe
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Re: Monday 17th May 2010

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64D6NL20100516

From Reuters

Euro zone troubles many roil stocks

An indication of the direction??

Erik T.'s picture
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Re: Monday 17th May 2010

Well I was expecting more volatility but it was a pretty docile open. Futures have been trading for 20 minutes now, and so far haven't moved more than 2 S&P points from Friday's close. I was expecting a brisk move one way or the other within the first 5 minutes.

But hey, the day is young. I'm sure it'll get interesting before it's over.

Erik

 

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Re: Monday 17th May 2010

Thanks Erik, its great to have on the spot, global feedback. The internet is amazing.

SagerXX's picture
SagerXX
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Re: Monday 17th May 2010

Well, FWIW, the Nikkei is down 1.3% in the first 20 mins of trading...

I'll be watching the Euro most of all.  Methinks it's the Euro's big week...for better or worse.

 

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Re: Monday 17th May 2010

I'm hoping for a docile opening and a blah-blah day so I can pounce on some more underpriced VIX calls.  muu-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha!  Thanks for the Hong-Kong desk update, Erik!

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SagerXX
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General question

The Nikkei's status is currently listed as "market closed" at  11:20 a.m. Japan time (10:20 p.m. my time).  Do they take a lunch break?

 

idoctor's picture
idoctor
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Re: Monday 17th May 2010

Yes they do take a lunch break.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15921552/site/14081545/

DJ Asia-Pacific Titans
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Hu oh pre markets down over 100......not good....at least I have some QID & VXX. Oil looks to be weak.
Farmer Brown's picture
Farmer Brown
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Re: Monday 17th May 2010

The USDX is up 70 cents already!  This is nuts.  Currencies just aren't "supposed" to do that.  I smell Euro blood on the streets very very soon.

Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
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Re: Monday 17th May 2010

FB,

Latest Euro chart looks unreal, last tick at 1.2265

Im surprised there hasnt been a relief rally yet.

idoctor's picture
idoctor
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Re: Monday 17th May 2010

WOW is that right the Euro is at 122?? Europe's one should be interesting....this may pickup some speed......

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idoctor
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Re: Monday 17th May 2010

WOW is that right the Euro is at 122?? Europe's open should be interesting....this may pickup some speed......

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Re: Monday 17th May 2010 -- Euro/Pound Watch

The Euro has fallen hard since the market opened four hours ago, but check out the action in the Pound, which is even more dramatic:

British Pound/US Dollar (FOREX:GBPUSD)

SagerXX's picture
SagerXX
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Re: Monday 17th May 2010
idoctor wrote:

Yes they do take a lunch break.

How very...civilized!  Thanks idoc!

And ouch: Nikkei -1.98%, Shanghai -1.51%, HS -2.42.  Euro plunging ~ 1.22.  Gold up US$7.  I finally got some peeps in my community to come with me for "just one more" PM buy (though it'll be their first).  Here's hoping this coming Saturday is soon enough (what with the runs on PMs in Europe, etc.)...

I was at a very, very lovely wedding this weekend.  Livin' large:  eating delicious fancy food, sipping Patron all night (the groom has a thing for good tequila), dancing my pale white heiny off.  I really threw myself into it.  And all the while the vague Spectre of Meltdown was at the edge of the big honking tent that sheltered our revelry, sipping its own glass of Patron and smiling a quiet patient smile.

Whatever else happens:  good memories from this weekend.  Maybe the idea that there aren't that many more weekends just like this one made the pleasures therein all the more keenly felt.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled thread...

Viva -- Sager

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Re: Monday 17th May 2010

We now return you to your regularly scheduled thread...

Thanks Sager.....I am watching Opra & American Idol reruns to make sure I never missed out on anything really important LOL.

Think those Europeans might put some after burners on buying Gold tomorrow??

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Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
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Re: Monday 17th May 2010

Lemonsyellow,

 

wow thats some pretty steep GBP action. Anyone have an explanation as to why markets are moving this quickly?

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Re: Monday 17th May 2010
bearmarkettrader wrote:

Anyone have an explanation as to why markets are moving this quickly?

Because they're trying to keep me up all night?  ACK.  Sleeptime for Sager.  

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Re: Monday 17th May 2010

Wow, what a move! (Hey, I've been saying that a lot lately)

Just 5 months ago everybody (well, 98 percent of everybody) thought it was the US dollar's death that was pending.....0 to 87 in 5 seconds flat, Wow!

I love the fact that my dollars are just sitting there gaining purchasing power by the minute, and no broker fees or dealer premiums need to be paid. Tax me on this windfall Uncle Sam.....oppps...never mind.

Of course when I wake up tomorrow, the EURUSD will probably be 160. Is there a Porsche dealer open 24 hours?Wink

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Re: Monday 17th May 2010

Update from the Hong Kong desk...

I went back to sleep after checking the open - I figure I'll be up till 4am (the NYC close) so wanted to catch a few Zzz's to rejuvenate. Just got up again (1:30pm local). The Hang Seng is closed for lunch, as per normal. Yes Sager, quite civilized indeed.

I do see some very interesting action in the Hang Seng this morning:

Look at that DRAMATIC downspike (the green line that drops below all others). That happened coincident with the S&Pselling off only 10 points or so (the HSI move down was disproportionately large). Then when the S&P's stabilized around 1123, the HSI spiked back up to and held its previous trading range.

This fits very much with the temperament of asian markets in general. The way I interpret it, the Asians are watching with baited breath and ready to react in panic. When the S&Ps started to sell off moderately, Hong Kong traders panicked and went into sell mode, hence the disproportionate downspike. Then when S&Ps stabilized it became "false alarm" and they went back to the "wait and watch" trading range.

This is VERY consistent with asian culture and market personality. Watch closely, wait, and react to what you see. For this reason the asians are along for the ride in S&P trading, and the moves in the market are coming from NY traders up late on a sunday night. You would expect the asians to see what's going on with EURUSD and sell ahead of the pack, but that's not the asian way. They will watch with baited breath and react only when someone else takes action. I don't get it either.

I would expect the S&P futures to continue to hover around 120 - 124 for a couple more hours, as the asians sit and watch and light volume from NY pushes the market lower. Then Europe opens, and I expect all hell to break loose. I'm already selling even more S&Ps and HSI futures on the stability, which I expect will be temporary. Unfortunately, VIX futures don't trade overnight.

That's a wrap from the Hong Kong desk. Back to you, JAG...

Erik

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Re: Monday 17th May 2010

thanks for the updates guys.  I've told everybody I've talked to in the past week to get out of the market and into cash. I hope some listened.  I just think the up side is limited to 10 percent or less, but the downside could be a 66 percent move or even an overshot of that.  too risky to be in the market now.

I'm just not savvy enough to bet on the correction.  I'll just sit on my small stash of silver.

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Re: Monday 17th May 2010
SagarXX wrote:

sipping Patron all night (the groom has a thing for good tequila),

Glad you has a great time, but sorry dude, that stuff is nasty!  Want some good tequila for about the same price but much much better?  Try El Tesoro Reposado (~$45) I use this for fantastic margaritas: 1 oz cointreau, 1.75 oz fresh squeezed lime juice (NOT ROSIES), 1.5 oz El Tesoro Reposado, shake w/ice, serve, awesome!

However, if you really really want to try some incredible stuff, try the El Tesoro Paradiso (~$120).  This is much more like a fine scotch or cognac.  No mixing, this you drink straight up in a snifter.  Everyone I've ever served it to has been shocked that Tequila could taste so smooth..Yes - I have a some in my preparation gear.  If TSHTF I'll be a happy camper! Smile  Now I just have to figure out if I can grow a lemon or lime trees indoors.....

P.S. Notice my dog (my icon) is wearing my Margarita Party glasses that I take to Burning Man! :-)

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Re: Monday 17th May 2010
rhare wrote:
SagarXX wrote:

sipping Patron all night (the groom has a thing for good tequila),

Glad you has a great time, but sorry dude, that stuff is nasty!  Want some good tequila for about the same price but much much better?  Try El Tesoro Reposado (~$45) I use this for fantastic margaritas: 1 oz cointreau, 1.75 oz fresh squeezed lime juice (NOT ROSIES), 1.5 oz El Tesoro Reposado, shake w/ice, serve, awesome!

However, if you really really want to try some incredible stuff, try the El Tesoro Paradiso (~$120).  This is much more like a fine scotch or cognac.  No mixing, this you drink straight up in a snifter.  Everyone I've ever served it to has been shocked that Tequila could taste so smooth..Yes - I have a some in my preparation gear.  If TSHTF I'll be a happy camper! Smile  Now I just have to figure out if I can grow a lemon or lime trees indoors.....

P.S. Notice my dog (my icon) is wearing my Margarita Party glasses that I take to Burning Man! :-)

 

Rhare,

 

I have both a lemon and lime tree in my back yard. You bring the tequila and we"re set. Cool

Ken

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Re: Monday 17th May 2010
Ken C wrote:

I have both a lemon and lime tree in my back yard. You bring the tequila and we"re set.

You must be in a location that doesn't get those nasty freezing temperatures which means your probably too far to make it tonight, err morning!  I guess that would mean we would need to make a tequila sunrise. Laughing  Enough of this sillyness, I think it's time for bed, have to wake up and see what happens in the markets in the morning. I might start early on the Margaritas!

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Re: Monday 17th May 2010

This may be kind of silly, but I'll throw it out there and see what you guys think of it.  If nothing else it may have some amusement value...

Last night I had a vivid and very interesting, if frustrating, dream.  For some purpose that was never made clear in the dream I was in an unfamiliar city being led around by a guide (an attractive guide I might add).  She took me into a fancy casino and told me I needed to play at the tables, that it is expected of me and is the normal thing to do around here.  I say "umm... ok", check my wallet and see I have about $1500.  I figure I'll play it safe and only gamble a small portion of it and take out $400 for some chips, and stop playing if I lose $200 or so.  My guide doesn't play but just stands back and gets me a drink, and the blackjack dealer (who for some reason looks like Marc Faber Surprised) has a nice friendly smile for me.  I take a sip of my drink as the dealer begins dealing the cards, and everything inexplicably fades from my view.  Everything then comes back into view seemingly after only an instant... same casino, same table, same dealer looking at me smiling the exact same smile as if nothing happened.  The problem is that I find all my chips are gone and my guide is nowhere to be found.  I'm further shocked when I check my wallet and find all the 100 dollar bills I had are gone, leaving only about a few hundred in 50's, 20's, and 5's.  Pissed off, I get up and leave the table, trying to find my guide to get an explanation about my money and the drink I suspected to be drugged.  I can't find her anywhere, so feeling upset I think of what my remaining options are as I double-check how much money is in my wallet.  An even more unpleasant surprise... I find that all the 5's, 20's, and 50's in there are actually not dollars at all, but on closer inspection are actually worthless bills made up of old failed currencies along with a few really poorly counterfeited examples of existing currencies.  And the final insult, there's an empty spot in the wallet where my primary credit card used to be.  That's about where the dream ended.

I just thought that this dream related so well to the current market situation.... a rigged casino dripping with promises of riches, an attractive guide to lure you into playing (even though you're personally feeling unsure), and before you can blink you find that you've been screwed over not just once but several times over by multiple parties.  I think more than anything else it's my brain's way of telling me to drop any notions of playing in the markets (which I admit I have been recently tempted to do); either that or I've been following the news and blogs WAY too much lol.  But considering all the anxiousness I've been feeling since Friday about the coming week, a small part of my mind can't help but wonder if the dream is my mind's way of telling me that tomorrow the 'casino' ends up cleaning a whole mess of people out of their money.  In a twisted sort of way I can't wait to see the news when I wake up in the morning Tongue out.

- Nick

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Re: Monday 17th May 2010
nickbert wrote:

This may be kind of silly, but I'll throw it out there and see what you guys think of it.  If nothing else it may have some amusement value...

Last night I had a vivid and very interesting, if frustrating, dream.  For some purpose that was never made clear in the dream I was in an unfamiliar city being led around by a guide (an attractive guide I might add).  She took me into a fancy casino and told me I needed to play at the tables, that it is expected of me and is the normal thing to do around here.  I say "umm... ok", check my wallet and see I have about $1500.  I figure I'll play it safe and only gamble a small portion of it and take out $400 for some chips, and stop playing if I lose $200 or so.  My guide doesn't play but just stands back and gets me a drink, and the blackjack dealer (who for some reason looks like Marc Faber Surprised) has a nice friendly smile for me.  I take a sip of my drink as the dealer begins dealing the cards, and everything inexplicably fades from my view.  Everything then comes back into view seemingly after only an instant... same casino, same table, same dealer looking at me smiling the exact same smile as if nothing happened.  The problem is that I find all my chips are gone and my guide is nowhere to be found.  I'm further shocked when I check my wallet and find all the 100 dollar bills I had are gone, leaving only about a few hundred in 50's, 20's, and 5's.  Pissed off, I get up and leave the table, trying to find my guide to get an explanation about my money and the drink I suspected to be drugged.  I can't find her anywhere, so feeling upset I think of what my remaining options are as I double-check how much money is in my wallet.  An even more unpleasant surprise... I find that all the 5's, 20's, and 50's in there are actually not dollars at all, but on closer inspection are actually worthless bills made up of old failed currencies along with a few really poorly counterfeited examples of existing currencies.  And the final insult, there's an empty spot in the wallet where my primary credit card used to be.  That's about where the dream ended.

I just thought that this dream related so well to the current market situation.... a rigged casino dripping with promises of riches, an attractive guide to lure you into playing (even though you're personally feeling unsure), and before you can blink you find that you've been screwed over not just once but several times over by multiple parties.  I think more than anything else it's my brain's way of telling me to drop any notions of playing in the markets (which I admit I have been recently tempted to do); either that or I've been following the news and blogs WAY too much lol.  But considering all the anxiousness I've been feeling since Friday about the coming week, a small part of my mind can't help but wonder if the dream is my mind's way of telling me that tomorrow the 'casino' ends up cleaning a whole mess of people out of their money.  In a twisted sort of way I can't wait to see the news when I wake up in the morning Tongue out.

- Nick

So...you got taken by a HOT CHiC.  Nothing new there.Wink

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nickbert
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Re: Monday 17th May 2010
LogansRun wrote:

So...you got taken by a HOT CHiC.  Nothing new there.Wink

Yes, we guys can be really simple creatures when it comes to a pretty face, huh? Laughing

- Nick

idoctor's picture
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Re: Monday 17th May 2010

WOW things have settled down....looks like we will have a rescue Monday.

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Subprime JD
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Re: Monday 17th May 2010

Futures ramp job by 2am eastern, as usual

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rocketgirl1
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Re: Monday 17th May 2010

You should have listened to little santa Laughing

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