Mexican Oil

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ron45's picture
ron45
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Mar 12 2010
Posts: 40
Mexican Oil

Listening to an interview today I heard Charles Bowden, a journalist, say something to the effect that Mexican oil would tank in nine years. Are any other sources saying anything like this?

Ron

SagerXX's picture
SagerXX
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 11 2009
Posts: 2252
Re: Mexican Oil

Mr. Bowden is an optimist.  Check this re Mexico's largest oilfield, Cantarell:

Quote:

Cantarell is second only to Saudia Arabia's Ghawar oilfield and has been pumping millions of barrels of light crude a day since 1976. According to Carlos Morales, production manager for Mexico's state owned oil company, Pemex, Cantarell's projected output will be 6 percent lower this year at 1.9 million barrels per day and down to 1.43 million barrels by 2008, the level of production in 2000. 
A leaked internal memo from inside Pemex said water and gas were seeping into the massive offshore oil field. Cantarell is showing the signs of peaking. 

Canterell's Output Levels 
Year Output 
1994 1.0 mb/d 
2000 1.5 mb/d 
2004 2.13 mb/d (Peak) 
2005 2.0 mb/d 
2006 1.9 mb/d (projected) 
2008 1.43 mb/d (projected) 

To make up the decline of Cantarell, Pemex is spending billions to develop new fields such as Chicontepec. This will prove difficult for a company that lost $3.75 billion in 2005, during a time of record high crude prices. 

The crude that is first produced from any field is light and sweet, it flows well, and is easy to refine. Not so the later output, and Pemex is faced with spending billions to reconfigure its refineries so they can handle heavier crude. 

Pemex's Galindo, like many outside experts, thinks the era of easy, cheaply produced oil in Mexico appears to be over. The remaining crude left in Cantarell or in existing fields will most certainly be heavier and costlier. 

The Cantarell field accounts for 60 percent of Mexico's total production. To make up for the anticipated decline of 500,000 bpd will be difficult to achieve and definitely more expensive if even possible. Mexico is the second-largest supplier of oil to the U.S. market. The decline will intensify America's dependence on Middle East oil.

This is from http://peakoil.tribe.net/thread/b36b26f8-bd63-4548-91d8-99d18a18f3d2.  But if you goog "Cantarell peak" you will get many such other articles, like:

http://peakopps.blogspot.com/2009/09/cantarell-update-september-2009-pea...

Seems like Mexico is already well into PO.

Viva -- Sager

Mike Pilat's picture
Mike Pilat
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 8 2008
Posts: 929
Re: Mexican Oil

Yes, agreed. I don't have figures atm but Mexico has already tanked as far as oil is concerned. And for an oil exporter (that also consumes some of its oil) exports will always tank much faster than overall production does. As a result, oil revenues are way off and this likely doesn't help some of the instabilities in Mexico. Further, one of the top suppliers to the United States is now no longer able to give us oil. This is really rather unsettling for the whole continent. Don't worry though, cash for clunkers already fixed any potential problems Tongue out

ron45's picture
ron45
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Mar 12 2010
Posts: 40
Re: Mexican Oil

Sager, Mike, thanks for confirming that. Glad to hear Charles Bowden is not misinformed. 

 

Ron

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